Ejercicio 3 Metodos Cuantitativos

N° Bo B1 B2 1 1.6 5.0 - 2 2.2 5.0 1.0 3 1.4 5.0 - 4 1.9 10.0 - 5 2.4 10.0 - 6 2.6 10.0 1.0 7 2.3 15.0 - 8 2.7 15.0 - 9 2.8 15.0 1.0

10 2.6 20.0 - 11 2.9 20.0 - 12 3.1 20.0 1.0

28.5 150.0 4.0

Promedio 2.375

PASO 1 N S x1 |A| S x1 S x1^2

S x2 S x1*x2

12.0 150.0 150.0 2,250.0 4.0 50.0

+ 108,000.0 30,000.0 - 36,000.0 30,000.0

|A| 12,000

A11 (-1)^2 2,250.0 50.0

A12 (-1)^3 150.0 4.0

A13 (-1)^4 150.0 4.0

A21 (-1)^3 150.0 50.0

A22 (-1)^4 12.0 4.0

A23 (-1)^5 12.0 4.0

A31 (-1)^4 150.0 2,250.0

A32 (-1)^5 12.0 150.0

A33 (-1)^6 12.0 150.0

6,500.0 - 400.0 - 1,500.0

Adj t 1 |A|

A11 6,500.0 12,000.0

A12 - 400.0 12,000.0

A13 - 1,500.0 12,000.0

A21 - 400.0 12,000.0

A22 32.0 12,000.0

A11 A12 A13

A21 A22 A23 A31 A32 A33

1.0 5.0 1.0 5.0

1.0 5.0 1.0 10.0 1.0 10.0 1.0 10.0 1.0 15.0 1.0 15.0 1.0 15.0 1.0 20.0 1.0 20.0 1.0 20.0

VENTAS1.3

CALCULO ^y 1.3 0.0740

1 1.3 0.07402 1.3 0.07403 1.3 0.07404 1.3 0.07405 1.3 0.07406 1.3 0.07407 1.3 0.07408 1.3 0.07409 1.3 0.0740

10 1.3 0.074011 1.3 0.074012 1.3 0.0740

CALCULO SCR ^y Promedio

1 1.7 2.4 2 2.1 2.4 3 1.7 2.4 4 2.0 2.4 5 2.0 2.4 6 2.5 2.4 7 2.4 2.4 8 2.4 2.4 9 2.9 2.4

10 2.8 2.4 11 2.8 2.4 12 3.2 2.4

SCR

CALCULO SCE Y ^y

1 1.6 1.7 2 2.2 2.1 3 1.4 1.7 4 1.9 2.0 5 2.4 2.0 6 2.6 2.5 7 2.3 2.4 8 2.7 2.4 9 2.8 2.9

10 2.6 2.8 11 2.9 2.8 12 3.1 3.2

SCE

CALCULO SCT Y Promedio

1 1.6 2.4 2 2.2 2.4 3 1.4 2.4 4 1.9 2.4 5 2.4 2.4 6 2.6 2.4 7 2.3 2.4 8 2.7 2.4 9 2.8 2.4

10 2.6 2.4 11 2.9 2.4 12 3.1 2.4

SCT

Analisis de Varianza GL SC

Regresion 2.0 2.5935 Error 9.0 0.4090 Total 11.0 3.0025

MCR SCR 2.6 K 2.0

MCE SCE 0.4 n-k-1 9.0

F MCR 1.297 MCE 0.045

Varianza de los Residuos S^2 SCR 0.409

n-k-1 9.000

S 0.213

Var (B^0) 0.0 0.5417 Var (B^1) 0.0 0.00267 Var (B^2) 0.0 0.37500

R^2 SCR 2.6 SCT 3.0

R^2 a2 1-[(1-R^2)(n-1/n-k-1)] 0.848

Ecuacion de Regresion Estimada A) VENTAS ESP-

1.3 0.0740

X1^2 X2^2 x1*x2 y^1 25.00 - - 1.670 25.00 1 5 2.120 25.00 - - 1.670 100.00 - - 2.040 100.00 - - 2.040 100.00 1 10 2.490 225.00 - - 2.410 225.00 - - 2.410 225.00 1 15 2.860 400.00 - - 2.780 400.00 - - 2.780 400.00 1 20 3.230 2,250.00 4 50 28.500

S x2 N S x1 S x1*x2 S x1 S x1^2 S x2^2 S x2 S x1*x2

4.00 12.0 150.0 50.00 150.0 2,250.0 4.0 4.0 50.0

30,000.0 90,000.0

50.0 = 1.0 * 4.0

50.00 = - 1.0 4.00

2,250.0 1.0 50.0

4.0 - 1.0 4.0

4.00 1.0 4.00

150.0 - 1.0 50.0

4.0 1.0 50.0

4.00 - 1.0 50.00

150.0 1.0 2,250.0

- 400.00 - 1,500.00 32.00 - - 4,500.00

0.5416667 A23 - 12,000

-0.0333333 A31 - 1,500.0 12,000

-0.1250000 A32 - 12,000

-0.0333333 A33 4,500.00 12,000

0.0026667

0.54167 28.5 - 0.03333 384.0 - 0.12500 10.7

- 0.03333 0.00267 - - 0.12500 - 0.37500

- 1.6 1.0 2.2

- 1.4 - 1.9 - 2.4 1.0 2.6 - 2.3 - 2.7 1.0 2.8 - 2.6 - 2.9 1.0 3.1

ESP- UBIC0.0740 0.450

CALCULO ^y ESP- 0.450 UBIC ^y

5.0 0.450 - 1.7 5.0 0.450 1.0 2.1 5.0 0.450 - 1.7 10.0 0.450 - 2.0 10.0 0.450 - 2.0 10.0 0.450 1.0 2.5 15.0 0.450 - 2.4 15.0 0.450 - 2.4 15.0 0.450 1.0 2.9 20.0 0.450 - 2.8 20.0 0.450 - 2.8 20.0 0.450 1.0 3.2

28.5

2.59

0.497 0.065 0.497 0.112 0.112 0.013 0.001 0.001 0.235 0.164 0.164 0.731 2.594

0.41

0.005 0.006 0.073 0.020 0.130 0.012 0.012 0.084 0.004 0.032 0.014 0.017 0.409

3.003

0.601 0.031 0.951 0.226 0.001 0.051 0.006 0.106 0.181 0.051 0.276 0.526 3.00 3.00

Analisis de Varianza MC FC 1.2968 28.53 A11 0.0454 A12

A13A21

1.297 A22A23A31

0.045 A32A33

28.53

Varianza de los Residuos 0.045

0.024616 S^B0 0.157 0.000121 S^B1 0.011 0.017042 S^B2 0.131

0.863780183180683

Ecuacion de Regresion Estimada UBIC0.450

SCR SCE SCT0.497 0.005 0.6010.065 0.006 0.0310.497 0.073 0.9510.112 0.020 0.2260.112 0.130 0.0010.013 0.012 0.0510.001 0.012 0.0060.001 0.084 0.1060.235 0.004 0.1810.164 0.032 0.0510.164 0.014 0.2760.731 0.017 0.526

2.5935 0.4090 3.0025

9,000.00 2,500.00 6,500.00

600.00 200.00 - 400.00

7,500.00 9,000.00 - 1,500.00

600.00 200.00 - 400.00

48.00 16.00 32.00

600.00 600.00 -

7,500.00 9,000.00 - 1,500.00

600.00 600.00 -

27,000.00 22,500.00 4,500.00

0.0000000

-0.1250000

0.0000000

0.3750000

15.437 - 0.950 - 3.5625 - 12.800 1.024 - - 1.338 - 4.0125

1.3 0.0740 0.4500 VENTAS ESP- UBIC

1.6 8.0 - 2.2 11.0 2.2

1.4 7.0 - 1.9 19.0 - 2.4 24.0 - 2.6 26.0 2.6 2.3 34.5 - 2.7 40.5 - 2.8 42.0 2.8 2.6 52.0 - 2.9 58.0 - 3.1 62.0 3.1 28.5 384.0 10.7

0.54167-0.03333-0.12500-0.033330.002670.00000

-0.125000.000000.37500

N° Bo B1 B2 1 45.3 100.0 330.0 2 47.3 91.0 330.0 3 46.9 93.0 375.0 4 46.7 91.0 330.0 5 50.1 96.0 375.0 6 52.2 83.0 375.0 7 47.2 93.5 340.0 8 46 98.0 400.0 9 44 98.0 340.0

10 47.5 98.0 400.0 11 44.9 98.0 340.0 12 47.3 98.0 400.0 13 44.5 93.5 340.0 14 44.5 93.5 320.0 15 42.5 96.0 350.0 16 45.8 90.0 310.0 17 42.8 94.0 310.0 18 43.2 96.0 350.0 19 45.3 92.0 330.0 20 47.7 91.0 330.0

921.7 1,883.5 6,975.0

Promedio 46.085


S x2 S x1*x2

20.0 1,883.5 1,883.5 177,675.8 6,975.0 657,430.0

+ 8,700,337,288,125.0 8,636,929,099,875.0 - 8,644,036,284,843.8 8,644,284,098,000.0

|A| 87,897,438

A11 (-1)^2 177,675.8 657,430.0

A12 (-1)^3 1,883.5 6,975.0

A13 (-1)^4 1,883.5 6,975.0

A21 (-1)^3 1,883.5 657,430.0

A22 (-1)^4 20.0 6,975.0

A23 (-1)^5 20.0 6,975.0

A31 (-1)^4 1,883.5 177,675.8

A32 (-1)^5 20.0 1,883.5

A33 (-1)^6 20.0 1,883.5

2,802,659,506.3 - 25,940,062.5 - 1,018,951.3

Adj t 1 |A|

A11 2,802,659,506.3 87,897,437.5

A12 - 25,940,062.5 87,897,437.5

A13 - 1,018,951.3 87,897,437.5

A21 - 25,940,062.5 87,897,437.5

A22 316,875.0 87,897,437.5

A11 A12 A13

A21 A22 A23 A31 A32 A33

1.0 100.0 1.0 91.0 1.0 93.0 1.0 91.0 1.0 96.0 1.0 83.0 1.0 93.5 1.0 98.0 1.0 98.0 1.0 98.0 1.0 98.0 1.0 98.0 1.0 93.5 1.0 93.5 1.0 96.0 1.0 90.0 1.0 94.0 1.0 96.0 1.0 92.0 1.0 91.0

VELMAX65.0

CALCULO ^y 65.0 0.0511

1 65.0 0.05112 65.0 0.05113 65.0 0.0511

4 65.0 0.05115 65.0 0.05116 65.0 0.05117 65.0 0.05118 65.0 0.05119 65.0 0.0511

10 65.0 0.051111 65.0 0.051112 65.0 0.051113 65.0 0.051114 65.0 0.051115 65.0 0.051116 65.0 0.051117 65.0 0.051118 65.0 0.051119 65.0 0.051120 65.0 0.0511


1 42.9 46.1 2 46.4 46.1 3 47.9 46.1 4 46.4 46.1 5 46.7 46.1 6 51.8 46.1 7 45.9 46.1 8 47.2 46.1 9 44.1 46.1

10 47.2 46.1 11 44.1 46.1 12 47.2 46.1 13 45.9 46.1 14 44.9 46.1 15 45.4 46.1 16 45.7 46.1 17 44.2 46.1 18 45.4 46.1 19 46.0 46.1 20 46.4 46.1

SCR

CALCULO SCE Y ^y

1 45.3 42.9 2 47.3 46.4 3 46.9 47.9 4 46.7 46.4 5 50.1 46.7 6 52.2 51.8 7 47.2 45.9 8 46.0 47.2 9 44.0 44.1

10 47.5 47.2 11 44.9 44.1 12 47.3 47.2 13 44.5 45.9 14 44.5 44.9 15 42.5 45.4 16 45.8 45.7 17 42.8 44.2 18 43.2 45.4 19 45.3 46.0 20 47.7 46.4

SCE


1 45.3 46.1 2 47.3 46.1 3 46.9 46.1 4 46.7 46.1 5 50.1 46.1 6 52.2 46.1 7 47.2 46.1 8 46.0 46.1 9 44.0 46.1

10 47.5 46.1 11 44.9 46.1 12 47.3 46.1 13 44.5 46.1 14 44.5 46.1 15 42.5 46.1 16 45.8 46.1 17 42.8 46.1 18 43.2 46.1 19 45.3 46.1 20 47.7 46.1

SCT


Regresion 2.0 64.157 Error 17.0 43.269 Total 19.0 107.426

MCR SCR 64.2 K 2.0

MCE SCE 43.3 n-k-1 17.0

F MCR 32.078 MCE 2.545


n-k-1 17.000

S 1.595

Var (B^0) 2.5 31.8856 Var (B^1) 2.5 0.00361 Var (B^2) 2.5 0.00007

R^2 SCR 64.2 SCT 107.4

R^2 a2 1-[(1-R^2)(n-1/n-k-1)] 0.550

Ecuacion de Regresion Estimada A) VELMAX HP

65.0 0.0511

b) Svfara SV 609 manga 85 Pilgadas y Motor de 330 Caballos de Fuerza Estimar la Velocidad Maxima de la Svfara SV609

VEL. MAX 65 0.0511 48.702

X1^2 X2^2 x1*x2 y^1 10,000.00 108,900 33,000 42.858 8,281.00 108,900 30,030 46.364 8,649.00 140,625 34,875 47.883 8,281.00 108,900 30,030 46.364 9,216.00 140,625 36,000 46.714 6,889.00 140,625 31,125 51.779 8,742.25 115,600 31,790 45.901 9,604.00 160,000 39,200 47.212 9,604.00 115,600 33,320 44.148 9,604.00 160,000 39,200 47.212 9,604.00 115,600 33,320 44.148 9,604.00 160,000 39,200 47.212 8,742.25 115,600 31,790 45.901 8,742.25 102,400 29,920 44.880 9,216.00 122,500 33,600 45.438 8,100.00 96,100 27,900 45.733 8,836.00 96,100 29,140 44.174 9,216.00 122,500 33,600 45.438 8,464.00 108,900 30,360 45.975 8,281.00 108,900 30,030 46.364 177,675.75 2,448,375 657,430 921.700


6,975.00 20.0 1,883.5 657,430.00 1,883.5 177,675.8 2,448,375.0 6,975.0 657,430.0

8,636,929,099,875.0 8,685,787,207,593.8

657,430.0 = 1.0 * 2,448,375.0

657,430.00 = - 1.0 2,448,375.00

177,675.8 1.0 657,430.0

6,975.0 - 1.0 2,448,375.0

6,975.00 1.0 2,448,375.00

1,883.5 - 1.0 657,430.0

6,975.0 1.0 657,430.0

6,975.00 - 1.0 657,430.00

1,883.5 1.0 177,675.8

- 25,940,062.50 - 1,018,951.25 316,875.00 - 11,187.50 - 11,187.50 5,942.75

31.8855656 A23 - 11,187.50 87,897,438

-0.2951174 A31 - 1,018,951.3 87,897,438

-0.0115925 A32 - 11,187.50 87,897,438

-0.2951174 A33 5,942.75 87,897,438

0.0036051

31.88557 921.7- 0.29512 86713.9- 0.01159 322034

- 0.29512 0.00361 - 0.00013 - 0.01159 - 0.00013 0.00007

330.0 45.3 330.0 47.3 375.0 46.9 330.0 46.7 375.0 50.1 375.0 52.2 340.0 47.2 400.0 46 340.0 44 400.0 47.5 340.0 44.9 400.0 47.3 340.0 44.5 320.0 44.5 350.0 42.5 310.0 45.8 310.0 42.8 350.0 43.2 330.0 45.3 330.0 47.7

HP MANGA0.0511 -0.390

CALCULO ^y HP -0.390 Manga ^y

330.0 -0.390 100.0 42.9 330.0 -0.390 91.0 46.4 375.0 -0.390 93.0 47.9

330.0 -0.390 91.0 46.4 375.0 -0.390 96.0 46.7 375.0 -0.390 83.0 51.8 340.0 -0.390 93.5 45.9 400.0 -0.390 98.0 47.2 340.0 -0.390 98.0 44.1 400.0 -0.390 98.0 47.2 340.0 -0.390 98.0 44.1 400.0 -0.390 98.0 47.2 340.0 -0.390 93.5 45.9 320.0 -0.390 93.5 44.9 350.0 -0.390 96.0 45.4 310.0 -0.390 90.0 45.7 310.0 -0.390 94.0 44.2 350.0 -0.390 96.0 45.4 330.0 -0.390 92.0 46.0 330.0 -0.390 91.0 46.4

921.7

64.16

10.412 0.078 3.234 0.078 0.396 32.423 0.034 1.270 3.752 1.270 3.752 1.270 0.034 1.452 0.419 0.124 3.650 0.419 0.012 0.078 64.157

43.27

5.962 0.875 0.967 0.113 11.462 0.177 1.687 1.469 0.022 0.083 0.565 0.008 1.963 0.144 8.631 0.005 1.889 5.008 0.455 1.784 43.269

107.426

0.616 1.476 0.664 0.378 16.120 37.393 1.243 0.007 4.347 2.002 1.404 1.476 2.512 2.512 12.852 0.081 10.791 8.323 0.616 2.608 107.43 107.43


A13A21

32.078 A22A23A31

2.545 A32A33

12.60


81.155938 S^B0 9.009 0.009176 S^B1 0.096 0.000172 S^B2 0.013

0.597220169904296

Ecuacion de Regresion Estimada MANGA-0.390

Svfara SV 609 manga 85 Pilgadas y Motor de 330 Caballos de Fuerza

330.00 -0.390 85

SCR SCE SCT10.412 5.962 0.616

0.078 0.875 1.4763.234 0.967 0.6640.078 0.113 0.3780.396 11.462 16.120

32.423 0.177 37.3930.034 1.687 1.2431.270 1.469 0.0073.752 0.022 4.3471.270 0.083 2.0023.752 0.565 1.4041.270 0.008 1.4760.034 1.963 2.5121.452 0.144 2.5120.419 8.631 12.8520.124 0.005 0.0813.650 1.889 10.7910.419 5.008 8.3230.012 0.455 0.6160.078 1.784 2.608

64.157 43.269 107.426

435,016,864,406.25 432,214,204,900.00 2,802,659,506.25

4,611,514,312.50 4,585,574,250.00 - 25,940,062.50

1,238,269,405.00 1,239,288,356.25 - 1,018,951.25

4,611,514,312.50 4,585,574,250.00 - 25,940,062.50

48,967,500.00 48,650,625.00 316,875.00

13,148,600.00 13,137,412.50 - 11,187.50

1,238,269,405.00 1,239,288,356.25 - 1,018,951.25

13,148,600.00 13,137,412.50 - 11,187.50

3,553,515.00 3,547,572.25 5,942.75

-0.0001273

-0.0115925

-0.0001273

0.0000676

29,388.926 - 272.010 - 10.6848 - 25,590.780 312.608 - 11.0369 - 3,733.180 - 40.988 21.7727

65.0 - 0.390 0.0511 VELMAX MANGA HP

45.3 4,530.0 14,949.0 47.3 4,304.3 15,609.0 46.9 4,361.7 17,587.5 46.7 4,249.7 15,411.0 50.1 4,809.6 18,787.5 52.2 4,332.6 19,575.0 47.2 4,413.2 16,048.0 46.0 4,508.0 18,400.0 44.0 4,312.0 14,960.0 47.5 4,655.0 19,000.0 44.9 4,400.2 15,266.0 47.3 4,635.4 18,920.0 44.5 4,160.8 15,130.0 44.5 4,160.8 14,240.0 42.5 4,080.0 14,875.0 45.8 4,122.0 14,198.0 42.8 4,023.2 13,268.0 43.2 4,147.2 15,120.0 45.3 4,167.6 14,949.0 47.7 4,340.7 15,741.0 921.7 86,713.9 322,034.0

31.88557-0.29512-0.01159-0.295120.00361

-0.00013-0.01159-0.000130.00007

N° Bo B1 B2 1 973 - 40.0 2 1119 - 40.0 3 875 25.0 25.0 4 625 25.0 25.0 5 910 30.0 30.0 6 971 30.0 30.0 7 931 35.0 35.0 8 1177 35.0 35.0 9 882 40.0 25.0

10 982 40.0 25.0 11 1628 45.0 45.0 12 1577 45.0 45.0 13 1044 50.0 - 14 914 50.0 - 15 1329 55.0 25.0 16 1330 55.0 25.0 17 1405 60.0 30.0 18 1436 60.0 30.0 19 1521 65.0 35.0 20 1741 65.0 35.0 21 1866 70.0 40.0 22 1717 70.0 40.0

26953 950.0 660.0

Promedio 1,225.136


S x2 S x1*x2

22.0 950.0 950.0 49,250.0 660.0 28,050.0

+ 24,595,450,000.0 17,587,350,000.0 - 21,453,300,000.0 17,309,655,000.0

|A| 520,445,000

A11 (-1)^2 49,250.0

28,050.0

A12 (-1)^3 950.0 660.0

A13 (-1)^4 950.0 660.0

A21 (-1)^3 950.0 28,050.0

A22 (-1)^4 22.0 660.0

A23 (-1)^5 22.0 660.0

A31 (-1)^4 950.0 49,250.0

A32 (-1)^5 22.0 950.0

A33 (-1)^6 22.0 950.0

331,172,500.0 - 3,052,000.0 - 5,857,500.0

Adj t 1 |A|

A11 331,172,500.0 520,445,000.0

A12 - 3,052,000.0 520,445,000.0

A13 - 5,857,500.0 520,445,000.0

A21 - 3,052,000.0 520,445,000.0

A22 63,800.0 520,445,000.0

A11 A12 A13

A21 A22 A23 A31 A32 A33

1.0 - 1.0 - 1.0 25.0 1.0 25.0 1.0 30.0 1.0 30.0 1.0 35.0 1.0 35.0 1.0 40.0 1.0 40.0 1.0 45.0 1.0 45.0 1.0 50.0 1.0 50.0 1.0 55.0 1.0 55.0 1.0 60.0 1.0 60.0 1.0 65.0 1.0 65.0 1.0 70.0 1.0 70.0

VENTAS156.4

CALCULO ^y

156.4 13.08071 156.4 13.0807 2 156.4 13.0807 3 156.4 13.0807 4 156.4 13.0807 5 156.4 13.0807 6 156.4 13.0807 7 156.4 13.0807 8 156.4 13.0807 9 156.4 13.0807

10 156.4 13.0807 11 156.4 13.0807 12 156.4 13.0807 13 156.4 13.0807 14 156.4 13.0807 15 156.4 13.0807 16 156.4 13.0807 17 156.4 13.0807 18 156.4 13.0807 19 156.4 13.0807 20 156.4 13.0807 21 156.4 13.0807 22 156.4 13.0807


1 828.24 1,225.1 2 828.24 1,225.1 3 903.33 1,225.1 4 903.33 1,225.1 5 1052.71 1,225.1 6 1052.71 1,225.1 7 1202.09 1,225.1 8 1202.09 1,225.1 9 1099.54 1,225.1

10 1099.54 1,225.1 11 1500.85 1,225.1 12 1500.85 1,225.1 13 810.46 1,225.1 14 810.46 1,225.1 15 1295.75 1,225.1 16 1295.75 1,225.1 17 1445.13 1,225.1 18 1445.13 1,225.1

19 1594.51 1,225.1 20 1594.51 1,225.1 21 1743.89 1,225.1 22 1743.89 1,225.1

SCR

CALCULO SCE Y ^y

1 973.0 828.24 2 1,119.0 828.24 3 875.0 903.33 4 625.0 903.33 5 910.0 1,052.71 6 971.0 1,052.71 7 931.0 1,202.09 8 1,177.0 1,202.09 9 882.0 1,099.54

10 982.0 1,099.54 11 1,628.0 1,500.85 12 1,577.0 1,500.85 13 1,044.0 810.46 14 914.0 810.46 15 1,329.0 1,295.75 16 1,330.0 1,295.75 17 1,405.0 1,445.13 18 1,436.0 1,445.13 19 1,521.0 1,594.51 20 1,741.0 1,594.51 21 1,866.0 1,743.89 22 1,717.0 1,743.89

SCE


1 973.0 1,225.1 2 1,119.0 1,225.1 3 875.0 1,225.1 4 625.0 1,225.1 5 910.0 1,225.1 6 971.0 1,225.1 7 931.0 1,225.1 8 1,177.0 1,225.1 9 882.0 1,225.1

10 982.0 1,225.1

11 1,628.0 1,225.1 12 1,577.0 1,225.1 13 1,044.0 1,225.1 14 914.0 1,225.1 15 1,329.0 1,225.1 16 1,330.0 1,225.1 17 1,405.0 1,225.1 18 1,436.0 1,225.1 19 1,521.0 1,225.1 20 1,741.0 1,225.1 21 1,866.0 1,225.1 22 1,717.0 1,225.1

SCT


Regresion 2.0 2,028,033 Error 19.0 479,760 Total 21.0 2,507,793

MCR SCR 2,028,033 K 2.0

MCE SCE 479,760 n-k-1 19.0

F MCR 1,014,016.345 MCE 25,251

Varianza de los Residuos S^2 SCR 479,759.901

n-k-1 19

S 158.904

Var (B^0) 25,251 0.6363 Var (B^1) 25,251 0.00012 Var (B^2) 25,251 0.00035

R^2 SCR 2,028,032.7

SCT 2,507,792.6

R^2 a2 1-[(1-R^2)(n-1/n-k-1)] 0.789

Ecuacion de Regresion A) VENTAS RADIOS

156.4 13.1

b) Interprete el significado de las pendientes B1 y B2 en este problema

B1 1.759

B2 2.963

c) Coeficiente el significado del coeficiente de Regresion B0

B0 126.8

D) Elabore un pronostico de ventas para una ciudad en la que la publicidad en radio sumo US$ 20.000 y la Publicidad en periodicos tambien susmo US$ 20.000

Anuncios en Radios [MUS$) 20.0 -

156.4 13.1 753.95 828.24

E) Elabore una estimacion del Intervalo de Confianza del 95% para la media de las ventas correspondientes a las ciudades en las que la publicidad en radio alcanzo US$ 20.000 y la publicidad en periodicos fue de US$ 20.000

F) Elabore una estimacion del Intervalo de Confianza del 95% para la media de las ventas en una ciudad donde la publicidad en radio alcanzo US$ 20.000 y la publicidad en periodicos fue de US$ 20.000

G) Calcule el coeficiente de Determinacion Ajustado

R^2 a2 1-[(1-R^2)(n-1/n-k-1)]

H) Realice el constraste conjunto de los estimadores

I) Realice el constraste individual de los estimadores

X1^2 X2^2 x1*x2 y^1 - 1,600 - 828.242 - 1,600 - 828.242 625.00 625 625 903.329 625.00 625 625 903.329 900.00 900 900 1052.709 900.00 900 900 1052.709 1,225.00 1,225 1,225 1202.089 1,225.00 1,225 1,225 1202.089 1,600.00 625 1,000 1099.540 1,600.00 625 1,000 1099.540 2,025.00 2,025 2,025 1500.849 2,025.00 2,025 2,025 1500.849 2,500.00 - - 810.464 2,500.00 - - 810.464 3,025.00 625 1,375 1295.750 3,025.00 625 1,375 1295.750 3,600.00 900 1,800 1445.130 3,600.00 900 1,800 1445.130 4,225.00 1,225 2,275 1594.509 4,225.00 1,225 2,275 1594.509 4,900.00 1,600 2,800 26953.000 4,900.00 1,600 2,800 0.000 49,250.0 22,700.0 28,050.0 50,418.2


660.00 22.0 950.0 28,050.00 950.0 49,250.0 22,700.0 660.0 28,050.0

17,587,350,000.0 20,486,750,000.0

28,050.0 = 1.0 *

22,700.0

28,050.00 = - 1.0 22,700.00

49,250.0 1.0 28,050.0

660.0 - 1.0 22,700.0

660.00 1.0 22,700.00

950.0 - 1.0 28,050.0

660.0 1.0 28,050.0

660.00 - 1.0 28,050.00

950.0 1.0 49,250.0

- 3,052,000.00 - 5,857,500.00 63,800.00 9,900.00 9,900.00 181,000.00

0.6363256 A23 9,900.00 520,445,000

-0.0058642 A31 - 5,857,500.0 520,445,000

-0.0112548 A32 9,900.00 520,445,000

-0.0058642 A33 181,000.00 520,445,000

0.0001226

0.63633 26,953.0 - 0.00586 1,263,940.0 - 0.01125 851,410.0

- 0.00586 0.00012 0.00002 - 0.01125 0.00002 0.00035

40.0 973 40.0 1119 25.0 875 25.0 625 30.0 910 30.0 971 35.0 931 35.0 1177 25.0 882 25.0 982 45.0 1628 45.0 1577 - 1044 - 914 25.0 1329 25.0 1330 30.0 1405 30.0 1436 35.0 1521 35.0 1741 40.0 1866 40.0 1717

RADIOS PERIODICOS13.1 16.8

CALCULO ^y

16.795 ^y - 16.795 40.0 828.2 - 16.795 40.0 828.2 25.0 16.795 25.0 903.3 25.0 16.795 25.0 903.3 30.0 16.795 30.0 1,052.7 30.0 16.795 30.0 1,052.7 35.0 16.795 35.0 1,202.1 35.0 16.795 35.0 1,202.1 40.0 16.795 25.0 1,099.5 40.0 16.795 25.0 1,099.5 45.0 16.795 45.0 1,500.8 45.0 16.795 45.0 1,500.8 50.0 16.795 - 810.5 50.0 16.795 - 810.5 55.0 16.795 25.0 1,295.7 55.0 16.795 25.0 1,295.7 60.0 16.795 30.0 1,445.1 60.0 16.795 30.0 1,445.1 65.0 16.795 35.0 1,594.5 65.0 16.795 35.0 1,594.5 70.0 16.795 40.0 1,743.9 70.0 16.795 40.0 1,743.9

26,953.0

2,028,032.69

157,525.487 157,525.487 103,559.715 103,559.715 29,731.125 29,731.125 531.181 531.181 15,774.541 15,774.541 76,017.232 76,017.232 171,952.769 171,952.769 4,986.263 4,986.263 48,397.039 48,397.039

136,436.462 136,436.462 269,104.531 269,104.531 2,028,033

479,759.90

20,955.007 84,540.472 802.555 77,467.261 20,365.917 6,676.394 73,489.246 629.458 47,323.488 13,815.563 16,167.481 5,799.037 54,538.838 10,719.603 1,105.573 1,173.074 1,610.388 83.350 5,403.636 21,459.487 14,911.041 723.030 479,760

2,507,792.591

63,572.746 11,264.928 122,595.473 360,163.655 99,310.928 64,585.291 86,516.200 2,317.110 117,742.564 59,115.291

162,299.110 123,808.019 32,810.382 96,805.837 10,787.655 10,996.382 32,350.928 44,463.473 87,535.291 266,115.291 410,706.200 241,929.837 2,507,793 2,507,792.59

Analisis de Varianza MC FC 1,014,016 40.16 A11 25,251 A12

A13A21

1,014,016 A22A23A31

25,251 A32A33

40.16

Varianza de los Residuos 25,251

16,067.554126 S^B0 126.758 3.095396 S^B1 1.759 8.781609 S^B2 2.963

0.809 80.9

78.9

Ecuacion de Regresion PERIODICOS

16.8

Interprete el significado de las pendientes B1 y B2 en este problema

Invertir en Radios

Elabore un pronostico de ventas para una ciudad en la que la publicidad en radio sumo US$ 20.000 y la Publicidad en periodicos tambien susmo US$ 20.000

Anuncios en Periodicos [MUS$) 20.0 40.00

16.8

Elabore una estimacion del Intervalo de Confianza del 95% para la media de las ventas correspondientes a las ciudades en las que la publicidad en radio alcanzo US$ 20.000 y la publicidad en periodicos fue de US$ 20.000

Elabore una estimacion del Intervalo de Confianza del 95% para la media de las ventas en una ciudad donde la publicidad en radio alcanzo US$ 20.000 y la publicidad en periodicos fue de US$ 20.000

0.79 78.9

SCR SCE SCT157525.487 20955.007 63572.746157525.487 84540.472 11264.928103559.715 802.555 122595.473103559.715 77467.261 360163.655

29731.125 20365.917 99310.92829731.125 6676.394 64585.291

531.181 73489.246 86516.200531.181 629.458 2317.110

15774.541 47323.488 117742.56415774.541 13815.563 59115.29176017.232 16167.481 162299.11076017.232 5799.037 123808.019

171952.769 54538.838 32810.382171952.769 10719.603 96805.837

4986.263 1105.573 10787.6554986.263 1173.074 10996.382

48397.039 1610.388 32350.92848397.039 83.350 44463.473

136436.462 5403.636 87535.291136436.462 21459.487 266115.291

2028032.690 479759.901 2507792.5910.000 0.000 0.000

3,517,856.3 943,885.7 4,362,949.1

1,117,975,000.00 786,802,500.00 331,172,500.00

21,565,000.00 18,513,000.00 - 3,052,000.00

26,647,500.00 32,505,000.00 - 5,857,500.00

21,565,000.00 18,513,000.00 - 3,052,000.00

499,400.00 435,600.00 63,800.00

617,100.00 627,000.00 9,900.00

26,647,500.00 32,505,000.00 - 5,857,500.00

617,100.00 627,000.00 9,900.00

1,083,500.00 902,500.00 181,000.00

0.0000190

-0.0112548

0.0000190

0.0003478

17,150.885 - 158.058 - 303.3504 - 7,412.013 154.943 24.0429 - 9,582.442 16.196 296.1028

156.4 13.1 16.8 VENTAS RADIOS PERIODICOS

973.0 - 38,920.0 1,119.0 - 44,760.0 875.0 21,875.0 21,875.0 625.0 15,625.0 15,625.0 910.0 27,300.0 27,300.0 971.0 29,130.0 29,130.0 931.0 32,585.0 32,585.0 1,177.0 41,195.0 41,195.0 882.0 35,280.0 22,050.0 982.0 39,280.0 24,550.0 1,628.0 73,260.0 73,260.0 1,577.0 70,965.0 70,965.0 1,044.0 52,200.0 - 914.0 45,700.0 - 1,329.0 73,095.0 33,225.0 1,330.0 73,150.0 33,250.0 1,405.0 84,300.0 42,150.0 1,436.0 86,160.0 43,080.0 1,521.0 98,865.0 53,235.0 1,741.0 113,165.0 60,935.0 1,866.0 130,620.0 74,640.0 1,717.0 120,190.0 68,680.0 26,953.0 1,263,940.0 851,410.0

0.63633-0.00586-0.01125-0.005860.000120.00002

-0.011250.000020.00035

N° Bo B1 B2 1 9.3 100.0 4.0 2 4.8 50.0 3.0 3 8.9 100.0 4.0 4 6.5 100.0 2.0 5 4.2 50.0 2.0 6 6.2 80.0 2.0 7 7.4 75.0 3.0 8 6 65.0 4.0 9 7.6 90.0 3.0

10 6.1 90.0 2.0 67 800.0 29.0

Promedio 6.700


S x2 S x1*x2

10.0 800.0 800.0 67,450.0 29.0 2,345.0

+ 61,379,500.0 54,404,000.0 - 56,725,450.0 54,990,250.0

|A| 231,800

A11 (-1)^2 67,450.0 2,345.0

A12 (-1)^3 800.0 29.0

A13 (-1)^4 800.0 29.0

A21 (-1)^3 800.0 2,345.0

A22 (-1)^4 10.0 29.0

A23 (-1)^5 10.0

29.0

A31 (-1)^4 800.0 67,450.0

A32 (-1)^5 10.0 800.0

A33 (-1)^6 10.0 800.0

638,925.0 - 4,795.0 - 80,050.0

Adj t 1 |A|

A11 638,925.0 231,800.0

A12 - 4,795.0 231,800.0

A13 - 80,050.0 231,800.0

A21 - 4,795.0 231,800.0

A22 69.0 231,800.0

A11 A12 A13

A21 A22 A23 A31 A32 A33

1.0 100.0 1.0 50.0 1.0 100.0 1.0 100.0

1.0 50.0 1.0 80.0 1.0 75.0 1.0 65.0 1.0 90.0 1.0 90.0

VENTAS-0.869

CALCULO ^y -0.9 0.0611

1 -0.9 0.0611 2 -0.9 0.0611 3 -0.9 0.0611 4 -0.9 0.0611 5 -0.9 0.0611 6 -0.9 0.0611 7 -0.9 0.0611 8 -0.9 0.0611 9 -0.9 0.0611

10 -0.9 0.0611


1 8.94 6.7 2 4.96 6.7 3 8.94 6.7 4 7.09 6.7 5 4.03 6.7 6 5.87 6.7 7 6.49 6.7 8 6.80 6.7 9 7.40 6.7

10 6.48 6.7 SCR

CALCULO SCE Y ^y

1 9.3 8.94 2 4.8 4.96 3 8.9 8.94 4 6.5 7.09 5 4.2 4.03

6 6.2 5.87 7 7.4 6.49 8 6.0 6.80 9 7.6 7.40

10 6.1 6.48 SCE


1 9.3 6.7 2 4.8 6.7 3 8.9 6.7 4 6.5 6.7 5 4.2 6.7 6 6.2 6.7 7 7.4 6.7 8 6.0 6.7 9 7.6 6.7

10 6.1 6.7 SCT


Regresion 2.0 22 Error 7.0 2 Total 9.0 24

MCR SCR 22 K 2.0

MCE SCE 2 n-k-1 7.0

F MCR 10.800 MCE 0


n-k-1 7

S 0.573

Var (B^0) 0 2.7564 Var (B^1) 0 0.00030

Var (B^2) 0 0.14884

R^2 SCR 21.6 SCT 23.9

R^2 a2 1-[(1-R^2)(n-1/n-k-1)] 0.894


-0.869 0.061


B1 0.010

B2 0.221


B0 1.0



-0.9 0.1 18.82 36.07




R^2 a2 1-[(1-R^2)(n-1/n-k-1)]



X1^2 X2^2 x1*x2 y^1 10,000.00 16 400 8.938 2,500.00 9 150 4.958 10,000.00 16 400 8.938 10,000.00 4 200 7.092 2,500.00 4 100 4.035 6,400.00 4 160 5.869 5,625.00 9 225 6.487 4,225.00 16 260 6.799 8,100.00 9 270 7.404 8,100.00 4 180 6.480 67,450.0 91.0 2,345.0 67.0


29.00 10.0 800.0 2,345.00 800.0 67,450.0 91.0 29.0 2,345.0

54,404,000.0 58,240,000.0

2,345.0 = 1.0 * 91.0

2,345.00 = - 1.0 91.00

67,450.0 1.0 2,345.0

29.0 - 1.0 91.0

29.00 1.0 91.00

800.0 - 1.0

2,345.0

29.0 1.0 2,345.0

29.00 - 1.0 2,345.00

800.0 1.0 67,450.0

- 4,795.00 - 80,050.00 69.00 - 250.00 - 250.00 34,500.00

2.7563632 A23 - 250.00 231,800

-0.0206859 A31 - 80,050.0 231,800

-0.3453408 A32 - 250.00 231,800

-0.0206859 A33 34,500.00 231,800

0.0002977

2.75636 67.0 - 0.02069 5,594.0 - 0.34534 202.2

- 0.02069 0.00030 - 0.00108 - 0.34534 - 0.00108 0.14884

4.0 9.3 3.0 4.8 4.0 8.9 2.0 6.5

2.0 4.2 2.0 6.2 3.0 7.4 4.0 6 3.0 7.6 2.0 6.1

RADIOS PERIODICOS0.061 0.923

CALCULO ^y 0.923 ^y

100.0 0.923 4.0 8.9 50.0 0.923 3.0 5.0 100.0 0.923 4.0 8.9 100.0 0.923 2.0 7.1 50.0 0.923 2.0 4.0 80.0 0.923 2.0 5.9 75.0 0.923 3.0 6.5 65.0 0.923 4.0 6.8 90.0 0.923 3.0 7.4 90.0 0.923 2.0 6.5

67.0

21.60

5.011 3.034 5.011 0.153 7.103 0.691 0.046 0.010 0.495 0.048 22

2.30

0.131 0.025 0.001 0.350 0.027

0.110 0.834 0.638 0.039 0.145 2.3

23.900

6.760 3.610 4.840 0.040 6.250 0.250 0.490 0.490 0.810 0.360 23.90 23.90


A13A21

10.80 A22A23A31

0.33 A32A33

32.88


0.905443 S^B0 0.952 0.000098 S^B1 0.010

0.048891 S^B2 0.221

0.904 90.4

89.4


0.923


Invertir en Radios



0.9



0.79 78.9

SCR SCE SCT5.011 0.131 6.7603.034 0.025 3.6105.011 0.001 4.8400.153 0.350 0.0407.103 0.027 6.2500.691 0.110 0.2500.046 0.834 0.4900.010 0.638 0.4900.495 0.039 0.8100.048 0.145 0.360

21.6 2.3 23.9

6,137,950.00 5,499,025.00 638,925.00

72,800.00 68,005.00 - 4,795.00

1,876,000.00 1,956,050.00 - 80,050.00

72,800.00 68,005.00 - 4,795.00

910.00 841.00 69.00

23,450.00 23,200.00 - 250.00

1,876,000.00 1,956,050.00 - 80,050.00

23,450.00 23,200.00 - 250.00

674,500.00 640,000.00 34,500.00

-0.0010785

-0.3453408

-0.0010785

0.1488352

184.676 - 1.386 - 23.1378 - 115.717 1.665 - 6.0332 - 69.828 - 0.218 30.0945

- 0.869 0.061 0.923 VENTAS RADIOS PERIODICOS

9.3 930.0 37.2 4.8 240.0 14.4 8.9 890.0 35.6 6.5 650.0 13.0

4.2 210.0 8.4 6.2 496.0 12.4 7.4 555.0 22.2 6.0 390.0 24.0 7.6 684.0 22.8 6.1 549.0 12.2 67.0 5,594.0 202.2

2.75636-0.02069-0.34534-0.020690.00030

-0.00108-0.34534-0.001080.14884

N° Bo B1 B2 1 28 74.0 5.0 2 33 87.0 11.0 3 21 69.0 4.0 4 40 93.0 9.0 5 38 81.0 7.0 6 46 97.0 10.0

206 501.0 46.0

Promedio 34.333


S x2 S x1*x2

6.0 501.0 501.0 42,425.0 46.0 3,977.0

+ 99,783,600.0 91,653,942.0 - 89,771,300.0 94,899,174.0

|A| 28,618

A11 (-1)^2 42,425.0 3,977.0

A12 (-1)^3 501.0 46.0

A13 (-1)^4 501.0 46.0

A21 (-1)^3 501.0 3,977.0

A22 (-1)^4 6.0 46.0

A23 (-1)^5 6.0 46.0

A31 (-1)^4 501.0 42,425.0

A32 (-1)^5 6.0 501.0

A33 (-1)^6 6.0 501.0

814,071.0 - 13,450.0 40,927.0

Adj t 1 |A|

A11 814,071.0 28,618.0

A12 - 13,450.0 28,618.0

A13 40,927.0 28,618.0

A21 - 13,450.0 28,618.0

A22 236.0 28,618.0

A11 A12 A13

A21 A22 A23 A31 A32 A33

1.0 74.0 1.0 87.0 1.0 69.0 1.0 93.0 1.0 81.0 1.0 97.0

VENTAS-43.675

CALCULO ^y -43.7 1.0484

1 -43.7 1.0484 2 -43.7 1.0484 3 -43.7 1.0484 4 -43.7 1.0484 5 -43.7 1.0484 6 -43.7 1.0484


1 27.69 34.3 2 33.86 34.3 3 23.69 34.3 4 42.64 34.3 5 32.54 34.3 6 45.59 34.3

SCR

CALCULO SCE Y ^y

1 28.0 27.69 2 33.0 33.86 3 21.0 23.69 4 40.0 42.64 5 38.0 32.54 6 46.0 45.59

SCE


1 28.0 34.3 2 33.0 34.3 3 21.0 34.3 4 40.0 34.3 5 38.0 34.3 6 46.0 34.3

SCT


Regresion 2.0 356.35 Error 3.0 44.99 Total 5.0 401

MCR SCR 356 K 2.0

MCE SCE 45 n-k-1 3.0

F MCR 178.173 MCE 15


n-k-1 3

S 3.872

Var (B^0) 15 28.4461 Var (B^1) 15 0.00825 Var (B^2) 15 0.12401

R^2 SCR 356.3 SCT 401.3

R^2 a2 1-[(1-R^2)(n-1/n-k-1)] 0.876


-43.7 1.0


B1 0.352

B2 1.364


B0 20.7



-43.7 1.0- 47.58 - 93.42




R^2 a2 1-[(1-R^2)(n-1/n-k-1)]



X1^2 X2^2 x1*x2 y^1 5,476.00 25 370 27.690 7,569.00 121 957 33.857 4,761.00 16 276 23.691 8,649.00 81 837 42.635 6,561.00 49 567 32.541 9,409.00 100 970 45.585 42,425.0 392.0 3,977.0 206.0


46.00 6.0 501.0 3,977.00 501.0 42,425.0 392.0 46.0 3,977.0

91,653,942.0 98,392,392.0

3,977.0 = 1.0 * 392.0

3,977.00 = - 1.0 392.00

42,425.0 1.0 3,977.0

46.0 - 1.0 392.0

46.00 1.0 392.00

501.0 - 1.0 3,977.0

46.0 1.0 3,977.0

46.00 - 1.0 3,977.00

501.0 1.0 42,425.0

- 13,450.00 40,927.00 236.00 - 816.00 - 816.00 3,549.00

28.4461178 A23 - 816.00 28,618

-0.4699839 A31 40,927.0 28,618

1.4301139 A32 - 816.00 28,618

-0.4699839 A33 3,549.00 28,618

0.0082466

28.44612 206.0 - 0.46998 17,652.0 1.43011 1,673.0

- 0.46998 0.00825 - 0.02851 1.43011 - 0.02851 0.12401

5.0 28 11.0 33 4.0 21 9.0 40 7.0 38 10.0 46

RADIOS PERIODICOS1.048 -1.244

CALCULO ^y -1.244 ^y

74.0 -1.244 5.0 27.7 87.0 -1.244 11.0 33.9 69.0 -1.244 4.0 23.7 93.0 -1.244 9.0 42.6 81.0 -1.244 7.0 32.5 97.0 -1.244 10.0 45.6

206.0

356.35

44.136 0.227 113.250 68.920 3.211 126.603 356

44.99

0.096 0.735 7.244 6.944 29.796 0.172 45

401.333

40.111 1.778 177.778 32.111 13.444 136.111 401 401.33


A13A21

178 A22A23A31

15 A32A33

11.88

Varianza de los Residuos 15

426.566193 S^B0 20.653 0.123662 S^B1 0.352 1.859645 S^B2 1.364

0.888 88.8

87.6


-1.2


Invertir en Radios



-1.2



0.79 78.9

SCR SCE SCT44.136 0.096 40.111

0.227 0.735 1.778113.250 7.244 177.778

68.920 6.944 32.1113.211 29.796 13.444

126.603 0.172 136.111 356.3466 44.9868 401.33

16,630,600.00 15,816,529.00 814,071.00

196,392.00 182,942.00 - 13,450.00

1,992,477.00 1,951,550.00 40,927.00

196,392.00 182,942.00 - 13,450.00

2,352.00 2,116.00 236.00

23,862.00 23,046.00 - 816.00

1,992,477.00 1,951,550.00 40,927.00

23,862.00 23,046.00 - 816.00

254,550.00 251,001.00 3,549.00

-0.0285135

1.4301139

-0.0285135

0.1240129

5,859.900 - 96.817 294.6035 - 8,296.156 145.568 - 503.3207 2,392.581 - 47.703 207.4735

- 43.6754 1.0484 - 1.2437 Evaluacion Prueba Experiencia trabajos

28.0 2,072.0 140.0 33.0 2,871.0 363.0 21.0 1,449.0 84.0 40.0 3,720.0 360.0 38.0 3,078.0 266.0 46.0 4,462.0 460.0 206.0 17,652.0 1,673.0

28.44612-0.469981.43011

-0.469980.00825

-0.028511.43011

-0.028510.12401

Ejercicio 3 Metodos Cuantitativos

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