Post on 27-Jun-2015
description
Mauricio CárdenasBogotá, septiembre 8 de 2011
La Década de América Latina y el Caribe:
Una Oportunidad Real
América Latina y China (2009)
Pobl
ació
n en
mill
ones
PIB
(bill
ones
de
dóla
res
actu
ales
)
Población PIB (USD)
Fuente: World Bank, World Development Indicators (2009)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.819
00
1906
1912
1918
1924
1930
1936
1942
1948
1954
1960
1966
1972
1978
1984
1990
1996
2002
2008
GDP Per Capita of Selected Regions / US GDP per Capita
LAC/ US
Asian Tigers/ US
Gold Standard Period
Interwar Period
US Recovers
Alliance for
Progress
Imports Substitution
Lost Decade
Washington Consensus
Washington Dissensus
Fuente: Maddison (2009).
¿Comenzará América Latina a cerrar la brecha?
Siete países en la región poseen más del 80% de la población y del PIB
Fuente: World Bank, World Development Indicators (2009)
PIB (USD) LAC &LAC7
GD
P (B
illio
ns c
urre
nt U
SD)
Poblaciones LAC &LAC7
Popu
latio
n in
Mill
ions
3607
Introducción China y América LatinaDemografía y clase mediaNo somos todos igualesReflexiones finales
Contenido
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 By Product (Top 6)
Iron Ore 0 1 2 18 79 Motor Vehiclesa 1 2 1 5 31 Grain 2 4 - - 28 Rolled Steel 3 7 9 25 20 Parts of Motor Vehiclesb 0 1 2 7 19 Cars 0 0 0 3 14
By Sector (Top 6)
Machinery and Transport Eq. 17 53 92 290 550 Non Food Raw Materials 4 10 20 70 211 Mineral Fuelsc 1 5 21 64 189 Chemicalsd 7 17 30 78 150 Light, textile, rubber, minerals, iron 9 29 42 81 131 Miscellaneous 2 8 13 61 114
By Region
Asia 29 78 141 441 835 Europe 13 28 41 96 218 North America 8 19 26 56 117 Latin America 2 3 5 27 91 Africa 0 1 6 21 67
Memorandum Composition of China's Industrial Output (percent)
Heavy Industry 51 53 60 68 71 Light Industry 49 47 40 30 29
Importaciones de la China (miles de millones de dólares)
Source: General Administration of Customs; CEIC Note: Top 6 products and sectors as of 2010 a Motor vehicles and chassis; b Parts of motor vehicles and tractors; c Mineral fuels, lubricants, and others; d Chemicals and allied products.
China’s Exports to: China’s Imports from: China’s Trade Balance
with: 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 Argentina 0.0 0.6 6.1 0.3 0.9 6.8 -0.3 -0.3 -0.7
Brazil 0.1 1.2 24.5 0.5 1.6 38.0 -0.4 -0.4 -13.6 Chile 0.1 0.8 8.0 0.0 1.3 17.8 0.0 -0.6 -9.7 Colombia 0.0 0.2 3.8 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.1 1.7 Mexico 0.1 1.3 17.9 0.1 0.5 6.8 0.0 0.8 11.1 Peru 0.0 0.1 3.6 0.1 0.6 6.1 -0.1 -0.4 -2.6 Uruguay 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.1 0.1 1.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 Venezuela 0.0 0.3 3.6 0.0 0.1 6.6 0.0 0.2 -2.9
Comercio entre China y LAC8 (miles de millones US)
Note: All numbers are in billions of USD. Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics
Exportaciones a China (% del total exportado)
Source: UN COMTRADENote: LAC7 series is average the seven individual economies
Imports from Argentina Exports to Argentina (USD Millions) (USD Millions)
Comercio con China: Argentina
Source: General Administration of Customs; CEICNote: 12-month rolling sums
Imports from Brazil Exports to Brazil (USD Millions) (USD Millions)
Source: General Administration of Customs; CEICNote: 12-month rolling sums
Comercio con China: Brasil
Imports from Chile Exports to Chile (USD Millions) (USD Millions)
Source: General Administration of Customs; CEICNote: 12-month rolling sums
Comercio con China: Chile
Mining Manufacturing Services Othera
Output Employment Output Employment Output Employment Output Employment
Argentina 0.2 -0.1 -1.8 -6.3 -0.9 10.3 2.5 -3.9 Brazil 0.6 -0.1 -0.2 -2.4 -4.3 10.6 3.9 -8.1 Chile 0.8 -1.7 -3.4 -6.0 3.0 13.7 -0.4 -6.1 Colombia 0.5 -0.1 -1.5 -2.4 5.0 8.6 -4.0 -6.1 Mexico -0.2 -0.5 0.1 -2.6 1.5 9.1 -1.5 -6.1 Peru 2.4 -0.1 -0.4 -2.5 -3.8 0.6 1.7 2.0 Venezuela 1.4 0.1 -2.8 -5.4 1.7 8.3 -0.3 -3.0
Cambios en las participaciones sectoriales en el producto y el empleo, 2005 vs. 1990
Source: Timmer and Vries (2009) aAgriculture, public utilities, construction
Mining Manufacturing Services Othera Overall Argentina 5.9 4.4 1.0 4.7 2.1 Brazil 4.1 1.2 -1.4 2.2 0.2 Chile 8.6 4.3 1.5 5.1 2.8 Colombia 1.2 0.1 -0.7 0.7 -0.2 Mexico 5.0 2.1 0.1 2.1 1.1 Peru 6.8 4.7 2.4 3.4 2.9 Venezuela 0.2 2.4 -0.7 1.5 -0.1
Crecimiento promedio anual en el producto por trabajador 1990-2005
Source: Timmer and Vries (2009) aAgriculture, public utilities, construction
Mining to Services Manufacturing to Services 1990 2005 1990 2005 Argentina 5.0 9.7 1.3 2.2 Brazil 3.2 6.9 1.2 1.9 Chile 2.9 8.4 1.3 2.0 Colombia 3.4 4.4 1.4 1.7 Mexico 1.4 2.9 0.8 1.1 Peru 3.2 5.7 1.2 1.6 Venezuela 19.6 22.0 2.2 3.3
Source: Timmer and Vries (2009)
Producto por trabajador en la minería y la industria (relativo a los servicios)
Participación de la industria manufacturera en el PIB
Source: Haver; National Official StatisticsNote: Mexico, Peru, Uruguay not seasonally adjusted. Brazil based on nominal data.
LAC: Exportaciones manufactureras por clasificación tecnológica (% exportaciones manufactureras)
Source: Comtrade and own calculation.Note: The technological classification in Resource Based (RB), Low Technology (LT), Medium Technology (MT) and HighTechnology (HT) comes from Lall (2000).
Políticas de Desarrollo Productivo
R&D subsidies Training programs Tax exemption for capital goods High uniform tariffs
Business Climate Educated labor force Basic Infrastructure
Sector-specific quotas Sector - specific subsidies to promote some sector
Rural roads for certain areas Cold storage logistics Food safety controls
Exchange rate policy
R&D subsidies Training programs Tax exemption for capital goods
Business Climate Educated labor force …..
Sector -
Rural roads for certain areas Cold storage logistics Food safety controls
Public Input -P-
Market
Intervention -M-
-H- “ Scope ” -V-
Introducción China y América LatinaDemografía y clase mediaNo somos todos igualesReflexiones finales
Contenido
Una expansión importante de la clase media
Fuente: Cárdenas, Kharas , Henao (2011). “Latin America’s Emerging Middle Class” Brookings Working Paper.
Without
convergence
With convergence
Own track
record Progressive
Mexico 60 80 86 70 70Uruguay 56 77 82 56 86Costa Rica 52 76 81 52 59Jamaica 47 70 89 47 54Argentina 53 69 70 49 59Chile 46 69 81 54 54El Salvador 47 69 74 47 51Venezuela 40 68 79 91 91Panama 42 64 71 42 46Dom. Rep. 31 63 82 29 33Guatemala 34 59 78 39 37Peru 31 59 79 29 33Brazil 34 53 71 52 52Ecuador 28 49 75 25 29Colombia 25 46 69 22 26Guyana 17 43 83 17 13Honduras 16 39 70 16 16Paraguay 19 39 76 19 31Bolivia 13 31 65 13 13
Size of the middle class as % of population
Country 2005
2030 based on simulationsGrowth Redistribution
La brecha en la calidad educativa reproduce la desigualdad
21
Argentina
AustraliaAustria
Azerbaijan
Belgium
Brazil
BulgariaChile
Colombia
Croatia
Czech Republic DenmarkEstonia
Finland
FranceGermany
Greece
Hong Kong
Hungary
Iceland
Indonesia
Ireland
Israel
Italy
J apan
J ordan
Korea
Kyrgyz Republic
LatviaLithuania Luxembourg
Macao, China
Mexico
NetherlandsNew Zealand
Norway Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Thailand
Tunisia
Turkey
UK
United States
Uruguay
300
350
400
450
500
550
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Expenditure per student, primary (% of GDP per capita)
Mat
hem
atic
s sc
ore
in P
ISA
200
6
Fuente: Mathematics score from Pisa (2006). Expenditure per Student, primary (% GDP) is the most recent data available in WDI (2004 for most of the countries). Public expenditure per student is the public current spending on education divided by the total number of students in the primary level.
Educación privada vs. pública : Rendimiento y estatus socioeconómico
22Fuente: OECD (2006).
Introducción China y América LatinaDemografía y clase mediaNo somos todos igualesReflexiones finales
Contenido
• Clasifica mercados emergentes de acuerdo a puntajes en cuatro áreas:– Crecimiento entre 1999-2010: Crecimiento del PIB
ajustado por riesgo (crecimiento promedio sobre desviación estándar) y test de stress (desviación de crecimiento 2009 del promedio pre-crisis 1999-2007).
– Resistencia Financiera: Deuda publica externa sobre PIB, deuda externa neta sobre PIB, necesidades de financiamiento sobre ingresos de cuenta corriente y spread de la deuda soberana.
– Record de políticas: Inflación ajustada por riesgo (inflación promedio mas desviación estándar 1999-2010) y promedio móvil de cinco años del superávit primario estructural.
– Desarrollo: Coeficiente Gini, Indice de Desarrollo Humano de Naciones Unidas y los World Governance Indicators (WGI).
El “Brookings Graduation Scorecard”
Latin America: mixed results
Graduation criteria: Growth
Graduation criteria: Policy track record
LAC (avg)
Policy track record disaggregated: Cyclically Adjusted Primary Fiscal Balance
LAC (avg)
Graduation criteria: Financial Resilience
Graduation criteria: Development
Development disaggregated: Gini
LAC (avg)
Development disaggregated: Human Development
Development disaggregated: Governance
Worldwide Sample: WGI Overall Governance vs. GDP per capita
Sources: WGI: A Summary of Data, Methodology and Analytical Issues,” by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, September 2010 – www.govindicators.org & World Bank WDI, 2011; Note: Countries in Latin America are identified. Green indicates changes between 2000 & 2009 of 0.25 or greater, red indicates changes of -0.25 or greater; five ovals reflect 5 different “governance performance” groups according to the level of the x-axis variable. From worst (left-most) to best (right-most) – performing, quasi-performing, potential performers, challenged and not performing
r = 0.76
34
Latin America: WGI Overall Governance vs. GDP per capita
Sources: WGI: A Summary of Data, Methodology and Analytical Issues,” by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, September 2010 – www.govindicators.org & World Bank WDI, 2011; Note: Bubble size is log of population; Green indicates changes between 2000 & 2009 of 0.25 or greater, red indicates changes of -0.25 or greater; five ovals reflect 5 different “governance performance” groups according to the level of the x-axis variable. From worst (left-most) to best (right-most) – performing, quasi-performing, potential performers, challenged and not performing
r = 0.56
35
• Transitoriedad – Altos precios de los productos básicos, bajas
tasas de interés y abundancia de ahorro global no durarán mucho.
• De la confianza a la sobre-confianza– La década de América Latina puede
hacernos dormir en los laureles
• La década del desarrollo implica acción– La agenda pendiente es larga. Educación,
salud, infraestructura y productividad.
Resumen