TP Macroeconomía I

Parte 1 - Modelo Keynesiano Simple

A. Desarrolle brevemente el MKS de manera formal. Grafique y analícelo económicamente.

B. Busque una noticia acerca de alguna medida económica que haya tomado un gobierno, sea el argentino

o de otro país, durante el año 2015, preséntela y analice su impacto dentro del marco teórico. A partir de

la misma identifique:

i. La variable de política utilizada

ii. La dinámica del modelo

iii. El resultado de dicha política

Parte 2 - Agregados Macroeconómicos - Tendencia y Ciclo

la serie, identifique los ciclos económicos y calcule:

Agregada.

ciclicidad y coincidencia temporal.

2004 del INDEC para obtener la tasa de desempleo y realice las mismas comparaciones que en punto anterior.

B. Ahora tome los datos base 2004 del INDEC y complete los cuadros del anexo. Saque conclusiones a partir de los mismos.

A. A partir de la serie cuatrimestral de Oferta y Demanda a precios de 1993 del INDEC, desestacionalice

i. La amplitud y longitud de cada fase.

ii. La tasa de crecimiento anual y acumulada de cada ciclo.

iii. Determine la ciclicidad y la coincidencia temporal de cada componente de la Demanda

iv. Busque la tasa de interés mensual para plazos fijos a 30 días en pesos del BCRA y determine

v. Utilice los datos de la EPH Puntual hasta el año 2003 y de la EPH continua a partir del año

OK

FALTA ACUM (IGUAL QUE AMPLITUD?)

ALTO NIVEL? O PARA CADA PERÍODO?

Oferta y demanda Globales: valores trimestralesMillones de pesos, a precios de 1993

Período Oferta Global Demanda Global

Año Trimestre

1993 I 216,370 152,148 28,507 37,325 15,396II 241,872 166,026 32,816 43,956 17,483III 242,646 166,668 33,440 48,221 16,427IV 245,132 169,860 33,048 50,776 16,058

1994 I 232,945 164,965 29,309 45,580 16,281II 257,477 177,235 32,625 51,527 19,756III 253,468 174,510 33,287 53,182 19,584IV 257,342 177,722 33,158 54,637 19,740

1995 I 237,968 164,321 28,422 46,129 21,340II 248,094 166,567 32,937 43,400 26,472III 242,215 164,277 32,822 44,020 22,734IV 244,468 168,867 35,174 44,565 21,794

1996 I 236,566 164,312 29,323 41,460 21,991II 260,752 175,592 33,526 47,591 25,888III 262,167 177,727 33,846 51,558 26,009IV 267,020 183,153 35,467 53,327 25,513

1997 I 256,388 177,490 29,914 48,511 25,144II 281,770 191,311 34,961 56,800 29,383III 284,092 195,506 34,107 60,489 29,090IV 287,515 199,384 37,435 62,390 27,887

1998 I 271,702 187,197 30,365 57,077 27,854II 301,208 202,675 36,015 62,699 34,144III 293,315 200,922 36,983 62,903 32,623IV 286,268 199,434 37,634 60,443 28,729

1999 I 265,025 185,463 31,328 48,384 27,991II 286,412 195,463 36,596 53,304 33,051III 278,473 194,458 37,668 54,758 30,903IV 283,566 199,054 39,101 56,019 29,851

2000(*) I 264,556 186,315 31,651 45,938 28,976II 285,275 195,339 36,689 49,232 34,029III 276,768 193,973 38,276 50,995 31,357IV 278,092 193,703 38,913 51,843 30,725

2001(*) I 259,200 182,900 31,806 41,580 29,178II 284,796 191,298 36,843 46,196 35,590III 263,127 181,091 37,469 42,220 33,135IV 248,865 169,871 36,399 37,002 30,612

2002(*) I 216,849 148,507 29,414 22,719 30,822II 246,315 158,476 35,293 26,311 35,036III 237,417 156,094 34,922 26,714 34,260IV 240,361 157,992 35,652 30,388 32,372

2003(*) I 228,596 153,188 29,351 27,659 32,380II 265,402 169,567 36,594 35,024 37,788III 261,535 172,254 35,568 38,707 36,102IV 268,561 176,794 35,743 45,248 34,164

2004(*) I 254,330 171,056 29,591 41,571 34,870

PIB a precios de mercado

Consumo Privado

Consumo Público

Inversión Bruta Interna

Fija

Exportaciones de bienes y servicios

II 284,376 183,635 36,310 47,908 37,730III 284,392 187,558 37,029 51,702 39,416IV 293,467 193,374 38,056 55,936 39,813

2005(*) I 274,595 184,976 31,239 47,159 40,648II 313,927 203,729 38,281 59,863 43,953III 310,593 203,815 39,459 63,851 44,719IV 319,939 208,747 40,632 70,961 43,011

2006(*) I 298,696 200,566 33,817 57,963 43,268II 338,244 219,462 40,510 71,050 45,716III 337,742 218,510 40,688 77,256 47,481IV 347,579 224,989 42,445 79,484 48,502

2007(*) I 322,449 218,516 35,985 65,878 47,162II 367,492 238,547 43,361 80,037 49,701III 367,539 237,976 43,807 87,287 51,287IV 379,200 245,924 46,213 91,547 53,635

2008(*) I 349,945 236,762 38,372 79,279 50,055II 396,227 256,322 46,709 91,080 48,927III 393,039 254,163 46,538 94,665 57,518IV 394,565 255,269 49,425 89,188 47,619

2009(*) I 357,096 240,313 40,991 68,030 44,130II 393,181 251,708 49,638 81,314 50,622III 391,679 252,454 50,302 82,614 47,493IV 404,861 262,577 53,209 86,151 48,800

2010(*) I 381,222 257,804 44,415 76,918 45,975II 439,767 272,151 56,064 96,680 59,846III 425,323 274,854 54,601 104,586 60,700IV 442,209 292,773 57,309 107,453 52,415

2011(*) I 419,023 286,936 48,822 91,899 49,228II 479,964 303,565 62,728 119,730 60,117III 464,883 305,385 60,211 121,794 62,760IV 474,415 318,608 63,764 116,041 56,151

2012(*) I 440,884 307,159 53,197 94,507 51,309II 479,966 316,298 67,006 101,737 54,386III 468,141 311,929 63,597 117,519 58,276IV 484,213 332,913 67,090 113,856 49,136

2013(*) I 454,315 325,838 56,590 95,778 46,968II 519,609 345,534 72,745 118,207 56,761III 494,042 337,708 68,875 124,704 59,769

Oferta globalAño

Trimestre 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998I 0.95 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95II 1.03 1.01 1.03 1.03 1.04III 1.02 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.02IV 1.01 1.03 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01

Consumo PrivadoAño

Trimestre 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998IIIIIIIV

Técnica vista en claseOferta Global Consumo Privado SERIESPromedio Móvil Promedio Móvil

Ponderado Ponderado PBI

238,577 1.017 1.009 165,278 1.008 1.004 240,499 165,950242,599 1.010 1.015 168,281 1.009 1.017 241,619 167,049245,903 0.947 0.939 170,662 0.967 0.962 248,070 171,507248,782 1.035 1.037 172,625 1.027 1.016 248,393 174,407250,936 1.010 1.009 173,528 1.006 1.004 251,225 173,759250,391 1.028 1.015 172,114 1.033 1.017 253,653 174,780247,811 0.960 0.939 169,501 0.969 0.962 253,419 170,837244,795 1.013 1.037 167,115 0.997 1.016 239,341 163,909243,011 0.997 1.009 166,007 0.990 1.004 240,072 163,569244,418 1.000 1.015 167,134 1.010 1.017 240,964 166,071248,494 0.952 0.939 169,943 0.967 0.962 251,926 170,827253,807 1.027 1.037 173,410 1.013 1.016 251,553 172,790259,104 1.012 1.009 176,843 1.005 1.004 259,848 176,962264,209 1.011 1.015 180,455 1.015 1.017 263,192 180,121269,577 0.951 0.939 184,642 0.961 0.962 273,034 184,528274,879 1.025 1.037 188,894 1.013 1.016 271,829 188,258279,356 1.017 1.009 192,136 1.018 1.004 281,579 194,664283,700 1.013 1.015 194,770 1.024 1.017 283,394 196,083287,282 0.946 0.939 196,867 0.951 0.962 289,343 194,620288,279 1.045 1.037 197,551 1.026 1.016 290,581 199,441287,289 1.021 1.009 197,340 1.018 1.004 290,720 200,057284,604 1.006 1.015 196,222 1.016 1.017 282,164 196,133280,900 0.943 0.939 194,513 0.953 0.962 282,232 192,817278,707 1.028 1.037 193,657 1.009 1.016 276,308 192,344278,310 1.001 1.009 193,716 1.004 1.004 276,009 193,620278,110 1.020 1.015 193,807 1.027 1.017 279,502 195,759277,754 0.952 0.939 193,731 0.962 0.962 281,733 193,703276,857 1.030 1.037 193,001 1.012 1.016 275,211 192,222275,503 1.005 1.009 191,906 1.011 1.004 274,319 193,137274,774 1.012 1.015 190,974 1.014 1.017 274,105 190,497273,009 0.949 0.939 188,858 0.968 0.962 276,029 190,153267,650 1.064 1.037 184,269 1.038 1.016 274,748 188,245258,703 1.017 1.009 176,991 1.023 1.004 260,799 180,311248,599 1.001 1.015 168,589 1.008 1.017 245,297 167,059240,575 0.901 0.939 161,362 0.920 0.962 230,929 154,396236,298 1.042 1.037 156,752 1.011 1.016 237,625 155,947236,704 1.003 1.009 155,852 1.002 1.004 235,316 155,422240,558 0.999 1.015 157,824 1.001 1.017 236,916 155,377245,959 0.929 0.939 161,230 0.950 0.962 243,438 159,263252,499 1.051 1.037 165,601 1.024 1.016 256,039 166,861259,240 1.009 1.009 170,184 1.012 1.004 259,221 171,512264,829 1.014 1.015 174,176 1.015 1.017 264,711 173,868270,058 0.942 0.939 177,848 0.962 0.962 270,843 177,839

Coeficiente

Coeficiente de

Desestacionalizació

n

Coeficiente

Coeficiente de

Desestacionalización

Consumo Privado

Consumo Público

276,028 1.030 1.037 181,833 1.010 1.016 274,343 180,705281,674 1.010 1.009 185,646 1.010 1.004 281,876 186,750287,901 1.019 1.015 189,897 1.018 1.017 289,260 190,173294,870 0.931 0.939 194,441 0.951 0.962 292,423 192,311301,455 1.041 1.037 198,395 1.027 1.016 302,852 200,478307,776 1.009 1.009 202,265 1.008 1.004 307,845 202,937313,828 1.019 1.015 206,181 1.012 1.017 315,353 205,292320,262 0.933 0.939 209,984 0.955 0.962 318,089 208,519327,110 1.034 1.037 213,851 1.026 1.016 326,311 215,960333,534 1.013 1.009 218,125 1.002 1.004 334,754 217,569340,159 1.022 1.015 222,755 1.010 1.017 342,596 221,264347,540 0.928 0.939 227,574 0.960 0.962 343,385 227,180355,217 1.035 1.037 232,624 1.025 1.016 354,527 234,741362,607 1.014 1.009 237,521 1.002 1.004 364,287 236,951369,636 1.026 1.015 242,024 1.016 1.017 373,764 241,853376,415 0.930 0.939 246,269 0.961 0.962 372,666 246,150381,524 1.039 1.037 249,461 1.028 1.016 382,248 252,231384,338 1.023 1.009 251,073 1.012 1.004 389,562 253,069384,851 1.025 1.015 250,940 1.017 1.017 388,909 251,043384,300 0.929 0.939 250,150 0.961 0.962 380,282 249,842385,417 1.020 1.037 250,849 1.003 1.016 379,310 247,691389,720 1.005 1.009 253,949 0.994 1.004 388,214 251,367398,559 1.016 1.015 258,691 1.015 1.017 399,057 258,230408,588 0.933 0.939 264,046 0.976 0.962 405,973 268,027417,462 1.053 1.037 270,621 1.006 1.016 424,252 267,808426,855 0.996 1.009 278,037 0.989 1.004 421,560 273,671436,605 1.013 1.015 285,605 1.025 1.017 435,870 287,927446,575 0.938 0.939 293,348 0.978 0.962 446,229 298,314455,545 1.054 1.037 300,394 1.011 1.016 463,031 298,721462,304 1.006 1.009 306,151 0.997 1.004 460,770 304,070465,037 1.020 1.015 310,271 1.027 1.017 467,614 313,334465,444 0.947 0.939 312,680 0.982 0.962 469,510 319,339467,076 1.028 1.037 315,287 1.003 1.016 463,033 311,250469,980 0.996 1.009 319,410 0.977 1.004 464,000 310,585476,614 1.016 1.015 325,399 1.023 1.017 477,272 327,402484,807 0.937 0.939 332,276 0.981 0.962 483,812 338,759

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070.94 0.95 0.95 0.90 0.93 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.931.03 1.03 1.06 1.04 1.05 1.03 1.04 1.03 1.031.00 1.00 1.02 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.011.02 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.03

1999 2000 2001 2002.00 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Técnica vista en consulta bibliográficaDESESTACIONALIZADAS SERIES DESESTACIONALIZADAS

PBI

228,776 158,300 31,841 40,734 16,222235,303 163,511 32,173 44,309 16,060240,033 166,132 32,479 46,781 16,227241,967 166,759 31,318 48,453 16,854245,406 170,937 32,747 49,567 17,154250,482 174,911 31,934 51,924 18,163251,114 173,955 32,324 51,434 19,300254,230 174,629 31,375 52,001 20,744250,307 170,143 31,892 50,000 22,596240,820 164,589 32,276 43,356 24,488239,889 163,467 31,939 42,355 22,360241,729 165,833 33,249 42,402 22,895248,375 170,323 33,055 45,132 23,393253,911 173,742 32,803 47,790 23,949259,743 176,573 32,915 49,961 25,358264,476 180,145 33,388 51,053 26,700270,030 185,398 33,903 53,323 26,887274,047 188,009 34,228 57,028 27,135280,945 193,986 33,095 58,436 28,300284,742 196,296 35,191 59,403 29,183286,216 194,524 34,604 63,096 30,010291,824 200,241 35,288 62,477 31,418290,935 199,172 35,739 60,408 31,873283,518 196,292 35,366 57,141 30,049279,986 193,296 35,861 53,989 30,158276,823 192,597 35,837 53,149 30,216276,025 192,547 36,188 52,596 30,311280,642 195,997 36,807 52,732 31,111279,688 194,393 36,359 51,822 31,071275,188 192,107 35,844 48,937 31,131274,486 191,766 36,649 48,941 30,875275,328 191,064 36,676 48,308 32,010275,779 191,019 36,607 46,783 31,132273,490 187,801 35,793 45,625 32,831260,784 178,763 35,769 40,423 32,619245,933 167,577 34,347 34,167 31,934233,806 157,931 33,951 25,720 32,535234,797 153,541 34,185 26,110 32,716234,972 153,746 33,397 26,045 33,580237,367 155,851 33,747 28,256 33,660246,138 161,252 33,965 31,825 33,886253,926 165,897 35,324 35,047 35,845260,131 170,211 34,091 37,752 35,348265,012 174,444 33,876 42,014 35,354271,846 179,210 34,269 47,713 36,116

Inversión Bruta Interna Fija


Consumo Privado

Consumo Público

Inversión Bruta Interna

Fija


274,845 179,880 35,007 47,565 36,413281,067 185,821 35,621 49,951 38,566288,807 190,711 36,089 51,889 40,733295,313 194,637 36,160 54,376 41,960302,054 198,455 36,895 59,673 42,996307,699 202,430 38,097 61,628 43,839313,988 205,745 38,459 66,157 43,538320,944 209,137 39,037 67,068 44,753326,541 215,345 38,970 70,444 45,055334,046 217,389 39,352 73,943 46,491340,729 221,655 40,101 74,298 48,668346,574 227,094 41,503 76,429 49,371353,380 234,533 41,628 79,198 48,722364,554 237,137 42,560 82,958 50,110372,171 242,200 43,674 86,165 53,581375,536 246,343 44,274 91,648 53,438382,011 251,397 44,642 89,257 47,263389,725 253,847 45,383 89,137 55,586386,505 250,929 46,743 84,170 47,832382,706 247,989 47,344 78,918 48,079381,151 248,662 47,140 79,185 48,063386,610 252,961 49,251 78,221 45,411396,350 257,439 50,405 81,785 49,491408,573 264,808 51,385 89,368 51,037420,107 269,654 52,914 94,430 56,789424,377 276,437 53,666 98,790 57,078435,487 286,683 54,424 103,049 54,032447,115 293,518 56,593 106,439 54,814460,879 301,339 58,899 117,203 57,369464,669 307,895 59,370 114,699 57,986465,622 311,741 60,663 111,123 58,089467,327 312,995 61,458 108,619 56,451464,104 314,147 62,509 98,774 52,229467,479 315,269 62,741 110,278 52,830474,295 325,542 63,867 109,157 51,055484,075 333,418 65,489 110,317 51,717494,590 340,929 67,330 113,939 54,182493,772 342,058 68,011 117,132 53,767

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Promedio0.93 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.94 0.9390311.04 1.02 1.05 1.05 1.03 1.0365701.02 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.0089261.03 1.02 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.014543

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Promedio#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!

Cuadro 14.1Oferta y Demanda Globales: tendencia-ciclo suavizada (1)Millones de pesos, a precios de 1993

Datos indec

Período Oferta y Demanda Globales

Año Trimestre PIB Importaciones

1993 I 229,787 19,120 159,359II 234,809 21,265 162,614III 239,298 23,216 165,610IV 243,076 24,867 168,506

1994 I 246,726 26,137 171,328II 249,865 26,870 173,503III 251,474 26,925 174,184IV 250,581 26,325 172,782

1995 I 247,519 25,237 169,754II 243,864 24,096 166,563III 241,822 23,500 165,056IV 242,921 23,958 166,121

1996 I 247,158 25,375 169,171II 253,114 27,278 172,794III 259,300 29,258 176,538IV 265,083 31,196 180,499

1997 I 270,607 33,099 184,773II 275,805 34,924 189,006III 280,672 36,607 192,962IV 285,024 38,120 196,337

1998 I 288,414 39,249 198,656II 289,621 39,521 199,273III 287,881 38,619 198,303IV 284,051 36,859 196,290

1999 I 280,310 35,238 194,321II 278,109 34,465 193,225III 277,567 34,510 193,322IV 277,565 34,735 193,869

2000 (*) I 277,329 34,748 193,950II 276,639 34,687 193,339III 276,207 34,810 192,711

Consumo Privado

IV 275,978 34,873 192,032

2001 (*) I 274,362 34,162 190,156II 268,949 31,835 185,363III 259,268 27,690 177,456IV 247,761 22,473 168,046

2002 (*) I 238,562 17,676 159,843II 233,961 14,689 154,831III 234,343 14,006 153,808IV 238,366 15,094 156,118

2003(*) I 244,593 17,045 160,442II 251,764 19,247 165,351III 258,855 21,514 170,114IV 265,116 23,821 174,456

2004(*) I 270,714 25,959 178,483II 276,045 27,704 182,284III 281,855 29,154 186,172IV 288,116 30,549 190,259

2005(*) I 294,619 31,895 194,456II 301,054 33,154 198,459III 307,447 34,361 202,219IV 313,765 35,678 205,819

2006(*) I 320,214 37,157 209,431II 326,761 38,714 213,222III 333,480 40,396 217,420IV 340,203 42,220 222,032

2007(*) IIIIIIIV

2008(*) IIIIIIIV

2009(*) IIIIIIIV

2010(*) IIIIIIIV

2011(*) IIIIIIIV

2012(*) IIIIIIIV

2013(*) IIIIII

Fuente: Dirección Nacional de Cuentas Nacionales

(*) Estimaciones preliminares

(1).- El documento en el que se exponen las opciones de desestacionalización seleccionadas a partir del I Trimestre de 2006 se encuentra en: http://www.mecon.gov.ar/secpro/dir_cn/desestacionalizacion/opcionestrimestralesx12_arima.pdf.

NOTA: Los totales por suma pueden no coincidir por redondeos en las cifras parciales

Oferta y Demanda Globales: tendencia-ciclo suavizada (1)

Oferta y Demanda Globales

IIBF Exportaciones

31,904 41,121 16,18332,065 44,042 16,18732,135 46,566 16,26532,184 48,544 16,662

32,161 50,249 17,30532,075 51,499 18,23731,935 51,834 19,47431,842 50,793 20,891

31,872 48,429 22,14832,049 45,547 22,89832,381 43,529 23,13332,705 43,385 23,211

32,854 44,885 23,56232,873 47,080 24,30433,015 49,284 25,25233,342 51,440 26,137

33,674 53,680 26,87433,870 56,019 27,54434,082 58,395 28,32034,446 60,606 29,282

34,874 62,071 30,27235,204 62,068 30,92735,449 60,374 31,00635,627 57,635 30,657

35,774 55,001 30,31735,938 53,288 30,25636,131 52,420 30,47136,286 51,843 30,773

36,333 51,061 31,01136,358 50,109 31,18036,493 49,257 31,413

Consumo Público

36,622 48,460 31,810

36,514 47,112 32,25736,075 44,364 32,48835,422 39,887 32,46434,744 34,451 32,398

34,185 29,551 32,52033,822 26,638 32,81633,704 26,249 33,23733,774 27,959 33,778

33,914 30,937 34,40934,010 34,467 34,91134,049 38,164 35,21334,152 41,789 35,480

34,452 45,025 36,04134,925 47,661 37,08035,445 49,898 38,57635,924 52,235 40,270

36,423 55,079 41,79937,043 58,355 42,82337,740 61,711 43,44038,336 64,858 43,947

38,743 67,720 44,58739,075 70,202 45,43939,547 72,274 46,51340,232 74,112 47,671

347,366 44,103 226,960 41,012 76,242 48,786355,128 46,235 232,002 41,792 79,103 49,838363,316 48,955 237,214 42,595 82,762 51,081370,986 52,125 242,444 43,405 86,562 52,336

377,586 54,759 247,130 44,157 89,324 52,849382,545 55,518 250,345 44,844 89,889 52,092385,328 53,738 251,472 45,561 87,968 50,539385,478 50,023 250,756 46,383 84,425 48,946

384,434 46,093 249,681 47,280 80,912 47,754384,821 43,932 249,969 48,219 78,937 47,145388,831 44,712 252,687 49,244 79,510 47,597396,259 48,066 257,424 50,361 82,822 49,422

405,523 52,540 263,309 51,480 88,004 52,058415,286 56,832 269,988 52,540 93,578 54,249425,414 60,555 277,576 53,640 98,914 55,334436,034 63,972 285,818 54,973 104,168 55,647

446,934 67,177 294,002 56,537 109,237 56,070456,462 69,583 301,341 58,112 112,860 56,897462,863 70,234 307,228 59,481 113,725 57,599465,533 68,904 311,159 60,626 111,946 57,416

465,932 65,068 313,515 61,531 109,124 56,102466,288 61,243 316,029 62,298 107,053 54,192468,731 65,865 320,138 63,050 106,802 52,505473,724 67,302 326,009 64,023 107,916 51,648

481,619 69,472 333,227 65,410 110,881 52,179488,741 70,443 339,719 66,796 114,195 53,109494,055 69,741 344,630 68,070 117,179 53,109

Fuente: Dirección Nacional de Cuentas Nacionales

Los totales por suma pueden no coincidir por redondeos en las cifras parciales


Período Oferta Global Demanda Global

Año Trimestre PIB a precios de mercado Consumo Privado Consumo Público

1993 236,505 163,676 31,953 45,069 16,341I 216,370 152,148 28,507 37,325 15,396II 241,872 166,026 32,816 43,956 17,483III 242,646 166,668 33,440 48,221 16,427IV 245,132 169,860 33,048 50,776 16,058

1994 250,308 173,608 32,095 51,231 18,840I 232,945 164,965 29,309 45,580 16,281II 257,477 177,235 32,625 51,527 19,756III 253,468 174,510 33,287 53,182 19,584IV 257,342 177,722 33,158 54,637 19,740

1995 243,186 166,008 32,339 44,528 23,085I 237,968 164,321 28,422 46,129 21,340II 248,094 166,567 32,937 43,400 26,472III 242,215 164,277 32,822 44,020 22,734IV 244,468 168,867 35,174 44,565 21,794

1996 256,626 175,196 33,041 48,484 24,850I 236,566 164,312 29,323 41,460 21,991II 260,752 175,592 33,526 47,591 25,888III 262,167 177,727 33,846 51,558 26,009IV 267,020 183,153 35,467 53,327 25,513

1997 277,441 190,922 34,104 57,047 27,876I 256,388 177,490 29,914 48,511 25,144II 281,770 191,311 34,961 56,800 29,383III 284,092 195,506 34,107 60,489 29,090IV 287,515 199,384 37,435 62,390 27,887

1998 288,123 197,557 35,249 60,781 30,838I 271,702 187,197 30,365 57,077 27,854II 301,208 202,675 36,015 62,699 34,144III 293,315 200,922 36,983 62,903 32,623IV 286,268 199,434 37,634 60,443 28,729

1999 278,369 193,610 36,173 53,116 30,449I 265,025 185,463 31,328 48,384 27,991II 286,412 195,463 36,596 53,304 33,051III 278,473 194,458 37,668 54,758 30,903IV 283,566 199,054 39,101 56,019 29,851

2000(*) 276,173 192,332 36,382 49,502 31,272I 264,556 186,315 31,651 45,938 28,976II 285,275 195,339 36,689 49,232 34,029III 276,768 193,973 38,276 50,995 31,357IV 278,092 193,703 38,913 51,843 30,725

2001(*) 263,997 181,290 35,629 41,750 32,129I 259,200 182,900 31,806 41,580 29,178II 284,796 191,298 36,843 46,196 35,590III 263,127 181,091 37,469 42,220 33,135IV 248,865 169,871 36,399 37,002 30,612

2002(*) 235,236 155,267 33,820 26,533 33,123I 216,849 148,507 29,414 22,719 30,822II 246,315 158,476 35,293 26,311 35,036III 237,417 156,094 34,922 26,714 34,260IV 240,361 157,992 35,652 30,388 32,372

2003(*) 256,023 167,951 34,314 36,659 35,108I 228,596 153,188 29,351 27,659 32,380II 265,402 169,567 36,594 35,024 37,788III 261,535 172,254 35,568 38,707 36,102IV 268,561 176,794 35,743 45,248 34,164

2004(*) 279,141 183,906 35,247 49,280 37,957I 254,330 171,056 29,591 41,571 34,870II 284,376 183,635 36,310 47,908 37,730III 284,392 187,558 37,029 51,702 39,416IV 293,467 193,374 38,056 55,936 39,813

2005(*) 304,764 200,317 37,403 60,458 43,083I 274,595 184,976 31,239 47,159 40,648II 313,927 203,729 38,281 59,863 43,953III 310,593 203,815 39,459 63,851 44,719IV 319,939 208,747 40,632 70,961 43,011

2006(*) 330,565 215,882 39,365 71,438 46,242I 298,696 200,566 33,817 57,963 43,268II 338,244 219,462 40,510 71,050 45,716III 337,742 218,510 40,688 77,256 47,481IV 347,579 224,989 42,445 79,484 48,502

2007(*) 359,170 235,241 42,341 81,187 50,446I 322,449 218,516 35,985 65,878 47,162II 367,492 238,547 43,361 80,037 49,701III 367,539 237,976 43,807 87,287 51,287IV 379,200 245,924 46,213 91,547 53,635

2008(*) 383,444 250,629 45,261 88,553 51,030I 349,945 236,762 38,372 79,279 50,055II 396,227 256,322 46,709 91,080 48,927III 393,039 254,163 46,538 94,665 57,518IV 394,565 255,269 49,425 89,188 47,619

2009(*) 386,704 251,763 48,535 79,527 47,761I 357,096 240,313 40,991 68,030 44,130II 393,181 251,708 49,638 81,314 50,622III 391,679 252,454 50,302 82,614 47,493IV 404,861 262,577 53,209 86,151 48,800

2010(*) 422,130 274,396 53,097 96,409 54,734I 381,222 257,804 44,415 76,918 45,975II 439,767 272,151 56,064 96,680 59,846III 425,323 274,854 54,601 104,586 60,700IV 442,209 292,773 57,309 107,453 52,415

2011(*) 459,571 303,623 58,881 112,366 57,064

Inversión Bruta Interna Fija


I 419,023 286,936 48,822 91,899 49,228II 479,964 303,565 62,728 119,730 60,117III 464,883 305,385 60,211 121,794 62,760IV 474,415 318,608 63,764 116,041 56,151

2012(*) 468,301 317,075 62,723 106,905 53,277I 440,884 307,159 53,197 94,507 51,309II 479,966 316,298 67,006 101,737 54,386III 468,141 311,929 63,597 117,519 58,276IV 484,213 332,913 67,090 113,856 49,136

2013(*) 489,322 336,360 66,070 112,897 54,499I 454,315 325,838 56,590 95,778 46,968II 519,609 345,534 72,745 118,207 56,761III 494,042 337,708 68,875 124,704 59,769


Período Oferta Global

AñoCrec./Decrec. Amplitud Longitud

1993 236,505 -1994 250,308 Crecimiento 5.84% 11995 243,186 Decrecimiento -2.85% 11996 256,626 Crecimiento 18.48% 31997 277,4411998 288,1231999 278,369 Decrecimiento -18.36% 4

2000(*) 276,1732001(*) 263,9972002(*) 235,2362003(*) 256,023 Crecimiento 108.01% 112004(*) 279,1412005(*) 304,7642006(*) 330,5652007(*) 359,1702008(*) 383,4442009(*) 386,7042010(*) 422,1302011(*) 459,5712012(*) 468,3012013(*) 489,322

CICLICIDAD TEMPORAL

1993 - 2013 Procilclica 1993 - 2013 Coincidente

1993 - 1994 Prociclica 1994 Rezagado

1994 - 1995 Contraciclica 1995 Rezagado


1998 - 2000 Contraciclica 2002 Coincidente

2000 - 2013 Prociclica 2013 Coincidente

IBIF IBIF1993 - 2008 Prociclica 1994 Coincidente



PIB a precios de mercado

COINCIDENCIA

Consumo privado

Consumo privado

Consumo publico

Consumo publico

B38

Gise: Revisar







2002 - 2008 Prociclica 2013 Lider

2008 -2009 Contraciclica2009 - 2011 Prociclica2011 - 2012 Contraciclica2012 - 2013 Prociclica

Relación PBI con tasa de interés de Plazo fijo a 30 días

Contracíclica Líder

Exportaciones

Exportaciones

Información utilizada

Demanda Global

Crec./Decrec. Amplitud Longitud163,676 -

5.84% 173,608 Crecimiento 6.07% 1-2.85% 166,008 Decrecimiento -4.38% 15.81% 175,196 Crecimiento 19.00% 3

190,922197,557

-4.94% 193,610 Decrecimiento -21.41% 4192,332181,290155,267

6.89% 167,951 Crecimiento 116.63% 11183,906200,317215,882235,241250,629251,763274,396303,623317,075336,360

Tasa de Crecimiento anual

Tasa de Crecimiento acumulado

Consumo Privado

Demanda Global


6.07% 32,095 Crecimiento 13.86% 7-4.38% 32,3395.97% 33,041

34,10435,249

-5.84% 36,17336,38235,629 Decrecimiento -7.04% 233,820

7.28% 34,314 Crecimiento 95.36% 1135,24737,40339,36542,34145,26148,53553,09758,88162,72366,070



Consumo Público

Demanda Global


1.87% 51,231 Crecimiento 13.67% 144,528 Decrecimiento -13.08% 148,484 Crecimiento 36.50% 357,04760,78153,116 Decrecimiento -56.35% 449,502

-3.59% 41,75026,533

6.28% 36,659 Crecimiento 325.50% 1149,28060,45871,43881,18788,55379,52796,409

112,366106,905112,897



Inversión Bruta

Interna Fija

Demanda Global


13.67% 18,840 Crecimiento 88.71% 5-13.08% 23,08510.93% 24,850

27,87630,838

-18.72% 30,449 Decrecimiento -1.26% 131,272 Crecimiento 67.59% 932,12933,123

14.07% 35,10837,95743,08346,24250,44651,03047,761 Decrecimiento -6.41% 154,734 Crecimiento 19.48% 257,06453,277 Decrecimiento -6.64% 154,499 Crecimiento 2.29% 1




Demanda Global

13.54%

-1.26%5.91%

-6.41%9.31%

-6.64%2.29%



Periodo

20.4

17.8

16.3

14.5

14.4

14.8

13.2

12.1

13

12.1

11.1

10.1

11.4

10.4

10.2

8.7

Serie: Tasas del mercado laboral

Tasas: Tasa de desocupación

Regiones y aglomerados: Total de aglomerados urbanos

Total de aglomerados urbanos (1)

1 Trim. 2003

2 Trim. 2003

3 Trim. 2003

4 Trim. 2003

1 Trim. 2004

2 Trim. 2004

3 Trim. 2004

4 Trim. 2004

1 Trim. 2005

2 Trim. 2005

3 Trim. 2005

4 Trim. 2005

1 Trim. 2006

2 Trim. 2006

3 Trim. 2006

4 Trim. 2006

9.8

8.5

8.1

7.5

8.4

8

7.8

7.3

8.4

8.8

9.1

8.4

8.3

7.9

7.5

7.3

7.4

7.3

7.2

6.7

1 Trim. 2007

2 Trim. 2007

3 Trim. 2007

4 Trim. 2007

1 Trim. 2008

2 Trim. 2008

3 Trim. 2008

4 Trim. 2008

1 Trim. 2009

2 Trim. 2009

3 Trim. 2009

4 Trim. 2009

1 Trim. 2010

2 Trim. 2010

3 Trim. 2010

4 Trim. 2010

1 Trim. 2011

2 Trim. 2011

3 Trim. 2011

4 Trim. 2011

7.1

7.2

7.6

6.9

7.9

7.2

6.8

1 Trim. 2012

2 Trim. 2012

3 Trim. 2012

4 Trim. 2012

1 Trim. 2013

2 Trim. 2013

3 Trim. 2013

Notas: Vea las notas correspondientes a este serie

Fuente: INDEC

http://www.indec.gov.ar/serieshistoricas/notas/EPH-Notas.xls

FechaPanorama monetario y financiero (series mensuales) - Tasas de interés, promedio mensual en porcentaje nominal anual - Por depósitosa plazo fijo de 30 a 59 días de plazo - De moneda nacional

30

31/01/1993

13,92000000000

28/02/1993

15,80000000000

31/03/1993

12,89000000000

30/04/1993

11,61000000000

31/05/1993

10,51000000000

30/06/1993

9,90000000000

31/07/1993

11,01000000000

31/08/1993

10,01000000000

30/09/1993

8,84000000000

31/10/1993

8,36000000000

30/11/1993

8,14000000000

31/12/1993

8,67000000000

31/01/1994

8,07000000000

28/02/1994

6,44000000000

31/03/1994

7,03000000000

30/04/1994

7,69000000000

31/05/1994

7,83000000000

30/06/1994

8,08000000000

31/07/1994

8,44000000000

31/08/1994

8,55000000000

30/09/1994

8,33000000000

31/10/1994

8,27000000000

30/11/1994

8,72000000000

31/12/1994

9,55000000000

31/01/1995

10,65000000000

28/02/1995

11,64000000000

31/03/1995

19,38000000000

30/04/1995

19,07000000000

31/05/1995

15,54000000000

30/06/1995

10,83000000000

31/07/1995

10,24000000000

31/08/1995

9,17000000000

30/09/1995

9,21000000000

31/10/1995

8,92000000000

30/11/1995

9,02000000000

31/12/1995

9,16000000000

31/01/1996

8,62000000000

29/02/1996

7,62000000000

31/03/1996

7,27000000000

30/04/1996

7,11000000000

31/05/1996

6,66000000000

30/06/1996

6,55000000000

31/07/1996

6,67000000000

31/08/1996

7,45000000000

30/09/1996

7,76000000000

31/10/1996

7,44000000000

30/11/1996

7,53000000000

31/12/1996

7,60000000000

31/01/1997

7,33000000000

28/02/1997

6,92000000000

31/03/1997

6,77000000000

30/04/1997

6,67000000000

31/05/1997

6,49000000000

30/06/1997

6,43000000000

31/07/1997

6,42000000000

31/08/1997

6,38000000000

30/09/1997

6,43000000000

31/10/1997

6,70000000000

30/11/1997

8,78000000000

31/12/1997

8,28000000000

31/01/1998

7,71000000000

28/02/1998

6,81000000000

31/03/1998

6,76000000000

30/04/1998

6,69000000000

31/05/1998

6,68000000000

30/06/1998

6,63000000000

31/07/1998

6,71000000000

31/08/1998

7,23000000000

30/09/1998

10,34000000000

31/10/1998

9,16000000000

30/11/1998

7,97000000000

31/12/1998

8,05000000000

31/01/1999

9,18000000000

28/02/1999

8,31000000000

31/03/1999

6,84000000000

30/04/1999

6,08000000000

31/05/1999

6,29000000000

30/06/1999

7,46000000000

31/07/1999

7,66000000000

31/08/1999

7,64000000000

30/09/1999

8,04000000000

31/10/1999

9,36000000000

30/11/1999

9,42000000000

31/12/1999

10,28000000000

31/01/2000

7,86000000000

29/02/2000

8,24000000000

31/03/2000

7,29000000000

30/04/2000

7,22000000000

31/05/2000

8,05000000000

30/06/2000

7,62000000000

31/07/2000

7,35000000000

31/08/2000

7,25000000000

30/09/2000

7,86000000000

31/10/2000

8,44000000000

30/11/2000

10,62000000000

31/12/2000

12,26000000000

31/01/2001

8,66000000000

28/02/2001

6,56000000000

31/03/2001

10,81000000000

30/04/2001

13,72000000000

31/05/2001

13,57000000000

30/06/2001

10,96000000000

31/07/2001

21,22000000000

31/08/2001

25,82000000000

30/09/2001

21,56000000000

31/10/2001

21,72000000000

30/11/2001

31,94000000000

31/12/2001

7,42000000000

31/01/2002

5,53000000000

28/02/2002

7,61000000000

31/03/2002

15,05000000000

30/04/2002

46,00000000000

31/05/2002

64,58000000000

30/06/2002

72,17000000000

31/07/2002

76,70000000000

31/08/2002

65,05000000000

30/09/2002

44,46000000000

31/10/2002

34,13000000000

30/11/2002

19,01000000000

31/12/2002

20,72000000000

31/01/2003

17,03000000000

28/02/2003

17,55000000000

31/03/2003

20,26000000000

30/04/2003

19,40000000000

31/05/2003

12,58000000000

30/06/2003

9,64000000000

31/07/2003

5,57000000000

31/08/2003

4,08000000000

30/09/2003

4,08000000000

31/10/2003

4,14000000000

30/11/2003

4,13000000000

31/12/2003

3,47000000000

31/01/2004

2,62000000000

29/02/2004

2,23000000000

31/03/2004

2,23000000000

30/04/2004

2,09000000000

31/05/2004

2,45000000000

30/06/2004

2,44000000000

31/07/2004

2,50000000000

31/08/2004

2,79000000000

30/09/2004

2,94000000000

31/10/2004

3,06000000000

30/11/2004

3,01000000000

31/12/2004

3,01000000000

31/01/2005

2,84000000000

28/02/2005

2,72000000000

31/03/2005

2,78000000000

30/04/2005

3,13000000000

31/05/2005

3,67000000000

30/06/2005

3,81000000000

31/07/2005

4,21000000000

31/08/2005

4,06000000000

30/09/2005

4,11000000000

31/10/2005

4,29000000000

30/11/2005

4,48000000000

31/12/2005

5,05000000000

31/01/2006

5,54000000000

28/02/2006

5,51000000000

31/03/2006

5,82000000000

30/04/2006

6,37000000000

31/05/2006

6,57000000000

30/06/2006

6,61000000000

31/07/2006

6,78000000000

31/08/2006

6,95000000000

30/09/2006

6,88000000000

31/10/2006

6,70000000000

30/11/2006

6,82000000000

31/12/2006

6,48000000000

31/01/2007

7,42000000000

28/02/2007

7,03000000000

31/03/2007

7,12000000000

30/04/2007

7,06000000000

31/05/2007

6,82000000000

30/06/2007

6,74000000000

31/07/2007

7,00000000000

31/08/2007

8,31000000000

30/09/2007

9,69000000000

31/10/2007

9,57000000000

30/11/2007

9,29000000000

31/12/2007

9,62000000000

31/01/2008

8,76000000000

29/02/2008

7,98000000000

31/03/2008

8,03000000000

30/04/2008

8,04000000000

31/05/2008

9,66000000000

30/06/2008

13,01000000000

31/07/2008

11,78000000000

31/08/2008

10,19000000000

30/09/2008

10,84000000000

31/10/2008

11,87000000000

30/11/2008

16,32000000000

31/12/2008

16,11000000000

31/01/2009

14,23000000000

28/02/2009

11,63000000000

31/03/2009

11,68000000000

30/04/2009

11,82000000000

31/05/2009

11,80000000000

30/06/2009

12,01000000000

31/07/2009

11,95000000000

31/08/2009

11,81000000000

30/09/2009

11,36000000000

31/10/2009

11,03000000000

30/11/2009

10,39000000000

31/12/2009

9,53000000000

31/01/2010

9,45000000000

28/02/2010

9,25000000000

31/03/2010

9,11000000000

30/04/2010

8,91000000000

31/05/2010

8,78000000000

30/06/2010

9,00000000000

31/07/2010

9,16000000000

31/08/2010

9,25000000000

30/09/2010

9,27000000000

31/10/2010

9,17000000000

30/11/2010

9,04000000000

31/12/2010

9,63000000000

31/01/2011

9,66000000000

28/02/2011

9,49000000000

31/03/2011

9,48000000000

30/04/2011

9,41000000000

31/05/2011

9,58000000000

30/06/2011

9,65000000000

31/07/2011

9,68000000000

31/08/2011

10,12000000000

30/09/2011

10,55000000000

31/10/2011

12,04000000000

30/11/2011

13,79000000000

31/12/2011

14,71000000000

31/01/2012

12,64000000000

29/02/2012

12,33000000000

31/03/2012

11,79000000000

30/04/2012

11,29000000000

31/05/2012

11,32000000000

30/06/2012

11,20000000000

31/07/2012

11,45000000000

31/08/2012

11,77000000000

30/09/2012

12,08000000000

31/10/2012

12,29000000000

30/11/2012

12,31000000000

31/12/2012

13,83000000000

31/01/2013

13,04000000000

28/02/2013

13,22000000000

31/03/2013

13,65000000000

30/04/2013

13,85000000000

31/05/2013

14,68000000000

30/06/2013

15,16000000000

31/07/2013

14,82000000000

31/08/2013

15,34000000000

30/09/2013

15,40000000000

Panorama monetario y financiero (series mensuales) - Tasas de interés, promedio mensual en porcentaje nominal anual - Por depósitosa plazo fijo de 30 a 59 días de plazo - De moneda nacional

TP Macroeconomía I

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