COLOQUIO “LA CRISIS GLOBAL Y AMERICA LATINA”

19-21 de enero de 2009

Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana

Iztapalapa, México, D.F.

Hegemonía norteamericana, hegemonía militar: Desde Presidente

Bush hasta Presidente Obama

James Martín Cypher

• Profesor-Investigador en Economía, Doctorado en Estudios del Desarrollo, Universidad Autónoma de Zacatecas, México

• Profesor Emérito, Universidad Estatal de California, EUA

Régimenes de Hegemonía

• Nueva Hegemonía

• Crisis Hegemónica ↗

• Hegemonía ↗

Tiempo→Fuente: Kindelberger

Teoría de Estabildad Hegemónica• Economía Nacional Dominante ו Poder Dominante en Comerico Exterior ו Sistema de Producción Dominante ו Moneda Clave nivel Mundial √ ?• Control del Centro Financiero Mundial ? × • Sistema Nacional de Inovación Dominante √ ?• Control de la Mercancia Clave (petroleo) × • Poder Militar Dominante √ Fuentes Keohane/Cypher

Hipótesis sobre los EE. UU.

• El poder militar es un elemento clave en la construcción/mantenamiento del su hegemonía

• El poder militar es una VENTAJA COMPETITIVA• El poder militar es una medida para

compensar por debilidades en la producción y el comerico exterior en un sistema de rivalidad entre naciones y extraer concessiones económicas

Contratendencias

• Con más de 700 bases militares en otros países y con flotas ultramar hay riesgo de “extralimitar imperial”

• En frente de una crisis financiera 2007-2009 el intento de aumentar los gastos públicos resulta en déficits fiscal y deuda pública sin precidente [deuda > 100% GDP en 2010??]

• El financiamiento fiscal de los gastos militares se aumenta la deuda pública y se frena el poder militar en el futuro mediano

Contratendencias al las Contratendencias

• En la busqueda de proyectos “palas listas” de infraestructura y gastos públicos en 2009-2010 hay una estructura lista y capaz de absorber rapidamente inyecciones fiscales→”El Complejo Militar Industrial” ya acostombrado de gastar miles de millones de $$$ por día

• La idea comunalmente aceptado en que los efectos multiplicadores de los gastos militares son pocos no tiene fundamento

• Desde Halcónes Adventurosos y TropesDesde Halcónes Adventurosos y Tropes• a

HALCÓNES DISFRAZADOS Y LISTOS Con “poder Suave”/“poder Agudo”

• NO se niega, sino que se complementa el poder militar

• Nunca prometió Obama de reducir la capacidad de “proyectar el poder” y el intento es de aumentar esta capacidad

• Es creyente en el “EXCEPCIONALISMO EUA”

Bush vs. Obama: Política Militar

El Estado de Seguridad Nacional

• Es el estado adentro del estado nacional• Es la estructura estatal primordial en el

intento de reconstruir la hegemonía de los EE. UU.

• Para entender la política actual de este Estado hay que conocer los “actores” claves→Secretarios de Defensa y Estado→Asesor de Seguridad Nacional→los “Intelecutales de la Defensa” claves

Robert Gates, Secretario de Defensa de Obama: Experiencia

• El primero Secretario de Defensa de ser directamente renombrado, antes nombrado por Bush [Dic. 2006]

• 2002-2006 Texas A&M University Presidente

• 1999-2001 Texas A&M University, Interim Dean George Bush School of Gov't

• 1991-1993 Central Intelligence Agency Director

Robert Gates• 1989-1991 Executive Office of the President , Deputy National Security

Advisor• 1986-1989 Central Intelligence Agency

Deputy Director• 1967-1969 Dept of Air Force

Second Lieutenant• 1966-1974 Central Intelligence Agency

• Gates is a pragmatist not a unilateralist:• “US cannot kill or capture its way to victory”• “kinetic operations should be subordinated” to

“efforts to address grievances”

• Fuente: Foreign Affairs (January 2009)

Robert Gates, private sector

• Parker Drilling Co, Board of Directors Member• American Council on Education, President• Boy Scouts of America National Executive Board• The Fidelity Funds Chairman of Trustees• NACCO Industries, Inc Board of Directors • Brinker International, Inc Board of Directors • SAIC # 10 Military Contractor, 2007, Board of

Directors

William J. Lynn III, Deputy Secretary of Defense # 2 DOD Job

• former Under Secretary of Defense under President Clinton

• 2001-2002 he was an executive vice president of DFI International (consulting on national security policies)

• Center for a New American Security, Board Member• Senior Vice President for Government Operations and

Strategy for the Raytheon Corporation [the # 5 Pentagon military contractor in 2007]

• lobbyist for Raytheon until the summer of 2008,

Michele A. Flournoy, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Puesto # 3

• Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy, Clinton Administration

• Key participant in the creation of the QDR, 1997

• Leader of the QDR 2001 National Defense University Working Group

Michele A. Flournoy, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Puesto # 3

• Former Member of the Defense Policy Board

• Member Council on Foreign Relations

• President & Co-founder of the Center for a New American Security

• Center for Strategic and International Studies

Michele A. Flournoy, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy

•“The US must prepare for a broad range of future contingencies, from sustained small-unit irregular warfare missions to military-to-military training and advising missions to high-end warfare against regional powers armed with weapons of mass destruction and other asymmetric means.” P. 1

• Testimony to the House Armed Services Committee Feb 14, 2008

Michele A. Flournoy, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy

• “The United States is a global power with global interests, and we need our armed forces to be ready to respond whenever and wherever our strategic interests might be threatened. The absence of an adequate strategic reserve of ready ground forces must be addressed on an urgent basis.” P. 2

• Testimony to the House Armed Services Committee Feb 14, 2008

Michele A. Flournoy, Policy Recommendations:

• “Increase the Supply of ground Forces. Grow the Army, marine Corp and Special Operations Forces.

• Seek to reestablish a larger ready reserve of ground forces to enable rapid US response to other contingencies.

• Increase the percentage of the Army that is deployable.

• Invest in recapitalizing and modernizing aging Air Force and Navy fleets to ensure readiness for future missions.

• Increase the deployable operational capacity of civilian agencies to reduce the burden on the US military.” P. 8 Ibid.

General James Jones, Obama’s National Security Advisor

• 40 year US military career:• Marine Corp, Vietnam War participant• Marine Corp, Gulf War participant• Commandant of the US Marine Corp• Supreme Allied Commander, Europe• A director of the Boeing Corporation in 2007,

#2 Pentagon Contractor

General James Jones, Obama’s National Security Advisor

“The new security menace is transnational, characterized by enemies without territory, without borders, and without fixed bases. Today’s security environment includes threats such as the export and franchising of terrorism, eroding control of weapons of mass destruction, narco-trafficking, unanticipated and uncontrolled refugee flow, and illegal immigration. Many of these threats are nurtured in misgoverned or even ungoverned regions as terrorists and extremist organizations seek to find new havens from which to operate. We must change our posture to reflect the realities of the 21st Century”

SENATE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE 23 SEPTEMBER 2004

General James Jones, Obama’s National Security Advisor

• Described as a “Center-Right” or “Moderate” Advisor

• Considered a Pragmatist

• Advocate of “Soft Power”

President Barak Obama

“Ver el poder estadounidense en declinación terminal", escribió el entonces candidato presidencial en Foreign Affairs durante la campaña, "es ignorar la gran promesa y el propósito histórico de Estados Unidos en el mundo".

President Barak Obama

• increase the overall size of the U.S. military by 92,000 troops • increasing the number of U.S. (20-

30,000) and allied troops sent to Afghanistan• Use U.S. military force in Pakistan

[un poder nuclear]

Fallas en el papel hegemónico• Failure to exercising responsibility for global

macroeconomic stability, for example through encouraging a balance between domestic savings and consumption and fostering discipline in the government budget.

• Failure to exercising responsibility for the supervision of capital markets, particularly as financial instruments became more and more complicated. For example, the United States was slow to respond to the Asian financial crisis that began in 1997, and the recent financial meltdown arguably will exacerbate the current global recession.

Fallas en el papel hegemónico

• The failure to use force only in circumstances where it was absolutely necessary and with careful regard for the consequences.

• Competent provision of public goods domestically.

Fuente:On the Eve of Obama's Inauguration: American Soft Power, Brookings (January 2009) http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/01_asia_bush.aspx

La nueva tactica: Poder Suave

• “According to Joseph Nye, soft power, it is the ability of a country to wield influence

• through cooptation rather than command, • through attraction and agenda-setting • rather than coercion or payments.

Poder Suave

• a country that has the legitimacy to set the international political agenda by establishing norms and institutions that guide the actions of others for an extended period

• has exercised power in a way that is efficient and less subject to challenge.”

• a country can co-opt the cooperation of others • because its culture, political ideals, institutions, • and broad domestic and external policies are

attractive; • the country will have to exert less political

capital than if it had to use coercion or payments.

• On the Eve of Obama's Inauguration: American Soft Power, Brookings (January 2009) http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/01_asia_bush.aspx

Hillary Clinton, Obama’s Secretary of State

• US foreign policy will be led by diplomacy

Smart Power means:• 1. National Security =

Defense + Diplomacy + Development• 2. US policy =

Principles + Pragmatism

• Senate Confirmation Hearing, 13 Jan. 2009

¿Obama’s cambio de la política exterior?• El pragmatiso ES una ideología• El poder suave/poder agudo no se niega El poder duro• El equipo de Obama no van a ir lejos del “Realismo Historico en el ejercicio del poder del

Estado”

¿Obama’s cambio de la política exterior?

• Con la nueva tactica hay posibilidades de ganar tereno

• pero al mismo momento el colapso del sistema bancario y el caos financiero/fiscal socava las capacidades del EE.UU.

• La muerte del NEOLIBERALISMO (2008) es importante→ se abre nuevas posibilidades de crecimiento económico autónomo en la periferia→minando el proyecto hegemónico

¿Obama’s renovación de una política hegemónica en Am. Latina?

• Ni “benigna negligencia” ni cambio profundo esta en la oferta para Am. Latina

• Va a ser “una recalibración de condiciones y políticas correspondente” en cuanto a Am. Latina

• Tiene México “que recognizar que esta visto como un problema de seguridad y llegar a aceptar” esta

• Fuente: Mund Group, Opinion and Policy Report, Series 9 no 2 Jan 15, 2009 p. 3

¿Obama’s renovación de una política hegemónica en Am. Latina?

• El enfoque estratégico del los EE.UU. quedará en el Medio Oriente y Asia Central [en factores geopolíticas]

• y en la construcción de una NUEVA ORDEN PETROLERO llevando grandes consequencias para México, Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, Ecuador y Venezuela

• Fridtjof Nansen Institute: “A petroleum order is a particular (historical) configuration of economic factors of control by companies and petro-political strategies by governments, where a leading group of these actors succeed to impose rules of the game on the others and so control market behaviour.