Análisis del entorno económico venezolano

7/31/2019 Anlisis del entorno econmico venezolano

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AJ\KZUGTAZMA DK FG KLAIA@MG UKIK_AFGIG

M|gg| Laugzz{jmg| @gzw{mig

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Kitazia Klai`mla Ukikafgia) M|gg| Laugzz{jmg| @gzw{mig)

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G{iw{k gbazg fg azmkitglmi |kg bglmg kf gifm|m| dkf kitazia klai`mla& fg emigfmdgd |mh{k |mkida fg`m|`g? |kzumz dk `gtkzmgf dk mieaz`glmi& lai|{ftg& g~a}a k|tgd|tmla } dk k|t{dma ~gzg fa|k|t{dmgitk| dk fg| lgzzkzg| dk ~zk } ~a|thzgda dk klaia`g } dk fg| dk`| lmkilmg| |almgfk| dk fg|{imukz|mdgdk| k mi|tmt{ta| dk ki|kgig |{~kzmaz ukikafgia| a dk l{gfw{mkz atza ~g|& mitkzk|gda| kifg klaia`g ukikafgig)

K|tk gifm|m| dkf kitazia klai`mla ukikafgia k|tg dmumdmda ki tzk| ~gztk|? 7- kf gifm|m|`glzaklai`mla3 :- kf gifm|m| dk fg ~zad{ltmumdgd } fg la`~ktmtmumdgd }


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Kitazia @glzaklai`mla



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E{kitk? E@M & Xazfd Klaia`ml A{tfaac Dgtgjg|k":>7:-)

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7/72

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E{kitk? JLU ":>7:-)

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8/72E{kitk? JLU ":>7:-)

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Fg ugzmglmi dkf Lai|{à ^zmugda ki Ukik{kfg 7==2:>77 tmkik {ig lfgzg tkidkilmg ~zallfmlgzk|~klta g fg ugzmglmi dkf ^MJ "`kdmdg g ~zklma| lai|tgitk| dkf ga jg|k dk 7==8-) Fa| milzk`kita|dkf lai|{à ~zmugda bgi tkimda gf `kia| da| lgzgltkz|tmlg| zkfkugitk|? 7- |k bgi |{|tkitgda ki {igfta imukf dk m`~aztglmaik| dk jmkik|3 :- |k bgi |a~aztgda ki {i milzk`kita |mhimemlgtmua dkflai|{à dk fa| k|tzgta| |almaklai`mla| `| dk|eguazklmda|)

E{kitk? JLU ":>7:-)

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Ugzmglmi dkf ^MJ


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E{kitk? MIK ":>7:- } @^^^E ":>7:-) Kitazia Klai`mla Ukikafgia) M|gg| Laugzz{jmg| @gzw{mig)

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12/72Kitazia Klai`mla Ukikafgia) M|gg| Laugzz{jmg| @gz {mig)

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Dm|tzmj{lmi dkf Mihzk|a ~az w{mitmfk| ":>+-dk fg ~ajfglmi ukikafgig 7==8 } :>77

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13/72

Fg ugzmglmi dk fg Miukz|mi "Eaz`glmi jz{tg dk lg~mtgf emoa `| miukitgzma|- 7==2:>77& |mi dk|ghzkhgzkitzk fa w{k lazzk|~aidk g miukz|mi ~jfmlg } fa w{k lazzk|~aidk g miukz|mi ~zmugdg& bg |mda~zallfmlg g fg ugzmglmi dkf ^MJ& ~kza `{lba `| uaftmf w{k |tk) Fg miukz|mi ~jfmlg |k bg um|tagekltgdg ~az fg uafgtmfmdgd dk fa| mihzk|a| ~jfmla| } ~az {i |k|ha bglmg kf hg|ta ~jfmla lazzmkitk ~az|ajzk kf hg|ta ~jfmla dk miukz|mi& `mkitzg| w{k fg miukz|mi ~zmugdg |k bg um|ta gekltgdg ~az kf imukf

dk mik|tgjmfmdgd k milkztmd{`jzk dkf kitazia klai`mla ukikafgia dk fg ftm`g dlgdg)

E{kitk? JLU ":>7:-)

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Ugzmglmi dkf ^MJ

Ugzmglmi dk fg Miukz|mi } dkf ^MJ 7==2:>77


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Lai|mdkzgida kf ~kzmada 7==8:>7>& |k ~aik dk `gimemk|ta w{k fg miukz|mi ~zmugdg bg ~kzdmda~gztmlm~glmi ki fg miukz|mi tatgf "`kdmdg laà eaz`glmi jz{tg dk lg~mtgf emoa-& k|~klmgf`kitk ki fa|ftmà| ga|) Kf ~za`kdma dk fg miukz|mi ~zmugdg ";2&=+- lai zk|~klta gf tatgf e{k |{~kzmaz gf~za`kdma dk fg miukz|mi ~jfmlg "47&7+- d{zgitk 7===:>>4) âz kf laitzgzma& kf ~za`kdma dk fgmiukz|mi ~jfmlg ";8&5+- ki kf tatgf |{~kz kf ~za`kdma dk fg miukz|mi ~zmugdg "4:&4+- d{zgitk :>>;

:>7>) Dktz| dk fg kr~fmlglmi dkf ~az w{ dk k|tg `kz`g dk fg ~gztmlm~glmi dk fg miukz|mi ~zmugdg&bg} tgita egltazk| `glzaklai`mla|& g| laà egltazk| dk fg la`~ktmtmumdgd } zkfglmaigda| lai kflfm`g dk ikhalma| ~zkugfklmkitk ki kf ~g|)

E{kitk? JLU ":>7:- } lfl{fa| ~za~ma|)

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Miukz|mi ^zmugdg

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15/72E{kitk? JLU ":>7:-)

Gf mh{gf w{k fg ugzmglmi dk fg miukz|mi tatgf& ~gzg kf ~kzmada 7==2:>7> fg miukz|mi ~jfmlg } fgmiukz|mi ~zmugdg |k la`~aztgzai dk eaz`g `{} uaftmf& |mkida fg miukz|mi ~zmugdg fg w{k krbmjkfg `g}az uafgtmfmdgd ki |{ ugzmglmi gi{gf)

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16/72E{kitk? JLU ":>7:-)

Fg ugzmglmi dkf Hg|ta ^jfmla 7==2:>77 tmkik {ig tkidkilmg ~zallfmlg zk|~klta g fg ugzmglmi dkf ^MJ dkf`m|à ~kzmada) Kf hg|ta ~jfmla |k bg krglkzjgda ki ~kzmada| dk jaa` dk mihzk|a| ~ktzafkza|& ~kza f{kha|k bg à|tzgda `{} zhmda g go{|tgz|k ki ~kzmada| dk lgdg dk k|ta| mihzk|a|& k|~klmgf`kitk ki |{la`~aikitk dk hg|ta lazzmkitk "|{kfda| dk k`~fkgda| ~jfmla|& ~zahzg`g| |almgfk|& tzgi|ekzkilmg| dmzkltg|g fg ~ajfglmi- } `kia| zhmda ~gzg kf lg|a dkf hg|ta dk miukz|mi) Fg zmhmdk dkf hg|ta ~jfmla bg tzgda kitzk|{| lai|kl{kilmg| w{k kf hajmkzia& gitk fg m`~a|mjmfmdgd dk zkd{lmzfa& g~kfk g `klgim|à| miefglmaigzma| } gdkugf{glmaik| ~gzg lkzzgz fg jzklbg em|lgf w{k |k ~zad{lk dk eaz`g zkl{zzkitk) âz fa dk`|& kf keklta`{ftm~fmlgdaz dkf hg|ta ~jfmla |ajzk fg dk`gidg ghzkhgdg ~gzklk bgjkz ~kzdmda e{kzg ki fa| ftmà| ga|)

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Ugzmglmi dkf Hg|ta ^jfmla } dkf ^MJ 7==2:>77


17/72

Fg dk~kidkilmg dkf hg|ta ~jfmla g fa| mihzk|a| em|lgfk| ~zaukimkitk| dk fg kr~aztglmi dk ~ktzfka }& ~azkrtki|mi& fg dk~kidkilmg dk fg klaia`g ukikafgig gf ugmui dk k|ta| mihzk|a|& o{ita lai |{ {tmfmglmilaà `klgim|à zkdm|tzmj{tmua ~az ~gztk dkf hajmkzia& k| fa w{k ~kz`mtk lgfmemlgzfg laà {igklaia`gzkit|tmlg) [ig zkitg w{k |k hkikzg zkfgtmug`kitk gf `gzhki dk fg lg~glmdgd ~zad{ltmug dkf~g|) Fa| ~zklma| mitkziglmaigfk| dkf jgzzmf dk ~ktzfka& lai|mdkzgida kf ~kzmada :>>7:>77& ~za`kdmgzai;>7 dk 5)::8 `mffaik| dk dfgzk|) \mi k`jgzha& kf EK@ e{k dk|`gitkfgda ~g{fgtmig`kitk} glt{gf`kitk k|t mia~kzgtmua& fa l{gf laitzg|tg lai kf k|lkigzma dk atza ~g| ~ktzafkza& Iaz{khg& w{kl{kitg lai {i eaida dk gbazza lkzlgia g fa| 5>>)>>> `mffaik| dk dfgzk|)

E{kitk? JLU ":>7:-) Kitazia Klai`mla Ukikafgia) M|gg| Laugzz{jmg| @gzw{mig)

Mihzk|a| ~ktzafkza| 7===:>77 "@mffaik| dk [\D-

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Mihzk|a| ^ktzafkza| 7===:>77 "Ki @mff) [\D-

7=== :>>> :>>7 :>>: :>>< :>>4 :>>; :>>5 :>>8 :>>2 :>>= :>7> :>77

Mihzk|a| ^ktzafkza|"Ki @mff) [\D-)

75)4:> :5)587 :>)= 7=)>75 72)8


18/72

Kf la`~fk`kita dk fa| mihzk|a| ~ktzafkza| bgi |mda fa| mihzk|a| tzmj{tgzma|& zk~zk|kitgida ki ~za`kdma77+ dkf ^MJ ki fa| ftm`a| lmila ga|3 {i ~azlkitgok zkfgtmug`kitk jgoa l{gida |k la`~gzg lai kf dkfa| ~g|k| dk fg ALDK ";:>7: dk 77 :>>: :>>< :>>4 :>>; :>>5 :>>8 :>>2 :>>= :>7> :>77

Demlmt a \{~kzumt em|lgf"+ dkf MJ- :>>7:>77*

E{kitk? JLU ":>7:-) Kitazia Klai`mla Ukikafgia) M|gg| Laugzz{jmg| @gzw{mig)

Demlmt a \{~kzumt Em|lgf :>>7:>77 "^azlkitgok dkf ^MJ-


19/72E{kitk? JLU ":>7:-)

Dk{dg"@mff) [\D-/

:>>> :>7 ::)2>>:>>: :4):

:>>< :5)4:7

:>>4 :=);>:

:>>; 5

:>>5 :=)485

:>>8 >2 = ;;)=72

:>7> 87)::2

:>77 24);=4

/ \k zkemkzk g fg dk{dg ~jfmlg krtkzig laitgjmfmgdg ki kf ftm`a

tzm`k|tzk dk lgdg ga lai|mdkzgda

Kf milzk`kita dkf hg|ta ~jfmla bg k|tgda gla`~ggda dk {i e{kztk g{`kita dkf kidk{dg`mkita~jfmla krtkzia k mitkzia) Fg dk{dg ~jfmlg krtkzig ~zltmlg`kitk |k l{gdz{~fml ki {ig dlgdg)Dk|dk kf :>>5 gf :>77 bg lzklmda g {ig tg|g dkf ::+ gi{gf) Ki k|tk kidk{dg`mkita ia |k k|tmilf{}kida fg dk{dg lazzk|~aidmkitk gf laiukima dk ikhalma| lai Lbmig& w{k k| g {ig tg|g dk mitkz|miekzmaz g fg tg|g dk fa| `kzlgda| mitkziglmaigfk|) \khi kf @^^E ":>7:-& k|tk Eaida gflgi ~gzg kf

~zm`kz |k`k|tzk dkf :>7: fg lmezg dk )822 `mffaik| dk dfgzk|)


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Dk{dg ~jfmlg krtkzig:>>>:>77 "Ki `mffaik|dk [\D-

Dk{dg ^jfmlg Krtkzig :>>>:>77 "@mffaik| dk [\D-


20/72Kitazia Klai`mla Ukikafgia) M|gg| Laugzz{jmg| @gzw{mig)

Fg dk{dg ~jfmlg krtkzig la`a ~azlkitgok dkf ^MJ |k bg milzk`kitgda `adkzgdg`kitk& l{gida |kgigfmg ~gzg kf ~kzmada :>>>:>77& ~g|gida dk zk~zk|kitgz gfzkdkdaz dk 7=&2+ dkf ^MJ ki kf :>>> gzk~zk|kitgz :5&2+ ki kf :>77) \mi k`jgzha& {ig `kdmdg w{m| `| g~za~mgdg ~gzg `kdmz kf ~k|a dkfg dk{dg ~jfmlg krtkzig ki fg klaia`g ukikafgig |kg zkekzkilmgzfg gf ugfaz dk fg| kr~aztglmaik|&~{k| |ai |tg| fg| w{k ki dkemimtmug hkikzgi fa| dfgzk| w{k ~kz`mtmzi ~ghgzfg) Dk `gikzg w{k fg

lg~glmdgd dk ~gha dk fg dk{dg krtkzig k|t `| zkfglmaigdg lai kf la`~aztg`mkita dk fg|kr~aztglmaik| } fa| mihzk|a| ki dfgzk| w{k dmlbg| kr~aztglmaik| hkikzgi) Ki k|ta| tz`mia|& kf ~k|adk fg dk{dg ki kf tatgf dk kr~aztglmaik| |k bg milzk`kitgda |mhimemlgtmug`kitk) @mkitzg| ki kf :>>>fg dk{dg ~jfmlg krtkzig zk~zk|kitgjg {i 5=&:+ dk fg| kr~aztglmaik|& ki kf :>77 fg ~za~azlmizkfgtmug kw{mugfkitk e{k dk =7&4+ } ki kf ga mi`kdmgtg`kitk gitkzmaz ":>7>- kf ~azlkitgok |{~kz kf7>>+) Dk|dk k|tg ~kz|~kltmug& |k ~{kdk |kgfgz w{k fg lg~glmdgd dk ~gha dk fg dk{dg ~jfmlg krtkzig|k bg zk|kitmda dk `gikzg m`~aztgitk ki fg ftm`g dlgdg)

:>>> :>>7 :>>: :>>< :>>4 :>>; :>>5 :>>8 :>>2 :>>= :>7> :>77

Dk{dg Krtkzig!^MJ 7=&2>+ 72&;;+ :5&75+ =+ 7;&55+ 7:&>+ :4&78+ :5&82+

Dk{dg Krtkzig ! Kr~) 5=&7=+ 2;&;>+ =>&84+ =8&>8+ 7>2&>:>77

E{kitk? JLU ":>7:- } lfl{fa| ~za~ma|)



Fg dk{dg ~jfmlg mitkzig "w{k milf{}k dk{dg dkf hajmkzia lkitzgf& mi|tmt{lmaik| ~jfmlg| ia emigilmkzg| }eaida| dk |kh{zmdgd |almgf- |k bg kr~gidmda dk eaz`g ukztmhmia|g lai|mdkzgida kf ~kzmada :>>>:>77&~g|gida dk zk~zk|kitgz >> g zk~zk|kitgz 4;&;+ dkf ^MJ ki kf :>77) [ig ~gztk dkfg dk{dg ~jfmlg mitkzig k|t zkefkogdg ki fg k`m|mi dk jaia| h{jkzig`kitgfk| tgita ~az ~gztk dkfhajmkzia lkitzgf g| laà dk ^DU\G) Fg k`m|mi dk jaia| bg tkimda kf keklta ki kf |m|tk`g emigilmkza

ukikafgia dk hkikzgz {ig gftg dk`gidg ~az kffa|) Gfh{ia| jgila|& ~gztml{fgz`kitk dkf |kltaz ~jfmla&bgi ~zmumfkhmgda fg miukz|mi ki tt{fa| ugfazk|& ~az |ajzk |{ e{ilmi dk |kzumz dk mitkz`kdmgdazk| dkflg~mtgf) ^gzg `kdmgda| dkf :>7:& fa| lmila ~zmilm~gfk| jgila| ki ~adkz dkf K|tgda tkigi miukztmda| kitt{fa| ugfazk| kf 44&5+ dkf tatgf dk |{| dk~|mta| zklmjmda| dkf ~jfmla& ffkhgida {ia dk kffa| g tkikzlafalgda| ki jaia| dk dk{dg kf ;5&77 } gha|ta dkf :>7:) Kf milzk`kita tgita dk fg dk{dg ~jfmlg

krtkzig& g| laà dk fg dk{dg ~jfmlg mitkzig& zkukfg dk w{k g ~k|gz dkf |a|tkimda milzk`kita dk fa|mihzk|a| ~ktzafkza|& fg klaia`g ukikafgig ~{dmkzg kiezkitgz ki fa| ~zrmà| ga| {i ~zajfk`gk|tz{lt{zgf gh{da lai |{| l{kitg| em|lgfk|)

Dk{dg ~jfmlg mitkzig& krtkzig } tatgf laà ~azlkitgok dkf ^MJ :>>>:>77

:>>> :>>7 :>>: :>>< :>>4 :>>; :>>5 :>>8 :>>2 :>>= :>7> :>77

Dk{dg Mitkzig 7+ 44&48+ 4;&;:+ 7:- } lfl{fa| ~za~ma|)


22/72

Kr~aztglmaik|

"Ki @mff) [\D- 7==8 7==2 7=== :>>> :>>7 :>>: :>>)7:= 7):: :5)587 :>)= 7=)>75 72)88 7)77>

^zmugdg| 7:-) Kitazia Klai`mla Ukikafgia) M|gg| Laugzz{jmg| @gzw{mig)

Kr~aztglmaik| ~jfmlg| "~ktzafkzg| } ia ~ktzafkzg|- } kr~aztglmaik| ~zmugdg| "~ktzafkzg| } ia ~ktzafkzg| 7==8:>77"@mffaik| dk [\D-


23/72

7==8 7==2 7=== :>>> :>>7 :>>: :>>< :>>4 :>>; :>>5 :>>8 :>>2 :>>= :>7> :>77

Kr~) Ia

^ktzafkzg| :>>

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7==8 7==2 7=== :>>> :>>7 :>>: :>>< :>>4 :>>; :>>5 :>>8 :>>2 :>>= :>7> :>77

Fg| kr~aztglmaik| ia ~ktzafkzg| bgi dklfmigda dk eaz`g m`~aztgitk } zk~zk|kitgzai g~kig| {i ;+dkf tatgf dk kr~aztglmaik| dk jmkik| ki :>77) Kf dklfmuk dk fg| kr~aztglmaik| ~zmugdg| dk jmkik| iatzgdmlmaigfk| |k lai|tgtg gf aj|kzugz w{k gflgigzai {i `rmà dk ;)5>5 `mffaik| dk dfgzk| ki kf:>>;& ~gzg f{kha dm|`mi{mz } ffkhgz g {i ìmà dk 7)2>; `mffaik| dk dfgzk| ki :>>=& g{iw{k |kmilzk`kitgi fkuk`kitk ki kf :>7> } :>77) ^gzg :>7: |k ~zku w{k k|tg| kr~aztglmaik| dm|`mi{}gi)K|tg `kz`g tgi |mhimemlgtmug tmkik kitzk |{| lg{|g| fg g~zklmglmi dkf tm~a dk lg`jma zkgf& kf l{gf bggjgzgtgda fg| m`~aztglmaik|& uafumkida gitmla`~ktmtmug fg ~zad{llmi dk jmkik| tzgi|gjfk| ia~ktzafkza| } k|tm`{fgida fg ~zad{llmi dk jmkik| ia tzgi|gjfk| "fg kiekz`kdgd bafgidk|g-) Tg`jmi|k dkjk g fg| krlk|mug| zkh{fglmaik| krm|tkitk| ~gzg kr~aztgz } g fa| gfta| la|ta| dk tzgi|gllmim`~fmlgda| ki fg| gltmumdgdk| dk kr~aztglmi)

E{kitk? JLU ":>7:-)

Kr~aztglmaik| ~zmugdg| dk jmkik| ia tzgdmlmaigfk| 7==8:>77 "@mffaik| dk [\D-



24/72

E{kitk? JLU ":>7:-)

7==8 7==2 7=== :>>> :>>7 :>>: :>>< :>>4 :>>; :>>5 :>>8 :>>2 :>>= :>7> :>77

M`~aztglmaik|"@mff) [\D- 7;)=:7 78)28= 7;)4=: 78)=== :>)422 74):57 77):7; 72)72< :;)5:: >;:>77 kf ugfaz dk fg|m`~aztglmaik| |k bg d{~fmlgda& `| gff dk fg dm|`mi{lmi kr~kzm`kitgdg ki fa| ga| :>>=:>7>) Kfg{`kita dkf ugfaz dk fg| m`~aztglmaik| dk jmkik| |k bg ~zad{lmda ki {i laitkrta dk milzk`kita dkfa| mihzk|a| ~ktzafkza|& tm~a dk lg`jma aemlmgf |ajzkugf{gda } {ig ~aftmlg dk hg|ta ~jfmla azmkitgdg

g k|tm`{fgz e{kztk`kitk fg dk`gidg ghzkhgdg& k|~klmgf`kitk fg dk`gidg dk gfm`kita|)


>

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7==8 7==2 7=== :>>> :>>7 :>>: :>>< :>>4 :>>; :>>5 :>>8 :>>2 :>>= :>7> :>77

M`~aztglmaik| "@mff)[\D-

M`~aztglmaik| dk jmkik| 7==8:>77 "`mffaik| dk [\D-



G ~k|gz dkf |a|tkimda milzk`kita dk fg| m`~aztglmaik| d{zgitk kf ~kzmada 7==8:>77& kf |m`{ftikag{`kita dk fg| kr~aztglmaik| bg ~kz`mtmda fg ~zk|kilmg dk |{~kzumt la`kzlmgfk| "zkekzmda| g fg|kr~aztglmaik| k m`~aztglmaik| dk jmkik| } |kzumlma| ugfazgda| ki `mffaik| dk dfgzk|- ~gzg fg hzgi`g}azg dk fa| ga| lai|mdkzgda|)

7==8 7==2 7=== :>>> :>>7 :>>: :>>< :>>4 :>>; :>>5 :>>8 :>>2 :>>= :>7> :>77Demlmt!|{~kzumt 5)

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Demlmt a |{~kzumt la`kzlmgf 7==8:>77 dk fg| kr~aztglmaik| k m`~aztglmaik| dk jmkik| } |kzumlma|"@mffaik| dk [\D-

E{kitk? JLU ":>7:-)



L{gida |k gigfmg fg k|tz{lt{zg dkf la`kzlma mitkziglmaigf dk Ukik{kfg ~az fg ~gztk dk fg|m`~aztglmaik| "EAJ- dk jmkik|& |k aj|kzugi lg`jma| |mhimemlgtmua| ki l{gita g fa| ~g|k| dk azmhki dkk|tg| m`~aztglmaik|& la`~gzgida fa| ga| :>>> } :>77) Ki kf :>>> fa| dmk ~g|k| dk fa| l{gfk|Ukik{kfg m`~azt `g}azmtgzmg`kitk "877 kf ~gtzi dk m`~aztglmaik| dk Ukik{kfg bgjg lg`jmgda |{|tgilmgf`kitk) Fa| dmk ~g|k|dk fa| l{gfk| Ukik{kfg m`~azt `g}azmtgzmg`kitk "8 ~zmilm~gfk| ~g|k| ki fg|m`~aztglmaik| dk Ukik{kfg& :>>>)

:&57+ +

2&4;++


27/72


L{gida |k gigfmg fg k|tz{lt{zg dkf la`kzlma mitkziglmaigf dk Ukik{kfg ~az fg ~gztk dk fg|kr~aztglmaik| "EAJ- dk jmkik| ia ~ktzafkza|& tg`jmi |k aj|kzugi lg`jma| |mhimemlgtmua| ki l{gita gfg| iglmaik| bglmg daidk Ukik{kfg dmzmhk |{| kr~aztglmaik|& la`~gzgida fa| ga| :>>> } :>77) Ki kf:>>> fa| dmk ~g|k| w{k lailkitzgzai k|tg| kr~aztglmaik| "2>+ dkf tatgf kr~aztgda- e{kzai& ki k|tkazdki? K|tgda| [imda|& Lafa`jmg& @rmla& Og~i& Jzg|mf& ^g|k| Jgoa|& Kl{gdaz& ^kz& K|~gg k Mtgfmg)^gzg kf :>77 fg k|tz{lt{zg dk fg| kr~aztglmaik| dk jmkik| ia tzgdmlmaigfk| |k bgjg àdmemlgda& |mkidafa| dmk ~g|k| ~zmilm~gfk| dk|tmia| dk k|tg| kr~aztglmaik| "85+- fa| |mh{mkitk|? Lbmig& K|tgda| [imda|&Lafa`jmg& Jzg|mf& Tzmimdgd } Tajgha& @rmla& Mtgfmg& Ezgilmg& Jfhmlg } Kl{gdaz) Dk|tglg fg k`kzhkilmg dkLbmig laà kf ~zmilm~gf dk|tmia dk fg| kr~aztglmaik| } fg m`~aztgilmg gdw{mzmdg ~az i{kua| dk|tmia|laà Tzmimdgd } Tajgha } Ezgilmg) K|ta| lg`jma| |k ~zad{lki ~gzgfkfg`kitk g {ig lgdg |mhimemlgtmugdkf ugfaz dk fg| kr~aztglmaik| dk jmkik| ia tzgdmlmaigfk| dk {i azdki lkzlgia gf 4>+ ki :>>>:>77)

:&28+

74&78+

:&2>+

:&;&4+

4&4:+

;&:>+

:&2


28/72


^gztmlm~glmi dk fa| \kltazk| Klai`mla| ki

kf ^MJ :>>7 "+ -^ktzfka 72&7&58+

@gi{eglt{zg 75&28+

Kfkltzmlmdgd } gh{g :&72+

Lai|tz{llmi 8&>4+

La`kzlma/ 2&;7+

Tzgi|~aztk } gf`glkig`mkita ;+

\kzumlma| mi`ajmfmgzma|// =&27+

\kzumlma| la`{imtgzma| } ~kz|aigfk|/// 4&;>+

^zad{llmi |kzumlma| dkf Hajmkzia 7>&;=+

Zk|ta//// 5&7>+

^gztmlm~glmi dk fa| \kltazk| Klai`mla| ki

kf ^MJ :>77 "+ -^ktzfka 77&&42+

@gi{eglt{zg 74&45+

Kfkltzmlmdgd } gh{g :&:8+

Lai|tz{llmi 8&:4+

La`kzlma =&57+

Tzgi|~aztk } gf`glkig`mkita


29/72

7==2 7=== :>>> :>>7 :>>: :>>< :>>4 :>>; :>>5 :>>8 :>>2 :>>= :>7> :>77^MJ >&< "5&>- &< "&7- "5&=- 4&: 4&> "5&>- "8&4- 75&7 7:&: 7>&= =&8 ;&8 "7&8- "7&5- 4&;

E{kitk? JLU ":>7:-)

\k aj|kzug w{k d{zgitk kf ~kzmada 7==2:>77 kf dk|k`~ka dkf ^MJ g|almgda g fg gltmumdgd ~ktzafkzgk| `| uaftmf w{k kf lazzk|~aidmkitk ^MJ dk tadg fg gltmumdgd klai`mlg } dkf ^MJ dk fg gltmumdgd ia~ktzafkzg) Fg `g}az ugzmglmi dkf ^MJ ~ktzafkza |k dkjk& kitzk atza| egltazk|& g w{k zk|~aidk g fa||balc| krtkzia| dk aekztg } dk dk`gidg dk ~ktzfka dk fg| klaia`g| g imukf `{idmgf& `| kf kekltadk ugzmgjfk| mitkzig|& la`a fg lgdg zkfgtmug dk fg miukz|mi ki kf |kltaz ~ktzafkza } kf zkfgtmua

dktkzmaza a~kzglmaigf dk fg mid{|tzmg ~ktzafkzg ukikafgig)

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Ugzmglmi dkf ^MJ

Ugzmglmi dkf ^MJ~ktzafkza

Ugzmglmi dkf ^MJ ia~ktzafkza


Ugzmglmi dkf ^MJ& dkf ^MJ ~ktzafkza } dkf ^MJ ia ~ktzafkza 7==2:>77


30/72


D{zgitk 7==8:>77& fg ~zad{llmi dk ~ktzfka ki Ukik{kfg& `kdmdg la`a kf ~za`kdma gi{gf ki`mffaik| dk jgzzmfk| dmgzma|& dm|`mi{} |mhimemlgtmug`kitk) Dmlbg ~zad{llmi gflgi fa| 77) K|tg ~zdmdg dk fglg~glmdgd dk ~zad{llmi dk gfzkdkdaz dk {i `mffi dk jgzzmfk| dmgzma| bg |mda hzgd{gf& ~kza |k bgglkit{gda& ~gzgdomlg`kitk& d{zgitk fa| ga| dkf zk~{itk `| fgzha } |a|tkimda dk fa| ~zklma| dkf

~ktzfka) \khi fg Ghkilmg Mitkziglmaigf dk Kikzhg "GMK& :>7:-& kitzk o{ima } gha|ta dkf :>7: fg~zad{llmi dk ~ktzfka ki Ukik{kfg gflgi {i ~za`kdma dk :&; `mffaik| dk jgzzmfk| dmgzma|& lai {i~atkilmgf dk lg~glmdgd dk ~zad{llmi ki tazia g fa| :&5 `mffaik| dk jgzzmfk| dmgzma|)

^zad{llmi"@mff)Jf!dg-

7==8 > >7 :>>: :&5:>>< :&>4 :&5:>>; :&5:>>5 :&;:>>8 :&4:>>2 :&4:>>= :&::>7> :&::>77 :&

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^zad{llmi~za`kdma gi{gf

dk ~ktzfka "ki`mff) jf!dg-

Kf t e t m tm f m t t t m d f t f tm f ^MJ t t f


31/72


7==2 7=== :>>> :>>7 :>>: :>>< :>>4 :>>; :>>5 :>>8 :>>2 :>>= :>7> :>77

Ugz ^MJ"+- >&< 5 7:-)7;

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Ugzmglmi dkf ^MJ

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dk|k`~ka dkf ^MJ tatgf 7==2:>77& aj|kzuida|k {i zmt`a `| a `kia| |m`mfgz dk uafgtmfmdgd)


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âz atzg ~gztk& |kltazk| laà kf dk fg lai|tz{llmi bgi tkimda {i dk|k`~ka `{} uaftmf& milf{|a `g}azl{gida |k fk la`~gzg lai kf ^MJ tatgf) K|tk k| w{m| kf |kltaz w{k zk|~aidk lai `g}az |ki|mjmfmdgd g fg|ugzmglmaik| dk fg gltmumdgd klai`mlg ki hkikzgf } |k bg um|ta gekltgda ki fa| ftmà ga| ~az ~aftmlg|dk k|tgtmglmi "mid{|tzmg lk`kitkzg-& kr~za~mglmaik|& fk}k| w{k bgi gekltgda kf `kzlgda miàjmfmgzma }laitzafk| dk ~zklma| dk fa| ~zmilm~gfk| mi|{à| "lk`kita& lgjmffg& gzkig- w{k bgi hkikzgda lgdg dk fg

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Fg| tg|g| dk ugzmglmi dk fg ~zad{llmi ghza~kl{gzmg& k|laidki kf bklba dk w{k fg ~zad{llmi `rm`ggflgigdg ~gzg l{gfw{mkz ga dk fg dlgdg :>>>:>7> k| |{~kzmaz& milf{|a `{} |{~kzmaz& g fg lmezg dk~zad{llmi gflgigdg ki kf :>77 ~gzg gfh{ia| z{jza|) K|tk eki`kia |k aj|kzug k|~klmgf`kitk ki faw{k zk|~kltg g fa| lkzkgfk|& fa| l{ftmua| tzgdmlmaigfk|& krlk~t{gida kf lglga& gfh{ia| tkrtmfk| }afkghmia|g|& ~ftgia } lg~zmia|) âz kf laitgzma& fg hzgi `g}azg dk fa| z{jza| ghz{~gda| ki baztgfmg|&

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Ki Ukik{kfg& fg tg|g dk dk|k`~fka dk fg| ftm`g| da| dlgdg| bg tkimda {ig tkidkilmg mik|tgjfkla`a zk|~{k|tg g fg ugzmgjmfmdgd dkf lzklm`mkita dk fg klaia`g } g ~zajfk`g| k|tz{lt{zgfk|zkfglmaigda|& kitzk atza|& lai fg| e{kztk| zmhmdklk| w{k krbmjk kf `kzlgda dk tzgjgoa& ~zad{lta dk fgg~fmlglmi dk {ig hzgi lgitmdgd dk zkh{fglmaik| fgjazgfk|) Fg tg|g dk dk|k`~fka ~az dkjgoa dk {idmhmta dk|dk kf :>>5& ia zkukfg w{k {ig j{kig ~gztk dkf k`~fka ki Ukik{kfg k| |{jk`~fka& `{}

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^gzg kf ~kzmada : |k`k|tzk dkf :>>2 gf : |k`k|tzk dkf :>77& fg e{kzg dk tzgjgoa al{~gdg |kmilzk`kit dk 77)255; tzgjgogdazk| bg|tg 7:)4 tzgjgogdazk|& zk~zk|kitgida {i g{`kita dk4&4+) Fg ugzmglmaik| kitzk g`ja| ~kzmada| lai|mdkzgda| ki fg ~gztmlm~glmi dk fa| tzgjgogdazk| dkf|kltaz eaz`gf "~zmugda-& dkf |kltaz mieaz`gf } dkf |kltaz ~jfmla ki fg e{kzg dk tzgjgoa al{~gdg tatgfzkukfgi {ig fkuk lgdg dkf k`~fka ki kf |kltaz eaz`gf ~zmugda& w{k& glt{gf`kitk |fa zk~zk|kitg {i ~ala`| dk {i tkzlma dk fg ~ajfglmi tzgjgogdazg al{~gdg) Tg`jmi |k zkefkog fg ~kz|m|tkilmg dk fg tg|g dk

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D{zgitk :; ga| "7=25:>77- fg| tg|g| dk miefglmi dk fg klaia`g ukikafgig bgi |mda |{~kzmazk| g {idhmta& lai {i ~mla dk 7>:>77 fg| tg|g| dk miefglmidk fg klaia`g ukikafgig "ugzmglmaik| gl{`{fgdg| dmlmk`jzkdmlmk`jzk } dk|dk kf :>>2 `kdmdg| laikf idmlk iglmaigf dk ~zklma| gf lai|{`mdaz& MI^L- bgi |mda& la`~gzgtmug`kitk& `{lba `| gftg| w{k fg|zk|~kltmug| tg|g| dk miefglmi dk fa| K|tgda| [imda|& fg l{gf d{zgitk kf `m|`a ~kzmada ia e{kzai|{~kzmazk| g ;&;+ gi{gf) Fg jzklbg kitzk kf lzklm`mkita dk fa| ~zklma| mitkzia| lai zk|~klta g fa|

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Fg| gftg| tg|g dk miefglmi |k bgi hkikzgda ki {i laitkrta dk ~zklma| laitzafgda| ~gzg {ig hzgilgitmdgd dk fa| jmkik| } |kzumlma| zk~zk|kitgtmua| dk fg lgig|tg j|mlg } dk fg lgig|tg gfm`kitgzmg{tmfmgda| ~gzg kf lfl{fa dkf MI^L) Fg| tgzmeg| ~gzg fa| |kzumlma| j|mla| k|ti e{kztk`kitk |{j|mdmgdg|&~kza k| kf gfta |{j|mdma g fg hg|afmig kf w{k bg zkd{idgda ki `g}azk| la|ta|) Ukik{kfg k| kf ~g| lai kf~zklma dk fg hg|afmig `| jgzgta dkf `{ida) [i hgfi dk hg|afmig l{k|tg {i ~ala `| dk 2 lkitgua| dk

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Ugz@7

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Kf |a|tkimda milzk`kita dk fg fmw{mdk àiktgzmg eaz`g ~gztk dk fg| lg{|g| w{k bgi azmhmigda tg|g| dkmiefglmi ~az gzzmjg dk {i dhmta aj|kzugdg| ki fg klaia`g ukikafgig ki fg| da| ftm`g| dlgdg|) Fgkr~gi|mi a laitzgllmi dk fg fmw{mdk àiktgzmg bg mief{mda& lai zkgha& ki kf milzk`kita dk fa|~zklma|) Fg tg|g dk miefglmi dk fa| ftmà| ga| bg |mda `kdmdg ki {i k|lkigzma dk ~zklma| laitzafgda|~gzg {ig hzgi lgitmdgd dk jmkik| } |kzumlma| dk fg lgig|tg gfm`kitgzmg } j|mlg& dk `gikzg w{k kfmilzk`kita dk ~zklma| w{k ~{dmkzg hkikzgz kf g{`kita dk fg fmw{mdk |k uk gtki{gda ~az k|tg zgi)


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E{kitk? JLU ":>7:-)Kitazia Klai`mla Ukikafgia) M|gg| Laugzz{jmg| @gzw{mig)

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Ga Tm~a dk

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:>7> :=);>> 277 :=)22= >2) ^gzg emigfk| dk|k~tmk`jzk dkf :>7:& fg| zk|kzug| mitkziglmaigfk| laitgjmfmgzai :4)8;; `mffaik| dk dfgzk|& zkhm|tzgida{ig lgdg dk 7=&;+ l{gida |k la`~gzgi lai kf `m|`a ~kzmada ki kf :>77 ")8;8 `mffaik| dk dfgzk|-)\khi gfh{ig| k|tm`glmaik|& kf `aita a~kzgtmua dk fg| zk|kzug| gflgig ~gzg l{jzmz fg| m`~aztglmaik| dk{ia| ~ala| `k|k|) Ki 7===& lai fg lzkglmi dkf EK@ |k hkikz fg ~a|mjmfmdgd dk laitgz lai {i

laitmihkitk gitmllfmla gitk ~zajgjfk| |balc| ikhgtmua| ki fg dk`gidg } ki fa| ~zklma| dkf ~ktzfka) Iaaj|tgitk& kf hajmkzia fa dk|`gitkf ~g{fgtmig`kitk } dk|dk kf :>77 k|t mia~kzgtmua ki fg ~zltmlg)

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Zk|kzug|Mitkziglmaigfk|7==77 "ki`mffaik| dk [\D-

Eaida dkK|tgjmfmglmi@glzaklai`mlg"EK@- 7===:>77"ki mffaik| dk[\D-

E{kitk? JLU ":>7:-)Kitazia Klai`mla Ukikafgia) M|gg| Laugzz{jmg| @gzw{mig)

Zk|kzug| mitkziglmaigfk| } EK@ 7==77 "@mffaik| dk [\D-


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Kitazia dk fg ~zad{ltmumdgd } dk fg la`~ktmtmumdgd


Kf mihzk|a ~kz l~mtg dk Ukik{kfg "`kdmda ki dfgzk| lazzmkitk| lai kf `tada ^^G- t{ua {i


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Mihzk|a^^G [\D

Mihzk|a^^G [\D

Mihzk|a^^G [\D

7=27 ;28> 7==7 8;2> :>>7 255>7=2: ;85> 7==: 822> :>>: 888>7=2< ;;;> 7==< 8=>> :>>< 8:>>7=24 ;5:> 7==4 858> :>>4 2;8>7=2; ;54> 7==; 2>;> :>>; =88>

7=25 5>5> 7==5 2>:> :>>5 77>>>7=28 5:4> 7==8 242> :>>8 7:7=22 58>> 7==2 242> :>>2 7:=7>7=2= 5>4> 7=== 2>4> :>>= 7:>7==> 52>> :>>> 2 :>7> 7:>4>

:>77 7:5:>

h ~ ~ " -milzk`kita dk 7&2+ d{zgitk 7=277==>& } dk 7&>+ d{zgitk 7==7:>>>& ~kzmada| d{zgitk kf l{gf kfmihzk|a ~zltmlg`kitk |k k|tgil) D{zgitk :>>7:>77 kf lzklm`mkita dk ;&8+ dkf mihzk|a |{~{|a {im`~aztgitk zk~{itk) Ta`gida ki l{kitg kf ~kzmada 7=27:>77& fg tg|g dk lzklm`mkita ~za`kdma gi{gf~gzg k|tg| tzk| dlgdg| k| dk :&8+) \khi |{ imukf dk mihzk|a "7:)5:> [\D ^^G& :>77- Ukik{kfg k| {i~g| dk mihzk|a `kdma gfta)

E{kitk? Jgila @{idmgf & Xazfd dgtgJgic":>7:-) Kitazia Klai`mla Ukikafgia) M|gg| Laugzz{jmg| @gzw{mig)

Mihzk|a ~kz l~mtg dk Ukik{kfg 7=27:>77"[\D lazzmkitk|& ^^G-

>

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Mihzk|a ~kzl~mtg7=27:>77& [\Dlazzmkitk

Ki 7=27 Ukik{kfg tkig kf `g}az mihzk|a ~kz l~mtg "`kdmda ki dfgzk| lazzmkitk|& ^^G- dk \{zg`zmlg


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^g|k| 7=27 :>77 @ftm~fa

Ukik{kfg ;)28> 7:)5:> :&:

Gzhkitmig 4)88> 78):;> 8> 4)=:> :&4Jzg|mf 77);>> 75)75> 5&4

Lafa`jmg :)8 =)54> 2) :&=

^gzgh{g} :):5> ;) :&4

^kz > 7>)75> => 74)84> 4&5

B{ihzg ;);;> :>) :4); 4& 7;)7=> ;&=

Lazkg dkf \{z :)58> ):=> 77&4

E{kitk? Jgila @{idmgf & Xazfd dgtgJgic":>7:- } lfl{fa| ~za~ma|)

} h ~ ~ " -} kzg |{~kzmaz gf dk @rmla } ^gig`) Tkig {i mihzk|a zkfgtmug`kitk |m`mfgz gf dk B{ihzg } ^azt{hgf }`| dkf dajfk dkf zk|~kltmua mihzk|a dk @gfg|mg } Lazkg dkf \{z) Tzk| dlgdg| dk|~{|& Ukik{kfg k||{~kzgdg ki mihzk|a ~kz l~mtg ~az Gzhkitmig& Lbmfk } [z{h{g}& gf mh{gf w{k ~az @rmla } ^gig`) Ki kf:>77 kf mihzk|a dk B{ihzg }g kzg {i 4>+ |{~kzmaz gf ukikafgia3 kf mihzk|a dk ^azt{hgf kf dajfk& kf dk@gfg|mg {i :>+ |{~kzmaz } kf dk Lazkg dkf \{z :&4 uklk| `| gfta) Ukik{kfg e{k kf ~g| dk fg `{k|tzg

w{k t{ua kf `ftm~fa `| jgoa ~gzg kf lzklm`mkita dk |{ mihzk|a ~kz l~mtg ki kf ~kzmada 7=27:>77)


Mihzk|a ~kz l~mtg 7=27 } :>77 "[\D lazzmkitk|-) Ukik{kfg } ~g|k| |kfkllmaigda|

>

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Mihzk|a ~kzl~mtg 7=27

Mihzk|a ~kzl~mtg :>77

Kf `ghza lzklm`mkita dkf mihzk|a ~kz l~mtg dk Ukik{kfg ki fg| ftm`g| tzk| dlgdg|& bg k|tgda


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g|almgda& kitzk atza| egltazk|& gf lzklm`mkita ikhgtmua dk fg ~zad{ltmumdgd& lai|mdkzgida kf ugfazghzkhgda ~az ~kz|aig k`~fkgdg } kf ugfaz ghzkhgda ~az bazg tzgjgogdg ~gzg kf ~kzmada 7=287==; }7==::>>>) F{kha |k zkl{~kzg } lzklk ~a|mtmug`kitk d{zgitk :>>>:>>2& g{iw{k kf :>>= } :>7> bgizk~zk|kitgda {i i{kua dklzklm`mkita dk 4&4+ } >>

UgfazGhzkhgda~az bazg

tzgjgogdg7==::>>>

UgfazGhzkhgda

~az ~kz|aigk`~fkgdg:>>>:>>2

UgfazGhzkhgda~az bazgtzgjgogdg:>>>:>>2

K|~gg :&7 :&< 7&7 7&: >&: >&=

Mzfgidg &= 2&=

Midmg

@rmla >&7 >&< 7&7 >&2 >&5 >&5

Lafa`jmg >&8 >&= >&5 >&8 :&< :&&: >&5 7&= :&7 >&2 >&2

Ukik{kfg >&8 >&5 :&< :&;


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dk fg ~ajfglmi) G{iw{k fg tg|g dk k|lafgzmdgd ~za`kdma "ga| dk kd{lglmi- dk fg ~ajfglmiukikafgig g{`kit d{zgitk kf ~kzmada 7=5>:>7> ia fa bma g {i zmtà |{emlmkitk laà ~gzggflgigz fg| tg|g| dk k|lafgzmdgd w{k krbmjki fa| ~g|k| dk|gzzaffgda|& k|t ~az dkjgoa dk fg tg|g dkk|lafgzmdgd ~za`kdma dk G`zmlg Fgtmig } kf Lgzmjk "GFL- } bg |mda |{~kzgdg ~az ~g|k| w{k tkigi ki7=5> {ig tg|g dk k|lafgzmdgd miekzmaz "Lafa`jmg& Lbmig-) âz atzg ~gztk& |khi {i mieaz`k dk fg

[IMLKE& ki Ukik{kfg {i ima dk fa| k|tzgta| |almaklai`mla| gfta| dk fg aig {zjgig tmkik {ig gftg~zajgjmfmdgd dk tkikz alba "2- ga| `| dk k|lafgzmdgd w{k {i ima dk fa| k|tzgta| |almaklai`mla|jgoa| dk fg aig {zjgig)

^g|k| 7=5> 7=2> :>>> :>7> Ugz

K|tgda| [imda| =&7; 7:&>< 7:&87 7:&:>


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^g|k| :>>> :>7> ~za`kdma

Lbmig >&4;5 >&442 >&4;:

Lazkg dkf \{z >& >&4&47&&&&;87 >&;>; >&;&22; >&2>< >&244

@rmla >&&47> >&&;;: >&;28 >&;8>

Jafmumg >&8;4 >&2 >&8=:

Jzg|mf >&;7> >&;7= >&;7;Lbmfk >&848 >&8;2 >&8;&5&54> >&5&8;= >&872 >&8&858 >&84= >&8;2

^kz >&824 >&85: >&88&574 >&58: >&54&8=2 >&85: >&82>

la`~ktmtmumdgd mitkziglmaigf) [i midmlgdaz dk la`~ktmtmumdgd k| kf idmlk dk dmukz|memlglmi dk fg|kr~aztglmaik|& kf l{gf `mdk w{k tgi dmukz|memlgdg| |ai fg| kr~aztglmaik| dk {i ~g| lai jg|k ki kfi`kza dk ~zad{lta| w{k kr~aztg ki zkfglmi lai kf tatgf dk ~zad{lta| kr~aztgda| g imukf `{idmgf) [iidmlk dk > |kzg {ig |mt{glmi ki fg w{k {i ~g| kr~aztg fg tatgfmdgd dk ~zad{lta| kr~aztgda| g imukf`{idmgf& 7 |kzg {ig |mt{glmi ki fg w{k {i ~g| ia kr~aztg imihi ~zad{lta) Kitzk `| lkzlgia g 7 |kg

kf idmlk `kia| dmukz|memlgdg ki kr~aztglmaik| |kz fg klaia`g dk {i ~g|) Fg klaia`g ukikafgigtmkik {i jgoa idmlk dk dmukz|memlglmi dk kr~aztglmaik|& lai|mdkzgida fa| ga| :>>> } :>7> } kila`~gzglmi lai fa| dk`| ~g|k| |{zg`kzmlgia| } ~g|k| dk|gzzaffgda|)

E{kitk? [ILTGD ":>77-) Kitazia Klai`mla Ukikafgia) M|gg| Laugzz{jmg| @gz {mig)

idmlk dk dmukz|memlglmi dk kr~aztglmaik|& Ukik{kfg } ~g|k| |kfkllmaigda|& :>>> } :>7>

Fg ~gztmlm~glmi zkfgtmug dk fg| kr~aztglmaik| dk `gi{eglt{zg| ki kf tatgf dk kr~aztglmaik|


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:>>5 :>7>

Gzhkitmig &; 7>&4

Lafa`jmg &8

^kz 7:&> 7>&=

[z{h{g} >5 } :>7>& `{k|tzgi w{k fg klaia`g ukikafgig |k bg w{kdgda zkghgdg kizkfglmi gf dmig`m|à kr~aztgdaz dk |{ |kltaz `gi{eglt{zkza) âz kf laitzgzma& g ~k|gz dk w{k ki fg~zltmlg bg a~kzgda {i ~zalk|a dk lmkzta imukf dk zk~zm`gzmglmi dk fg| kr~aztglmaik||{zg`kzmlgig|& laà keklta e{idg`kitgf`kitk dkf mitkzlg`jma la`kzlmgf lai Lbmig& atza| ~g|k||{zg`kzmlgia| laà Gzhkitmig } Jzg|mf }& ki `kiaz `kdmdg [z{h{g} } Lafa`jmg & `gitmkiki {i imukf

zkfgtmua m`~aztgitk dk kr~aztglmi dk `gi{eglt{zg| |ajzk fg| kr~aztglmaik| tatgfk|)

E{kitk? LK^GF ":>7:-)

/Ia bg} dgta zkhm|tzgda ki kf Gi{gzma ~gzg kf ga :>7>)

^gztmlm~glmi dk fg| kr~aztglmaik| `gi{eglt{zkzg| ki fg| kr~aztglmaik| tatgfk| "ki ~azlkitgok-)Ukik{kfg } dk`| ~g|k| |{zg`kzmlgia| :>>5 } :>7>)


Kf ~azlkitgok dk fg| kr~aztglmaik| dk ~zad{lta| dk gftg tkliafahg lai zkfglmi gf tatgf kr~aztgda dk


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7==> :>>> :>7>

Gzhkitmig =+ =+

Jafmumg ;+

Jzg|mf 8+ 7=+ 74+

Lbmfk ;+ & :>>> } :>7>


Kf k|t{dma dkf Xazfd Klaia`ml Eaz{` "XKE- |ajzk fg la`~ktmtmumdgd mitkziglmaigf gjgzlg fa| |mh{mkitk|


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midmlgdazk|? 7- Mi|tmt{lmaik|3 :- Miezgk|tz{lt{zg3


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Ki da| g|~klta| lfguk| dk fg la`~ktmtmumdgd? kf zaf w{k l{`~fki fg| mi|tmt{lmaik| } fg lgfmdgd dk fgmiezgk|tz{lt{zg& Ukik{kfg krbmjk ugfazk| ~gzg fa| midmlgdazk| "ki fg k|lgfg dkf 78- dkemlmkitk|&la`~gzgda lai fa| ~g|k| `| la`~ktmtmua| k milf{|a ~gzg fa| k|tidgzk| dk fg zkhmi dk GFL)

La`~ktmtmumdgd ki gfh{ia| midmlgdazk| zkfglmaigda| lai fg| mi|tmt{lmaik| } fg lgfmdgd dk fg miezgk|tz{lt{zg:>7::>7-

Ukik{kfg/

Emifgidmg

Lazkg dkf \{z

Lbmfk

Lafa`jmg

Fg AI[DM kfgjazg kf idmlk dk Zkidm`mkita Mid{|tzmgf La`~ktmtmua "MZML-& jg|gda ki? 7- lg~glmdgd


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mid{|tzmgf& `kdmda ~az kf ugfaz `gi{eglt{zkza ~kz l~mtg3 :- lg~glmdgd dk kr~aztglmi dk `gi{eglt{zg|&`kdmda ~az fg kr~aztglmi dk `gi{eglt{zg| ~kz l~mtg3 >; } :>>= ~gzg Ukik{kfg } ugzma|~g|k| zkukfg fg jgog la`~ktmtmumdgd zkfgtmug dkf |kltaz mid{|tzmgf `gi{eglt{zkza ukikafgia)

Zgicmih ^g| :>>; :>>=

7 \mihg~{z >&5&54:

: K|tgda| [imda| >&55> >&5&557 >&5:2

4 Gfk`gimg >&;=2 >&;=8

; Lbmig >&457 >&;;8

8 Lazkg dkf \{z >&4&42>:= K|~gg >&:=< >&:=7

@rmla >&:25 >&:25

47 La|tg Zmlg >&:>2 >&:7;

44 Jzg|mf >&:7: >&:>:

84 Lafa`jmg >&74> >&7&7&7


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"^]@K-& k|t `{} zkfglmaigdg lai fg eglmfmdgd dk gllk|a gf lzdmta w{k ~{kdgi tkikz) Da| midmlgdazk|dkf imukf dk gllk|a emigilmkza ki {ig klaia`g |ai ? 7- dk~|mta| |ajzk ^MJ } :- lzdmta |ajzk ^MJ) Fa|~azlkitgok| ~gzg Ukik{kfg& ki kf :>77& |ai 4>&>+ } :5&>+ zk|~kltmug`kitk3 `{} g fg ghg dk fa|~azlkitgok| gflgigda| ~az Lbmig } ki ~g|k| dk|gzzaffgda| laà K|~gg& Iaz{khg } Lazkg dkf \{z)Gdk`|& ~kza ki `kiaz `kdmdg& ~az dktz| dk fa| ~azlkitgok| w{k krbmjki ~g|k| k`kzhkitk| laà

Jzg|mf& Midmg } Z{|mg) Fg k|lg|g ~zae{idmdgd emigilmkzg dk fg klaia`g ukikafgig tg`jmi |k g~zklmgki fg zkfgtmug`kitk jgog tg|g dk jgilgzmglmi "~azlkitgok dk fg ~ajfglmi gd{ftg w{k ~a|kk {igl{kitg jgilgzmg- fg l{gf zaidg kf ;>+) \k k|tm`g w{k |afa gfzkdkdaz dk 7;:>+ dk fg| ^]@Kukikafgig| gllkdk g gfhi tm~a dk lzdmta eaz`gf)

Dk~|mta|!^MJ "ki ~azlkitgok- ":>77- Lzdmta!^MJ "ki ~azlkitgok- ":>77-

E{kitk? E@M& Emigilmgf Gllk|| \{zuk}":>7:-) Kitazia Klai`mla Ukikafgia) M|gg| Laugzz{jmg| @gzw{mig)

82&:+

::&8+

4&>+ 7>>&>+ 7;>&>+ :>>&>+

K|~gg

Gzhkitmig

âfaimg

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Lbmfk

Lafa`jmg

Midmg

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Lbmig

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La|tg Zmlg

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Lazkg dkf \{z

Ki {i g|~klta lfguk dk fg la`~ktmtmumdgd mitkziglmaigf& laà k| kf dk|gzzaffa "{|{gzma|& dm|~aimjmfmdgd&


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zkh{fglmaik|& ikhalma|& lg~glmtglmi& miezgk|tz{lt{zg- ki kf `jmta dk fg| tkliafahg| dk mieaz`glmi }la`{imlglmi "TML-& Ukik{kfg |k kil{kitzg ki lfgzg dk|ukitgog dk atza| ~g|k|) Tbk Hfajgf Mieaz`gtmaiTklbiafah} Zk~azt :>7>:>77& {i k|t{dma kfgjazgda ~az kf XKE& gigfmg ugzma| g|~klta| zkfglmaigda|lai fg la`~ktmtmumdgd dk fg| TML& kitzk atza|? 7- dm|~aimjmfmdgd dk fg ftm`g| tkliafahg|3 :- ~zatkllmidk fg ~za~mkdgd mitkfklt{gf3 - |kzumlma| dkf hajmkzia ki fikg) Fa|~g|k| `| la`~ktmtmua| ki l{gita g fg dm|~aimjmfmdgd } {|a dk zkl{z|a| zkfglmaigda| lai fg| TML |ai?\{klmg& \mihg~{z& Emifgidmg& \{mg& K|tgda| [imda|& Tgmxi& Dmig`gzlg& Lgigd& Iaz{khg } Lazkg dkf \{z)Kf ~g| fgtmiag`kzmlgia `koaz ~a|mlmaigda k| Lbmfk "7 `koaz- 88 >&

E{kitk? XKE ":>77-)

Ugzma| midmlgdazk| dk la`~ktmtmumdgd ki dm|~aimjmfmdgd } {|a dk TML ki Ukik{kfg :>7>:>77


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Lfm`g dk ikhalma| } dk miukz|maik|


Kf lfm`g dk ikhalma| } dk miukz|maik| zk`mtk g gigfmgz w{ tgi elmf a dmelmf k| bglkz ikhalma| } zkgfmgz


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miukz|maik| ki {i dktkz`migda ~g|& zkhmi a tkzzmtazma) Kf Jgila @{idmgf kfgjazg dk|dk kf :>>4 kfDamih J{|mik|| ^zaokltw{k k| {i k|t{dma la`~gzgtmua dk fa| aj|tl{fa| "zkh{fglmaik|& tz`mtk|& la|ta|-krm|tkitk| ki {ig klaia`g ~gzg zkgfmgz ikhalma| k miukz|maik|) Kf Damih J{|mik|| k|t laieaz`gda~az 7> midmlgdazk|? 7- G~kzt{zg dk {i ikhalma3 :- @gikoa dk ~kz`m|a| dk lai|tz{llmi3 - Zk|af{lmi dkmi|afukilmg|) Ki Damih J{|mik|| :>7&>

Lbmfk &>Lafa`jmg 57 2 7< 8&< >&>

H{gtk`gfg 78: 7: 4> 42&7 :>&=

K|~gg 7 :2 4&8 7&5 >&>

Imhkzmg 77= 2 &4 >&>

G~kzt{zg dk {i Ikhalma) Ukik{kfg } ~g|k| |kfkllmaigda|

E{kitk? Jgila @{idmgf& Damih J{|mik|| :>7< ":>7:-) Kitazia Klai`mla Ukikafgia) M|gg| Laugzz{jmg| @gzw{mig)

Ki Ukik{kfg ia |afa k| dmelmf gjzmz {i ikhalma& dgdg fg hzgi lgitmdgd dk tz`mtk| w{k bg} w{k


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zkgfmgz } kf fgzha tmk`~a zkfgtmua w{k ffkug bglkz dmlba| tz`mtk|& tg`jmi k| dmelmf } kihazza|a kftzgtg`mkita dk fg| |mt{glmaik| dk mi|afukilmg a w{mkjzg dk k`~zk|g|) Kf midmlgdaz dk zk|af{lmi dkmi|afukilmg| k|t la`~{k|ta dk tzk| |{jidmlk|? g- kf tmk`~a ~za`kdma "ki ga|- w{k ffkug lkzzgz {igk`~zk|g3 j- kf la|ta ~za`kdma "la`a ~azlkitgok dk fa| jmkik|- dk fa| ~zalkdm`mkita| dk w{mkjzg } l-fg tg|g dk zkl{~kzglmi "ki lkitgua| ~az dfgz- dk fa| glzkkdazk|& ghkilmg tzmj{tgzmg } k`~fkgda| dk{ig k`~zk|g mi|afukitk)

ZgicmihMidmlgdaz

Tmk`~a"ga|-

La|ta"+ jmkik|-

Tg|g dkzkl{~kzglmi

"lkitgua| ~az dfgz-

Ukik{kfg 75< 4&> 7: 7;&=

Lafa`jmg :7 7&< 5 85&:

@rmla :5 7&2 72 58& 7&; 77 85&;

K|tgda| [imda| 75 7&; 8 27&;

Midmg 775 4&< = :5&>

Og~i 7 >&5 4 =:&2

T{zw{g 7:4


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ZgicmihMidmlgdaz

^zalkdm`mkita|"i`kza-

Tmk`~a"dg|-

La|ta"+ mihzk|a ~!bgj)-

Ukik{kfg 7>= 7> 2&;

^gzgh{g} 87 7: 7

Tgmxi "Lbmig- = 77 =4 75&7>& lai|mdkzgida |{jmidmlgdazk| laà kf hzgda dktzgi|~gzkilmg dk fg| tzgi|gllmaik|& fg zk|~ai|gjmfmdgd dk fa| dmzkltmua| } fg| eglmfmdgdk| ~gzg w{k fa|gllmaim|tg| `miazmtgzma| ~{kdgi kitgjfgz o{mlma| laitzg |ta|) Ukik{kfg krbmjk {ig |mhimemlgtmugdkjmfmdgd ki l{gita g fg ~zatkllmi dk k|tk tm~a dk miukz|maik| "~za`kdma |m`~fk dk :&< dk fa| tzk|

|{jidmlk|-) Ki laitzg|tk& Lafa`jmg dk|tglg ~az fg g`~fmg ~zatkllmi w{k jzmidg g fa| miukz|maim|tg|&milf{|a |{~kzmaz g fg dk ~g|k| dk|gzzaffgda| laà K|~gg } k`kzhkitk| laà Z{|mg)

/Fa| ugfazk| dk fa| midmlgdazk| kitzk ~gzitk|m| lazzk|~aidki g Ukik{kfg)E{kitk? Jgila @{idmgf& Damih J{|mik|| :>7< ":>7:-)

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Eaztgfkg dk ~zatkllmidk miukz|azk| ":&


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ZgicmihMidmlgdaz

^gha| "i`kza~az ga-

Tmk`~a "bazg|~az ga-

Ukik{kfg 72; 87 8=:

Gzhkitmig 74= = 4>;

Jafmumg 72> 4: 7)>:;Jzg|mf 7;5 = :)5>>

Lafa`jmg == = :> 7:-)

Kf la`kzlma tzgi|ezaitkzma k| {i midmlgdaz w{k `mdk fa| la|ta| } fa| ~zalkdm`mkita| k|tidgz ~gzg f d e f d


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ZgicmihMidmlgdaz

Dal{`kita|~gzgkr~aztgz"i`kza-

Tmk`~a~gzgkr~aztgz"dg|-

La|ta| dkkr~aztglmi"$ [\ ~azlaitkikdaz-

Dal{`kita|^gzgm`~aztgz"i`kza-

Tmk`~a~gzgm`~aztgz"dg|-

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Ukik{kfg 755 2 4= :);=> = 87 :)252Lafa`jmg =7 ; 74 :):;; 5 7< :)2

^kz 5> 5 7: 2=> 5 78 22>

La|tg Zmlg ;7 5 7< 7)> 5 74 7)>:>

K|~gg 5 = 7)

Lgigd 44 < 8 7)57> 4 77 7)55>

Iaz{khg :7 4 8 7)7:; ; 8 7)7>>

Baih Caih : 4 ; ;8; 4 ; ;5;

Lazkg dkf \{z < < 8 55; < 8 5=;

Gzhkfmg 7:= 2 78 7):5> = :8 7)7:-)

Ukik{kfg tmkik {ig klaia`g w{k k| lfg|memlgdg la`a {ig klaia`g zk~zm`mdg ki kf idmlk dkFmj d m f j b B m d m dm d d 7>


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Fmjkztgd Klai`mlg w{k kfgjazg Tbk Bkzmtghk Ea{idgtmai) K|tk idmlk ghzkhgda k|tg la`~{k|ta dk 7>midmlgdazk| zkfglmaigda| lai fg fmjkztgd klai`mlg& ghz{~gda| ki l{gtza dm`ki|maik|? g- K|tgda dkdkzklba? 7- Dkzklba| dk ~za~mkdgd3 :- Fmjkztgd ezkitk g fg lazz{~lmi3 j- Fm`mtglmi gf hajmkzia? - Fmjkztgd emigilmkzg) Ki kf mieaz`k dkf :>7:& Ukik{kfg ajt{ua {ig ~{it{glmi dk 7>> ~{ita| } al{~ fg ~a|mlmi 784 kitzk 724 iglmaik| kugf{gdg|) Fg egftg dkfmjkztgdk| klai`mlg| milmdk ikhgtmug`kitk ki kf dk|k`~ka dk fg klaia`g ukikafgig)

idmlk dk Fmjkztgd Klai`mlg :>7: ~gzg gfh{ia| ~g|k| dk|gzzaffgda| } dk G`zmlg Fgtmig

^g| ^{k|ta ^{ita| ^g| ^{k|ta ^{ita| ^g| ^{k|ta ^{ita|

Baih Caih 7 2=&= K|~gg

Lbmfk 8 82&< H{gtk`gfg 2: 5>&= Mzi 787 4:& 87: :>77::>7>>:>77 Ukik{kfg |k zkgh dk eaz`g `gzlgdg ki fg


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GA\ GZH JAF JZG LBM LAF KL[ ^Z] ^KZ [Z[ UKI:>>> 7>)472&< 8 7>4&7 2>=&8 :87&>:>>7 :)755&7 8>&: :);;>&> :)7>< 7)5;:&> 7=4&= 7>)74&; 287&; :;&> 7)4>&>:>>4 4)7:4&8 2:&5 72)74;&= 8)78:&8 7;&5 2 ; ;):5;&< :=>&2 7;)>55&< 5)=2):;:&> 4=>5 ;); :87&4 =;&> :>>8 5)48>2 =)8:;&5 ;>8&5 4;)>;2&: 7;)7;>&> 7>)57=&5 7)>>;&2 :>2&; 5)=:;&8 7)7=;&>

:>>= 4)>78&: 4:;&8 :;)=42&5 7:)284&> 8)77> 8)>;;&> 587&2 42);>5&> 7;)>=;&> 5)2==&< 7;8&4 ::8&2 8) :)42=&>:>77 8):4&> 78):==)> 7

E{kitk? LK^GF ":>7:- } lfl{fa| ~za~ma|

krtzgiokzg dmzkltg "MKD-) Lai|mdkzgida kf ~kzmada :>>> :>77& Ukik{kfg |k zkgh dk eaz`g `gzlgdg ki fglg~tglmi dk MKD la`~gzgda lai atza| ~g|k| |{zg`kzmlgia| la`a Jzg|mf& Gzhkitmig& Lbmfk& Lafa`jmg } ^kz)Dk bklba& e{k fg imlg klaia`g dk fg| `kilmaigdg| w{k kr~kzm`kit& ki kf :>>=& {ig dk|miukz|mi dk MKD)


MKD "ki @mffaik| dk [\D- Ukik{kfg } dk`| ~g|k| |{zg`kzmlgia|& :>>>:>77 } gl{`{fgda

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w{k |ai fa| ef{oa| dk gltmua| ki `aikdg| } dk~|mta| ki dfgzk| w{k |gfki dkf ~g|) G ~k|gz dk fgkrm|tkilmg dk {i laitzaf dkf tm~a dk lg`jma dk|dk kf :>>>8& la`a fa

zkukfgi fa| dgta| zk|~kltmua| dkf ~kzmada :>>>:>77) \k k|tm`g w{k d{zgitk k|tk ~kzmada fg |gfmdg dklg~mtgfk| e{k dkf azdki dk 7;>)>>> `mffaik| dk dfgzk|)

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\gfmdg dk lg~mtgfk|"@mff $-/ 8)= =)4=: :)247 8)844 77);>4 5);=8 75);>2 72):52 :


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^g| K@JM72!7>!7:

K@JMbglk => ==7

Jzg|mf 74 :45

Lbmfk 7 7=5

Kl{gdaz 858 2;7 2=:

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^kz =7 75; :7>

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Bglk < `k|k|

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E{kitk? Lk|fg ":>7:-)

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ukikafgia| k| kw{mugfkitk g =:2 ~j& k| dklmz& =&:2+ dk tg|g dk mitkz| gdmlmaigf g fg tg|g dk mitkz| w{k~ghg {ig fktzg dkf tk|aza iaztkg`kzmlgia)

K@JM gf 72!7>!7:& bglk < `k|k| } bglk 7 ga dk Ukik{kfg } ugzma|~g|k| k`kzhkitk| |{zg`kzmlgia|

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dk fg dk{dg ~jfmlg krtkzig ukikafgig& |m |k gigfmg kf ~kzmada :>>> :>77& fg ugzmglmi dkf mihzk|a~ktzafkza |k bg lazzkfglmaigda dk `gikzg m`~kzekltg lai kf idmlk dk zmk|ha ~g| "~za`kdma dkf ga-) KfK@JM |k bg kfkugda ki gfh{ia| ga| ki fa| w{k kf mihzk|a ~ktzafkza tg`jmi |k bg milzk`kitgda)K|~klmgf`kitk g ~gztmz dkf :>>8& fg| ugzmglmaik| dkf zmk|ha ~g| ~gzklki k|tgz `| g|almgdg| lai atza|egltazk|& la`a kf dk|eguazgjfk lfm`g dk ikhalma| } dk miukz|maik| } gf k|lg|a hzgda dk fmjkztgd

klai`mlg ~zk|kitk ki fg klaia`g ukikafgig& w{k lai kf la`~aztg`mkita dk |{ ~zmilm~gf lafgtkzgf)

E{kitk? JLU ":>7:-& Lk|fg ":>7:- } lfl{fa| ~za~ma|)

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Zkfglmi kitzk Zmk|ha ^g| "~za`kdma dkf ga- k mihzk|a ~ktzafkza :>>>:>77

Zkekzkilmg| |ajzk dgta| } k|tgd|tmlg|
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GMK ":>7:-) Amf @gzckt Zk~azt) \k~tk`jkz) Ki Fikg? btt~?!!a`z~{jfml)mkg)azh!l{zzkitm||{k|!e{ff)~deGMK ":>77-) Xazfd Kikzh} A{tfaac) Ki fikg? btt~?!!xxx)xazfdkikzh}a{tfaac)azh!Jg~tm|tg& G) ":>7:-) Fg dm|tzmj{lmi dk fa| mihzk|a|) Dmgzma Kf @{ida Klaia`g } Ikhalma|& = dk alt{jzk)Jg~tm|tg& G) ":>>>-) [i j{ki i`kza 0 {ig j{kig ~gfgjzg Ki? Ukik{kfg |mhfa RR) Um|maik| } tk|tmàima|) Taà MM)Lgzglg|? E{idglmi âfgz)

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AMT ":>>2-) Kuaf{lmi dk fa| \gfgzma| ki G`zmlg Fgtmig 7==;:>>5) Dal{`kita Tlimla& \gitmgha dk Lbmfk& alt{jzk)AMT ":>77- C M dm t e tb F j @ c t \ tb Kdmtm K f btt !!cmf mf !cmf t!
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Análisis del entorno económico venezolano

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