CMI_2CUADRO DE MANDO INTEGRALOBJETIVOPROYECTORESPONSABLESINDICADORFREQ MEDICIONRESULTADOALERTATIR de 95% ponderadoSistema Integrado cliente-terceroGerente GeneralVAN PONDERADOMensual333,871.42Lograr una eficiencia de costos de 64% en escenario pesimistaSistema logstico de subasta electrnicaGerente GeneralCostos variables/ventasMensual77.00%

Ficha TIR

FICHA DE INDICADOR

DescripcionTIRRelacin mapaRI, C2, C3

Medicin :Tasa Interna de RetornoFrecuencia Mensual

Fuente CruceSimulacin Resultados

Indicador Estrategico

Proyecto VinculadoProyecto de ampliacin de capacidad

Meta: 50% a fines del 2016mesIndicador (proyectado)MetaSealMedidasAo 1333,87182,000CUMPLEAo 2085,000ALERTAAo 3087,500ALERTAAo 4090,400ALERTAAo 5095,400ALERTA

Ficha_costos

FICHA DE INDICADOR

DescripcionCostos variablesRelacin mapaRI, C2, C3

Medicin :Porcentaje costos sobre ventasFrecuencia Mensual

Fuente CruceSimulacin Resultados

Indicador Estrategico

Proyecto VinculadoSistema logstico de adquisiciones por subasta electrnica

Meta: 64% en situacin pesimistamesIndicador (proyectado)MetaSealMedidasAo 177.00%75.00%CUMPLEAo 2073.60%ALERTAAo 3070.00%ALERTAAo 4067.50%ALERTAAo 5064.00%ALERTA

Credito Banco

Efecto de la Deuda en la Rentabilidad

La empresa financia la inversin con aporte de $500 y un prstamo de $500 a pagar en 10 aos en cuotas iguales.Cul es el efecto en la rentabilidad?

InversinAporte0.0Prstamo11,500plazo524%Tasa de inters14%ERROR:#REF!

Amortizacin con cuotas o pagos igualesPeriodoS.I.InteresesAmort.PagoS.F.111,500.001,610.001,739.763,349.769,760.2429,760.241,366.431,983.333,349.767,776.9137,776.911,088.772,260.993,349.765,515.9245,515.92772.232,577.533,349.762,938.3952,938.39411.372,938.393,349.760.00

Tablero datosPRECIOINVERSIONIMPUESTOTASACOSTES FIJOSCOSTE UNITARIODEPRECIACIONMAQUINARIA128.00-25,000.0030.00%14.00%24,000.0076.8020.00%20,000.00DATOS PARA CONSTRUIR ESCENARIOS (CON QUARTILES)88.32ESCENARIOPROBABILIDAD AO 1PROBABILIDAD (AO 2)PROBABILIDAD PONDERADATEVTIETEMCRECIM. VENTASVPATPTIMCCRECIM. COSTESCOSTE VARIABLEOPTIMISTA2.80%15.00%12.56%48.75%4.80%35.00%6.75%11.25%12.50%9.25%2.25%60.00%AO 1AO 2MEDIO18.10%25.00%23.62%43.00%2.50%43.00%5.35%27.50%14.13%5.00%4.50%69.00%PRECIO UNIT.COSTO UNITARIOPRECIO UNIT.COSTO UNITARIOPESIMISTA79.10%60.00%63.82%26.00%1.15%55.00%2.25%43.75%16.88%1.00%6.50%77.00%OPTIMISTA128.0076.8128.0034.6612228483MEDIO128.0088.32128.0035.5885779868PESIMISTA128.0098.56128.0037.5706401809ESCENARIOEL CONSORCIO GANEGANE EL CONTRATONO GANEPONDERADOTEVTIETEMCRECIM.VPATPTIMCCRECIM. COSTESOPTIMISTA28.00%10.00%90.00%2.80%26%0.90%35%2%10%12%1%2%MEDIO37.00%30.00%70.00%18.10%39%1.90%40%3%15%14%3%3%PESIMISTA35.00%20.00%80.00%79.10%41%2.00%41%4%25%14.50%4%3.50%45%3.00%45%5.80%30%16%6%5.50%50%3.20%46%6%40%16.50%7%6%4.80%55%7%55%18%10%7%

CALCULOSOPTIMISTAAO OAO 1AO 2AO 3AO 4AO 5INGRESOSMETROS600.002,300.392,455.672,621.432,798.37PRECIO UNITARIO128.00128.00128.00128.00128.00TOTAL INGRESOS76,800.00294,450.37314,325.77335,542.76358,191.90

EGRESOSCOSTE DIRECTO46,080.0079,734.4581,528.4883,362.8785,238.53COSTES FIJOS24,000.0024,000.0024,000.0024,000.0024,000.00DEPRECIACION4,000.004,000.004,000.004,000.004,000.00COSTO FINANCIERO1,610.001,366.431,088.77772.23411.37IMPUESTOS333.0055,604.8561,112.5667,022.3073,362.60

SALDO DESPUES IMPUESTOS777.00129,744.64142,595.97156,385.36171,179.39AMORTIZACION PRESTAMO1,739.761,983.332,260.992,577.532,938.39DEPRECIACION4,000.004,000.004,000.004,000.004,000.00SALDO FINAL3,037.24131,761.31144,334.97157,807.83322,241.01VENTA EMPRESA150,000.00INVERSION-25,000.003,037.24131,761.31144,334.97157,807.83322,241.01

VAN437,269.08TIR196%PROBABLEAO OAO 1AO 2AO 3AO 4AO 5INGRESOSMETROS512.002,245.402,365.532,492.082,625.41PRECIO UNITARIO128.00128.00128.00128.00128.00TOTAL INGRESOS65,536.00287,411.04302,787.53318,986.67336,052.45

EGRESOSCOSTE DIRECTO45,219.8479,910.5583,506.5287,264.3291,191.21COSTES FIJOS24,000.0024,000.0024,000.0024,000.0024,000.00DEPRECIACION4,000.004,000.004,000.004,000.004,000.00COSTO FINANCIERO1,610.001,366.431,088.77772.23411.37IMPUESTOS0.0053,440.2257,057.6760,885.0464,934.96SALDO DESPUES IMPUESTOS-5,293.84128,693.84137,134.57146,065.08155,514.91AMORTIZACION PRESTAMO1,739.761,983.332,260.992,577.532,938.39DEPRECIACION4,000.004,000.004,000.004,000.004,000.00SALDO FINAL(3,033.60)130,710.51138,873.58147,487.55236,576.52VENTA EMPRESA80,000.00INVERSION-25,000.00(3,033.60)130,710.51138,873.58147,487.55236,576.52

VAN376,847.05TIR183%PESIMISTAAO OAO 1AO 2AO 3AO 4AO 5INGRESOSMETROS240.002,131.932,179.902,228.942,279.09PRECIO UNITARIO128.00128.00128.00128.00128.00TOTAL INGRESOS30,720.00272,886.68279,026.63285,304.73291,724.09EGRESOSCOSTE DIRECTO23,654.4080,097.8785,304.2390,849.0196,754.19COSTES FIJOS24,000.0024,000.0024,000.0024,000.0024,000.00DEPRECIACION4,000.004,000.004,000.004,000.004,000.00COSTO FINANCIERO1,610.001,366.431,088.77772.23411.37IMPUESTOS0.0049,026.7149,390.0949,705.0549,967.56SALDO DESPUES IMPUESTOS-18,544.40118,395.66119,243.54119,978.45120,590.96AMORTIZACION PRESTAMO1,739.761,983.332,260.992,577.532,938.39DEPRECIACION4,000.004,000.004,000.004,000.004,000.00SALDO FINAL(16,284.16)120,412.34120,982.55121,400.91174,652.58VENTA EMPRESA53,000.00INVERSION-25,000.00(16,284.16)120,412.34120,982.55121,400.91174,652.58

VAN297,616.97TIR151%

VALOR ESPERADO0.12560.23620.6382OPTIMISTAPROBABLEPESIMISTAVALOR ESPERADOVAN 54,921.0089,011.27189,939.15333,871.42COMENTARIOS- El VAN esperado es 333,871.42, el mismo que incluye el comportamiento de los 3 escenarios- La TIR o rentabilidad estara entre 150 y 178% (con un coste de capital de 14%)- El proyecto se ha "castigado" con una probabilidad de escenario pesimista de 55% para 4 aos- Siendo un escenario preponderadamente pesimista, se recomienda un mayor anlisis de sensibilidad ante una TIR alta.- La demanda casi se ha quintuplicado en un ao, sera bueno analizar si la capacidad operativa podr sostenerla- En la proyeccin de ventas, se parte de una constante de 916 trajes y las variables dependientes aportan solo 20% de la demanda.- En los costos, se ha pasado de 60% de las ventas a un promedio de 25%. La variable independientes representan el 35% de los costos al quinto ao en escenario pesimista.- La variable TIE se espera que mantenga la tendencia positiva en PERU- Se debe ingresar a confeccionar ropa para ejecutivas, dado el crecimiento de la variable TEM- El valor de venta al ao 5 debera incluir factores preponderantenmente intangibles y de alianzas debido a que la maquinaria se deprecia, tecnolgicamente, al final del ao 3- El quintuplicar la demanda implicara outsourcing o contratar mano de obra

- En el ao 1, se ha combinado la probablildad que cada consorcio game el contrato con la que Jorge L Lastre gane el contrato.

- Se debera considerar el valor intangible de la creacin de moda.- Las variables del ao 1 son directas (clientes) y las del ao 2 al 5 son indirectas.- No se han considerado variables relacionadas con las estrategias de ventas o los competidores- En un anlisis de punto de equilibrio optimista, este se ha reducido en 45%

ProductividadA0 1A0 2TRAJESPRODUCTIVIDADPTO EQUILIBRIOTRAJESPRODUCTIVIDADPTO EQUILIBRIOESCENARIOOPTIMISTA20060.00%468.75958.5027.08%257.13MEDIO16069.00%604.84935.5827.80%259.71PESIMISTA12077.00%815.22888.3029.35%265.40

Analisis Monte Carlo0.71058005850.210.220.1650.187OPTIMISTA0.51405802350.220.187ExpertosProbabilidadFrec. RelativaFrec. Acumulado0.67200438590.210.1651028.00%17.54%17.54%0.04459047150.280.22925.50%15.79%33.33%0.37444312130.220.1871522.00%26.32%59.65%0.01482128380.280.221221.00%21.05%80.70%0.31612712190.2550.2717.00%12.28%92.98%0.02886345050.280.22314.50%5.26%98.25%0.90692556460.170.14112.50%1.75%100.00%0.48850971010.220.1870.49175515210.220.18757100.00%0.21721861690.2550.20.7382080890.210.165RangosValores0.50137986220.220.187[0.00 - 0.1754>28.00%0.85487473180.170.14[0.1754 - 0.3333>25.50%0.80179159810.210.165[0.3333 - 0.5965>22.00%0.91632028730.170.14[0.5965 - 0.8070>21.00%0.88944864830.170.14[0.8070 - 0.9278>17.00%0.75276720950.210.165[0.9278 - 0.9825>14.50%0.13688256760.280.22[0.9825 - 1.0000>12.50%0.94192743160.1450.1250.01419074580.280.22PROBABLE0.60186760490.210.165ExpertosProbabilidadFrec. RelativaFrec. Acumulado0.06360551280.280.221022.00%0.17543859650.17543859650.33300802750.2550.2920.00%0.15789473680.33333333330.077850360.280.221518.70%0.26315789470.59649122810.88009398490.170.141216.50%0.21052631580.80701754390.41710281720.220.187714.00%0.12280701750.92982456140.02286973870.280.22312.50%0.05263157890.98245614040.31517985310.2550.2110.00%0.017543859610.64313233570.210.1650.19333330850.2550.257100.00%0.6376985870.210.1650.04944637990.280.22RangosValores0.52951836080.220.187[0.00 - 0.1754>22.00%0.89779554210.170.14[0.1754 - 0.3333>20.00%0.52393013060.220.187[0.3333 - 0.5965>18.70%0.47104941490.220.187[0.5965 - 0.8070>16.50%0.0833391660.280.22[0.8070 - 0.9278>14.00%0.90985831160.170.14[0.9278 - 0.9825>12.50%0.70336832550.210.165[0.9825 - 1.0000>10.00%0.72902847280.210.1650.19553180370.2550.20.91090689450.170.140.82160673070.170.140.60957070550.210.1650.48476487520.220.1870.38450047650.220.1870.05979273460.280.220.99004028470.1250.10.21770118390.2550.20.73434554890.210.1650.52603091040.220.1870.99895660040.1250.10.61019072330.210.1650.10087976760.280.220.84172935130.170.140.78270836970.210.1650.98732984930.1250.10.64882343480.210.1650.87951054850.170.140.56995073040.220.1870.94669101650.1450.1250.28450460660.2550.20.82571856060.170.140.75222480250.210.1650.65297855270.210.1650.12258769410.280.220.51167279070.220.1870.41269451680.220.1870.8466419430.170.140.10311201620.280.220.64955196950.210.1650.76616362250.210.1650.05582348690.280.220.86875987160.170.140.61139426840.210.1650.74267663640.210.1650.14104141620.280.220.94720392380.1450.1250.40493718890.220.1870.64983418910.210.1650.68783004960.210.1650.00924738560.280.220.54821924090.220.1870.50753195950.220.1870.57012161640.220.1870.81051531080.170.140.33095906040.2550.20.52967078110.220.1870.14526292090.280.220.79493651640.210.1650.4678612690.220.1870.11685124930.280.220.4854097150.220.1870.96168621470.1450.1250.97713230460.1450.1250.26614325860.2550.20.54115868130.220.1870.72969648330.210.1650.50272256120.220.1870.63859295070.210.1650.00924437990.280.220.12539433330.280.220.30904585940.2550.20.01883606880.280.220.53678092050.220.1870.22309756820.2550.20.00577440080.280.220.794541010.210.1650.29865400880.2550.20.6516409270.210.1650.04772671740.280.220.40410297720.220.1870.86207974830.170.140.19604823790.2550.20.65661888030.210.1650.81075203660.170.140.52564471710.220.1870.82620488710.170.140.59495992080.220.1870.61784891760.210.1650.05396266310.280.220.87710544970.170.140.77446218650.210.1650.08253624370.280.220.21517189650.2550.20.55486681290.220.1870.30853760860.2550.20.78743853140.210.1650.50556034360.220.1870.08012521990.280.220.78217169150.210.1650.83427089940.170.140.95952853710.1450.1250.0595223410.280.220.5829558980.220.1870.09259827680.280.220.98663391390.1250.10.58185411710.220.1870.12562212850.280.220.34260876560.220.1870.70228606360.210.1650.10230880610.280.220.82236434550.170.140.91401405350.170.140.82064058510.170.140.56812912940.220.1870.84278842290.170.140.02780514760.280.220.77156425140.210.1650.95540011580.1450.1250.28208842610.2550.20.58376380060.220.1870.20326637930.2550.20.55614772120.220.1870.10077502940.280.220.81924057930.170.140.83351732190.170.140.7946485280.210.1650.40579898460.220.1870.95860204450.1450.1250.91937106360.170.140.98613816990.1250.10.02916924720.280.220.82375004760.170.140.51217621770.220.1870.54806683220.220.1870.72317983770.210.1650.91080362080.170.140.64755740340.210.1650.50955855840.220.1870.97504370680.1450.1250.77366189440.210.1650.12322471270.280.220.42862718980.220.1870.5964636110.220.1870.0162207530.280.220.03053133330.280.220.65585204790.210.1650.36472621680.220.1870.91979341880.170.140.31864220050.2550.20.2002332610.2550.20.10352363020.280.220.07368587230.280.220.39121315810.220.1870.19930571130.2550.20.43519320240.220.1870.57364659390.220.1870.0897119010.280.220.64823290440.210.1650.83854218150.170.140.07039601880.280.220.6894561080.210.1650.95941301140.1450.1250.25230371040.2550.20.1065911530.280.220.5219893720.220.1870.72429504010.210.1650.86194963280.170.140.06940010870.280.220.81143631950.170.140.21557012610.2550.20.13333417680.280.220.40239989530.220.1870.67505127060.210.1650.93305424760.1450.1250.49428203380.220.1870.22197510040.2550.20.15476390030.280.220.80631304030.210.1650.53081282560.220.1870.3532915260.220.1870.25423149360.2550.20.22203681950.2550.20.71127096880.210.1650.00340696710.280.220.27076370290.2550.20.27542333760.2550.20.32078899080.2550.20.17257044350.280.220.69889016920.210.1650.04240815440.280.220.01905760190.280.220.02273170780.280.220.65629762060.210.1650.82887004110.170.140.5445679530.220.1870.72771905250.210.1650.78488258550.210.1650.63571756950.210.1650.52876820310.220.1870.74588876750.210.1650.89303548850.170.140.61297871370.210.1650.74430898860.210.1650.59949159690.210.1650.55816280810.220.1870.62088485680.210.1650.97647624840.1450.1250.49939504630.220.1870.21433720290.2550.20.21499981330.2550.20.40165884020.220.1870.72212336040.210.1650.2970539770.2550.20.06235464760.280.220.54118048930.220.1870.8123329850.170.140.64194221040.210.1650.9159186220.170.140.14135287920.280.220.32192619370.2550.20.19342941170.2550.20.65390748950.210.1650.98027098030.1450.1250.31058424460.2550.20.74112887180.210.1650.43495232190.220.1870.95734139660.1450.1250.82004700850.170.140.82565722960.170.140.37518162810.220.1870.61629728650.210.1650.49626738430.220.1870.40108079630.220.1870.08084789490.280.220.03900394980.280.220.05271964030.280.220.42441555330.220.1870.05735782960.280.220.14922039130.280.220.54559423950.220.1870.20831935480.2550.20.3582471440.220.1870.77812374280.210.1650.021639320.280.220.38550347020.220.1870.12165260920.280.220.73366855610.210.1650.22745158850.2550.20.04759417470.280.220.65159254810.210.1650.44502475810.220.1870.75668394360.210.1650.47431165390.220.1870.69536814520.210.1650.73675793910.210.1650.60134976890.210.1650.96458732960.1450.1250.84221547110.170.140.19423892380.2550.20.27166284540.2550.20.40270305710.220.1870.2072356860.2550.20.10206699490.280.220.68476518810.210.1650.43153047430.220.1870.70106114450.210.165