Las series de fresa son caoticas
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Transcript of Las series de fresa son caoticas
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Las series de producción de fresón son caóticas
Juan Diego Borrero Sá[email protected]
Universidad de Huelva
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Mi serie
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Nuestras series
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
100 200 300 400
PRODTFREBO PRODTFRECH PRODTFRESAT
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0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2007M01 2007M02 2007M03 2007M04 2007M05
Mi serie en un año
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PROD1
TªMAX
302010
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
-1000
Observada
Logarítmico
Cuadrático
Cúbico
Ajustes producción vs Tª Máx
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Ajuste de la serie: Suavizado exponencial
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Ajuste de la serie anual: Suavizado exponencial
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Modelo lineal: ARIMA
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Modelo lineal: ARIMA
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Diferenciación de la serie
-200000
-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
DCH_PRODTFRE
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-100000
-50000
0
50000
100000
100 200 300 400
Recursive Residuals ± 2 S.E.
prodtfrebo c prodtfrebo(-1)
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¿Es caótica la serie? Sí
Tiene un exponente de Lyapunov positivo
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¿Es caótica la serie? Sí
Tiene un atractor
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Estimación no lineal (no paramétrica)
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Estimación no lineal (no paramétrica)
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Estimación no lineal (no paramétrica)
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Estimación no lineal (no paramétrica)