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2013, Latin American Public Opinion Projectwww.AmericasBarometer.org
AmericasBarometer:TopicalBriefOctober21,2013
nOctober13,2013,seventysevenchanges
to the Ecuadorian Penal Code were
approved by the unicameral National
Assembly, the countrys legislature, and now
waittobesignedbyPresidentRafaelCorrea(El
Comercio,2013).
Included
among
these
reforms
was a proposalby legislators of the
Presidents ruling party, Alianza Pasto
decriminalizeabortioninallcasesofrape.The
current law allows the procedure when the
victim ismentally incapacitated, orwhen the
mothers health is in danger due to the
pregnancy.Duringashort legislativestandoff
with President Correa, the entire judicial
reformpackagewasjeopardizedby thissingle
proposed modification to the countrys
abortionlaw,
with
President
Correa
taking
the
followingstanceagainstabortion:1
If these betrayals and disloyalty
continueIwillpresentmyresignation...
they can do whatever they want, I will
never approve the decriminalization of
abortion(ElComercio2013,ElUniverso,
2013).
1Fundingforthe2012roundmainlycamefromtheUnitedStates Agency for International Development (USAID).
ImportantsourcesofsupportwerealsotheInterAmerican
Development Bank (IADB), the United Nations
DevelopmentProgram(UNDP),andVanderbiltUniversity.
ThisTopicalBriefreport issolelyproducedbyLAPOPandtheopinionsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsanddonot
necessarily reflect the point of view of theUnited States
Agency for International Development, or any other
supportingagency.
In
the
face
of
Correas
immense
popularity,
legislators from his own party backed down
and removed the proposal from the reform
package. In this Topical Brief I exploreEcuadorians views on the issue of allowing
abortioncaseswherethehealthofthemotheris
threatenedinanefforttounderstandtheextent
to which President Correas position reflects
those of his supporters and the Ecuadorian
publicmoregenerally.
o
LegislatorsandthePresidentClashinEcuadoroverAbortionIssue:Whohasthesupportofthepeople? ByDianaOrcs,VanderbiltUniversity
Figure1.SupportforAbortionwhentheMothersHealthisinDangeracrosstheAmericas,2012
33.0%
39.1%
41.7%
44.9%
45.3%
46.2%
49.3%49.6%
49.7%
51.3%
51.9%
52.4%
53.4%
55.8%
58.9%
59.6%
61.0%
61.2%
61.5%
65.9%
66.0%
67.6%
68.9%80.2%
81.9%
Honduras
Panama
Guyana
Nicaragua
Guatemala
Belize
Paraguay
Ecuador
Trinidad & Tobago
Mexico
El Salvador
Venezuela
Chile
Costa Rica
Haiti
Bolivia
Suriname
Dom. Rep.
Colombia
Argentina
Peru
Brazil
Jamaica
United States
Uruguay
0 20 40 60 80 100
95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)
Support for an abortion when the mother's health is in danger
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2013, Latin American Public Opinion Projectwww.AmericasBarometer.org
Ianalyzeaquestionaskedinthe2012roundof
the AmericasBarometer survey, which
interviewedover42,000people in26countries
in the Americas, including a nationally
representative sample of 1,500 of voting age
Ecuadorians. Respondents were asked about
theirsupportforanabortionwiththefollowing
yes/noquestion:2
W14A.Doyouthinkitsjustifiedtointerrupta
pregnancy, that is, tohave an abortion,when
themothershealthisindanger?
Figure 1 shows the percentages of citizens in
the Americas who would allow an abortion
when the mothers health is in danger.
Ecuadoriansexpressamongthelowest levelof
supportfor
abortion
in
the
Americas
and
also
exhibit a highly polarized public opinion
landscape, with an even split of Ecuadorian
respondentssupportingandopposingabortion
incaseswherethemothershealthisindanger.
Only Panamanians (39%) and Hondurans
(33%) are significantly less supportive of an
abortion than Ecuadorians, with Paraguay,
Belize,Nicaragua,andGuyanaallfallinginthe
same statistical range asEcuador.Conversely,
morethan80%ofUruguayansandU.S.citizens
supportthe
right
to
an
abortion
when
the
mothershealthisindanger.3
What these initial results suggest is thatboth
Correa and legislative proponents of even
limited abortion rights have a strongbase of
popularsupportamongtheEcuadorianpublic,
but also face a significant percentage of the
population who oppose their respective
positions. In sum, the legislative push to
decriminalize abortion in certain situations
reveals
a
stark
and
divisive
split
running
throughEcuadoriansociety.
2PriorissuesintheInsightsseriescanbefoundat:
http://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/insights.php.
Thedataonwhichtheyarebasedcanbefoundat
http://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/surveydata.php.3Itemnonresponsewas7%;thosewhodidnotanswerare
notanalyzedinthisshortreport.
In order tobetter understand the contours of
this issueamongtheEcuadorianpublic, Inow
turn to an analysis of the characteristics of
thosewhosupportexpandedabortionrightsin
Ecuador.InanotherrecentLAPOPTopicalBrief,BoidiandCorrales(2013)findthatsupportfor
abortion rights across Latin American and
Caribbean publics is lower among thosewho
feel religion is important in their liveswhile
support is higher among women, wealthier
citizens,those
with
higher
levels
of
education,
and those living in urban areas. I take these
findingsasapointofdepartureforananalysis
ofthesocioeconomicandattitudinalprofilesof
abortionopponentsandsupportersinEcuador
inaneffort to identify thecompetingbasesof
popular support on which Correa and his
legislative opponents have staked their
positionsonthishotlycontestedissue.
Beginningwith abreakdown of supportersof
expanded
abortion
rights
by
sex,
Figure
2
reveals, perhaps surprisingly, no statistically
significant differences between Ecuadorian
males (53.5%)andEcuadorian females (46.2%)
in their support for an abortion when the
mothers health is in danger. For a more
complete assessment of supporters and
opponentsofthisprovision,though,Iturntoa
multivariate analysis inwhich various factors
Figure2.SupportforabortionwhenthemothershealthisindangerbysexinEcuador
53.5%
46.2%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Male Female
95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effect Based)
Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP
8/13/2019 Apoyo al aborto en pases de America y Ecuador
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2013, Latin American Public Opinion Projectwww.AmericasBarometer.org
related toEcuadorians views on abortion are
considered.
Figure3showsagraphicalrepresentationofa
logisticregressionmodel thatseeks to identify
the main socioeconomic and attitudinal
characteristics of abortion rights supporters.
Whenthedotfallstotherightofthegreenaxis
(0.0), that variable is positively related to
supportforabortion;whenitfallstotheleft,it
is negatively related to this support. The
horizontallinessurroundingeachdotrepresent
95%confidenceintervalfortheestimate.When
the confidence intervals do not overlap the
green axis,we canbe 95% confident that the
variable is statistically significant related to
support for abortion (for the sake of clarity,
thesevariablesarehighlightedinred).
TheresultsinFigure3indicatethatthereareno
statistically significant differences across
various sociodemographic indicators as sex,
religion, civil status, age, education, area of
residencyandethnicselfidentification.Norare
theredifferencesamong thosewhoapproveof
President Correas performance, those who
locate themselves to the right or left of the
ideological spectrum, those who trust the
Catholic Church, think that religion is
importantin
their
lives
or
attend
church
frequently. The only statistically significant
differences are wealth, which echoes results
found by Boidi and Corrales (2013) for the
general population in the Americas, and
marginallyforthoserespondentswithchildren.
Wealthy individuals and thosewith kids are
significantlymorelikelytosupporttherightfor
an abortion when the mothers health is in
dangercompared to thosewith lower incomes
andthosewithoutkids.
It remains tobeseenhow thedebateover the
decriminalization of abortion unfolds in
Ecuador. What the above analysis suggests,
given the relative absenceofmany significant
correlatesofEcuadoriansviewsoftheabortion
debate, is thatPresidentCorreamay riskvery
little in making his stance against abortion
becausetheissuedoesnotcutonewayor
another across subgroups in the population.
Further,heisnottakingapositionsignificantly
at oddswith his supportersbut neither is he
taking a position that is in line with his
supporters.At the time of thewriting of this
Topical Brief, various womens organizationshaveexpressedtheirviewsopposingPresident
Correasefforts tohalt the liberalizationof the
currentcriminalizationofabortionlaws,thisin
acountrywhereone inevery fourwomenhas
suffered some kind of sexual violence (El
Comercio,2013,
line
7).
It
remains
to
be
seen
whether Ecuadorwill remain a countrywith
oneofthemostrestrictiveabortionrightslaws
inLatinAmericaorwilleventually follow the
pathofcountrieslikeUruguay,wheretheright
to an abortion isprotectedby law andwhere
morethan80%ofthepopulationsupportssuch
rights.
Figure3.DeterminantsofEcuadorianssupportforabortionwhenthemothershealthisindanger
F=1.209N =559
Extreme left
Extreme right
Married
Trust in the Catholic Church
Importance of Religion
Frequency of Church Attendance
Female
Catholic
With children
Age
Education
Quintiles of Wealth
Size of Place of Residence
Mulatto
White
Black
Indigenous
Presidential Approval
-0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60
95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effect Based)
Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP
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2013, Latin American Public Opinion Projectwww.AmericasBarometer.org
ReferencesBoidi,Mara Fernanda andMargarita Corral.
2013. Public Opinion and Abortion
Rights in the Americas.AmericasBarometer: Topical Brief 8.Vanderbilt
University.
LAPOP.
Organizaciones femeninas rechazaron
penalizacin del aborto en Ecuador.
2013.ElComercio (14October).Retrievedfrom:
http://www.elcomercio.com/politica/Cod
igoPenal_AsambleaabortoEcuador
mujeres_0_1010899064.html.
Lastaccessed14October2013.
77 fueron loscambios finalesde laAsamblea
enel
Cdigo
Penal.
2013.
ElComercio(14
October). Retrieved from:
http://www.elcomercio.com/politica/cam
biosCodigoPenalAsamblealeymala
practicamedicatransitolicencia
conduccionconducircontrabando
violencia_0_1010899031.html.
Lastaccessed14October2013.
Presidente anuncia su renuncia si se
despenalizaelaborto.2013.ElComercio(11
October).
Retrieved
from:
http://www.elcomercio.com/politica/corr
earenunciarabortocodigopenal
ecuador_0_1009099174.html
Lastaccessed14October2013.
Mujeresoficialistasretrocedensobreelaborto,
luegodeadvertenciapresidencial.2013.
ElUniverso(11October).Retrievedfrom:http://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2013
/10/11/nota/1570371/mujeresoficialistas
retroceden
sobre
aborto
luego
advertencia.
Lastaccessed14October2013.
Advertencia de Correa baj el tono de
discusin por el aborto. 2013. ElUniverso (12 October). Retrieved from:
http://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2013
/10/12/nota/1571806/advertenciacorrea
bajotonodiscusionaborto.
Lastaccessed14October2013.
Dr. Diana Orcs (diana.m.orces@vanderbilt.edu) is
ResearcheratLAPOP.
Full results of the 2012AmericasBarometer survey
and the AmericasBarometer 2012 comparative study
canbe consulted online atwww.LapopSurveys.org.
The full data set is available for online analysis or
download(inSPSSandStataformats)atnocost.