Commuting in London:travel behaviour & CO2 emissions between the 2001 and 2011 censuses

Francesco D’AdamoMSc Climate ChangeDepartment of Geography, University College London

Introduction

Why emissions from transport?• Significantly contributes to GHG emissions [23% World CO2, 27% UK CO2]

• Cutting emissions from transport has been difficult

• Lack of studies describing commuting in terms of CO2

Anthropogenic GHG emissions have increased since the pre‐industrial era, driven largely by economic and population growth, and are now higher than ever […] their effects are extremely likely to have been the dominant cause

of the observed warming since the mid 20th century [IPCC 2014: 4]

• Unique megacity in Europe• Smith and Serras [2012] 2001 CO2 from commuting in GLA

Comparison between 2001 and 2011

Key Questions Did the travel mode-choice change? Did CO2 emissions from commuting change? Did behavior and emissions vary accordingly? Why these changes occurred?

London case study

Data• Population, employed, homeworker, unemployed• Method of travel-to-work mode-choice analysis

[car & van, bus & coach, rail, tube & light train, taxi, motorcycle, bike, walk]

• Travel flows (origin-destination) CO2 analysis

• Mode-choice analysis MSOA• CO2 analysis Local Authority

• Mode-choice csv. Choropleth maps

• Travel flow GIS Tables

- Centroid-centroid distances

- Geodatabase single trip distances and still all ‘o-d’ combinations

- Statistical analysis (ArcToolbox) grouped by origin and t.m.[e.g. total distance covered by car commuters from Brent]

- CO2 using DEFRA reports (gCO2/km)

Method

ResultsLondon CCS (2003)

& TfL improvements

• Car commuting decreased• Public transport usage grew• Weak transport infrastructures

at Bromley, Bexley & Havering• Different commuting

preferences in central London

Correlation

betweentravel

behaviorandCO2

emissionvariations

• Brentford bus station• Feltham gateway project• Commuting to Heathrow

HACKNEY in 2011• +8.5% cycle-to-work• -14.9% CO2 from car• New road system• Training & programs with

schools• More & safer bike parking

areas• Hackney cycle loan scheme

EAST LONDON REGENERATION• 2005 & 2009 DLR extensions• 2009 Stratford International• [1999 JLE extension]

• CCS & TfL• Different local

trends• Infrastructures

• CO2 from commuting in 2011 is not lower than 2001

• On average, emissions grew with the population growth

• Richmond and K. & C.More commuters and

more sustainable travels

Conclusions

Evidence of a behavior change from 2001 to 2011

CO2 emissions varied according to the new commuting

behavior

Transport policies are the main drivers of change

People are incline to alter their habits

Opportunities for future transport improvements

Overall figures show increasing CO2 due to population

growth