Mark Ogden - portal.adtran.comportal.adtran.com/pub/Library/Presentations/2014...1992 1997 2002 2007...

ADTRAN Company Confidential® Adtran, Inc. 2013 All rights reserved 1

Mark OgdenSales Director, ADTRAN


“Everything that can be invented has been invented.”

—1899 — Charles H. DuellCommissioner of U.S. Office of Patents


“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers…”

—1943 — Thomas WatsonChairman of IBM


“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home”

—1977 — Ken OlsonChairman of Digital Equipment Corp.


“Spam will be a thing of the past in two years time”

—2004 — Bill Gates, Chairman of Microsoft


Always appears incremental until its too late.

— Mike Walsh, Futurist


Why is change accelerating?


Moore’s LawNumber of transistors double approximately every 24 months

1971 1978 2003 2013

# of

Tra

nsis

tors

AMD Jaguar5B Transistors

Intel Pentium 455M

Transistors

Intel 808629K

Transistors

1st Microprocessor2,300

Transistors

Moore’s Actual


Gilder’s LawThe total bandwidth of communication systems triples every twelve months.

1997 2007 2017


0.000

0.001

0.010

0.100

1.000

10.000

100.000

1,000.000

10,000.000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Inte

rnet

Acc

ess

Rat

e (M

bps)

Year

Trend projection: 1 Gbps in 2020

Voiceband Modems Cable Modems, DSL and FTTx

Disruptive Event: 1 Gbps in 2013

Residential service rates ≈ 45% annual growth since 1980sDiscontinuity – Jump to 1 Gbps?

Not available everywhere

Broadband Access – Historical Trends


Metcalfe’s LawThe value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of nodes

2 Users1 Connection

5 Users10 Connections

Many UsersExponential Benefit

n(n-1)/2 = connections where n = # users


Convergence of the 3 Laws

Moore’s LawValue of Computing

Gilder’s LawValue of

Communications

Metcalfe’s LawValue of

Networking

Synergistic Reaction


1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

100 Gigabytes per Day

100 Gigabytes per Hour

100 Gigabytes

per Second

2,000 Gigabytes

per Second

16,800 Gigabytes

per Second

46,500 Gigabytes

per SecondGlobal Internet Traffic

*Cisco VNI forecast

SynergisticReaction

All movies

ever made

crossing the

global network

every 4 mins.


The real question…

So the analysts say I need to worry about more bandwidth…but who really cares about a gig?

If 1 gig was an option for the same price, would you take it?


New York TimesFebruary 19, 2014, 7:52 pm

Google Fiber, Ultrahigh-Speed Internet, May Expand to 34 New CitiesBy CLAIRE CAIN MILLER

On Wednesday, even though Google has notyet connected all the households that signedup in Kansas City and none in Austin, itannounced that it would consider installingFiber in the metropolitan areas of San Jose,Calif.; Salt Lake City; Phoenix; San Antonio;Nashville; Atlanta; Charlotte, N.C.; Raleigh-Durham, N.C.; and Portland, Ore.


C Spire Greenlights Three 'Fiberhoods' For 1-Gig Service

Mississippi’s Horn Lake, Quitman and Starkville Are First In Line For Coming Deployment By: Jeff Baumgartner Feb 19 2014 - 09:28am


And in April…

AT&T poised to take gigabit fiber broadband to North Carolina

The NCNGN is a regional initiative that spans six communities in the Triangle and Piedmont Triad regions of North Carolina. The group, which issued a request for proposal for interested broadband providers, includes members of the cities' chambers of commerce, representatives from several area universities and a nonprofit group called Gig.U. The cities involved in the project include Winston-Salem, Cary, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Durham, and Raleigh.

“This kind of private sector investment is essential to ensure our

regions remain competitive and at the forefront of next-generation

applications that are important to all sectors of the economy,"Tracy Futhey, chair of the NCNGN Steering Committee and

Duke University, vice president of Information Technology


Is 1G going to be enough?

“Everything that can be invented has been invented”

“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers…”

“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home”


Global GPON spend remains constant in CY14

*Infonetics 3Q13

10G Begins


Frontier Offers Wavelength Service in 25 States 02/18/2014

A new 10-gigabit wavelength service from Frontier Communications, introduced yesterday in Frontier local markets in 25 states, should trigger some new fiber deployments to business locations. The carrier is prepared to lay fiber to buildings for customers that order the Frontier Optical Transport Service and do not already have fiber connectivity, said Lisa Partridge, Frontier manager of product management, in an interview.“If we don’t lay the fiber someone else will,” said Partridge. “We believe it’s necessary because of how quickly bandwidth is doubling and tripling.”

The 25 markets where Frontier Optical Transport Service will be available are in Alabama, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin.


Can another law foretell new change?

Moore’s LawValue of Computing

Gilder’s LawValue of

Communications

Metcalfe’s LawValue of

Networking

Mark’s Law

Available Capital trumps all other Laws


Up to $100 million will be available - divided into three groups:

• $75 million to test construction of networks offering service plans providing 25 Mpbs downloads and 5 Mbps uploads – far in excess of the current Connect America Fund standard of 4/1 – for the same or lower amounts of support than will be offered to carriers in Phase II of Connect America

• $15 million to test interest in delivering service at 10/1 speeds in high cost areas

• $10 million for 10/1 service in areas that are extremely costly to serve

FCC RURAL BROADBAND EXPANSION EXPERIMENTSApplicants Will Compete to Deploy High-Performing Service at Lower Cost


1. Rate of change will accelerate

2. Demand for connectivity and capacity is “infinite”

3. Users demand everything “instantly”‒ Any Service, Anywhere, Any Device, Anytime

So… What Can We Conclude?


What does this mean to Carriers, OEMs, and the industry?


Breaking Down the Bottlenecks

Outside Plant

Access Systems (Backplanes & Processors)

Transport Systems and Facilities

The bottlenecks that emerge…


Breaking Down the Bottlenecks

More Fiber – New Photonics

Access System Capacity & Flexibility

Convergence of Access and Transport

Evolve … Change … Grow…


Must adapt the way we run our businesses

Enhance the network◦ Speed/Capacity – sure◦ New Operational Environments

Recognize new ways to generate revenue◦ New Serving Areas◦ New Solutions

Optimize our organizations to match the new business models◦ Software Defined Network / Cloud◦ New Back-office Systems

Mark Ogden - portal.adtran.comportal.adtran.com/pub/Library/Presentations/2014...1992 1997 2002 2007...

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