LOS LÍMITES DE LA SUSTITUCIÓN DE FUENTES ENERGÉTICAS PARA LA SOSTENIBILIDAD: LOS AGROCOMBUSTIBLES

Transcript of LOS LÍMITES DE LA SUSTITUCIÓN DE FUENTES ENERGÉTICAS PARA LA SOSTENIBILIDAD: LOS AGROCOMBUSTIBLES

LOS LMITES DE LA SUSTITUCIN DE FUENTES ENERGTICAS PARA LA SOSTENIBILIDAD:LOS AGROCOMBUSTIBLES

Alejandro Arizkun Cela
Los limites de la sustitucin de fuentes energticas y los agrocombustibles (A.Arizkun)

SUMARIOEnerga y sostenibilidad.

Las polticas al uso: eficiencia energtica y sustitucin de fuentes.

Los lmites de la sustitucin de fuentes para la sostenibilidad.

Los agrocombustibles: lmites, riesgos y potencialidades.

Conclusiones
Los limites de la sustitucin de fuentes energticas y los agrocombustibles (A.Arizkun)ENERGIA Y SOSTENIBILIDAD

La visin de la economa convencional del proceso productivo: circular y cerrado.

Factores de produccin

Produccin de bienes y servicios

Reproduccin de los factores de produccin
Los limites de la sustitucin de fuentes energticas y los agrocombustibles (A.Arizkun)ENERGIA Y SOSTENIBILIDADLa visin de la economa ecolgica del proceso productivo.

Un proceso abierto:

La entrada de materiales.

La entrada de energa.

La salida de residuos.
Los limites de la sustitucin de fuentes energticas y los agrocombustibles (A.Arizkun)ENERGIA Y SOSTENIBILIDADLa visin de la economa ecolgica del proceso productivo.

Un proceso expansivo:

El crecimiento econmico pieza bsica del funcionamiento econmico de las sociedades actuales.

Pero este crecimiento tiene lmites

La ocupacin de la biosfera por la actividad econmica y sus lmitesMateriales

Espacio

Sumideros

Fuentes de energa

El planeta Tierra en su conjunto:

Un sistema de interacciones

Cerrado en materiales

Abierto en energa

El funcionamiento de la energa (I):

1 ley termodinmica y principio de conservacin.

2 ley termodinmica y entropa.

El funcionamiento de la energa (II):

Fuentes energticas fsiles:

No renovables

Emisoras de GEI

Fuentes energticas solares:

Renovables

No emisoras de GEI

El funcionamiento de la energa (III):

La energa solar como fuente inagotable a escala humana.

Fuentes energticas renovables: ritmo de utilizacin.

Los artilugios de obtencin de energas renovables.

Otras fuentes: geotrmica y gravedad.
Los limites de la sustitucin de fuentes energticas y los agrocombustibles (A.Arizkun)LAS POLTICAS ENERGTICAS AL USO

La mejora en la eficiencia energtica.

La sustitucin de fuentes.

Su compatibilidad con el crecimiento econmico

La mejora en la eficiencia energtica.

Uso de Energas primarias/PNB

Mejoras tecnolgicas

Cambios en la composicin del PNB

La restriccin del crecimiento econmico.

La sustitucin de fuentes:

Renovables-No renovables

El cnit del petrleo

No fsiles-Fsiles.

Emisiones de GEI.

Su compatibilidad con el crecimiento econmico:El crecimiento exponencial (no hay una percepcin intuitiva)Una economa que crece al 3% anual:Se dobla en 20 aosSe multiplica por 10 en 67 aos

El ejemplo de los nenfares

Su compatibilidad con el crecimiento econmico (II):

El ejemplo de los nenfares:Un estanque con nenfaresCada da se dobla la cantidad de superficie ocupadaEl estanque se llena en 30 das

Nenfares(t)

0.000000186399.9999998137

0.000000372599.9999996275

0.000000745199.9999992549

0.000001490199.9999985099

0.000002980299.9999970198

0.000005960599.9999940395

0.000011920999.9999880791

0.000023841999.9999761581

0.000047683799.9999523163

0.000095367499.9999046326

0.000190734999.9998092651

0.000190734999.9998092651

0.000381469799.9996185303

0.000762939599.9992370605

0.001525878999.9984741211

0.003051757899.9969482422

0.006103515699.9938964844

0.012207031299.9877929688

0.024414062599.9755859375

0.04882812599.951171875

0.0976562599.90234375

0.195312599.8046875

0.39062599.609375

0.7812599.21875

1.562598.4375

3.12596.875

6.2593.75

12.587.5

2575

5050

1000

Nenfares(1)

0.000000186399.9999998137

Da 1

Nenfares 10

0.000095367499.9999046326

Da 10

Nenfares 20

0.0976562599.90234375

Da 20

Nenfares 25

3.12596.875

Da 25

Nenfares 26

6.2593.75

Da 26

Nenfares 27

12.587.5

Da 27

Nenfares 28

2575

Da 28

Nenfares 29

5050

Da 29

Nenfares 30

1000

Da 30

Datos

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7.532599.999999813799.999999627599.999999254999.999998509999.999997019899.999994039599.999988079199.999976158199.999952316399.999904632699.999809265199.999618530399.999237060599.998474121199.996948242299.993896484499.996948242299.975585937599.95117187599.9023437599.804687599.60937599.2187598.437596.87593.7587.575500

3.75412.5123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930

1.87556.25

0.937563.12510.0000001999.99999981

0.4687571.5625100.0001099.99990

0.23437580.78125200.1099.90

0.117187590.390625253.1396.88

0.05859375100.1953125266.2593.75

0.029296875110.097656252712.5087.50

0.0146484375120.0488281252825.0075.00

0.0073242188130.02441406252950.0050.00

0.0036621094140.012207031230100.000.00

0.0018310547150.0061035156

0.0009155273160.0030517578

0.0004577637170.0015258789

0.0002288818180.0007629395

0.0001144409190.0003814697

0.0000572205200.0001907349

0.0000286102210.0000953674

0.0000143051220.0000476837

0.0000071526230.0000238419

0.0000035763240.0000119209

0.0000017881250.0000059605

0.0000008941260.0000029802

0.000000447270.0000014901

0.0000002235280.0000007451

0.0000001118290.0000003725

0.0000000559300.0000001863

Nenfares(t)

0.000000186399.9999998137

0.000000372599.9999996275

0.000000745199.9999992549

0.000001490199.9999985099

0.000002980299.9999970198

0.000005960599.9999940395

0.000011920999.9999880791

0.000023841999.9999761581

0.000047683799.9999523163

0.000095367499.9999046326

0.000190734999.9998092651

0.000190734999.9998092651

0.000381469799.9996185303

0.000762939599.9992370605

0.001525878999.9984741211

0.003051757899.9969482422

0.006103515699.9938964844

0.012207031299.9877929688

0.024414062599.9755859375

0.04882812599.951171875

0.0976562599.90234375

0.195312599.8046875

0.39062599.609375

0.7812599.21875

1.562598.4375

3.12596.875

6.2593.75

12.587.5

2575

5050

1000

Nenfares(1)

0.000000186399.9999998137

Da 1

Nenfares 10

0.000095367499.9999046326

Da 10

Nenfares 20

0.0976562599.90234375

Da 20

Nenfares 25

3.12596.875

Da 25

Nenfares 26

6.2593.75

Da 26

Nenfares 27

12.587.5

Da 27

Nenfares 28

2575

Da 28

Nenfares 29

5050

Da 29

Nenfares 30

1000

Da 30

Datos

301100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100

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7.532599.999999813799.999999627599.999999254999.999998509999.999997019899.999994039599.999988079199.999976158199.999952316399.999904632699.999809265199.999618530399.999237060599.998474121199.996948242299.993896484499.996948242299.975585937599.95117187599.9023437599.804687599.60937599.2187598.437596.87593.7587.575500

3.75412.5123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930

1.87556.25

0.937563.12510.0000001999.99999981

0.4687571.5625100.0001099.99990

0.23437580.78125200.1099.90

0.117187590.390625253.1396.88

0.05859375100.1953125266.2593.75

0.029296875110.097656252712.5087.50

0.0146484375120.0488281252825.0075.00

0.0073242188130.02441406252950.0050.00

0.0036621094140.012207031230100.000.00

0.0018310547150.0061035156

0.0009155273160.0030517578

0.0004577637170.0015258789

0.0002288818180.0007629395

0.0001144409190.0003814697

0.0000572205200.0001907349

0.0000286102210.0000953674

0.0000143051220.0000476837

0.0000071526230.0000238419

0.0000035763240.0000119209

0.0000017881250.0000059605

0.0000008941260.0000029802

0.000000447270.0000014901

0.0000002235280.0000007451

0.0000001118290.0000003725

0.0000000559300.0000001863

Nenfares(t)

0.000000186399.9999998137

0.000000372599.9999996275

0.000000745199.9999992549

0.000001490199.9999985099

0.000002980299.9999970198

0.000005960599.9999940395

0.000011920999.9999880791

0.000023841999.9999761581

0.000047683799.9999523163

0.000095367499.9999046326

0.000190734999.9998092651

0.000190734999.9998092651

0.000381469799.9996185303

0.000762939599.9992370605

0.001525878999.9984741211

0.003051757899.9969482422

0.006103515699.9938964844

0.012207031299.9877929688

0.024414062599.9755859375

0.04882812599.951171875

0.0976562599.90234375

0.195312599.8046875

0.39062599.609375

0.7812599.21875

1.562598.4375

3.12596.875

6.2593.75

12.587.5

2575

5050

1000

Nenfares(1)

0.000000186399.9999998137

Da 1

Nenfares 10

0.000095367499.9999046326

Da 10

Nenfares 20

0.0976562599.90234375

Da 20

Nenfares 25

3.12596.875

Da 25

Nenfares 26

6.2593.75

Da 26

Nenfares 27

12.587.5

Da 27

Nenfares 28

2575

Da 28

Nenfares 29

5050

Da 29

Nenfares 30

1000

Da 30

Datos

301100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100

152500.00000018630.00000037250.00000074510.00000149010.00000298020.00000596050.00001192090.00002384190.00004768370.00009536740.00019073490.00038146970.00076293950.00152587890.00305175780.00610351560.00305175780.02441406250.0488281250.097656250.19531250.3906250.781251.56253.1256.2512.52550100

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1.87556.25

0.937563.12510.0000001999.99999981

0.4687571.5625100.0001099.99990

0.23437580.78125200.1099.90

0.117187590.390625253.1396.88

0.05859375100.1953125266.2593.75

0.029296875110.097656252712.5087.50

0.0146484375120.0488281252825.0075.00

0.0073242188130.02441406252950.0050.00

0.0036621094140.012207031230100.000.00

0.0018310547150.0061035156

0.0009155273160.0030517578

0.0004577637170.0015258789

0.0002288818180.0007629395

0.0001144409190.0003814697

0.0000572205200.0001907349

0.0000286102210.0000953674

0.0000143051220.0000476837

0.0000071526230.0000238419

0.0000035763240.0000119209

0.0000017881250.0000059605

0.0000008941260.0000029802

0.000000447270.0000014901

0.0000002235280.0000007451

0.0000001118290.0000003725

0.0000000559300.0000001863

Nenfares(t)

0.000000186399.9999998137

0.000000372599.9999996275

0.000000745199.9999992549

0.000001490199.9999985099

0.000002980299.9999970198

0.000005960599.9999940395

0.000011920999.9999880791

0.000023841999.9999761581

0.000047683799.9999523163

0.000095367499.9999046326

0.000190734999.9998092651

0.000190734999.9998092651

0.000381469799.9996185303

0.000762939599.9992370605

0.001525878999.9984741211

0.003051757899.9969482422

0.006103515699.9938964844

0.012207031299.9877929688

0.024414062599.9755859375

0.04882812599.951171875

0.0976562599.90234375

0.195312599.8046875

0.39062599.609375

0.7812599.21875

1.562598.4375

3.12596.875

6.2593.75

12.587.5

2575

5050

1000

Nenfares(1)

0.000000186399.9999998137

Da 1

Nenfares 10

0.000095367499.9999046326

Da 10

Nenfares 20

0.0976562599.90234375

Da 20

Nenfares 25

3.12596.875

Da 25

Nenfares 26

6.2593.75

Da 26

Nenfares 27

12.587.5

Da 27

Nenfares 28

2575

Da 28

Nenfares 29

5050

Da 29

Nenfares 30

1000

Da 30

Datos

301100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100

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1.87556.25

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0.4687571.5625100.0001099.99990

0.23437580.78125200.1099.90

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0.05859375100.1953125266.2593.75

0.029296875110.097656252712.5087.50

0.0146484375120.0488281252825.0075.00

0.0073242188130.02441406252950.0050.00

0.0036621094140.012207031230100.000.00

0.0018310547150.0061035156

0.0009155273160.0030517578

0.0004577637170.0015258789

0.0002288818180.0007629395

0.0001144409190.0003814697

0.0000572205200.0001907349

0.0000286102210.0000953674

0.0000143051220.0000476837

0.0000071526230.0000238419

0.0000035763240.0000119209

0.0000017881250.0000059605

0.0000008941260.0000029802

0.000000447270.0000014901

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0.0000001118290.0000003725

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Nenfares(t)

0.000000186399.9999998137

0.000000372599.9999996275

0.000000745199.9999992549

0.000001490199.9999985099

0.000002980299.9999970198

0.000005960599.9999940395

0.000011920999.9999880791

0.000023841999.9999761581

0.000047683799.9999523163

0.000095367499.9999046326

0.000190734999.9998092651

0.000190734999.9998092651

0.000381469799.9996185303

0.000762939599.9992370605

0.001525878999.9984741211

0.003051757899.9969482422

0.006103515699.9938964844

0.012207031299.9877929688

0.024414062599.9755859375

0.04882812599.951171875

0.0976562599.90234375

0.195312599.8046875

0.39062599.609375

0.7812599.21875

1.562598.4375

3.12596.875

6.2593.75

12.587.5

2575

5050

1000

Nenfares(1)

0.000000186399.9999998137

Da 1

Nenfares 10

0.000095367499.9999046326

Da 10

Nenfares 20

0.0976562599.90234375

Da 20

Nenfares 25

3.12596.875

Da 25

Nenfares 26

6.2593.75

Da 26

Nenfares 27

12.587.5

Da 27

Nenfares 28

2575

Da 28

Nenfares 29

5050

Da 29

Nenfares 30

1000

Da 30

Datos

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1.87556.25

0.937563.12510.0000001999.99999981

0.4687571.5625100.0001099.99990

0.23437580.78125200.1099.90

0.117187590.390625253.1396.88

0.05859375100.1953125266.2593.75

0.029296875110.097656252712.5087.50

0.0146484375120.0488281252825.0075.00

0.0073242188130.02441406252950.0050.00

0.0036621094140.012207031230100.000.00

0.0018310547150.0061035156

0.0009155273160.0030517578

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0.0002288818180.0007629395

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0.0000286102210.0000953674

0.0000143051220.0000476837

0.0000071526230.0000238419

0.0000035763240.0000119209

0.0000017881250.0000059605

0.0000008941260.0000029802

0.000000447270.0000014901

0.0000002235280.0000007451

0.0000001118290.0000003725

0.0000000559300.0000001863

Nenfares(t)

0.000000186399.9999998137

0.000000372599.9999996275

0.000000745199.9999992549

0.000001490199.9999985099

0.000002980299.9999970198

0.000005960599.9999940395

0.000011920999.9999880791

0.000023841999.9999761581

0.000047683799.9999523163

0.000095367499.9999046326

0.000190734999.9998092651

0.000190734999.9998092651

0.000381469799.9996185303

0.000762939599.9992370605

0.001525878999.9984741211

0.003051757899.9969482422

0.006103515699.9938964844

0.012207031299.9877929688

0.024414062599.9755859375

0.04882812599.951171875

0.0976562599.90234375

0.195312599.8046875

0.39062599.609375

0.7812599.21875

1.562598.4375

3.12596.875

6.2593.75

12.587.5

2575

5050

1000

Nenfares(1)

0.000000186399.9999998137

Da 1

Nenfares 10

0.000095367499.9999046326

Da 10

Nenfares 20

0.0976562599.90234375

Da 20

Nenfares 25

3.12596.875

Da 25

Nenfares 26

6.2593.75

Da 26

Nenfares 27

12.587.5

Da 27

Nenfares 28

2575

Da 28

Nenfares 29

5050

Da 29

Nenfares 30

1000

Da 30

Datos

301100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100

152500.00000018630.00000037250.00000074510.00000149010.00000298020.00000596050.00001192090.00002384190.00004768370.00009536740.00019073490.00038146970.00076293950.00152587890.00305175780.00610351560.00305175780.02441406250.0488281250.097656250.19531250.3906250.781251.56253.1256.2512.52550100

7.532599.999999813799.999999627599.999999254999.999998509999.999997019899.999994039599.999988079199.999976158199.999952316399.999904632699.999809265199.999618530399.999237060599.998474121199.996948242299.993896484499.996948242299.975585937599.95117187599.9023437599.804687599.60937599.2187598.437596.87593.7587.575500

3.75412.5123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930

1.87556.25

0.937563.12510.0000001999.99999981

0.4687571.5625100.0001099.99990

0.23437580.78125200.1099.90

0.117187590.390625253.1396.88

0.05859375100.1953125266.2593.75

0.029296875110.097656252712.5087.50

0.0146484375120.0488281252825.0075.00

0.0073242188130.02441406252950.0050.00

0.0036621094140.012207031230100.000.00

0.0018310547150.0061035156

0.0009155273160.0030517578

0.0004577637170.0015258789

0.0002288818180.0007629395

0.0001144409190.0003814697

0.0000572205200.0001907349

0.0000286102210.0000953674

0.0000143051220.0000476837

0.0000071526230.0000238419

0.0000035763240.0000119209

0.0000017881250.0000059605

0.0000008941260.0000029802

0.000000447270.0000014901

0.0000002235280.0000007451

0.0000001118290.0000003725

0.0000000559300.0000001863

Nenfares(t)

0.000000186399.9999998137

0.000000372599.9999996275

0.000000745199.9999992549

0.000001490199.9999985099

0.000002980299.9999970198

0.000005960599.9999940395

0.000011920999.9999880791

0.000023841999.9999761581

0.000047683799.9999523163

0.000095367499.9999046326

0.000190734999.9998092651

0.000190734999.9998092651

0.000381469799.9996185303

0.000762939599.9992370605

0.001525878999.9984741211

0.003051757899.9969482422

0.006103515699.9938964844

0.012207031299.9877929688

0.024414062599.9755859375

0.04882812599.951171875

0.0976562599.90234375

0.195312599.8046875

0.39062599.609375

0.7812599.21875

1.562598.4375

3.12596.875

6.2593.75

12.587.5

2575

5050

1000

Nenfares(1)

0.000000186399.9999998137

Da 1

Nenfares 10

0.000095367499.9999046326

Da 10

Nenfares 20

0.0976562599.90234375

Da 20

Nenfares 25

3.12596.875

Da 25

Nenfares 26

6.2593.75

Da 26

Nenfares 27

12.587.5

Da 27

Nenfares 28

2575

Da 28

Nenfares 29

5050

Da 29

Nenfares 30

1000

Da 30

Datos

301100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100

152500.00000018630.00000037250.00000074510.00000149010.00000298020.00000596050.00001192090.00002384190.00004768370.00009536740.00019073490.00038146970.00076293950.00152587890.00305175780.00610351560.00305175780.02441406250.0488281250.097656250.19531250.3906250.781251.56253.1256.2512.52550100

7.532599.999999813799.999999627599.999999254999.999998509999.999997019899.999994039599.999988079199.999976158199.999952316399.999904632699.999809265199.999618530399.999237060599.998474121199.996948242299.993896484499.996948242299.975585937599.95117187599.9023437599.804687599.60937599.2187598.437596.87593.7587.575500

3.75412.5123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930

1.87556.25

0.937563.12510.0000001999.99999981

0.4687571.5625100.0001099.99990

0.23437580.78125200.1099.90

0.117187590.390625253.1396.88

0.05859375100.1953125266.2593.75

0.029296875110.097656252712.5087.50

0.0146484375120.0488281252825.0075.00

0.0073242188130.02441406252950.0050.00

0.0036621094140.012207031230100.000.00

0.0018310547150.0061035156

0.0009155273160.0030517578

0.0004577637170.0015258789

0.0002288818180.0007629395

0.0001144409190.0003814697

0.0000572205200.0001907349

0.0000286102210.0000953674

0.0000143051220.0000476837

0.0000071526230.0000238419

0.0000035763240.0000119209

0.0000017881250.0000059605

0.0000008941260.0000029802

0.000000447270.0000014901

0.0000002235280.0000007451

0.0000001118290.0000003725

0.0000000559300.0000001863

Nenfares(t)

0.000000186399.9999998137

0.000000372599.9999996275

0.000000745199.9999992549

0.000001490199.9999985099

0.000002980299.9999970198

0.000005960599.9999940395

0.000011920999.9999880791

0.000023841999.9999761581

0.000047683799.9999523163

0.000095367499.9999046326

0.000190734999.9998092651

0.000190734999.9998092651

0.000381469799.9996185303

0.000762939599.9992370605

0.001525878999.9984741211

0.003051757899.9969482422

0.006103515699.9938964844

0.012207031299.9877929688

0.024414062599.9755859375

0.04882812599.951171875

0.0976562599.90234375

0.195312599.8046875

0.39062599.609375

0.7812599.21875

1.562598.4375

3.12596.875

6.2593.75

12.587.5

2575

5050

1000

Nenfares(1)

0.000000186399.9999998137

Da 1

Nenfares 10

0.000095367499.9999046326

Da 10

Nenfares 20

0.0976562599.90234375

Da 20

Nenfares 25

3.12596.875

Da 25

Nenfares 26

6.2593.75

Da 26

Nenfares 27

12.587.5

Da 27

Nenfares 28

2575

Da 28

Nenfares 29

5050

Da 29

Nenfares 30

1000

Da 30

Datos

301100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100

152500.00000018630.00000037250.00000074510.00000149010.00000298020.00000596050.00001192090.00002384190.00004768370.00009536740.00019073490.00038146970.00076293950.00152587890.00305175780.00610351560.00305175780.02441406250.0488281250.097656250.19531250.3906250.781251.56253.1256.2512.52550100

7.532599.999999813799.999999627599.999999254999.999998509999.999997019899.999994039599.999988079199.999976158199.999952316399.999904632699.999809265199.999618530399.999237060599.998474121199.996948242299.993896484499.996948242299.975585937599.95117187599.9023437599.804687599.60937599.2187598.437596.87593.7587.575500

3.75412.5123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930

1.87556.25

0.937563.12510.0000001999.99999981

0.4687571.5625100.0001099.99990

0.23437580.78125200.1099.90

0.117187590.390625253.1396.88

0.05859375100.1953125266.2593.75

0.029296875110.097656252712.5087.50

0.0146484375120.0488281252825.0075.00

0.0073242188130.02441406252950.0050.00

0.0036621094140.012207031230100.000.00

0.0018310547150.0061035156

0.0009155273160.0030517578

0.0004577637170.0015258789

0.0002288818180.0007629395

0.0001144409190.0003814697

0.0000572205200.0001907349

0.0000286102210.0000953674

0.0000143051220.0000476837

0.0000071526230.0000238419

0.0000035763240.0000119209

0.0000017881250.0000059605

0.0000008941260.0000029802

0.000000447270.0000014901

0.0000002235280.0000007451

0.0000001118290.0000003725

0.0000000559300.0000001863

Nenfares(t)

0.000000186399.9999998137

0.000000372599.9999996275

0.000000745199.9999992549

0.000001490199.9999985099

0.000002980299.9999970198

0.000005960599.9999940395

0.000011920999.9999880791

0.000023841999.9999761581

0.000047683799.9999523163

0.000095367499.9999046326

0.000190734999.9998092651

0.000190734999.9998092651

0.000381469799.9996185303

0.000762939599.9992370605

0.001525878999.9984741211

0.003051757899.9969482422

0.006103515699.9938964844

0.012207031299.9877929688

0.024414062599.9755859375

0.04882812599.951171875

0.0976562599.90234375

0.195312599.8046875

0.39062599.609375

0.7812599.21875

1.562598.4375

3.12596.875

6.2593.75

12.587.5

2575

5050

1000

Nenfares(1)

0.000000186399.9999998137

Da 1

Nenfares 10

0.000095367499.9999046326

Da 10

Nenfares 20

0.0976562599.90234375

Da 20

Nenfares 25

3.12596.875

Da 25

Nenfares 26

6.2593.75

Da 26

Nenfares 27

12.587.5

Da 27

Nenfares 28

2575

Da 28

Nenfares 29

5050

Da 29

Nenfares 30

1000

Da 30

Datos

301100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100

152500.00000018630.00000037250.00000074510.00000149010.00000298020.00000596050.00001192090.00002384190.00004768370.00009536740.00019073490.00038146970.00076293950.00152587890.00305175780.00610351560.00305175780.02441406250.0488281250.097656250.19531250.3906250.781251.56253.1256.2512.52550100

7.532599.999999813799.999999627599.999999254999.999998509999.999997019899.999994039599.999988079199.999976158199.999952316399.999904632699.999809265199.999618530399.999237060599.998474121199.996948242299.993896484499.996948242299.975585937599.95117187599.9023437599.804687599.60937599.2187598.437596.87593.7587.575500

3.75412.5123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930

1.87556.25

0.937563.12510.0000001999.99999981

0.4687571.5625100.0001099.99990

0.23437580.78125200.1099.90

0.117187590.390625253.1396.88

0.05859375100.1953125266.2593.75

0.029296875110.097656252712.5087.50

0.0146484375120.0488281252825.0075.00

0.0073242188130.02441406252950.0050.00

0.0036621094140.012207031230100.000.00

0.0018310547150.0061035156

0.0009155273160.0030517578

0.0004577637170.0015258789

0.0002288818180.0007629395

0.0001144409190.0003814697

0.0000572205200.0001907349

0.0000286102210.0000953674

0.0000143051220.0000476837

0.0000071526230.0000238419

0.0000035763240.0000119209

0.0000017881250.0000059605

0.0000008941260.0000029802

0.000000447270.0000014901

0.0000002235280.0000007451

0.0000001118290.0000003725

0.0000000559300.0000001863
Los limites de la sustitucin de fuentes energticas y los agrocombustibles (A.Arizkun)LOS LMITES PARA LA SOSTENIBILIDAD DE LA SUSTITUCIN DE FUENTES

Las Tasas de Retorno Energtico y Anlisis de Ciclo de Vida

El uso de materiales

La emisin de residuos

La ocupacin de territorio

Las Tasas de Retorno Energtico y Anlisis de Ciclo de Vida

Energas primarias y energas finales

Energas usadas en obtener energa

El anlisis de ciclo de vida (ACV)

Las tasas de retorno energtico (TRE o EROI)

Proporcion4(g)

1.017

1.034289

1.031186133

1.0074688519

0.9641476913

0.9034063868

0.8374577205

0.7679487297

0.6965294979

0.6387175495

0.5920911684

0.5536052425

0.5242641646

0.5017208055

0.4841605773

0.46963576

0.4602430448

0.4556406144

0.4556406144

0.4601970205

0.4694009609

0.4834829898

0.4979874795

0.5129271038

0.528314917

0.5441643645

0.5604892954

0.5773039743

0.5946230935

0.6124617863

0.6308356399

0.6497607091

0.6692535303

0.6893311363

0.7100110703

0.7313114025

0.7532507445

0.7758482669

0.7991237149

0.8230974263

0.8477903491

0.8732240596

0.8994207814

0.9264034048

0.9541955069

0.9828213722

1.0123060133

1.0426751937

1.0739554495

1.106174113

1.1393593364

1.1735401165

1.20874632

1.2450087096

1.2823589709

1.32082974

1.3604546322

1.4012682712

1.4433063193

1.4866055089

1.5312036742

1.5771397844

1.6244539779

1.6731875973

1.7233832252

PROPORCION DEL CONSUMO DE ENERGA RESPECTO AL MOMENTO ACTUALFACTOR 4- CRECIMIENTO 3%

Logros4(g)

1.3

3.3

5.3

7.3

9.3

10.3

11.3

12.3

11.3

10.3

9.5

8.3

7.3

6.5

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

0

0

0

LOGROS ANUALES DE MEJORA EN EFICIENCIA ENERGTICA (%)factor 4

Proporcion(4)

20071001.331.71021.0298.70

20081003.33-0.31031.0395.44

20091005.33-2.31031.0390.38

20101007.33-4.31011.0183.79

20111009.33-6.3960.9675.99

201210010.33-7.3900.9068.17

201310011.33-8.3840.8460.46

201410012.33-9.3770.7753.03

201510011.33-8.3700.7047.03

201610010.33-7.3640.6442.19

20171009.53-6.5590.5938.18

20181008.33-5.3550.5535.01

20191007.33-4.3520.5232.46

20201006.53-3.5500.5030.35

202110063-3480.4828.53

202210053-2470.4727.10

202310043-1460.4626.02

2024100330460.4625.24

2025100231460.4624.73

2026100132460.4624.48

2027100033470.4724.48

2028100033480.4824.48

2029100033500.5024.48

2030100033510.5124.48

2031100033530.5324.48

2032100033540.5424.48

2033100033560.5624.48

2034100033580.5824.48

2035100033590.5924.48

2036100033610.6124.48

2037100033630.6324.48

2038100033650.65

2039100033670.67

2040100033690.69

2041100033710.71

2042100033730.73

2043100033750.75

2044100033780.78

2045100033800.80

2046100033820.82

2047100033850.85

2048100033870.87

2049100033900.90

2050100033930.93

2051100033950.95

2052100033980.98

20531000331011.01

20541000331041.04

20551000331071.07

20561000331111.11

20571000331141.14

20581000331171.17

20591000331211.21

20601000331251.25

20611000331281.28

20621000331321.32

20631000331361.36

20641000331401.40

20651000331441.44

20661000331491.49

20671000331531.53

20681000331581.58

20691000331621.62

20701000331671.67

20711000331721.72

20721000331781.78

20731000331831.83

20741000331881.88

20751000331941.94

20761000332002.00

20771000332062.06

20781000332122.12

CO2(g)

0

7.9242079398

8.3247282221

3.3799000318

11.1158451439

15.1319194329

15.5983017996

22.9427334102

28.1759544989

39.2043353576

47.2296233019

42.8925768998

41.4430833025

57.8123444263

58.6422348356

63.7536532875

68.1862208216

73.0496361577

78.0565970623

83.5980892959

89.7014146627

Emisiones GEI

Emisiones Gases Efecto Invernadero TCO2 eqivalentes %/1990

COS(I)(g)

2842303

3067533

3078917

2938370

3158249

3272398

3285654

3494405

3643149

3956609

4184712

4061440

4020241

4485505

4509093

4663497

CO2(I)

EMISIONES DE GEI t CO2 eq

CO2(II)(g)

4654375

4780362

4918595

5060908

5218414

5391889

CO2(II)

EMISIONES ESTIMADAS DE GEI t CO2 eq

CO2rel(G)

2.4086387822

1.8927518399

2.6375273855

2.6431448716

2.5346985387

2.5415401752

2.3092043595

2.3786099038

2.2824406126

2.3815359889

2.4667680574

2.2813740274

2.0994480959

2.1077380326

1.6906501112

1.7639008008

CO2/EP

EMISIONES DE GEI POR UNIDAD DE ENERGA tCO2eq/tep

CO2

Emisiones GEI

Escenario base

ObtenidaTransformacinConsumo EETotal/1990EPCO2tot/EPCO2ob/EP

19902,481,500360,8032,842,3030.001,180,0452.412.41

19912,703,100364,4333,067,5337.921,620,6741.891.89

19922,678,300400,6173,078,9178.321,167,3502.642.64

19932,559,900378,4702,938,3703.381,111,6952.642.64

19942,819,80040,237378,6863,158,24911.121,246,0062.532.57

19952,884,70051,455439,1533,272,39815.131,287,5652.542.58

19962,978,40070,272377,5263,285,65415.601,422,8512.312.36

19973,133,90093,351453,8563,494,40522.941,469,0952.382.44

19983,278,400101,024465,7733,643,14928.181,596,1642.282.35

19993,506,400111,073561,2823,956,60939.201,661,3692.382.45

20003,720,100129,559594,1714,184,71247.231,696,4352.472.54

20013,673,000149,840538,2804,061,44042.891,780,2602.282.37

20023,666,681295,854649,4144,020,24141.441,914,9042.102.25

20034,922,7461,051,117613,8764,485,50557.812,128,1132.112.60

20045,466,8351,653,173695,4314,509,09358.642,667,0761.692.31

20055,612,7131,653,173703,9574,663,49764.072,643,8541.762.39

20065,786,0351,648,395713,7564,851,39670.69

20075,983,7331,652,541724,9135,056,10577.89

20086,939,4532,398,282731,4065,272,57785.50

20097,172,3562,403,703739,8405,508,49393.80

20108,156,6293,141,795750,2705,765,104102.83

Escenario eficiencia

ObtenidaTransformacinConsumo EETotal/1990

19902,481,500360,8032,842,3030.002.24

19912,703,100364,4333,067,5337.922.42

19922,678,300400,6173,078,9178.322.43

19932,559,900378,4702,938,3703.382.32

19942,819,80040,237378,6863,158,24911.122.49

19952,884,70051,455439,1533,272,39815.132.58

19962,978,40070,272377,5263,285,65415.602.59

19973,133,90093,351453,8563,494,40522.942.76

19983,278,400101,024465,7733,643,14928.182.88

19993,506,400111,073561,2823,956,60939.203.12

20003,720,100129,559594,1714,184,71247.233.30

20013,673,000149,840538,2804,061,44042.893.21

20023,666,681295,854649,4144,020,24141.443.17

20034,922,7461,051,117613,8764,485,50557.813.54

20045,466,8351,653,173695,4314,509,09358.643.56

20055,603,5911,653,173703,9574,654,37563.753.67

20065,715,0011,648,395713,7564,780,36268.193.77

20075,846,2231,652,541724,9134,918,59573.053.88

20086,727,7842,398,282731,4065,060,90878.063.99

20096,882,2772,403,703739,8405,218,41483.604.12

20107,783,4143,141,795750,2705,391,88989.704.26

TRE(g)

100

23

80

30

1.3

1.9

9

11.2

4

5.8

4

TASAS DE RETORNO ENERGTICO POR FUENTES

TRE

TASA DE RETORNO ENERGTICO

TRE

Petrleo 1940100.0

Petrleo 197023.0

Carbn 194080.0

Carbn 197030.0

Etanol1.3

Solar trmica1.9

Elect. Carbn9.0

Hidroelect.11.2

Nuclear4.0

Solar fotovolt.5.8

Geotrmica4.0

Cleveland, Constanza, Hall y Kaufman: www.eroei.com

Utilizacin de materiales

La sustitucin de la energa elctrica hoy usada por elica exige:3,4 veces ms del cemento que hoy se utiliza90% del acero que hoy se produce113 veces la produccin de fibra de vidrio

Si queremos sustituir tambin los combustibles por hidrgeno obtenido con energa elica: 21 veces ms del cemento que hoy se utiliza21 veces ms del acero que hoy se produce2.200 veces la produccin de fibra de vidrio

La emisin de residuos

Las energas primarias utilizadas

Las tecnologas empleadas

La distancia en donde se obtienen

La ocupacin de territorio

La sustitucin de combustibles slidos usados hoy por agrocombustibles exige 400 veces el carbono de la biota actual

En la UE para utilizar un 10% de agrocombustibles hay que dedicar el 72% de la superficie agraria

La ocupacin de territorio (II)

Incluso si los biocombustibles se usaran slo para el transporte, para hacer funcionar nuestros coches, camiones, trenes, barcos y aviones, sera necesario quemar cada ao entre dos y tres gigatoneladas de carbono como biofuel (una gigatonelada son mil millones de toneladas). Compare esa cantidad con nuestro consumo anual de comida, que es de media gigatonelada. Para cultivar esa comida ya usamos ms superficie terrestre de la que sera recomendable, pero necesitaramos la superficie de varios planetas como la Tierra slo para cultivar biocombustible.

(Lovelock(2006); pg. 106)
Los limites de la sustitucin de fuentes energticas y los agrocombustibles (A.Arizkun)LOS AGROCOMBUSTIBLES: LMITES, RIESGOS Y POTENCIALIDADES
Los limites de la sustitucin de fuentes energticas y los agrocombustibles (A.Arizkun)LOS AGROCOMBUSTIBLES: LMITES, RIESGOS Y POTENCIALIDADESEl proceso de produccin de los agrocombustibles

Lmites energticos:Balance energtico (TRE y ACV)Sistemas de cultivoProcesos de transformacinTransporte a larga distancia

Lmites asociados a los riesgos
Los limites de la sustitucin de fuentes energticas y los agrocombustibles (A.Arizkun)LOS AGROCOMBUSTIBLES: LMITES, RIESGOS Y POTENCIALIDADESLas TRE de los agrocombustibles
Los limites de la sustitucin de fuentes energticas y los agrocombustibles (A.Arizkun)LOS AGROCOMBUSTIBLES: LMITES, RIESGOS Y POTENCIALIDADESRiesgos (I):Energticos: Sumar en lugar de sustituir.Deforestacin:Sumidero de CO2Reguladores climticosConsumo de agua.Fertilizantes artificialesEutrofizacinSalinizacinErosin
Los limites de la sustitucin de fuentes energticas y los agrocombustibles (A.Arizkun)LOS AGROCOMBUSTIBLES: LMITES, RIESGOS Y POTENCIALIDADESRiesgos (II):InsecticidasTransgnicos.Sociales:Seguridad alimentariaDesplazamiento y ruptura de las comunidades campesinasCondiciones laborales de las grandes explotaciones.
Los limites de la sustitucin de fuentes energticas y los agrocombustibles (A.Arizkun)LOS AGROCOMBUSTIBLES: LMITES, RIESGOS Y POTENCIALIDADESPotencialidades:

Sustitucin limitada de combustibles fsiles:Materias primas.Produccin local.Biocombustibles de segunda generacin.
Los limites de la sustitucin de fuentes energticas y los agrocombustibles (A.Arizkun)CONCLUSIONES

Necesidad de un anlisis holstico:

Insertar el anlisis de los agrocombustibles en una visin global de la energa y de la sostenibilidad.

Insertar el anlisis de los agrocombustibles en una visin global de la sociedad.

Reflexin sobre los lmites en su uso:

Lmites energticos.

Lmites en los equilibrios ecolgicos.

Lmites sociales.

Condiciones para la sostenibilidad:

Materias primas residuales.

Respeto a la seguridad alimentaria.

Innovacin para mejorar su eficiencia energtica.

Qu sociedad queremos?

Limitar la dinmica expansivaUna sociedad autocontenidaLimitar las desigualdadesUna sociedad ms equilibrada

LOS LÍMITES DE LA SUSTITUCIÓN DE FUENTES ENERGÉTICAS PARA LA SOSTENIBILIDAD: LOS AGROCOMBUSTIBLES

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