LA COSTA CATALANA SOTA EL CANVI CLIMÀTIC IMPACTES I ADAPTACIÓ

(3er informe)

A. SANCHEZ-ARCILLA, J. P. SIERRA , V. GRACIA, M. GARCIA LEON & C. MOSSO

Total length ~700 km Sandy beaches ~250 km Urban beaches ~150 km Open beaches ~75 km Armoured coast ~40 km Cliffs ~208 km

CATALAN COAST DIMENSIONS:

STORM IMPACTS

331 SANDY BEACHES

Total Invest

Inve

st (

M€)

INVESTMENT

A

(IPCC, 2013)

Likely range, 66%

Upper limit (95%, RCP8.5), 1.8m

AR-4

AR-5

o Increase from AR4 to AR5 o Probabilistic characterization

Jevrejeva et al, 2014

“Coastal” climate change o Global to regional sea level o Average long term projections

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Temp

eratu

re ºC

Estartit Yearly Averaged Mean, Min and Max Temp.Yearly Averaged Mean TemperatureYearly Averaged Max TemperatureYearly Averaged Min Temperature

Lionello et al S.-Arcilla et al (data from J. Pascual)

“Coastal” climate change o Regional MSL and T ºC (average) projections o River liquid & solid discharges

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

To

tal d

am

s c

ap

acit

y (

Hm

³)

0

100

200

300

400

500

Mean

peri

od

dis

ch

arg

e (

m³/

s)

125 150 175 200 225 250d50 ( mm)

360

380

400

420

440

460

Qcr (

m3 /

s)

sección Tramuntano

sección Garxal

Sand transport threshold

Dam capacity

River discharge

MEDCORDEX GRID (.44degs) • ERA-INTERIM

1979-2011

• Past climate simulation

1951-2005 • RCP4.5 2006-2100 • RCP8.5 2006-2100

High End physical scenarios • Up to 2.0m SLR

• Up to 1.0m subsidence RSLR rates from 1 to 3m

Vulnerability hotspots • Deltas • Wetlands (lagoons…) • Urban beaches

Flooding (bathtub model): loss of territory

Tordera delta

Flooding by 1.0m RSLR

Flooding by 2.0m RSLR

Flooding by 3.0m RSLR

Area flooded by first meter RSLR

Area flooded by second meter RSLR

Area flooded by third meter RSLR

Flooding o High-end

conditions o Bathtub

modelling

Llobregat delta

Flooding by 1.0m RSLR

Flooding by 2.0m RSLR

Flooding by 3.0m RSLR

Area flooded by first meter RSLR

Area flooded by second meter RSLR

Area flooded by third meter RSLR

Flooding o High-end

conditions o Bathtub

modelling

Ebre delta

Flooding by 1.0m RSLR

Flooding by 2.0m RSLR

Flooding by 3.0m RSLR

Area flooded by first meter RSLR

Area flooded by second meter RSLR

Area flooded by third meter RSLR

Flooding o High-end

conditions o Bathtub

modelling

Pf ≥ 2 PfULS

PfULS ≤ Pf < 2 PfULS

0.5 PfULS ≤ Pf < PfULS

Pf < 0.5 PfULS

PROBABILITY OF FAILUREDesign useful life

RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

43

7161

69 73

84

73 7585

74 75

87

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Girona Barcelona Tarragona

Non

acc

epta

ble

failu

re b

each

es [

#]AR5 Projections

Present conditions RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

8689

83 84

99 101 102

86 83

2050 Projections2100 ProjectionsRCP 4.5 RCP 8.5RCP 2.6

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.1

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Dire

ctio

nal p

roba

bilit

y of

failu

e w

ithin

a y

ear

Pf projections - Lloret

Actual RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Dire

ctio

nal p

roba

bilit

y of

failu

e w

ithin

a y

ear

Pf projections - L'Estartit

Actual RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

Pf,ULS = 0.1

Pf,ULS = 0.01

Pf,ULS = 0.2

Pf,ULS = 0.1

Pf,ULS = 0.01

STUDY SITE

Local impact projection – Urban beaches (vulnerability hotspot)

TEST CASES

PRESENT CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

(0m) RCP 4.5 (0.47m)

RCP 8.5 (0.88m)

High End (1.80m)

Beach Normal Wave

incidence

Tr=1 yr • • • • Tr=5 yr • • • •

Tr=50 yr • • • •

time (hours)

Hs (m)

0 24

Erosion before – after storm (erosion depth in m)

Flooding at t=12.5 hours (water depth in m – minimum 0.1m )

Coastal impacts as a function of storm shape

PRESENT CONDITIONS

EROSION BARCELONETA BEACH Tr=50 YEARS (present PDF)

EROSION BARCELONETA BEACH Tr=50 YEARS HIGH END LIMIT

FLOODING BARCELONETA BEACH Tr=50 YEARS HIGH-END

CC effects on coastal infrastructure: overtopping railway lines (Imagen: El Periódico)

Tract Masnou – Premià de Mar

CC effects on coastal infrastructure: local overtopping detected by wet areas in promenade fronting railway lines

Acceptable overtopping volumes (Fukuda limits)

Direction E Tr=50 years MWL=0.2m

Direction E Tr=50 years MWL=0.88m

Direction E Tr=50 years MWL=1.8m

Scenario 0

Colera

Port de la Selva

Aiguablava

L’Estartit

Arenys de Mar

Port Olímpic

Llançà

BlanesCala Canyelles

Port Fòrum

Scenario 1

Colera

Port de la Selva

Aiguablava

L’Estartit

Arenys de Mar

Port Olímpic

Llançà

BlanesCala Canyelles

Port Fòrum

Barcelona

Scenario 2

Colera

Port de la Selva

Aiguablava

L’Estartit

Arenys de Mar

Port Olímpic

Llançà

BlanesCala Canyelles

Port Fòrum

Llafranc

Coma-rugaBarcelona

Scenario 3

Colera

Port de la Selva

Aiguablava

L’Estartit

Arenys de Mar

Port Olímpic

Llançà

BlanesCala Canyelles

Port Fòrum

Llafranc

Coma-ruga

BarcelonaVery HighHighMediumLowVery Low

S. Feliu Guíxols

Port d’Aro

Roda de Barà

Segur de Calafell

Cambrils

L’Ampolla

Alcanar

Escenaris: Escenari 0 → Situació actual: +0 m Escenari 1 → RCP4.5: +0.47 m Escenari 2 → RCP8.5: +0.88 m Escenari 3 → HES: +1.80 m Onatge: Tr = 50 anys: Tempesta excepcional Ultrapassament tolerable: De 200 l/s/m (res darrere del dic) A 0.4 l/s/m (mercaderies i equipament al moll)

Novel / Green

Interventions

Environmentally Friendly

Limited Impact

Energetically Friendly

Longer Duration

Different services

Different Phys/S-E Conditions

Flexible

Functional (under new conditions)

Modifiable

Adaptable

controlled flooding

Enhanced vertical accretion

Efficient responses

Efficient coastal responses under Climate Change should consider Multiple scale pressures: combined riverine/marine factors (ave. trends + extremes) Multiple scale responses: full catchment basin (avoiding short term “mortgages”)

RIVER

COAS

TAL

FRIN

GE

COAS

TAL

SEA

ideal management scale

usual management scales

Final Remarks 1. Management scales

Final Remarks 2. Selection of interventions

Maldives Is. SOTON 2014

Efficient coastal responses under Climate Change should consider Novel + conventional interventions (working with Nature e. g. pulsing events) Performance in terms of risk and contribution to climate mitigation Rising grounds (high end conditions)

Acknowledgements: PlanWave research project. Spanish Ministry of Science. CTM 2013-45141-R

LA COSTA CATALANA SOTA EL CANVI CLIMÀTIC IMPACTES I ADAPTACIÓ

(3er informe)

A. SANCHEZ-ARCILLA, J. P. SIERRA , V. GRACIA, M. GARCIA-LEON & C. MOSSO