Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

IPCC Informes de Evaluación del IPCC como insumo para las negociaciones en el marco de la CMNUCC

Thelma KrugCo-Presidente del Grupo de Trabajo de Inventarios

Nacionales de Gases de Efecto Invernadero

Sintesis de la Apresentación

• El IPCC y la Convención • El Principio de Precaución en la Convención• El proceso de producción de los informes de

evaluación del IPCC• Importantes hallazgos en el AR5• Hallazgos relevantes en decisiones de la Convención

El IPCC y la Convención

In the 1980s the risk of human-induced climate change was increasingly debated by scientists and policymakers and the need for independent, scientific and technical advice to inform decision-making on this important and complex issue became apparent. This is why in 1988 UNEP and WMO established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to prepare, based on available scientific information, a report on all aspects of climate change and its impacts, with a view to formulating realistic response strategies.

El IPCC y la ConvenciónThe United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) endorsed the action by UNEP and WMO to establish the IPCC and requested as soon as possible “a comprehensive review and recommendations with respect to:• The state of knowledge of the science of climate and climatic change;• Programmes and studies on the social and economic impact of climate

change, including global warming• Possible response strategies to delay, limit or mitigate the impact of adverse

climate change• The identification and possible strengthening of relevant existing international

legal instruments having a bearing on climate• Elements for inclusion in a possible future international convention on

climate”.

El IPCC y la Convención

• IPCC finalized its first comprehensive assessment report on 30 August 1990 in Sundsvall, Sweden. The United Nations General Assembly noted the report findings and as a consequence decided to initiate negotiations for an effective framework convention on climate change to be completed prior to the UN Conference on Environment and Development in June 1992.

El IPCC y la Convención

• After entry into force of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1994 the IPCC remained the most important source of scientific, technical and socio-economic information. The relationship between the UNFCCC and the IPCC became a model for interaction between science and decision-makers.

• The IPCC represents a unique partnership between the scientific community and the world’s governments.

Article 3 Convention (3) - Principles

The Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures, taking into account that policies and measures to deal with climate change should be cost-effective so as to ensure global benefits at the lowest possible cost. …

Avances sucesivos• Los modelos climáticos ha mejorado desde el AR4.

– Datos mas acurados, modelos mas realistas- Búsqueda de reducir las incertidumbres de los resultados y

proyecciones• Expressed as a qualitative level of confidence (From very low to

very high)• When possible, probabilistically, with a quantified probabilidade

– From exceptionally unlikely to virtually certain» Virtually certain -99-100%» Very likely – 90-100%» Likely – 66-100%» Unlikely – 0-33%» Very unlikely – 0-10%» Exceptionally unlikely – 0-1%

• Mayor regionalización

Ultimate Objective of the Climate Change Convention – Article 2

• To achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

Importantes resultados en el AR5• Las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero

aumentaran desde la era pre-industrial... y llevaran a concentraciones en la atmósfera de dioxido de carbono, metano y oxido nitroso sin precedentes...Es extremamente probable que sus effectos fueran la causa dominante del aquecimento observado desde la mitad del seculo XX.

• Recognizes that warming of the climate system is unequivocal and that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, as assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4); - Cancun Agreements

Importantes resultados en el AR5

• The evidence for human influence in the climate system has grown desde el AR4. It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in GHG concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.

Importantes resultados en el AR5

• Continued emission of GHG will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems. Limiting climate change would require substantial and sustained reductions of GHG emissions which, together with adaptation, can limit climate change.

Importantes resultados en el AR5• Anthropogenic GHG emissions are mainly driven by population

size, economic activity, life style, energy use, land-use patterns, technology and climate policy. The Representative Concentration Pathways which are used to make projections based on these sectors, describe four different 21st century pathways of GHG emissions and atmospheric concentrations, air pollutant emissions and land use. The RCPs include a stringent mitigation scenario (RCP 2.6), two intermediate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0) and one scenario with very high GHG emissions (RCP 8.5).

Importantes resultados en el AR5• Climate change will amplify existing risks and create

new risks for natural and human systems.

• Climate change has the characteristics of a collective action problem at the global scale, because most GHGs accumulate over time and mix globally…

• Warming will continue beyond 2100 under all RCP scenarios except el RCP 2.6.

• Without additional mitigation efforts beyond those in place today, and even with adaptation, warming by the end of the 21st century will lead to high to very high risk of severe, widespread and irreversible impacts globally (high confidence).

Importantes resultados en el AR5

• Emission scenarios leading to CO2-eq concentrations in 2010 of about 450 ppm or lower are likely to maintain warming below 2oC over the 21st century relative to pre-industrial levels. These scenarios are characterized by 40 to 70% global anthropogenic GHG emissions reductins by 2050 compared to 2010, and emission levels near zero or below in 2100.

Decision 1/CP.16 - The Cancun Agreements• Recognizes that warming of the climate system is unequivocal and

that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, as assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its Fourth Assessment Report;

• Further recognizes that deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are required according to science, and as documented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with a view to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions so as to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C above preindustrial levels, and that Parties should take urgent action to meet this long-term goal, consistent with science and on the basis of equity;

Decision 1/CP.16 - The Cancun Agreements

Urges developed country Parties to increase the ambition of their economy-wide emission reduction targets, with a view to reducing their aggregate anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol to a level consistent with the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Decision 1/CP.16 - The Cancun AgreementsDecides to periodically review the adequacy of the long-term global goal …, in the light of the ultimate objective of the Convention …(a) This review should be guided by …inter alia:The best available scientific knowledge, including the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change;To consider on an ongoing basis throughout the review the material from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as it becomes available, as well as relevant inputs referred to in decision 2/CP.17, paragraph 161, that are published after the cut-off dates of the Fifth Assessment Report, through regular scientific workshops and expert meetings and with the participation of Parties and experts, particularly from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (FCCC/CP/2012/8/Add.1)

Decision 2/CP.18 - Advancing the Durban Platform

Decides that Parties will urgently work towards the deep reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions required to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to attain a global peaking of global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, consistent with science and as documented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, reaffirming that the time frame for peaking will be longer in developing countries;

FCCC/CP/2012/8/Add.1

• Urges developed country Parties to increase the ambition of their quantified economy-wide emission reduction targets, with a view to reducing their aggregate anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol to a level consistent with the ranges documented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and subsequent Assessment Reports.

Decision 1/CP.19

The Conference of the Parties,Expressing serious concern that the warming of the climate system is unequivocal and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia, as indicated by the findings contained in the contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Decision 1/CP.19Further advancing the Durban Platform

• Warning that climate change represents an urgent and potentially irreversible threat to human societies, future generations and the planet, that continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system and that limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.

• Underlining the significant gap between the aggregate effect of Parties’ mitigation pledges in terms of global annual emissions of greenhouse gases by 2020 and aggregate emission pathways consistent with having a likely chance of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C or 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.

FCCC/CP/2014/10/Add.1 Elements for a draft negotiating text• Being guided by the best available scientific knowledge, including, inter alia,

the assessment reports / the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and inputs and resources from Parties.

• Recognizing that deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions will be required to achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention and the long-term temperature limit / holding the increase in global average temperature, and that such cuts must be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

• Also recognizing that scenarios consistent with a likely chance of holding the global average temperature increase to below 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels include substantial cuts in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century and net emission levels near zero gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent or below in 2100.

AD HOC WORKING GROUP ON THEDURBAN PLATFORM FOR ENHANCED ACTIONADP.2015.4.InformalNote, 24 JULY 2015

• These elements for a draft negotiating text reflect work in progress. They neither indicate convergence on the proposals presented nor do they preclude new proposals from emerging in the course of the negotiations in 2015.

AD HOC WORKING GROUP ON THEDURBAN PLATFORM FOR ENHANCED ACTIONADP.2015.4.InformalNote, 24 JULY 2015

• Option 1: • All Parties to take action and cooperate to further implement the Convention

in order to reach its ultimate objective as stated in its Article 2 … by achieving an emission pathway consistent with limiting the global average temperature increase to below 2 °C or 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, which entails:

• 3.1 Option (a): Ensuring significant global greenhouse gas emission reductions over the next few decades or a 40–70 per cent reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions below 2010 levels by 2050 and near-zero emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other long-lived greenhouse gases by the end of the century.

GRACIASOBRIGADA

Greenhouse gas emissions from Annex I Parties from 1990 to 2012

Percent change in GHG net emissions (1990-2012) for the different sectors

Percent change (1990-2012) per individual AI Party

Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories