Gobernanza climática tras la COP 21 y sus implicaciones para América Latina: De Copenhague a...

‘Gobernanza climá0ca tras la COP21 y sus implicaciones para América

La0na’ De Copenhague a París

Lara Lázaro Touza, PhD Senior Research Fellow

Real Ins0tuto Elcano 14/01/2016

www.realins+tutoelcano.org │ @rielcano

1.  De Copenhague a París: •  Ciencia, economía y energía •  Gobernanza climá+ca

2.  El Acuerdo de París: algunos elementos clave 3.  Conclusiones

Esquema


¿Un hito en la lucha para limitar los riesgo del cambio

climá+co o una parada más en el camino hacia el desastre?

“By comparison to what it could have been, it’s a

miracle. By comparison to what it should have been, it’s

a disaster.” George Monbiot

¿?


La ciencia •  Más robusta en 2015

Cambio climá+co inequívoco Origen antropogénico claro

Afecta a los sistemas naturales y socioeconómicos (IPCC, 2014)

•  Mayor acuerdo

97% de los cien\ficos (Cook et al., 2013) 95% de los economistas (Howard y Sylvan, 2015; Stern, 2013)

1. De Copenhague a París


La economía Impactos económicos del cambio climá+co por países en 2100


Fuente: Burke et al. (2015: 4)


Economía


Top 10 risks in terms of Likelihood Top 10 risks in terms of Impact

Interstate conflict Water crises

Extreme weather events Spread of infec+ous diseases

Failure of na+onal governance Weapons of mass destruc+on

State collapse or crisis Interstate conflict

Unemployment or underemployment Failure of climate-‐change adapta+on

Natural Catastrophes Energy price shock

Failure of climate change adapta+on Cri+cal informa+on infrastructure breakdown

Water crises Fiscal crises

Data fraud or thei Unemployment or underemployment

Cyber ajacks Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse

WEF (2015)


Global Risks 201514

Part 1

Part 2Part 3

Table 1.1.1: The Evolving Risks Landscape (2007-2015)TaTaT ble 1.1.1: The Evolving Risks Landscape (2007-2015)

Breakdown of critical information

infrastructure

Breakdown of critical information infrastructure

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1stAsset price collapse Asset price collapse Asset price collapse Fiscal crises Major systemic Major systemic

2ndRetrenchment from globalization(developed)

Retrenchment from globalization (developed)

Retrenchment from globalization (developed)

Climate change Water supply crises

Water supply crises

3rdSlowing Chinese economy (<6%)

Oil and gas price spike

Oil price spikes Geopolitical Food shortage crises imbalances

4thOil and gas price spike

Chronic disease Chronic disease Asset price collapseimbalances

5thPandemics Fiscal crises Fiscal crises Extreme energy

price volatilityExtreme volatility in energy and agriculture prices

weapons of mass destruction

Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological

Failure of climate change adaptation

Breakdown of critical information

infrastructure

Breakdown of critical information infrastructure

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1stAsset price collapse Asset price collapse Asset price collapse Storms and

cyclonesSevere income disparity

Severe income disparity

2ndMiddle East instability

Slowing Chinese economy (<6%)

Slowing Chinese economy (<6%)

Floodingimbalances imbalances

3rdFailed and failing states

Chronic disease Chronic disease Corruption Rising greenhouse gas emissions

Rising greenhouse gas emissions

4thOil and gas price spike

Global governance gaps

Fiscal crises Biodiversity loss Cyber attacks Water supply crises

5thChronic disease, developed world

Retrenchment from globalization (emerging)

Global governance gaps

Climate change Water supply crises Mismanagement of population ageing

2014

Fiscal crises

Climate change

andunderemployment

Critical information infrastructure

2014

Income disparity

events

Unemployment and underemployment

Climate change

Cyber attacks

Extreme weather

Water crises

Unemployment

breakdown

2015

Water crises

Rapid and massivespread of infectiousdiseases

Failure ofclimate-changeadaptation

2015

Interstate conflictwith regionalconsequences

Failure of nationalgovernance

State collapse orcrisis

High structuralunemployment orunderemployment

Extreme weatherevents

Weapons of massdestruction

Interstate conflictwith regionalconsequences

2007

Breakdown ofcritical informationinfrastructure

Chronic diseasein developed countries

Oil price shock

China economic hard landing

Asset price collapse

Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Likelihood

Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Impact2007

Asset price collapse

Retrenchment from globalization

Interstate andcivil wars

Pandemics

Oil price shock

Source: Global Risks reports 2007-2015, World Economic Forum. Note: Global risks may not be strictly comparable across years, as definitions and the set of global risks have evolved with new issues emerging on the 10-year horizon. For example, cyber attacks, income disparity and unemployment entered the set of global risks in 2012. Some global risks were reclassified: water crises and rising income disparity were recategorized as societal risks and as a trend, respectively, in 2015. The 2006 edition of the Global Risks report did not have a risks landscape.

Box 1.1: The evolution of the risks of highest impact/likelihood

As the report’s 10th anniversary approaches, the evolution of the perceived top five global risks can be viewed in terms of impact and likelihood as documented in the Global Risks reports from 2007 to 2015. As Table 1.1.1 shows, economic risks largely dominated from 2007 to 2014, with the risk of an asset-price collapse heading the list in the run-up to the financial crisis, giving way to concerns about the more immediate but slow-burning consequences of constrained fiscal finances, a major systemic financial failure in the immediate post-crisis years, and income disparity. This year features a radical departure from the past decade; for the first time in the report’s history, economic risks feature only marginally in the top five. In the 25th year after the fall of the Berlin Wall, geopolitical risks are back on the agenda. The dispute over Crimea in March 2014 serves as a forceful reminder of the consequences of interstate conflicts with regional consequences that seemed long forgotten and unfathomable, as further explored in this report. Similarly, together with other events in 2014, such as the prominent rise of the Islamic State, it has brought state collapse and the failure of national governance back into public consciousness. At the same time, health-related risks, such as pandemics – last considered impactful in 2008 – have made it back into the unglamorous top, following the unprecedented spread of Ebola.

On a higher level, Table 1.1.1 also indicates a shift over past years away from economic risks in general to environmental risks – ranging from climate change to water crises. While this highlights a recognition of the importance of these slow-burning issues, strikingly little progress has been made to address them in light of their far-reaching and detrimental consequences for this and future generations.


Economía/energía El riesgo climá+co en las carteras de inversión. Recursos varados: ¿un problema futuro? (BlackRock, 2015) Reservas sin explotar para limitar el aumento a 2ºC:

ü  1/3 de las reservas de petróleo

ü  ½ de las reservas de gas

ü  80% de las reservas de carbón deberían permanecer sin explotar para limitar


Fuente: The Carbon Brief (2015). Basado en McGlade y Ekins (2015)


Energía •  Avance de las energías

renovables. Algunas razones (IDAE, 2014): 1)  Reducción del coste de

las renovables (IRENA, 2014) y elevado precio del crudo hasta 06/2014: v  PV: 80% desde 2008 v  Eólica onshore: 18%

desde 2009 2)  Lucha contra el cambio

climá+co 3)  Independencia

energé+ca 4)  Seguridad de

suministro 5)  Compe++vidad

nacional, desarrollo tecnológico y creación de empleo.


11/1/16 9:43Fossil Fuels Just Lost the Race Against Renewables - Bloomberg Business

Página 2 de 5http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-14/fossil-fuels-just-lost-the-race-against-renewables#media-1

The price of wind and solar power continues to plummet, and is now on par or cheaper than grid electricity

in many areas of the world. Solar, the newest major source of energy in the mix, makes up less than 1

percent of the electricity market today but could be the world’s biggest single source by 2050, according to

the International Energy Agency.

The question is no longer if the world will transition to cleaner energy, but how long it will take. In the chart

below, BNEF forecasts the billions of dollars that need to be invested each year in order to avoid the most

severe consequences of climate change, represented by a benchmark increase of more than 2 degrees

Celsius.

The blue lines are what's needed, in billions; the red lines show what's actually being spent. Since the

financial crisis, funding has fallen well short of the target, according to BNEF.

Investment Needed to Minimize Climate Change

An earlier version of this story represented the IEA's scenario for solar in 2050 as a forecast when it was infact one of several possible scenarios. The IEA does not make any forecasts for specific expectations after

the 5-year mark, according to spokesman Greg Frost.

Read This Next:

Power generation capacity additions (GW) Bloomberg New

Energy Finance

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

1 / 3

Power generation capacity additions (GW)Bloomberg New Energy Finance

‘The ques:on is no longer if the world will transi:on to cleaner energy, but how long it will take’. Randall, T. (2015)


Gobernanza climá4ca •  Diplomacia francesa

²  Trabajo, escucha, inclusión e innovación

²  Rebaja expecta+vas •  Grandes emisores en marcha

²  Anuncio conjunto China-‐EE.UU

²  India ²  UE

•  BoGom-‐up: INDCs como hito insuficiente ²  98% de las emisiones

incluidas ²  2.7ºC


•  Otros actores: ²  LPAA Más de 10.000 acciones

concretas en más de 2.000 ciudades. Más de 2.000 empresas involucradas y más de 200 organizaciones no gubernamentales.

²  El Papa Francisco publica su carta encíclica ‘Laudato Si’



B L A C K R O C K I N V E S T M E N T I N S T I T U T E [ 5 ]

Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute and Bloomberg New Energy Finance, October 2015.Note: the countries in green have submitted intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) toward creating a lower-carbon world post 2020.

MEXICO22% belowcurrent by 2030

BRAZIL37% below2005 levels by 2025;43% below by 2030

EU40% below1990 by 2030

AUSTRALIA26%-28%below 2005 by 2030

INDIAemissions intensity 33%-35% below 2005 by 2030

JAPAN26% below 2013 by 2030

RUSSIA25%-30% below 1990 by 2030

SOUTH KOREA 37% below current by 2030

CHINA emissions intensity 60%-65% below 2005 by 2030

CANADA 30% below2005 by 2030

US 26%-28% below 2005 by 2025

PROMISES, PROMISESCountries with pledges to reduce emissions after 2020

GOOD OR BAD COP 21? Promises of emissions cuts are thick in the air. See the map above. Most countries will likely lowball their initial targets. This is not necessarily a bad thing. Some proponents of emissions cuts would say it is better to pick something achievable and ratchet up the target once you have proven it is possible to cut emissions without hurting growth.

China’s target is a case in point. Most analysts expect its emissions to peak by the mid-2020s. Yet the country’s official targets factor in a peak in 2030. This should allow China to give the appearance of overachieving (a diplomatic gift that keeps on giving).

It is also key to understand how emissions reductions are achieved. Europe’s emissions, for example, are down by some measures – in part because growth has faltered. This is not a good model to export to the rest of the world.

A signpost of whether COP 21 will have teeth is whether the delegates can agree on regular reviews (say, every five years) that include gradual ratcheting up of targets.

Another signpost would be the adoption of accounting guidelines that help price climate risks across the financial system. International financial regulators appear to be moving toward eventually incorporating an assessment of climate risk into accounting standards.

CHANGE MANAGEMENT? Will COP 21 actually mitigate climate change? We do not know, and doubt anybody does. Yet we keep at least three points in mind:

1 Politicians often take significant action only when they have their backs against a wall. This sense of urgency has been lacking – and it may not change soon.

2 Energy efficiency can reduce emissions significantly. The use of fuel-efficient vehicles and energy-saving appliances and lighting will save more than 700 million tonnes of oil equivalent annually by 2040, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). This roughly equals the combined annual oil consumption of Germany, France and the UK today. Solutions will range from low-tech (insulation) to high-tech (‘smart grids’ that use technology to efficiently match electricity demand and supply). This is already happening. Regulations on emissions and efficiency standards will likely accelerate the change.

3 Other technology advances and shifting consumer preferences also have the potential to uproot the carbon status quo. Wind power has become cost competitive with traditional sources of electricity generation, according to the IEA. Solar panel prices halved between 2010 and the end of 2014. See page 11 for details.


Algunos elementos clave del ‘Acuerdo de París’ y de la decisión

2. El Acuerdo de París

Área Status Comentario

Tipo de acuerdo Legalmente vinculante

Los obje4vos no son legalmente vinculantes. No hay sanciones por incumplimiento

Diferenciación CBDR-‐RC teniendo en cuenta las circunstancias nacionales

Principio incluido en la CMNUCC.

Mi+gación y ambición Limitar el aumento medio de las temperaturas a 2ºC, aspiramos a 1.5ºC

Demanda histórica de los SIDS y otros amenazados por el aumento en el nivel del mar


Elementos clave del ‘Acuerdo de París’ y de la decisión



Mi+gación &

Ambición

Las emisiones alcanzarán un máximo lo antes posible.

Las emisiones de los PED alcanzarán un máximo más tarde.

Se alcanzará un equilibrio entre las emisiones y la eliminación de las mismas por los sumideros en la segunda mitad de siglo.

No se incluyeron en el acuerdo obje+vos cuan+ficados.

Las contribuciones previstas determinadas a nivel nacional se presentarán cada 5 años

La ambición debe ser creciente.

Las Partes deben conservar y aumentar los sumideros.

¼ aprox. de las emisiones proviene de AFOLU





Progreso Primer balance mundial en 2023 y quinquenalmente después de esa fecha. Diálogo de facilitación en 2018 para analizar el progreso en relación con el obje+vo a largo plazo.

El balance y diálogo de facilitación ayudará en teoría a a actualizar los compromisos y a aumentar la ambición. El balance tendrá en cuenta ‘mi+gación, la adaptación, los medios de aplicación y el apoyo, …equidad e información cien\fica disponible’

Financiación US$ 100.000 millones anuales 2020-‐2025. Nuevo obje+vo en 2025 con US$ 100.000 como suelo.

PD deben aportar financiación. PED pueden aportar financiación. No se incluyeron obje+vos de financiación intermedios.

Adaptación Obje+vo: aumentar la capacidad de adaptación. Se desarrollarán métodos para el reconocimiento de los esfuerzos de adaptación de los PED.

Se pide al Fondo Verde para el Clima ayuda para la elaboración de los programas de adaptación de PED.





Pérdidas y daños

Con+nuará el trabajo del Mecanismo Internacional de Varsovia para las Pérdidas y los Daños.

Las pérdidas y los daños ocasionados por el cambio climá+co no implican responsabilidad jurídica ni darán lugar a indemnizaciones.

Transparencia Se establece una Inicia+va para el Fomento de la Capacidad de Transparencia.

Las Partes del Acuerdo se someterán a un marco común de transparencia.

Fomento de la Capacidad

Se establece el Comité de París sobre el Fomento de la Capacidad y su plan de trabajo 2016-‐2020.

Foco: analizar carencias, elaborar herramientas coordinar trabajo, evitar duplicidades.

Desarrollo y transferencia tecnológica

Se establece un marco tecnológico para facilitar, entre otros entender las necesidades tecnológicas, la implementación, etc.

Se dará apoyo financiero a los países


De Copenhague a París: •  Un mundo diferente: movimiento de placas tectónicas y alineaciones

planetarias. El Acuerdo de París: •  Victoria diplomá+ca histórica –

salvando el proceso mul+lateral…por el momento

•  La implementación será clave

•  La ambición creciente es imprescindible

•  Elementos posi+vos

•  ¡Mucho trabajo por hacer para limitar una interferencia peligrosa con el clima!

3. Conclusiones


‘This agreement sends a powerful signal that the world is commijed to a low carbon future and that has the poten+al to unleash

investment in clean energy at a scale we have never seen before ’ Barack Obama

‘Oil and gas sector downplay the

agreement saying the agreement is

unlikely to change economic choices as dev

eloping countries plan on

keep burning fossil fuels…which

opens the door to CCS’. FT

"in a bit of

a shock, a

happy sho

ck"

aier the d

eal was gav

eled on

Saturday. K

im

A "sign of hope that we will manage to secure the life condi+ons of billions of people for the future.” Merkel

The wheel of climate ac+on turns slowly, but in Paris it has turned. There’s much in this deal that frustrates and disappoints me, but it s+ll puts the fossil fuel industry squarely on the wrong side of history, Naidoo


The deal would “

speed up the dep

loyment of renewable

and other zero an

d low-‐carbon ene

rgy sources”.

Barclays

“That 1.

5C might be a target, b

ut it means NGOs will b

e

striving for the c

omplete phase-‐out

of fossil fuels ver

y

quickly, which m

eans we will be h

ated and vilified i

n the

same way slave trad

ers were.” Brian

Rickejs, secretar

y

general of Eurac

oal


Más información en: ‘COP21 and the Paris Agreement: a diplomacy masterclass in search of greater climate

ambi0on’

hjp://www.realins+tutoelcano.org/wps/portal/web/rielcano_en/contenido?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/zonas_in/ari2-‐2016-‐lazarotouza-‐cop21-‐paris-‐agreement-‐diplomacy-‐masterclass-‐search-‐greater-‐climate-‐ambi+on

¡Muchas gracias! @lazarotouza

[email protected]

Gobernanza climática tras la COP 21 y sus implicaciones para América Latina: De Copenhague a...

Environment

Transcript of Gobernanza climática tras la COP 21 y sus implicaciones para América Latina: De Copenhague a...