El mayor efecto de la actual crisis sobre el comercio mundial de … · 2020-06-30 · El mayor...
16
FOCUS President’s Letter Karen Higgins Valentine Dear Members and Colleagues, is will be my last President’s Letter as I will be rolling off as chapter president in October, and handing over this role to my wonderful and very capable Board colleague, Gemma Dreher. Being chapter president for the past two years has been an exciting, dynamic and rewarding role, and I want to reflect on some of the success we’ve shared together. When we first outlined our three core priorities in Q1 2018, our Board set out to: (1) increase mem- bership awareness and involvement in our chapter’s offerings, (2) strengthen our spon- sorship base, and (3) maximize our chapter’s value for both members and sponsors. Over the past two years, our chapter has increased outreach activities outside of the Boston area to membership locations such as Rhode Island and New Hampshire. is has allowed us to increase membership involvement and expand our face-to-face interactions amongst a broader segment of our membership. On the sponsorship side, we’ve maintained our strong sponsorship base, while adding new sponsors throughout the Northeast. And lastly, we’ve added an array of new programs promoting wellness for our next generation of members as well as more webinars, talks, networking events and socials. With a focus on these priorities, we are pleased with the accomplishments of the past few years. And we will continue, through our chapter’s hard work and determination, to ensure that our offerings will continue to be significant and relevant for our members and sponsors. ACC has always proven to be a valuable addition to my legal career, and I am excited to remain an active Board member and support Gemma in her new role as chapter president. Volunteering & Board Service When I joined the ACC Northeast Board several years ago, it was at a time in my career where I had the bandwidth to take on new challenges. As is oſten the case, how- ever, the demands of my day job kicked into high gear and put greater demands on my availability. Peers would sometimes ask how I have the time to do it all? But the reality is, being active in ACC has enabled me to be more efficient, confident and effective in my career as general counsel. My service on the ACC Northeast Board has been additive, and not distractive, to my pro- fessional advancements. As I roll off as presi- dent, I look forward to remaining an active member of the Board, and I’m delighted to support Gemma’s transition into her new role as chapter president. In addition, I am excited to join several of our members representing our chapter in Phoenix at the ACC Annual Meeting, and I hope to see many of you there. Just recently, a survey of our membership found that over 40 percent of respondents would like to explore further opportunities to volunteer with ACC Northeast. Please reach out to me or any other member of our Board if you are interested in hearing more about how you can join a Board committee or otherwise become more involved with our chapter. Many opportunities exist and your feedback along with your involvement is welcome! The Unique Role of Corporate Counsel ACC has built a strong organization with dedicated staff and interna- tional support around in-house legal depart- ments and corporate counsel. e unique functions of our job are what bring us together and what makes ACC Northeast so successful. As you know, we in-house legal profession- als wear many hats over the course of our careers. At times we may be neck-deep in regulatory work while another day, we may be reviewing contracts. Oſten times we are interacting with nearly every department of a company and having an impact on the company culture as a whole. is style of legal practice is demanding, enriching, but difficult to understand for those not living it. at’s what makes ACC membership so valuable. By bringing in-house and corporate counsel together for CLEs and networking, we can gather tips and take best practices from one another, and discover new ways to be better at our jobs. I want to close by thanking all of you for allowing me to have so much fun and satisfac- tion these past few years. It has been a plea- sure to be your president and I look forward to many more years with ACC Northeast. Communications Committee Communications Committee and Newsletter Editorial Board: Stephanie Lambert (editor- in-chief), Brian Ciaramicoli, James Coughlin, and Patrick Wu. Additional contributors in Q3: Alex Aferiat and Gwenn Roos Inside Q3 2019 WHERE LEADERSHIP COMES INTO VIEW 2 ..... The Modern Partnership: In-house and Outside Counsel 3 ..... ACC News 4 ..... Recent Program Recap 10 ....Upcoming Event 12.... Out & About with NEXT GEN 12.... See you at the ANNUAL Meeting 13.... Welcome New and Renewing Members! 16.... Board of Directors
Transcript of El mayor efecto de la actual crisis sobre el comercio mundial de … · 2020-06-30 · El mayor...
OEMV Página 1
Presentación del OeMv en la OIV sobre el mercado mundial del vino en plena crisis de la COVID19
El mayor efecto de la actual crisis sobre el comercio mundial de vino se produce en los precios medios
de las exportaciones
Aunque los datos cambian cada semana, pero con la mayor parte de los productores y mercados actualizados a marzo del 2020, se comprueba que el comercio mundial de vino apenas ha dismi-nuido en ese mes, pero sí se han reducido notablemente los precios medios y, por lo tanto, la facturación en euros.
Junio 2020 – El OeMv ha presentado
este 16 de junio, en el grupo de trabajo
de Mercados de la OIV, la situación de
los mercados mundiales y los efectos
que hasta la fecha pueden destacarse
derivados de la crisis del coronavirus.
Para conocer el efecto de la crisis sobre
las tendencias mundiales en el comercio
del vino, debe conocerse la situación de
partida y cuáles eran esas tendencias
antes de la crisis. En líneas generales, se
observaba hasta finales del 2019 una
cierta estabilidad de los intercambios en
términos de litros, pero con crecimiento
sostenido de los precios medios y, por lo
tanto, el incremento de la facturación,
de una forma estable desde 2009 y que
alcanzó a finales del pasado año la cifra
de 31.777 millones de euros.
Tendencias generales, sin embargo, que
deben distinguir claramente entre los vi-
nos envasados (espumosos y no espu-
mosos) y los vinos a granel, dado que los
primeros dependen directamente de la
evolución del consumo mundial de vino,
mientras los segundos dependen de las
producciones y las necesidades de vino
de los principales productores y, solo in-
directamente, de cómo evoluciona el
consumo mundial. El análisis presenta
una breve evolución diferenciada de es-
tos dos tipos de vinos.
En los meses más recientes, y con cifras
consolidadas en la mayor parte de paí-
ses hasta marzo de este año, es decir,
hasta el primer mes de mayor efecto de
la crisis, con algunos datos de algunos
países hasta abril, se observa una caída
pronunciada de la facturación mundial
del comercio de vino. En marzo del
2020, comparado con el mismo mes del
año anterior el comercio mundial de
vino cayó un 10,7%, que se produce des-
pués de que también en febrero, las
ventas se redujeran un 6,3%. Mala evo-
lución de la facturación mundial, sin em-
bargo, que no esta tan clara en términos
de volumen, pues la caída del mes de
marzo en litros fue del 1,1%, incluso me-
nor que la de febrero (-3,8%) y que la de
otros meses previos al impacto de la
COVID19. Es decir, si la caída es mayor
OEMV Página 2
en euros que en litros, es porque lo que
ha caído es fundamentalmente el precio
medio del vino exportado mundial-
mente.
Pasando al análisis de los diferentes
mercados y distinguiendo entre aque-
llos para los que existen datos del mes
de abril y los que solo los tienen hasta
marzo, se observa una pronunciada
caída de las compras de vino en China,
que pierde en los primeros cuatro me-
ses del año más de una cuarta parte de
sus importaciones, aunque estos meses
continúan una tendencia descendente
que ya venía del año 2019. Caídas im-
portantes, que se producen también en
Suiza (en valor) y Francia, así como en
Brasil. Por el contrario, Canadá, Austra-
lia, Noruega, Bielorrusia y en menor me-
dida Cora del Sur aumentaron sus com-
pras de vino en ellos primeros cuatro
meses de este año.
Para aquellos mercados en los que solo
hay datos del primer trimestre, Reino
Unido, Alemania y Rusia disminuyeron
sus importaciones, mientras Irlanda las
aumentó sensiblemente, así como la Re-
pública Checa y también España, aun-
que debido en nuestro caso a importa-
ciones puntuales de vino de Argentina a
granel.
Las conclusiones sobre los datos exis-
tentes del comercio mundial de vino a
esta fecha y los efectos de la COVID19,
así como algunos apuntes sobre cómo la
pandemia está afectando ya al comercio
global, al canal HoReCa, al turismo y a
las perspectivas económicas mundiales,
se incluyen en el análisis, junto con las
previsiones realizadas por el IWSR sobre
diferente evolución de la producción
mundial de vino y su consumo, con una
brecha que podría ampliarse en 2020.
Se adjuntan datos y gráficos
Para más información, dirigirse al Observatorio Español del Mercado del Vino
www.oemv.es - Tel. 91 799 26 66 - [email protected]
El autor de este documento es la Fundación Observatorio Español del Mercado del Vino (OeMv). Este documento
es solo para uso individual por parte de quien lo adquiere. Todos los datos son susceptibles de cualquier cambio
o modificación que pudieran requerir sin notificación alguna por parte del OeMv. Todos los derechos de autor
quedan reservados, de acuerdo con el artículo 17 y siguientes de la Ley de Propiedad Intelectual.
June, 2020
COVID19 effects on
international wine trade
Rafael del ReySpanish Observatory of Wine Markets
OIV, Jun 2020 1
Available data
OIV, Jun 2020 2
Among top exporters, only Australia, Chile, USA, New Zealand and Argentina show figures for April, but most give them up to March.
Jan Feb Mar Apr
0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500
Latvia
Netherlands
Singapur
South África
Argentina
U Kingdom
Portugal
Germany
New Zealand
USA
Chile
Australia
Spain
Italy
France
Top WineEXporters
JanFebMarApr
02004006008001.0001.2001.4001.6001.800
Singapur
Denmark
Sweden
France
Belgium
Hong Kong
Russia
Switzerland
Nethelands
Japan
Canadá
China
Germany
U Kingdom
USA
Top WineIMporters
Among top importers, mostly Asian countries like China, Japan, HK, and Singapore show data for April, while some
European (Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden and Denmark only have them until February)
Quite a good estimation of how
things evolved until March can be given.
81% of total
World iIMports
94% of total
World EXports
Baseline: Where do we come from?
OIV, Jun 2020 3
2011
; 23.
348 20
19; 3
1.77
7
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
2000200220042006200820102012201420162018
World imports MOVIL y-t-y
Value Mill €
Up to December 2019, international trade of wine was relatively stable in volume terms (particularly since 2011) although improving average prices and, therefore, total value..
2011
; 10.
077
2019
; 10.
402
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Mill
ones
Volume Mill l
2,27
2,30
2,27
2,19
2,13
2,15
2,17
2,20 2,27
2,08 2,
23 2,32 2,
52 2,61
2,54 2,
75 2,85 2,89 3,
09
3,05
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
€/l
Baseline: Where do we come from?
OIV, Jun 2020 4
However, differentiation has to be made between bottled and bulk wines, since the former directly depend on world consumption, whereas a large part of the latter depends directly on needs of producing countries and indirectly on global consumption. In terms of value:
2009; 16.199
2019; 28.588
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
20.000
22.000
24.000
26.000
28.000
30.000
World exports of BOTLED wines
Value Mill €
2009; 1.867
2019; 3.189
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
World exports of BULK, BiB wine
& MUST
Value Mill €
Bottled wines (sparkling and non sparkling) have sharply grown since the crisis of 2009, increasing by more than 12 billion € in 11 years.
Over the same period, bulk, BiB & must showed higher instability, probably due to higher dependence on price and needs of different actors, based on their respective productions and inventories.
Baseline: Where do we come from?
OIV, Jun 2020 5
This discrepancy is more evident in terms of volume:
2009; 5.477
2019; 6.489
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
World exports of BOTLED wines
Volume Mill l
2009; 3.209
2011; 3.943
2019; 3.913
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
World exports of BULK, BiB wine
& MUST
Volume Mill l
Bottled wines have also grown quite steadily although with some ups and downs: Down in 2009 but also in 2013 and 2018
after short crops in each of their previous years (and consequent price increase)
Sharply up between 2009 and 2012 as well as in 2017
And recovering in 2019More due, however, to sparkling (CAGR 09-19 of 6%) than to non sparkling (CAGR 1.2%)
Bulk, BiB and must, on the other hand, show two completely different periods over the last 20 years: Sharp increase between 2001 and 2011 And great stability since then, around 39 M hl
Baseline: Where do we come from?
OIV, Jun 2020 6
The effect of both, value and volume, is shown in – or produced by - average prices:
2009; 2,96
2019; 4,41
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
4,50
World exports of BOTLED wines
€/l
2009; 0,58
2011; 0,63
2019; 0,81
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
0,70
0,80
0,90
1,00
World exports of BULK, BiB wine
& MUST
€/lGrowing for bottled wines almost constantly since 2009, for a total increase of 1.45 € per litre (almost 50%)
More variable for bulk, BiB and must, depending on crops and needs, but with an overall growth of 23
cent of Euro, equivalent to almost 40% since 2009.
Recent evolution of exports
OIV, Jun 2020 7
In most recent months, with figures from most import countries up to March 2020 (and estimations for Hungary and other top exporters, making March figure = February’s), world exports of wine show an unexpected and record monthly 10.7% decrease in Euros, comparing March 2020 with same month of previous year. In absolute terms, this means 277.1 million Euros less this March. This large decline follows an also negative but less dramatic 6.3% decrease in February this year.
3,0%
-6,3%
-10,7%
31.658 31.425
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
26.500
27.000
27.500
28.000
28.500
29.000
29.500
30.000
30.500
31.000
31.500
32.000
12/2
016
01/2
017
02/2
017
03/2
017
04/2
017
05/2
017
06/2
017
07/2
017
08/2
017
09/2
017
10/2
017
11/2
017
12/2
017
01/2
018
02/2
018
03/2
018
04/2
018
05/2
018
06/2
018
07/2
018
08/2
018
09/2
018
10/2
018
11/2
018
12/2
018
01/2
019
02/2
019
03/2
019
04/2
019
05/2
019
06/2
019
07/2
019
08/2
019
09/2
019
10/2
019
11/2
019
12/2
019
01/2
020
02/2
020
03/2
020
World imports MOVIL y-t-yVALUE (mill €)
Mont chg € Y-t-Y Value
2,310.8 M€ - 2,587,9 M€ = -277,1 M€ (-10.7%)
Recent evolution of exports
OIV, Jun 2020 8
In volume, the decrease of world exports in March (considering lacking countries with March figure equal to February’s) is not so obvious, giving – among other things – to good figures from Italy: overall 1.1% less than in March 2019 with a month-to-month loss of only 9.2 million litres, and an almost flat evolution (0.6%) in the year-to-year figures.Exports were actually decreasing in previous months, with even higher rates in January and February
-4,9%
-3,8%
-1,1%
10.264
10.403 10.323
-17%
-7%
3%
13%
23%
33%
9.600
9.700
9.800
9.900
10.000
10.100
10.200
10.300
10.400
10.500
10.600
10.700
10.800
12/2
016
01/2
017
02/2
017
03/2
017
04/2
017
05/2
017
06/2
017
07/2
017
08/2
017
09/2
017
10/2
017
11/2
017
12/2
017
01/2
018
02/2
018
03/2
018
04/2
018
05/2
018
06/2
018
07/2
018
08/2
018
09/2
018
10/2
018
11/2
018
12/2
018
01/2
019
02/2
019
03/2
019
04/2
019
05/2
019
06/2
019
07/2
019
08/2
019
09/2
019
10/2
019
11/2
019
12/2
019
01/2
020
02/2
020
03/2
020
Mill
ones
World imports MOVIL y-t-yVOLUME (mill l)
Mont chg L Y-t-Y volume
823.3 Ml – 832.6 Ml = -9.26 Ml (-1.1%)
Recent evolution of exports
OIV, Jun 2020 9
Therefore, according to the data available, what shows a larger decrease is the average price of world wine exports, down 9.7% in March 2020 as compared to same month of previous year, vis a vis greater stability since the end of 2018 and even a healthy growth of 8.2% in January.
8,2%
-2,6%-9,7%
3,08
3,05
3,04
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
2,60
2,70
2,80
2,90
3,00
3,10
3,20
12/2
016
01/2
017
02/2
017
03/2
017
04/2
017
05/2
017
06/2
017
07/2
017
08/2
017
09/2
017
10/2
017
11/2
017
12/2
017
01/2
018
02/2
018
03/2
018
04/2
018
05/2
018
06/2
018
07/2
018
08/2
018
09/2
018
10/2
018
11/2
018
12/2
018
01/2
019
02/2
019
03/2
019
04/2
019
05/2
019
06/2
019
07/2
019
08/2
019
09/2
019
10/2
019
11/2
019
12/2
019
01/2
020
02/2
020
03/2
020
World imports MOVIL y-t-yAVERAGE PRICE (€ / l)
Mont chg €/l TAM €/l
From the perspective of the markets…
OIV, Jun 2020 10
Countries for which we have data up to April 2020
Among those countries with data up to April:• In Asia, China is the most
affected and imports one quarter less in the first 4 months of this year as compared to same period in 2019
• Japan reduces its wine imports but only significantly in volume (-5.2%)
• And South Korea remains quite flat
• Outside Asia, the USA and Canada show moderate changes
• France and Switzerland buy less wine
• Norway increases purchase• While Brazil buys much less
wine although more expensive0,16
0,41
-11,41
2,71
4,23
-31,26
-2,06
-4,63
-50,55
3,28
-8,08
1,30
0,09
1,50
1,49
-3,19
-34,97
-61,80
0,50
-195,40
14,46
27,32
1,1%
2,1%
-26,2%
10,0%
15,0%
-12,9%
-3,5%
-5,2%
-25,0%
2,4%
-1,9%
1,7%
0,6%
1,7%
1,3%
-2,4%
-13,0%
-17,0%
0,1%
-27,0%
2,8%
1,5%
South Korea
Belarus
Brazil
Norway
Australia
France
Switzerland
Japan
China
Canadá
USA
ChgJan-Apr2019 vs 2020
Chg M € Chg M l Chg Val % Chg vol %
From the perspective of the markets…
OIV, Jun 2020 11
Countries for which we have data up to March 2020
Among those countries with data up to March:• UK, Germany and Russia
have reduced their purchase of foreign wine quite heavily, particularly in volume
• Italy imports, during the first quarter, more wine at lower prices
• Spain – after a short crop – increased its purchase basically from Argentina and for low price bulk wine
• While Ireland, Lithuania and Portugal increased imports of wine in both litres and Euros
1,59
1,08
27,86
0,43
14,15
2,47
4,97
-11,25
-24,81
-47,32
2,13
4,33
8,34
-4,10
3,89
-0,60
16,46
-3,16
-34,58
-110,05
2,5%
5,3%
2,6%
47,0%
7,3%
27,0%
-13,3%
-7,2%
-14,4%
5,5%
10,6%
22,3%
-8,1%
7,8%
-0,9%
26,5%
-1,6%
-5,8%
-12,1%
Portugal
Lithuania
Spain
Austria
Tchek Rep
Italy
Ireland
Russia
Germany
UKChg
Jan-Mar 2019 vs 2020
Chg M € Chg M l Chg Val % Chg vol %
Therefore, has COVID-19 affected international trade of wine?
OIV, Jun 2020 12
It is quite early to say, giving the lack of data; only available for some countries up to April and for most up to March
A 10.7% decline of wine exports in March 2020 in Euros can be estimated, although much less clear (-1.1%) in litres, what means that a deep fall of average wine prices (9.7%) took place that month
China (with data available up to April) shows the most negative figures, losing more than a quarter of its imports during the initial 4 months of this year, although following a previous negative trend since August 2018.
France reduces its purchase of foreign wine by around 13% in four months The USA remains quite flat Among those with figures up to March, UK, Germany and Russia also reduced
their imports of wine during the first quarter, while Ireland and the Chek Rep increased them.
What may happen?
OIV, Jun 2020 13
Who knows, but…
Some hints:
Global trade is declining
Also tourism suffers
Outlook is pretty dark
… and we are facing a new harvest in the Northern
Hemisphere, that may increase production, and
therefore inventories and therefore surplus.
COVID 19 has deeply
affected and will affect
on-trade sales (so far,
prices)
MeasuresIWSR forcast
June, 2020
COVID19 effects on
international wine trade
Rafael del ReySpanish Observatory of Wine Markets
OIV, Jun 2020 14
