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MÖ GIS &×Ø;`ÙÚ!\Èî-.àÛ;^+Ü¥ ¼E·×̸¹ª(·¹ª z%&A|¥$Hz9£¡¾ 830046 45 ./`aºfHªIJ:»¼st~½4。[ OP ¾¿FBÀArcMap10.3 BqÁ³2009 T 2016 w/ijâkÂÉ7<Ø¿F/ÊrA:»¼]0ERI ÿÃß GIS YZÄ+Å%A*uSØ¿FHªIJ:»¼÷ ÇñÂ~åæÈ¥/:»¼/Ä+uLMJÿ¼r¼Æ½4Çu½4¿F 2020 w/HªIJ67ñò01HªIJ 67/ñòX ¾Èuºf:»¼/âã。[ 6b2009 2016 w¿FªT<@Jªdyûü]ªîªáfT9 ÉJªdyÚók(¼r½4Zª8 2016 w>é2020 w<@JªT9ÉJªdyÚóûüª]ªîªTáfdyÚóP {2009 w¿F ERI B 0.024 2016 wû;B 0.026 ùú:<=/³JÊò2020 wû;¬ 0.031 。[ 6õY(HªIJ677 ËrËr®Ì@üCD<=/õ¿F7/:JªK$S:/ÏÐÑÒ()®úÓ÷X<=¦[/ åÑâã678 HªIJ:»¼º¿F 9:;<= X826 F301.24  >?@AB >CD= 0517-6611 2019 02-0052-05 doi 10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2019.02.016      EFGHIJKL@ABOSID ): EcologicalRiskAnalysisandPredictionofLandUseinOasisCountyofAridAreaBasedonGIS MALina ZHANGYongfu ADILAIAdili KeyLaboratoryofOasisEcology XinjiangUniversity Urumqi Xinjiang830046 Abstract Objective Theresearchaimedtostudytheecologicalriskassessmentandpredictionoflanduseintheoasiscountyofaridarea. Method TakingBaichengCountyofXinjiangastheresearchobject underthesupportofArcMap10.3technology theremotesensingimages from2009and2016astheinformationsource.Thisarticleconstructedthecomprehensiveecologicalriskindex ERI ofBaichengCountyand usedthespatialinterpolationmethodofArcGIStoanalysethedynamicevolutionofecologicalriskoflanduseinBaichengCountyandthespa tialdifferentiationcharacteristicsofdifferentlevelsofecologicalrisk.ThechangeoflandusestructureinBaichengCountyin2020waspredic tedbyMarkovpredictionmodel andtheecologicalriskinfluenceofthechangeoflandusestructureonoasiscountiesintypicalaridareasof Xinjiangwasrevealed. Result Theareaofcultivatedlandandconstructionlandwereincreasingfrom2009to2016 theareaofforestland grassland waterandotherlandweredecreasingsignificantly.Throughforecasting comparedwith2016 theareaofconstructionlandandoth erlandwereincreasingsignificantlyin2020 whiletheareaofcultivatedland forestland grasslandandwaterweredecreasingsignificantly. TheERIofBaichengCountyin2009was0.024 andincreasedto0.029in2016 andwiththecontinuousdeteriorationoftheecologicalenvi ronment itwillincreaseto0.031in2020. Conclusion Inthefutureadjustmentoflandusestructure peopleshouldstrengthentheiraware nessofprotectingtheenvironment buildagoodpatternofecologicallandinBaichengCounty improvetheecosystemservicefunction and reducethenegativeimpactofhumanactivitiesontheenvironment. Keywords Landuse Ecologicalrisk Aridoasis BaichengCounty PQRS ¼E·1993- ), ; ¾¹K±®ÀÁ`a:`aO?:½æ8ÞÉIJTUVW 2018-08-21 C~2A|-.i=F?p¤pq!"Vb< %¬-Ñ4C~2îï?aÖ^ÇC~)£ ÑЬ|Qvá%A!"<V4:?=|i& |VC~A|ô37IzFö?[HFi½-Ñ A|ô3o?Î2ÌÁp¤pqT!"é?E- ºô A|!"Tÿ¬?%pqp¤-¹CÎ2{ 6EN?C~2ÕÈÉâ~Ö"?A|-þ %0l?C~2ÕÈ}}¹ºÇ?C~2îïT % ³øù6?A|!" .=Ë<k?%A!".@ÌO ,E,ö0o?6.Áô@%A-T[ ·?Ü*Ç;.@A|!"öâ?<W @ .@~?A|êRáQÏÅû!"Aÿ¹Ó_Ô/àÜæïVè cWáâ?û8xËzå<R©Vت¨@v{2/å<}zBC 7?ìr6ÿ2kTÔnk?¸' ÓìC~24kE¢?A|!"yzHrÓ¯© =E=Þ|r?Z¤ÅkèzàZتµ}7?| r~åÇ{2/cò!¬Ö"Ø`?¥ndþS³ U«Ï{2/d«ZØTÌÍÓìCÔnk'qnÉhkC2kòkÇÕH-r<èªN?U«Ñ.{2/C~rkN~kQk4: ϺÊrQkC~Öp䷠ȤN¤ç! "Àç¼fú«b<Hr6Ó?7T3ÍÇ=N~Z[C~i=F'N¯èC~?Q kTÉAN~k«¬,2©¦öñÏÚC~4Ø¯Ï ?÷õãFÕIãWC~2%C,2:?ô3,# IãW#µ2 ArcMap10.3 o?¨WýT~3ÓW ýÒÌÜv¤{2/C~2 C~.Þ4k¸vï7 ¹C~%C?÷õA|-WýA|-i;¿N _?4k&N<èö@?A|!"õ= 2C~<á6=@A|!"pN¥ Û?ÉHNÇ;°¢?/&¥èd)®¯1 IYZ[\ 1.1 23;]^ {2/~xzÁ_-6?VäÐ>o=ÁdxØ@~ @@, _^~=Z80°37′39″~83°02′25″E 41°24′08″~42° 38′52″N {2/Øþ-~3×/6Ì/³\abcdGHJ.AnhuiAgric.Sci.2019 47 ): 52-56

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EcologicalRiskAnalysisandPredictionofLandUseinOasisCountyofAridAreaBasedonGISMALina,ZHANGYongfu,ADILAIAdili (KeyLaboratoryofOasisEcology,XinjiangUniversity,Urumqi,Xinjiang830046)Abstract [Objective]Theresearchaimedtostudytheecologicalriskassessmentandpredictionoflanduseintheoasiscountyofaridarea.[Method]TakingBaichengCountyofXinjiangastheresearchobject,underthesupportofArcMap10.3technology,theremotesensingimagesfrom2009and2016astheinformationsource.Thisarticleconstructedthecomprehensiveecologicalriskindex(ERI)ofBaichengCountyandusedthespatialinterpolationmethodofArcGIStoanalysethedynamicevolutionofecologicalriskoflanduseinBaichengCountyandthespatialdifferentiationcharacteristicsofdifferentlevelsofecologicalrisk.ThechangeoflandusestructureinBaichengCountyin2020waspredictedbyMarkovpredictionmodel,andtheecologicalriskinfluenceofthechangeoflandusestructureonoasiscountiesintypicalaridareasofXinjiangwasrevealed.[Result]Theareaofcultivatedlandandconstructionlandwereincreasingfrom2009to2016,theareaofforestland,grassland,waterandotherlandweredecreasingsignificantly.Throughforecasting,comparedwith2016,theareaofconstructionlandandotherlandwereincreasingsignificantlyin2020,whiletheareaofcultivatedland,forestland,grasslandandwaterweredecreasingsignificantly.TheERIofBaichengCountyin2009was0.024,andincreasedto0.029in2016,andwiththecontinuousdeteriorationoftheecologicalenvironment,itwillincreaseto0.031in2020.[Conclusion]Inthefutureadjustmentoflandusestructure,peopleshouldstrengthentheirawarenessofprotectingtheenvironment,buildagoodpatternofecologicallandinBaichengCounty,improvetheecosystemservicefunction,andreducethenegativeimpactofhumanactivitiesontheenvironment.Keywords Landuse;Ecologicalrisk;Aridoasis;BaichengCounty

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Table1 AreaandpercentageofdifferentlandusetypesinBaichengCounty

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Forestland 49254.27 3.10 49099.18 3.10 48983.96 3.08�~

Grassland 718922.77 45.24 718256.91 45.20 684019.36 43.047P2~

Constructionland 8806.42 0.55 12358.80 0.78 23448.66 2.11�6

Water 102786.65 6.47 102083.95 6.43 103878.37 0.87F®2~

Otherland 619443.29 38.98 616913.96 38.82 639145.69 45.26

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2 2009、2016、2020f���I

Table2 LandscapeIndexin2009,2016and2020

¨W

Yearû8%C

Landscapetype

ý·�

Patchesnumbers∥·

Öp

Areahm2

Ci Ni Di Si Fi Ri ERI

2009ª~

12093 89885.13 0.135 0.771 0.165 0.332 0.625 0.207 0.024/~

6679 49254.27 0.136 1.046 0.100 0.401 0.037 0.015�~

10395 718922.77 0.014 0.089 0.145 0.063 0.075 0.0057P2~

6702 8806.42 0.761 5.859 0.100 2.158 0.103 0.222�6

5999 102786.65 0.058 0.475 0.091 0.190 0.219 0.042F®2~

7752 619443.29 0.013 0.090 0.113 0.056 0.273 0.0152016

ª~

18203 90376.73 0.201 0.941 0.217 0.426 0.625 0.267 0.026/~

8482 49099.18 0.173 1.182 0.113 0.464 0.037 0.017�~

10369 718256.91 0.014 0.089 0.134 0.061 0.075 0.0057P2~

6036 12358.80 0.488 3.962 0.085 1.450 0.103 0.149�6

8645 102083.95 0.085 0.574 0.115 0.237 0.219 0.052F®2~

3848 616913.96 0.006 0.063 0.059 0.034 0.273 0.0092020

ª~

22330 89622.49 0.249 1.051 0.238 0.488 0.625 0.305 0.031/~

8456 48983.96 0.173 1.183 0.104 0.462 0.037 0.017�~

2073 684019.36 0.003 0.042 0.035 0.021 0.075 0.0027P2~

5887 23448.66 0.176 1.446 0.078 0.537 0.103 0.055�6

11400 103878.37 0.821 4.849 0.134 1.892 0.219 0.414F®2~

12246 639145.69 0.017 0.097 0.142 0.066 0.273 0.018

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2009、2016T

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p?

3.10%,�"A|�-�Á

45.24%,o:A|�-�Á

38.98%,��A|�-�Á

6.47%,�A|�-�Á

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43.04%,o

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40.22%,��A|�-�Á

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Fig.3 Proportionofdifferentlevelsofecologicalriskzonesin

eachyear

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