ANEXO 5

ASIGNATURA: DIRECCION EMPRESARIAL

Lic. Carlos Sanchez Umanzor

INTEGRANTES:CUENTAEDGAR ROLANDO MATUTE11223125LUIS CARLOS TURCIOS11223150MARVIN GEOVANY FLORES11213300MERY SANDRA SANDOVAL11223035OSCAR ROLANDO MATAMOROS11223114

ANEXO 5MARRIOTT: FRANKFURT Y DUSSELDORFPRONOSTICO DE FLUJO DE CAJA, FRANKFURT(EXPRESADO EN MILES DE DM)

AO Alquiler complementario despues de impuestosAO198919891990199019911991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018TasasTasasTasasSUPOSICIONES Numero de habitaciones9501989456 Das en el ao3651990494 Ocupacin promedio60%64%67%67%67%67%67%67%67%67%67%67%67%67%67%67%67%67%67%67%67%67%67%67%67%67%67%67%67%67%1991502 Tarifa promedio por habitacin (DM)178194.73202.52210.62219.05227.81236.92244.03251.35258.89266.66274.66282.90291.38300.12309.13318.40327.95337.79347.93358.36369.12380.19391.59403.34415.44427.91440.74453.97467.581992652 Cambio porcentual diario promedio--9.4%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%1993679 Gastos generales, de ventas y administrativos30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%1994706 Honorarios de la oficina central de Marriott3%19951027 Tipo Impositivo60%19961058 Pago de alquiler fijo anual10,00019971090 Alquiler complementario al Buren2.0%2.0%2.0%2.5%2.5%2.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%19981123 Factor de ajuste por riesgo de pas0.9919991156 Inversin de capital (DM)288002000119120011227INGRESOS20021264 Habitaciones37,03365.0%43,21570.0%47,05075.0%48,93250,89052,92555,04256,69358,39460,14661,95063,80965,72367,69569,72671,81873,97276,19178,47780,83183,25685,75488,32690,97693,70696,51799,412102,395105,466108,63020031302 Alimentacin y bebidas10,25518.0%9,87816.0%9,41015.0%9,78610,17810,58511,00811,33911,67912,02912,39012,76213,14513,53913,94514,36414,79415,23815,69516,16616,65117,15117,66518,19518,74119,30319,88220,47921,09321,72620041341 Otros9,68617.0%8,64314.0%6,27310.0%6,5246,7857,0577,3397,5597,7868,0198,2608,5088,7639,0269,2979,5759,86310,15910,46310,77711,10111,43411,77712,13012,49412,86913,25513,65214,06214,48420051381qw56,974100.0%61,736100.0%62,733100.0%65,24367,85370,56773,38975,59177,85980,19582,60085,07887,63190,26092,96795,75698,629101,588104,636107,775111,008114,338117,768121,301124,940128,689132,549136,526140,622144,8402006142220071465UTILIDADES POR DEPARTAMENTO20081509 Habitaciones25,55369.0%31,54773.0%37,17079.0%38,65740,20341,81143,48444,78846,13247,51648,94150,40951,92253,47955,08456,73658,43860,19261,99763,85765,77367,74669,77871,87274,02876,24978,53680,89283,31985,81920091554 Alimentacin y bebidas1,12811.0%1,28413.0%1,55316.5%1,6151,6801,7471,8171,8711,9271,9852,0452,1062,1692,2342,3012,3702,4422,5152,5902,6682,7482,8312,9153,0033,0933,1863,2813,3803,4813,58620101601 Otros2,22823.0%2,07424.0%1,50624.0%1,5661,6291,6941,7621,8151,8691,9251,9832,0422,1042,1672,2322,2992,3682,4392,5122,5872,6652,7452,8272,9122,9993,0893,1823,2783,3763,47720111649Utilidades Departamentales Totales28,90950.7%34,90556.5%40,22964.1%41,83843,51245,25247,06248,47449,92851,42652,96954,55856,19557,88159,61761,40663,24865,14567,10069,11371,18673,32275,52177,78780,12082,52485,00087,55090,17692,8822012169820131749GASTOS ADMINISTRATIVOS20141802 Gastos generales, de ventas y administrativos17,09230.0%18,52130.0%18,82030.0%19,57320,35621,17022,01722,67723,35824,05824,78025,52426,28927,07827,89028,72729,58930,47631,39132,33233,30234,30135,33136,39037,48238,60739,76540,95842,18643,45220151856 Oficina central de Marriott1,7093.0%1,8523.0%1,8823.0%1,9572,0362,1172,2022,2682,3362,4062,4782,5522,6292,7082,7892,8732,9593,0483,1393,2333,3303,4303,5333,6393,7483,8613,9764,0964,2194,34520161911Otros gastos totales18,80133.0%20,37333.0%20,70233.0%21,53022,39123,28724,21824,94525,69326,46427,25828,07628,91829,78630,67931,60032,54833,52434,53035,56636,63337,73238,86440,02941,23042,46743,74145,05446,40547,79720171969Ganancias antes de intereses, alquileres e impuestos10,10817.7%14,53223.5%19,52731.1%20,30821,12021,96522,84423,52924,23524,96225,71126,48227,27728,09528,93829,80630,70031,62132,57033,54734,55335,59036,65837,75738,89040,05741,25842,49643,77145,08420182028

Gastos de impuestos6,06560.0%8,71960.0%11,71660.0%12,18512,67213,17913,70614,11714,54114,97715,42715,88916,36616,85717,36317,88418,42018,97319,54220,12820,73221,35421,99522,65423,33424,03424,75525,49826,26327,051Ganancias antes de intereses, alquileres y despues de impuestos4,0437.1%5,8139.4%7,81112.5%8,1238,4488,7869,1389,4129,6949,98510,28410,59310,91111,23811,57511,92212,28012,64813,02813,41913,82114,23614,66315,10315,55616,02316,50316,99817,50818,034

Depreciacin1,4002.5%18002.9%17002.7%170022002100195019301920190019001900190019001900190019001900190019001900190019001900190019001900190019001900Gastos de capital1,2502.2%17002.8%18002.9%190022002000200020002000200020002000200020002000200020002000200020002000200020002000200020002000200020002000Utilidad interna neta despues de impuestos o flujo de caja neto antes de gastos de alquiler4,1935,9137,7117,9238,4488,8869,0889,3429,6149,88510,18410,49310,81111,13811,47511,82212,18012,54812,92813,31913,72114,13614,56315,00315,45615,92316,40316,89817,40817,934

GASTOS DE ALQUILER Alquiler mnimo10,00017.6%10,00016.2%10,00015.9%10,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,00010,000 Alquiler mnimo despues de impuestos4,0007.0%4,0006.5%4,0006.4%4,0004,0004,0004,0004,0004,0004,0004,0004,0004,0004,0004,0004,0004,0004,0004,0004,0004,0004,0004,0004,0004,0004,0004,0004,0004,0004,000 Alquiler complementario1,1392.0%1,2352.0%1,2552.0%1,6311,6961,7642,5692,6462,7252,8072,8912,9783,0673,1593,2543,3513,4523,5563,6623,7723,8854,0024,1224,2464,3734,5044,6394,7784,9225,069 Alquiler complementario despues de impuestos4560.8%4940.8%5020.8%6526797061,0271,0581,0901,1231,1561,1911,2271,2641,3021,3411,3811,4221,4651,5091,5541,6011,6491,6981,7491,8021,8561,9111,9692,028

Anexo 6ANEXO 6MARRIOTT: FRANKFURT Y DUSSELDORFPRONOSTICO DEL FLUJO DE CAJA, DUSSELDORF(EN MILES DE DM)

AO1989Tasas1990Tasas1991Tasas19921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008SUPOSICIONES Numero de habitaciones200 Das en el ao365 Ocupacin promedio65%67%68%68%68%68%68%68%68%68%68%68%68%68%68%68%68%68%68%68% Tarifa promedio por habitacin (DM)130134.55139.26143.44147.74151.43155.22159.10162.28165.53168.84171.37173.94176.55178.32180.10181.90183.72185.56187.41 Cambio porcentual diario promedio--3.5%3.5%3.0%3.0%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.0%2.0%2.0%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0% Gastos generales, de ventas y administrativos30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30% Honorarios de la oficina central de Marriott3% Tipo Impositivo60% Pago de alquiler fijo anual1,000 Factor de ajuste por riesgo de pas0.99

INGRESOS Habitaciones6,16954.5%6,58157.0%6,91360.0%7,1207,3347,5177,7057,8988,0568,2178,3818,5078,6348,7648,8528,9409,0309,1209,2119,303 Alimentacin y bebidas4,59840.6%4,61840.0%4,37838.0%4,5094,6454,7614,8805,0025,1025,2045,3085,3885,4695,5515,6065,6625,7195,7765,8345,892 Otros5615.0%3463.0%2302.0%237244250256263268273279283287292294297300303306310Ingreso total11,328100.0%11,545100.0%11,521100.0%11,86712,22312,52812,84113,16213,42613,69413,96814,17814,39014,60614,75214,90015,04915,19915,35115,505

UTILIDADES DEPARTAMENTALES Habitaciones3,88663.0%4,21264.0%4,42465.0%4,6284,7674,8865,0085,1345,2365,3415,4485,5295,6125,6975,7545,8115,8695,9285,9876,047 Alimentacin y bebidas46010.0%53111.5%50311.5%518534547561575586598610619628638644651657664670677 Otros9016.0%5917.1%4117.8%4243454647484950505152525354545555Total de Utilidades Departamentales4,43639.2%4,80241.6%4,96843.1%5,1885,3445,4785,6155,7555,8705,9886,1076,1996,2926,3866,4506,5156,5806,6466,7126,779

GASTOS ADMINISTRATIVOS Ventas, generales y administrativos3,39830.0%3,46430.0%3,45630.0%3,5603,6673,7583,8523,9494,0284,1084,1904,2534,3174,3824,4264,4704,5154,5604,6054,651 Honorarios de oficina central de Marriott3403.0%3463.0%3463.0%356367376385395403411419425432438443447451456461465Total otros gastos3,73833.0%3,81033.0%3,80233.0%3,9164,0334,1344,2384,3444,4304,5194,6094,6794,7494,8204,8684,9174,9665,0165,0665,117Ingreso antes de gastos de alquiler, intereses e impuestos6986.2%9928.6%1,16610.1%1,2721,3111,3431,3771,4111,4401,4681,4981,5201,5431,5661,5821,5981,6141,6301,6461,663

Gastos de impuestos41960.0%59560.0%70060.0%763786806826847864881899912926940949959968978988998Ingreso antes de gastos de alquiler e intereses y despues de gastos de impuestos2792.5%3973.4%4664.0%509524537551565576587599608617627633639645652658665

Depreciacin3202.8%3603.1%4704.1%520530530530530530530530530530530530530530530530530Gastos de capital4403.9%5304.6%5504.8%580580580580580580580580580580580580580580580580580Utilidad interna neta despues de impuestos o flujo de caja neto antes de gastos de alquiler159.17227386449474487501515526537549558567577583589595602608615

Alquiler de terreno1,0008.8%1,0008.7%1,0008.7%1,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,000 Alquiler de terreno despues de impuestos4003.5%4003.5%4003.5%400400400400400400400400400400400400400400400400400Refugio tributario para el alquiler del terreno600600600600600600600600600600600600600600600600600600600600

FLUJO NETO

Anexo 7ANEXO 7MARRIOTT: FRANKFURT Y DUSSELDORFDATOS DEL MERCADO FINANCIERO Y CAMBIARIO

Datos del Mercado FinancieroTasas a futuro (por US$)Precio30 das a futuro1.871790 das a futuro1.8615180 das a futuro1.8468

Beta de Marriott: 1.1

AOINFLACION DE ESTADOS UNIDOSINFLACION DE ALEMANIATIPO DE CAMBIO (DM/$)19853.50%2.20%2.9419862.00%-0.20%2.1719873.00%0.20%1.8019883.50%1.50%1.7719894.30%2.20%1.7319904.30%2.20%1.6919914.80%2.20%1.6519924.80%2.20%1.6119934.80%2.20%1.5719944.80%2.20%1.5319954.80%2.20%1.4919964.80%2.20%1.4519974.80%2.20%1.4219984.80%2.20%1.3819994.80%2.20%1.3520004.80%2.20%1.3220014.80%2.20%1.2820024.80%2.20%1.2520034.80%2.20%1.2220044.80%2.20%1.1920054.80%2.20%1.1620064.80%2.20%1.1320074.80%2.20%1.1020084.80%2.20%1.0820094.80%2.20%1.0520104.80%2.20%1.0220114.80%2.20%1.0020124.80%2.20%0.9720134.80%2.20%0.9520144.80%2.20%0.9320154.80%2.20%0.9020164.80%2.20%0.8820174.80%2.20%0.8620184.80%2.20%0.84

Anexo 8ANEXO 8MARRIOTT: FRANKFURT Y DUSSELDORFRESUMEN DE ANALISIS DE FLUJO DE CAJA DESCONTADO(EN MILES DE US$)

HOTEL DE FRANKFURTHOTEL DE DUSSELDORFAoTipo de cambioFactor de Riesgo de PaisFlujo de Caja Neto antes de AlquilerAlquiler MnimoAlquiler ComplementarioInversin de CapitalFlujo de Caja Neto antes de AlquilerPago de Alquiler19881.7700016,27119891.730.992,3992,2892619122919901.690.993,4642,34328913323419911.650.994,6262,40030123224019921.610.994,8722,46040127624619931.570.995,3272,52242829925219941.530.995,7502,58845731525919951.490.996,0382,65868333326619961.450.996,3782,73172335127319971.420.996,7032,78976036727919981.380.997,0912,87080538628719991.350.997,4692,93384840329320001.320.997,8703,00089341930020011.280.998,3613,09494943930920021.250.998,8213,1681,00145731720031.220.999,3123,2461,05647332520041.190.999,8353,3281,11549033320051.160.9910,3953,4141,17850834120061.130.9910,9943,5041,24652735020071.100.9911,6353,6001,31854836020081.080.9912,2093,6671,38356436720091.050.9912,9373,7711,46520101.020.9913,7203,8821,55420111.000.9914,4173,9601,63220120.970.9915,3124,0821,73320130.950.9916,1074,1681,82320140.930.9916,9504,2581,91820150.900.9918,0444,4002,04120160.880.9919,0114,5002,15020170.860.9920,0404,6052,26620180.840.9921,1364,7142,390

Tasas de descuento11.0%6.5%8.0%0.0%11.0%6.5%Valor Presente Neto59,462(39,185)(9,083)(16,271)2,449(3,066)

Ambos hotelesUnicamente FrankfurtUnicamente DusseldorfVPN NETO ($)(5,694)(5,077)(617)