ASSESSORIA DE IMPRENSA DO GABINETEResumo da Seleção de Notícias Internacionais

Segunda-feira, 3 de agosto de 2009

COLÔMBIA – VENEZUELA / UNASUL_______________________________________________3Argentina - Clarín_____________________________________________________________________3

Brasil, contra las bases de EE.UU. en Colombia_____________________________________________________3

Argentina - La Nación__________________________________________________________________3Primeros roces entre Brasil y EE.UU._____________________________________________________________3

Rússia - ITAR-TASS___________________________________________________________________5Ministro Exteriores brasileño: ampliación presencia militar EE.UU._____________________________________5

Paraguai - ABC Color__________________________________________________________________6Piden aclarar acuerdo militar con los EE.UU._______________________________________________________6

Colômbia - El Tiempo__________________________________________________________________6'Nos preocupa una presencia militar fuerte de Estados Unidos', afirmó canciller de Brasil____________________6

Itália - Agência AnsaLatina_____________________________________________________________8Acordo entre Colômbia e EUA será discutido na Unasul, diz Chávez____________________________________8

HONDURAS____________________________________________________________________9Espanha - El País______________________________________________________________________9

Honduras afirma que "resiste con orgullo el aislamiento_______________________________________________9

México - Reforma____________________________________________________________________10Alista Zelaya viaje a México___________________________________________________________________10

IRÃ___________________________________________________________________________11Reino Unido - The Times______________________________________________________________11

Nuclear progress in Iran has dire consequences if diplomacy fails______________________________________11

Reino Unido - Agência BBC____________________________________________________________12Iran poll critics shun ceremony__________________________________________________________________12

França - Le Monde___________________________________________________________________14Iran : l'élection d'Ahmadinejad officiellement confirmée par le guide suprême____________________________14

EUA - The Washington Post____________________________________________________________14Ahmadinejad Endorsed; Americans Called Spies___________________________________________________14

Reino Unido - The Guardian___________________________________________________________16Iran supreme leader endorses Ahmadinejad second term______________________________________________16

TEMAS POLÍTICOS_____________________________________________________________17Reino Unido - The Guardian___________________________________________________________17

We'll talk with US but Cuba stays socialist, insists Raúl Castro________________________________________17

França - International Herald Tribune___________________________________________________18Georgia Says Russia Is Trying to Seize More Land__________________________________________________18

TEMAS ECONÔMICOS E COMERCIAIS___________________________________________20China - People's Daily Online___________________________________________________________20

China to cement partnership with Latin America: Ambassador_________________________________________20

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Reino Unido - The Independent_________________________________________________________22Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast_________________________________________________________22

Portugal - Agência Lusa_______________________________________________________________25Fórum econômico antecede visita de Hillary Clinton à África_________________________________________25

MEIO AMBIENTE______________________________________________________________26Reino Unido - Agência BBC____________________________________________________________26

Deforestation is 'key climate issue'_______________________________________________________________26

Reino Unido - UTV___________________________________________________________________29Miliband delivers message to forest tribes deep in the Amazon________________________________________29

OUTROS TEMAS_______________________________________________________________29Reino Unido - The Sunday Telegraph____________________________________________________29

Brazil fraud accused 'unlikely to go to jail'________________________________________________________29

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COLÔMBIA – VENEZUELA / UNASUL

Argentina - ClarínBrasil, contra las bases de EE.UU. en Colombia

El canciller brasileño, Celso Amorim, exigió a Bogotá "garantías formales" sobre el nuevo acuerdo militar con Estados Unidos y dijo que Brasil teme que el aumento de la presencia norteamericana "pueda ir mucho más allá" de las necesidades de Colombia y expandirse por la región.

Amorim dijo comprender las "preocupaciones" de Venezuela con el acuerdo militar que negocian EE.UU. y Colombia, rechazado también por Brasil, Chile y España, que incluye la presencia estadounidense en tres bases aéreas colombianas."Lo que a Brasil le preocupa es una presencia militar fuerte, cuyo objetivo y capacidad parecen ir mucho más allá de lo que pueda ser la necesidad interna de Colombia", dijo el canciller en una entrevista con el diario Folha de Sao Paulo. Agregó que "en la región es importante tener transparencia y claridad, algo que tal vez faltó. Por ejemplo podemos tener garantías formales sobre cómo las bases serán usadas".

Los gobiernos de Alvaro Uribe y Barack Obama negocian un acuerdo para aumentar hasta 800 militares y 600 civiles de EE.UU. la ocupación de tres bases aéreas en el oriente colombiano, cerca de la frontera con Venezuela. Este fue uno de los motivos de la nueva crisis entre Bogotá y Caracas, además de la acusación de Colombia sobre las armas que Venezuela compró a Suecia y llegaron a las FARC. "Comprendo la preocupación de Venezuela. Dice que es el blanco principal de este acuerdo y hay informes del Congreso estadounidense diciendo que Venezuela es débil frente al narcotráfico. Y ponen bases en un país vecino a Venezuela", afirmó Amorim.  Argentina - La NaciónPrimeros roces entre Brasil y EE.UU.

El canciller Celso Amorim cuestionó la decisión del gobierno de Obama de usar bases colombianas; pidió "garantías formales"

BRASILIA.- Tras varios meses de "luna de miel" diplomática, durante los cuales Brasil y Estados Unidos inauguraron una relación privilegiada, el gobierno de Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva está mostrando las primeras señales de malestar con Estados Unidos

por las intenciones de la Casa Blanca de utilizar bases militares de Colombia en su lucha contra el narcotráfico.

Según manifestó el canciller Celso Amorim en una entrevista publicada ayer en el diario Folha de S. Paulo, Brasil está "preocupado" por la intención de Estados Unidos de ampliar su contingente militar y civil en América latina en tres bases militares colombianas hasta 2019.

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"Lo que preocupa a Brasil es una presencia militar fuerte, cuyo objetivo y capacidad parecen ir mucho más allá de lo que pueda ser la necesidad interna de Colombia", señaló Amorim, y exigió "garantías formales" de Estados Unidos.

Según el canciller, la polémica por las bases en Colombia se asemeja a lo ocurrido el año pasado, cuando el gobierno de George W. Bush decidió reactivar la IV Flota en el Atlántico Sur a pesar de la resistencia de muchos países en la región.

El gobierno de Obama está negociando con el presidente colombiano, Alvaro Uribe, un acuerdo para aumentar la presencia de militares y civiles norteamericanos en por lo menos tres bases aéreas.

El acuerdo disparó una nueva crisis diplomática entre Colombia y Venezuela, que la semana pasada retiró a su embajador en Bogotá, y provocó críticas de otros países de la región.

Amorim consideró "comprensible" la preocupación de Venezuela por el acuerdo, porque Estados Unidos alega que el blanco principal de las bases es el narcotráfico, y al mismo tiempo dice que "hay informes del Congreso estadounidense que dicen que Venezuela estaría siendo connivente con el narcotráfico".

El canciller justificó la posición venezolana citando una frase de un ilustre humorista, escritor y dramaturgo carioca, Millor Fernandes: "El hecho de que yo sea paranoico no significa que no esté siendo perseguido".

También dijo que una de las preguntas que se hace Brasil es la contradicción en la que entra Bogotá al decir, por un lado, que las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), supuestamente vinculadas con el narcotráfico, están aniquiladas, y, por otro, justificar una presencia militar más fuerte en su país para combatirla.

El canciller dijo que Brasil prefiere no juzgar por ahora si las acciones del gobierno de Obama se contradicen con el discurso de paz, no injerencia y desmilitarización que expuso en su campaña electoral.

"En lugar de hacer un juicio de valor, vamos a conversar, escuchar explicaciones y entender mejor. Pero en la región es importante tener transparencia y claridad. Eso tal vez haya faltado. Uno puede tener, por ejemplo, garantías formales sobre cómo esas bases serán usadas", explicó Amorim.

En ese contexto, hoy llegará a Brasilia el consejero de Seguridad Nacional de Obama, Jim Jones, con la misión de explicarle a Lula los detalles del acuerdo con Colombia.

Las negociaciones entre los gobiernos de Obama y Uribe ya habían sido criticadas la semana pasada por Lula, así como también por los gobiernos de Chile, Venezuela, Ecuador y España.

En su columna dominical, el presidente venezolano, Hugo Chávez, consideró ayer que Colombia será la "base de operaciones" de Estados Unidos en América latina. "¿A quién pretende hacerle creer el presidente Uribe y la oligarquía colombiana que el incremento de

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la presencia militar yanqui, a través de estas nuevas bases, no significa una amenaza directa contra Venezuela?", se preguntó el mandatario.

Chávez también anticipó que el acuerdo militar será el tema excluyente de la próxima cumbre de la Unasur, que tendrá lugar el lunes próximo en Ecuador.

En tanto, el ministro de Defensa de Ecuador, Javier Ponce, sostuvo ayer que el gobierno de Uribe "representa un proyecto político que es amenazante para la región".Otros frentes

Lula, cuyo gobierno fue considerado por Obama un "ejemplo" para toda la región, también hizo saber sus discrepancias con Washington en otros dos temas cruciales, como la Ronda de Doha y el etanol. Amorim se manifestó "escéptico" respecto de la conclusión exitosa de la Ronda Doha de la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC), que busca liberalizar el comercio mundial.

En su opinión, Estados Unidos, "país que tiene la clave para que Doha concluya rápidamente, continúa con demandas para los países en desarrollo totalmente incompatibles con lo que concede".

Amorim dijo que el gobierno de Obama no sólo no cambió en nada su posición en relación con su antecesor, George W. Bush, sino que ni siquiera deja en claro si tiene interés en que Doha concluya con éxito.

Además, se refirió a las tarifas que Estados Unidos aplica a la importación del etanol brasileño, y dijo que a Brasil "no le pareció bien" que después de que Obama manifestara su interés en revisar esas tarifas bastara la resistencia de un senador para que retrocediera.

Agencias ANSA, DPA y EFE

Rússia - ITAR-TASSMinistro Exteriores brasileño: ampliación presencia militar EE.UU.

Río de Janeiro, (ITAR-TASS). La decisión de Colombia de poner a disposición de efectivos estadounidenses nuevas bases militares crea una “situación nueva” en la región y requiere explicaciones.

Así señala, en una entrevista que pública hoy el periódico Folha de Sao Paulo, el ministro de Exteriores brasileño, Celso Amorim.

“Colombia es un país soberano y tiene derecho a hacer lo que quiera en su territorio, pero se trata de una presencia militar importante en el vecindario”, señala el Ministro, evocando que las “bases están habilitadas para el estacionamiento de aviones de gran radio de acción”.

“A Brasil le preocupa una presencia militar fuerte, cuyo objetivo y capacidad parecen ir mucho más allá de lo que pueda ser la necesidad interna de Colombia” -dijo Amorim.- En la región es importante tener transparencia y claridad, y tal vez, eso ha faltado”.

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Las autoridades colombianas declaran constantemente que la misión de tropas norteamericanas que se encuentran en el país es luchar contra la narcomafia y las guerrillas involucradas en la producción de cocaína y heroína.

Pero países latinoamericanos en que están en el gobierno movimientos de izquierda radicales, como Bolivia, Venezuela, Nicaragua y Ecuador, están convencidos en que la unión militar de EE.UU. y Colombia está dirigida contra ellos.   Paraguai - ABC ColorPiden aclarar acuerdo militar con los EE.UU.

SAN PABLO (ANSA). El canciller brasileño Celso Amorim exigió a Colombia presentar “garantías formales” sobre el nuevo acuerdo militar con Estados Unidos y advirtió que Brasil teme que el aumento de la presencia norteamericana en el país vecino “pueda ir mucho más allá” de las necesidades internas de Bogotá y expandirse por la región.

Amorim dijo comprender las “preocupaciones” de Venezuela con el acuerdo militar que negocian EE.UU. y Colombia, ya rechazado por Brasil, Chile y España, que incluye la presencia estadounidense en tres bases colombianas.

“Lo que a Brasil le preocupa es una presencia militar fuerte, cuyo objetivo y capacidad parecen ir mucho más allá de lo que pueda ser la necesidad interna de Colombia”, dijo Amorim en una entrevista.

Agregó que “en la región es importante tener transparencia y claridad, algo que tal vez faltó. Por ejemplo, podemos tener garantías formales sobre cómo las bases serán usadas”.  

Colômbia - El Tiempo'Nos preocupa una presencia militar fuerte de Estados Unidos', afirmó canciller de Brasil

Celso Amorim dijo que los misiles suecos son 'un episodio de un tamaño pequeñito en comparación con las bases', pidió que el acuerdo sea 'mejor explicado' y sugirió 'garantías formales' a vecinos.

Brasil profundizó sus cuestionamientos a una mayor presencia militar de Estados Unidos en Colombia y restó importancia al hallazgo de misiles de fabricación sueca -y originalmente vendidos al ejército venezolano- en poder de las Farc.

En entrevista con el diario brasileño Folha de São Paulo,el canciller de ese país, Celso Amorim, aseguró que el acuerdo entre E.U. y Colombia deber ser "mejor explicado", pues amplía la presencia de tropas ajenas a la región y crea una "situación nueva".

Amorim afirmó que si bien Colombia "es un país soberano y tiene derecho a hacer lo que quiera en su territorio, se trata de una presencia militar importante en el vecindario".

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El presidente Álvaro Uribe ha explicado que el acuerdo permitirá fortalecer la lucha contra el narcotráfico, el terrorismo y él tráfico de armas, y que en ningún momento esta ampliación de la cooperación militar supone una amenaza para los vecinos.

Sin embargo, según Amorim, son necesarias "más explicaciones", pues "en la región es importante tener transparencia y claridad, y tal vez eso ha faltado".

El canciller indicó, a modo de ejemplo, que los países vecinos de Colombia podrían "tener garantías formales sobre cómo esas bases serán usadas".

También dijo que "comprende las preocupaciones" del presidente venezolano, Hugo Chávez, ya que "se dice que el blanco (de la cooperación entre E.U. y Colombia) es el narcotráfico, pero al mismo tiempo hay informes en el Congreso de E.U. diciendo que Venezuela sería complaciente con el narcotráfico".

El ministro citó una frase del escritor brasileño Millor Fernandes para explicar y justificar la posición de Chávez en este conflicto: "El hecho de que yo sea paranoico no significa que no sea perseguido", dijo.

Amorim manifestó que la mayor presencia de E.U. en Colombia, mediante el uso de cuatro bases aéreas, se asemeja a lo ocurrido el año pasado, cuando el Gobierno de Estados Unidos decidió reactivar su IV Flota en el Atlántico Sur.

"En su momento (en Estados Unidos) reconocieron que hubo errores de comunicación", pues "las justificaciones que dieron fueron todas muy inocentes", como decir que era para "ayuda humanitaria al Caribe", dijo.

En el caso particular de Brasil, Amorim subrayó que "preocupa una presencia militar fuerte, cuyo objetivo y capacidad parecen ir mucho más allá de lo que pueda ser la necesidad interna de Colombia".

Y luego le quitó 'hierro' a las fricciones surgidas entre Colombia y Venezuela tras el hallazgo de cohetes suecos en manos de las Farc.

"No sabemos cuándo ocurrió ni si ocurrió y, si ocurrió, si fue antes o después de Chávez", y tampoco se sabe "si fueron robadas", indicó el canciller, para quien ese asunto "es sólo un episodio".

Según Amorim, "muchas armas le llegan a las Farc, así como llegan a las favelas de Río de Janeiro", y para él, esa denuncia no supone más que "un episodio de un tamaño pequeñito en comparación con las bases militares" de Estados Unidos. La Cancillería colombiana no se pronunció ayer al respecto.

Reacciones de Chile a Nueva York

El vicepresidente, Francisco Santos, dijo al diario chileno 'La Tercera' que el caso de los cohetes antitanque suecos hallados a las Farc es "un aviso muy importante a la comunidad internacional para que no se deje sorprender por nuevas compras de armamento por parte de Venezuela". Y añadió que las Farc están tras misiles tierra-aire.

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El diario The New York Times publicó que a pesar de las negativas del presidente Chávez, hay noticias de ayuda en "armas y documentos" de parte de oficiales venezolanos a las Farc, según información computarizada capturada a esa guerrilla y actualmente analizada por "agencias de inteligencia occidentales".

Evo Morales, presidente de Bolivia, afirmó que el video del 'Mono Jojoy' prueba que hay un "montaje para desprestigiar a presidentes revolucionarios" de la región.

BRASILIA (Efe)

Itália - Agência AnsaLatinaAcordo entre Colômbia e EUA será discutido na Unasul, diz Chávez

CARACAS, 2 AGO (ANSA) - O presidente da Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, disse hoje que o tema da instalação de bases norte-americanas na Colômbia será analisado na próxima reunião da União das Nações Sul-Americanas (Unasul), prevista para o próximo dia 10."É evidente que este será um tema central na próxima reunião da Unasul", disse o governante em seu artigo dominical "As Linhas de Chávez".

O mandatário comentou também que já falou "com vários chefes de Estado de nosso continente, a fim de alertá-los sobre o perigo representado pelas novas bases militares gringas para a Venezuela".

Ele também voltou a atacar os planos da Colômbia, de levar tropas norte-americanas às suas bases locais, o que definiu como uma estratégia de Washington contra o seu governo e contra a região."A Colômbia é, lamentavelmente, a cabeceira da praia da estratégia de contenção ianque na América do Sul e também sua base de operações", continuou Chávez que advertiu ainda que "estas novas bases militares constituem um perigo real e concreto contra a soberania e a estabilidade da região sul-americana. São as pontas da lança da nova colonização".

No texto, ele também reiterou o congelamento das relações comerciais e diplomáticas com a Colômbia em resposta a uma "linha de agressão" contra o seu governo.

Na última semana, Chávez anunciou o estancamento das relações e retirou do país vizinho o seu embaixador Gustavo Márquez. A decisão foi tomada após denúncias de autoridades colombianas de que armamentos apreendidos com as Forças Armadas Revolucionárias da Colômbia (Farc) teriam origens na Venezuela.

A próxima reunião da Unasul acontecerá em Quito, Equador, no próximo dia 10. Na última sexta-feira, a imprensa colombiana noticiou que o presidente do país, Álvaro Uribe, não irá ao encontro. (ANSA)  

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HONDURAS

Espanha - El PaísHonduras afirma que "resiste con orgullo el aislamiento

Zelaya promete no volver a presentarse a las elecciones

CARLOS SALINAS - Managua

"No es posible que nadie, por muy poderoso que sea, venga a indicarnos lo que tenemos que hacer o venga a humillarnos", declaró el presidente de hecho de Honduras, Roberto Micheletti. En un intento por mostrar firmeza, dijo que su país "resiste con orgullo el aislamiento".

"No es posible que nadie, por muy poderoso que sea, venga a indicarnos lo que tenemos que hacer o venga a humillarnos", declaró el presidente de hecho de Honduras, Roberto Micheletti. En un intento por mostrar firmeza, dijo que su país "resiste con orgullo el aislamiento".

Micheletti criticó de nuevo la postura de EE UU de reconocer como único gobernante del país centroamericano al mandatario depuesto Manuel Zelaya. También anunció que estudia revocar los visados de diplomáticos estadounidenses acreditados en Tegucigalpa, en respuesta a la decisión de Washington de cancelar los de cuatro altos funcionarios del Gobierno de hecho de Honduras.

La situación no es nada fácil para la segunda economía más pobre de América Latina, después de Haití. El Banco Centroamericano de Integración Económica, principal organismo financiero regional, estudia cancelar los préstamos a Honduras. Entre ellos, un desembolso pendiente por 20 millones de dólares (14 millones de euros) y otro en negociación de 400 millones de dólares, que serían invertidos en la construcción de una hidroeléctrica y en la modernización de puertos. Además, la crisis política ha golpeado al sector turístico. En plena temporada alta de llegada de turistas estadounidenses y europeos, la ocupación hotelera ha descendido hasta un 70%.

La situación es tan crítica, que la presidenta de la Asociación Hotelera de Honduras, Luz Mejía, dijo que varios empresarios estudian cerrar sus negocios, porque los ingresos son insuficientes para pagar salarios y gastos. Al descenso contribuye la tensión que se registra en las calles de Tegucigalpa y otras ciudades tras el golpe de Estado del 28 de junio.

Entre el viernes y el sábado la policía arrestó a más de cien simpatizantes de Zelaya que protestaban contra el Gobierno de hecho. Además, se registró la segunda víctima mortal al fallecer el profesor herido el jueves en una manifestación. El domingo el Centro Carter manifestó su "profunda preocupación" por el recrudecimiento de la violencia. En un comunicado, afirmó que la única salida a la crisis pasa por las negociaciones en el marco del Acuerdo de San José, auspiciado por el presidente de Costa Rica y premio Nobel de la Paz, Óscar Arias.

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Consciente de la compleja situación, Micheletti se mostró dispuesto a un diálogo. Ayer afirmó que si bien Arias "ha hecho algunos actos que son de intromisión" en los asuntos de Honduras, las negociaciones que impulsa son "esperanzadoras". "Seguimos creyendo que él es un hombre correcto y justo, que actúa con imparcialidad", dijo Micheletti de Arias, al que agradeció el envío a Honduras esta semana de una misión especial para buscar una salida negociada. Hoy, en San José, está prevista una reunión entre Arias y la vicepresidenta del Gobierno español, María Teresa Fernández de la Vega, para analizar la crisis.

Mientras, Manuel Zelaya regresó a Ocotal, en la zona fronteriza entre Nicaragua y Honduras, donde sigue preparando sus "milicias pacíficas". El mandatario depuesto aseguró que está dispuesto a regresar de forma pacífica al poder y a no participar en las elecciones generales previstas para noviembre.

México - ReformaAlista Zelaya viaje a México

El Secretario General para Iberoamérica, Enrique V. Iglesias, viajó ayer a Costa Rica para analizar la crisis hondureñaPor AgenciasOcotal- El depuesto Presidente de Honduras,Manuel Zelaya, abandonó ayer de manera repentina la ciudad fronteriza de Ocotal para preparar en Managua su próximo viaje a México, previsto para mañana.

En el País, Zelaya se reunirá con el Mandatario Felipe Calderón para analizar la reactivación de la mediación que encabeza el dirigente de Costa Rica, Óscar Arias, con el propósito de revertir el golpe de Estado que lo sacó del poder el pasado 28 de junio.

Mientras tanto, el Secretario General para Iberoamérica, Enrique V. Iglesias, viajó ayer a Costa Rica acompañado de la vicepresidenta del Gobierno español, María Teresa Fernández de la Vega, para analizar la crisis hondureña.

Iglesias, quien se reunirá hoy con el Presidente Arias, fue propuesto como posible mediador del conflicto por el Gobierno de facto Hondureño que preside Roberto Micheletti.

A la reunión en San José asistirá también el Secretario General de la Organización de Estados Americanos (OEA), José Miguel Insulza, informaron fuentes diplomáticas costarricenses.

En Estados Unidos, el Presidente Barack Obama afirmó que desea que la crisis política en Honduras se solucione de tal manera que Zelaya pueda terminar su periodo, aunque consideró que los recientes cruces fronterizos del Mandatario derrocado no ayudaban a superar el problema.

"Queremos que esta situación se solucione de forma que el Presidente Zelaya pueda volver, concluir su periodo y que haya elecciones legales que sean reconocidas, que sean congruentes con la Constitución", dijo Obama en una entrevista con la cadena Univisión difundida ayer.

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"Debe haber alguna manera de solucionar esto de forma que no genere violencia, pero tampoco un mal precedente".

España, por su parte, afirmó ayer que su país no avalará unos comicios en Honduras que se realicen bajo la Administración interina de Micheletti.

"Es indudable que, si se celebran elecciones con un Gobierno de facto, y sin garantías internacionales, no lo podemos avalar", señaló el Canciller español, Miguel Ángel Moratinos, al ser interrogado sobre si el Gobierno del Presidente José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero reconocerá a la Administración que surja de las elecciones de noviembre en Honduras.

  IRÃ

Reino Unido - The TimesNuclear progress in Iran has dire consequences if diplomacy fails

Richard Beeston: analysis

For the past two months the world has watched as political turmoil has deepened in Iran after the contested presidential election results that returned Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to a controversial second term.

Now those problems threaten to grip not just Iran but the wider Middle East and beyond.

We know from intelligence estimates that Iran is nearing the point when it can produce its first nuclear warhead and the means to deliver it. That moment is likely to come under the leadership of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, and Mr Ahmadinejad, who will be inaugurated this month for another four-year term.

These are men who have demonstrated that they intend to hold on to power by whatever means necessary. They are also responsible for accelerating the nuclear programme and taking a hardline position against the West, in spite of repeated peace overtures made by President Barack Obama this year.

Washington has given Tehran until September to respond to an offer of dialogue. The hope is that diplomacy can bring Iran back from the brink. The test will be whether it is prepared to abide by international safeguards. These would allow it to build a legitimate civilian nuclear programme, which it is doing with Russian help at Bushehr. But it would mean stricter supervision of its more suspect facilities at Natanz and Arak.

If Iran chooses not to engage with Washington and rejects a negotiated deal on its nuclear facilities then America, Britain and France will press for harsher United Nations sanctions against Tehran. These will take effect only if Russia and China, who hold the right of veto at the UN Security Council, drop objections to tighter economic measures.

At this point the future looks bleak. If diplomatic efforts fail and if Iran presses ahead with its ambitions, then the Middle East may be headed for the most serious conflict in decades. Israel’s policy is that it prefers a diplomatic settlement but that “all options remain on the

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table”. By that it means using force to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, probably with air and missile strikes. Iran would be likely to respond and within days the region would threaten to become embroiled in a terrible war.

Many doubt that Israel would be prepared to take such a dangerous step, particularly since experts believe that Iran has the ability to rebuild the key uranium enrichment site within two to three years.

Who runs Iran in the coming months and years is not just a matter for Iranians. This is now a global issue.

Reino Unido - Agência BBC Iran poll critics shun ceremony

Senior Iranian political figures appear to have snubbed the formal endorsement of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Influential former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was among those not at Monday's ceremony, state TV said.

Another former president, Mohammad Khatami, was also absent, as were defeated election candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

Mr Ahmadinejad won a June election but allegations of fraud sparked protests.

Thousands of Iranians took to the streets in the largest mass demonstrations in Iran since the 1979 revolution, which brought about the current Islamic system of government.

Public protests have ebbed since in the face of a strong police and militia presence on the streets, but the country's political elite has been been in open disagreement about how to move forward.

Mr Ahmadinejad will be inaugurated for a second term in office on Wednesday, and will have two weeks to form a government which can be approved by parliament.

Hints of tension

In a ceremony broadcast live on state-run TV, Ayatollah Khamenei gave his backing to Mr Ahmadinejad ahead of Wednesday's formal inauguration.

He declared the incumbent president to be the victor of June's election with more than 60% of the vote.

"Iranian people have voted in favour of a fight against arrogance, to confront destitution and spread justice," al-Alam TV quoted the ayatollah as saying.

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Mr Ahmadinejad, 52, accepted a decree from Ayatollah Khamenei, bowing as the supreme leader offered his hand.

There was confusion between the two men as the supreme leader appeared to offer his hand only for Mr Ahmadinejad to reach out and kiss his shoulder.

Whatever the precise symbolic significance, the strangely awkward moment was a graphic representation of the sometimes difficult relationship between the two leaders, says the BBC's Tehran correspondent, Jon Leyne.

But the real challenge to Mr Ahmadinejad after his swearing-in could be whether he can assemble a credible government that can be endorsed by parliament, our correspondent says.

He has been dogged by controversy in recent weeks, becoming embroiled in a series of disputes with conservative politicians who would normally be his allies.

He promoted a close ally, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie, who had angered the establishment by suggesting that Iran was friends with the Israeli people.

The appointment led to anger among conservatives, the resignation of one minister and reports of "chaos" within the government.

Protester trials

The inauguration events come as the authorities continue a crackdown on many of those they allege were involved in directing mass demonstrations after the election results.

About 100 reformists and activists were put on trial in Tehran on Saturday.

Both Mr Mousavi and former President Mohammad Khatami denounced the hearings, which continued on Sunday. The charges include conspiracy, rioting and vandalism.

They were among thousands of Iranians who rejected the official declaration that Mr Ahmadinejad had won the election.

Televised confessions have been broadcast, in which a former vice-president, among others, thanked his interrogator for showing him the error of his ways.

But the process looks more like an attempt to intimidate the opposition than to present credible evidence, our correspondent says.

Mr Mousavi accused the authorities of forcing detainees to confess to the crimes.

"Witnessing such trumped-up trials, the only judgment that the conscience of humanity can make is the moral collapse and discredit of its directors."

Foreign media, including the BBC, have been restricted in their coverage of Iran since the election protests turned into confrontations with the authorities in which at least 30 people were killed.

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França - Le MondeIran : l'élection d'Ahmadinejad officiellement confirmée par le guide suprême

Le guide suprême iranien Ali Khamenei a confirmé, lundi 3 août, la réélection du président Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, au cours d'une cérémonie marquée par l'absence des dirigeants de l'opposition.

Selon Al-Alam, la télévision d'Etat en langue arabe, M. Rafsandjani, qui dirige le Conseil de discernement et l'Assemblée des experts, deux institutions-clés du pouvoir, ainsi que l'ex-président réformateur Mohammad Khatami n'ont pas assisté à la cérémonie. Les deux ex-candidats de l'opposition, Mir Hossein Moussavi et Mehdi Karoubi, qui réclament toujours l'annulation du scrutin présidentiel du 12 juin, étaient également absents lors de cette cérémonie qui a eu lieu deux jours avant l'investiture devant le Parlement du président ultra-conservateur. En revanche, Mohsen Rezai, troisième candidat malheureux à la présidentielle et ancien chef des Gardiens de la révolution, y a assisté.

Le guide suprême a estimé que les Iraniens, en votant pour Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, avaient choisi "la lutte contre l'arrogance et la pauvreté". Ensuite, Ali Khamenei a remis au président Ahmadinejad le décret de sa nomination. M. Ahmadinejad, qui doit prêter serment devant le Parlement mercredi, aura ensuite deux semaines pour présenter les membres de son gouvernement devant les députés afin d'obtenir un vote de confiance.

Agé de 52 ans, M. Ahmadinejad a été réélu avec 62,63 % des voix. L'annonce de sa victoire dès le premier tour a plongé le pays dans sa plus grave crise politique depuis l'instauration de la République islamique en 1979, marquée par des manifestations monstres des partisans des candidats battus, qui l'accusent de fraude électorale. Selon les autorités, une trentaine de personnes ont été tuées lors de ces manifestations.  EUA - The Washington PostAhmadinejad Endorsed; Americans Called Spies

By ALI AKBAR DAREINIAssociated Press Writer

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- Iran's supreme leader formally endorsed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for second term as president Monday in a ceremony that sought to portray unity among the country's leadership but was snubbed by prominent critics of the disputed election.

After Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave his official seal of approval, he received an awkward kiss on the shoulder from Ahmadinejad. It cleared the way for Ahmadinejad to take the oath of office Wednesday in parliament, where many pro-reform lawmakers have echoed the claims of fraud in the June 12 election.

[Also Monday, Iran's Arabic-language television news channel broadcast an "urgent" bulletin accusing three Americans who were arrested Friday after straying across the border of being "CIA agents," an ominous development that suggests the trio will not be released quickly, Washington Post correspondent Thomas Erdbrink reported from Tehran.

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[ The two men and one woman were hiking through the Kurdish area of northern Iraq when they were taken into custody Friday. The United States, which does not have diplomatic relations with Iran, has asked the Swiss government to inquire about the captives and represent U.S. interests.]

Monday's political ceremony with Khamenei showed the deep political divides confronting Ahmadinejad and his backers among the ruling clerics. The event was boycotted by two former presidents -- Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami -- as well as defeated pro-reform candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mahdi Karroubi, state media reported.

Iran's main state TV channels did not offer live coverage of the ceremony in an apparent effort by the country's Islamic rulers to avoid emphasizing the boycotts to domestic audiences. But Iran's state-funded channels in Arabic and English broadcast extensive images of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad -- possibly seeking to display a sense of high-level solidarity on the international stage.

Ahmadinejad -- who kissed Khamenei's hand four years ago to show absolute loyalty -- had a more tentative exchange this time. He appeared to approach Khamenei to kiss his hand, but the leader stopped him and took a step back. The two exchanged words, Ahmadinejad smiled, and then Khamenei allowed him to kiss his shoulder -- not a common gesture in Iran, where men often exchange kisses on the cheeks.

It appeared Khamenei sought to show a close bond with Ahmadinejad without the elaborate display of kissing his hand.

Iran faces some important tests in the early months of Ahmadinejad's second, four-year term.

President Barack Obama has given Iran a September deadline to show a willingness to open dialogue on its nuclear ambitions and other key issues.

Last month, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said the opportunity to talks with Washington "will not remain open indefinitely." The European Union also has signaled that Iran must move quickly to address Western concerns about Tehran's nuclear program -- which some fear could lead to atomic weapons. Iran insists it seeks only energy-producing reactors.

Iran's leadership is also desperate to show cohesion at home.

Ahmadinejad opened a brief -- but potentially disruptive -- confrontation with Khamenei's ruling theocracy in late July by refusing to drop his top deputy, Esfandiar Rahim Mashai, who angered conservatives last year when he made friendly comments toward Israelis. But Ahmadinejad relented and dropped Mashai and others opposed by Khamenei.

But even conservatives have turned against the leadership over the elections and the harsh crackdowns that have followed. On Sunday, Ahmadinejad's main conservative election challenger, Mohsen Rezaei, demanded that authorities hold trials for those accusing of killing protesters.

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More than 100 people, including many prominent reformist political figures, are facing trial for allegedly supporting the post-election unrest. Reino Unido - The GuardianIran supreme leader endorses Ahmadinejad second term

• Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to be sworn in on Wednesday• Khamenei approval comes seven weeks after election

Peter Walker

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, formally endorsed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's second term as president today, seven weeks after bitterly disputed elections prompted mass protests and deep divisions within the country's elite.

Ahmadinejad, who according to official results took 63% of the votes cast in the 12 June poll, received Khameni's approval this morning, state-owned al-Alam television reported, giving few details.

He will be sworn in by the country's mainly conservative parliament on Wednesday, and will have a fortnight to submit his cabinet list to the legislature.

The opposition says Ahmadinejad and his supporters stole the election from the main opposition leader, Mir Hossein Mousavi, through fraud. The official results said Mousavi had won 34% of the 40m votes cast.

Ahmadinejad's re-election saw hundreds of thousands of Iranians take to the streets in protest. At least 30 people died and hundreds of demonstrators were imprisoned.

More than 100 opposition members and activists accused of being involved in post-election violence appeared in court in Tehran at the weekend for the start of what opponents of the government claim is a mass show trial.

According to Iranian media reports, the charges include rioting, attacking military and government buildings and conspiring against the ruling system. Many defendants had spent weeks in jail without access to lawyers, Mousavi said yesterday.

The unrest, Iran's worst since the 1979 Islamic revolution, continued late last week as police fired teargas and wielded batons to disperse thousands of anti-government protesters attending a graveside memorial for victims of the crackdown. Police stopped Mousavi and hundreds of his supporters as they tried to reach the grave of Neda Soltan, the young woman who became a symbol of the protest movement after her death was captured on video.

Ahmadinejad, 52, faces divisions within his own political support base, and the disputed election has exposed rifts within the clergy, with several senior clerics siding with the opposition. 

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TEMAS POLÍTICOS

Reino Unido - The GuardianWe'll talk with US but Cuba stays socialist, insists Raúl Castro

• Scorn for idea president will restore capitalism• Speech comes amid grim economic news

Rory Carroll, Latin America correspondent

Cuba's president, Raúl Castro, has offered to talk to the US and ease half a century of enmity following olive branches from the Obama administration.Castro said he wanted to respond to Washington's effort to recast diplomatic relations but insisted Cuba's communist system was solid and would not be diluted. "We are ready to talk about everything but not to negotiate our political and social system," he told the national assembly on Saturday.

The 78-year-old leader, who formally succeeded his ailing brother Fidel last year, made the announcement amid grim economic news which will curb spending on health and education, twin pillars of the 50-year-old revolution.

The government warned of further austerity in the wake of hurricane damage and a sputtering economy, a sharp contrast to glimmers of diplomatic detente.Castro said there was a chance for negotiations now that the White House had toned down Bush-era hostility towards Havana. "It's true there has been a diminution of the aggression and anti-Cuban rhetoric on the part of the administration."

Barack Obama has slightly eased the draconian US embargo against the island, a policy from the Kennedy administration, and made symbolic gestures such as stopping the electronic ticker from the US mission in Havana which used to taunt Cuba's rulers with pro-democracy slogans.

Castro noted however that the embargo remained in effect and he rejected comments by the US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, linking improved relations with concessions from Havana.

"I have to say, with all due respect to Mrs Clinton ... they didn't elect me president to restore capitalism in Cuba, nor to hand over the revolution. I was elected to defend, maintain and continue perfecting socialism, not destroy it," he said to a standing ovation.

He scorned those who believe the Cuban regime would crumble once he, Fidel and other ageing figures from the revolution died, saying: "If that's how they think, they are doomed to failure."

The US used to look forward to a so-called "poof moment" when the communist system 90 miles off Florida collapsed upon Fidel Castro's death. But when illness sidelined him three years ago his younger brother seamlessly took over.

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Raúl Castro has offered to talk to Washington before, but doing so in a national assembly address gave the words added weight. There was no immediate response from the state department.

"What we have here is an important and continuing effort by Raúl to signal that discussions with the US are something he very much wants," said Larry Birns, director of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs thinktank.

"Raúl is conducting himself like someone who wants to be accepted as a serious discussion partner. He has been non-judgmental in his relations with the US and on occasion been relatively warm. From the US viewpoint Cuba has been on good behaviour."

The US is the only country in the hemisphere to not have diplomatic ties with Havana, a position many critics consider anachronistic and self-defeating. Obama has authorised the resumption of talks over migration and disaster preparedness, low-level contacts which were severed during the Bush administration.

European diplomats, and many US commentators, are impatient for bolder moves and call Cuba a "low-hanging fruit" ripe for engagement in contrast to recalcitrant regimes in Iran and North Korea. The Cuban-American community which once lobbied for complete isolation of the Castros is now split, with a new generation urging closer ties with Cuba.

Havana, once a pariah, has returned to the international fold and recently hosted leaders from Latin America, Asia, Russia and the EU. But that diplomatic shine contrasts with a darkening economy which has seen growth projections for this year slashed form 6% to 1.7%, with even the lower figure considered optimistic.

Castro said the government cut its budget for the second time this year to confront Cuba's worst financial crisis since the "special period" of the 1990s when the end of Soviet Union subsidies left the population close to starvation.

Tropical storms last year caused £6bn worth of damage and since then the global slowdown has hit nickel exports and tourism revenues. "We've been forced to renegotiate debts, payments and other commitments with foreign entities," said the president.

Spending on education and health care, which are free and universal, would be cut, he said, without much elaboration.

Many Cubans grumble that schools and hospitals have already degraded because teachers and doctors prefer to hustle on the parallel economy than work for monthly state salaries of just £12.

França - International Herald TribuneGeorgia Says Russia Is Trying to Seize More Land

TBILISI, Georgia (AP) -- Georgia accused Russia on Monday of trying to take more territory outside the breakaway province of South Ossetia as tensions rose before the first anniversary of the Russian-Georgian war last summer.

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Georgia's Foreign Ministry said Russian troops entered the village of Kveshi near South Ossetia on Sunday and erected posts marking a new border.

''It's very alarming that as the first anniversary of the Russian aggression against Georgia comes close, Russia and its puppets are deliberately inciting tensions and behave defiantly,'' the ministry said in a statement.

Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Alexei Kuznetsov would not immediately comment on the situation. However, Russian border guards on Monday removed the border posts they had erected several hundred meters (yards) away from the administrative border of South Ossetia, Georgia's interior ministry said.

Steve Bird, a spokesman for the European Union's observer mission in Georgia, said monitors were following the situation closely but Russian border guards had assured them they had no plan to move their checkpoint to the new marked-off area.

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin discussed the situation around South Ossetia in a phone call Sunday with William Burns, U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs, the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

''It was emphasized that it's necessary to prevent military provocations which could further destabilize the already explosive situation on the border,'' the ministry said in a statement.

The situation near South Ossetia has become increasingly tense as the first anniversary of the war approaches, with Georgia and Russia blaming each other for provocations and intentions to resume fighting.

South Ossetia's separatist authorities have accused Georgia of firing gunshots and mortar rounds near the provincial capital of Tskhinvali on two separate occasions last week. Georgian authorities dismissed the allegations and accused separatists of firing at Georgians. No one was hurt.

The Russian Defense Ministry warned Georgia on Saturday that it ''reserves the right to use all available forces and means to protect the citizens of South Ossetia and Russian servicemen'' in case of further Georgian ''provocations.''

Georgian officials said that statement reflected Moscow's hostile intentions.

Temuri Yakobashvili, a Georgian Cabinet minister, reaffirmed Monday that Georgia has no intention to use force. ''There is no military solution to the conflict,'' he told the AP.

The August war began when Georgia launched an offensive to regain control over Moscow-backed South Ossetia. Russia quickly sent in thousands of troops and tanks that routed the Georgian military and drove deep into Georgia. A truce negotiated by the European Union ended five days of fierce fighting.

Georgian authorities claimed they had to launch an artillery barrage on Tskhinvali because Russia had troops into South Ossetia hours earlier. Moscow denied the claim and said it acted to protect its peacekeepers and civilians there.

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After the war, Russia recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia, another separatist region in Georgia, as independent nations and permanently deployed thousands of troops there.

The EU monitors are the only remaining international ones in Georgia, but they are blocked from traveling inside South Ossetia and Abkhazia

TEMAS ECONÔMICOS E COMERCIAIS  

China - People's Daily OnlineChina to cement partnership with Latin America: Ambassador

A senior Chinese diplomat said here on Monday that the country would continue to push forward ties with the Latin American and Caribbean countries.

"It is the firm foreign policy of the Chinese government to enhance unity and cooperation with the Latin American countries," said Qiu Xiaoqi, Chinese ambassador to Brazil, in an interview with Xinhua.

In recent years, the Latin American countries have actively explored their own path of development and maintained political stability and sustained economic growth, said Qiu.

As regional cooperation flourishes, the overall strength of the region has grown, Qiu said, adding Latin American countries have become an important force in the international arena.

"Both China and the Latin America are in the similar stage of development and face the same task of development," Qiu said.

The mutual trust and friendship between China and Latin American countries were enhanced, featuring frequent high-level contact and improved dialogue between the two sides, said Qiu.

"The two sides have also shown mutual understanding and support to each other's core interests and issues of major concern, and maintained close communication and coordination on major international affairs," he said.

The Sino-Latin American economic and trade exchanges and cooperation have expanded and the mutual investment has increased as well in recent years, Qiu said.

In 2008, the trade volume between China and Latin America reached nearly 150 billion U.S. dollars, a more than ten-fold increase compared to 2000.

The areas of cooperation were also expanding to such fields as energy and resources, telecommunication, infrastructure construction, agriculture and finance.

The Sino-Latin American humanistic exchanges were ever expanding, featuring frequent mutual visits of cultural groups and various cultural activities, said Qiu.

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He said the establishment of Confucius Institutes and the "Chinese fever" in more and more Latin American countries had helped consolidate the friendship between the two peoples.

At present, the international situation is undergoing the most profound and complex changes since the end of the Cold War, and the rise of emerging countries has become one of the most active factors in promoting the development of international situation, Qiu said.

Latin America is an important region with regard to the rise of emerging countries. The regional powers played active roles in the frameworks of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China), the Group of Five (G5) and the Group of 20, of which Brazil is particularly prominent, he said.

"Under the new circumstances, we will further strengthen ties with Brazil from a strategic height and long-term perspective," Qiu said.

"First, We will have more high-level exchanges with Brazil," he said. Since 2008, Chinese president Hu Jintao and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva have met six times on bilateral ties and major international issues, which specified the direction of the development of bilateral ties.

He said China would continue to deepen pragmatic cooperation with Brazil. Against the backdrop of financial crisis, the China-Brazil trade volume has kept growing. China became the first trading partner of Brazil in April 2009, and the two countries signed a 10 billion U.S. dollar oil trade and financing agreement in May this year.

China and Brazil would also strengthen multilateral coordination, said Qiu. At the G20 summits in Washington and London, the two countries maintained close communication and cooperation on issues of coping with the financial crisis and promoting the reform of international financial system.

The leaders of both countries also attended the first summit of the BRICs, where they had in-depth discussion on major issues of common concern and expanded their consensus.

"The Sino-Brazilian cooperation has boosted the development of the Sino-Latin American ties and the cooperation between the emerging countries, which plays an increasingly important role in building a more just and rational international political and economic order," Qiu said.

China issued its first policy paper on Latin America and the Caribbean in November 2008. It says that the Chinese government seeks to build and develop a comprehensive and cooperative partnership featuring equality, mutual benefit and common development with countries in the region.

In the address to the Peruvian Congress last November, Chinese President Hu Jintao also elaborated on the connotation of the partnership and raised five proposals to boost Sino-Latin American cooperation.

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"We will live up to the spirit of the 11th meeting of diplomatic envoys and push forward the Sino-Latin American ties so as to make greater contribution to building a harmonious world." Qiu said Reino Unido - The IndependentWarning: Oil supplies are running out fast

Catastrophic shortfalls threaten economic recovery, says world's top energy economist

By Steve Connor, Science Editor

The world is heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple a global economic recovery because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production, a leading energy economist has warned.

Higher oil prices brought on by a rapid increase in demand and a stagnation, or even decline, in supply could blow any recovery off course, said Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, which is charged with the task of assessing future energy supplies by OECD countries.

In an interview with The Independent, Dr Birol said that the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years – at least a decade earlier than most governments had estimated.

But the first detailed assessment of more than 800 oil fields in the world, covering three quarters of global reserves, has found that most of the biggest fields have already peaked and that the rate of decline in oil production is now running at nearly twice the pace as calculated just two years ago. On top of this, there is a problem of chronic under-investment by oil-producing countries, a feature that is set to result in an "oil crunch" within the next five years which will jeopardise any hope of a recovery from the present global economic recession, he said.

In a stark warning to Britain and the other Western powers, Dr Birol said that the market power of the very few oil-producing countries that hold substantial reserves of oil – mostly in the Middle East – would increase rapidly as the oil crisis begins to grip after 2010.

"One day we will run out of oil, it is not today or tomorrow, but one day we will run out of oil and we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and we have to prepare ourselves for that day," Dr Birol said. "The earlier we start, the better, because all of our economic and social system is based on oil, so to change from that will take a lot of time and a lot of money and we should take this issue very seriously," he said.

"The market power of the very few oil-producing countries, mainly in the Middle East, will increase very quickly. They already have about 40 per cent share of the oil market and this will increase much more strongly in the future," he said.

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There is now a real risk of a crunch in the oil supply after next year when demand picks up because not enough is being done to build up new supplies of oil to compensate for the rapid decline in existing fields.

The IEA estimates that the decline in oil production in existing fields is now running at 6.7 per cent a year compared to the 3.7 per cent decline it had estimated in 2007, which it now acknowledges to be wrong.

"If we see a tightness of the markets, people in the street will see it in terms of higher prices, much higher than we see now. It will have an impact on the economy, definitely, especially if we see this tightness in the markets in the next few years," Dr Birol said.

"It will be especially important because the global economy will still be very fragile, very vulnerable. Many people think there will be a recovery in a few years' time but it will be a slow recovery and a fragile recovery and we will have the risk that the recovery will be strangled with higher oil prices," he told The Independent.

In its first-ever assessment of the world's major oil fields, the IEA concluded that the global energy system was at a crossroads and that consumption of oil was "patently unsustainable", with expected demand far outstripping supply. Oil production has already peaked in non-Opec countries and the era of cheap oil has come to an end, it warned.

In most fields, oil production has now peaked, which means that other sources of supply have to be found to meet existing demand.

Even if demand remained steady, the world would have to find the equivalent of four Saudi Arabias to maintain production, and six Saudi Arabias if it is to keep up with the expected increase in demand between now and 2030, Dr Birol said.

"It's a big challenge in terms of the geology, in terms of the investment and in terms of the geopolitics. So this is a big risk and it's mainly because of the rates of the declining oil fields," he said.

"Many governments now are more and more aware that at least the day of cheap and easy oil is over... [however] I'm not very optimistic about governments being aware of the difficulties we may face in the oil supply," he said.

Environmentalists fear that as supplies of conventional oil run out, governments will be forced to exploit even dirtier alternatives, such as the massive reserves of tar sands in Alberta, Canada, which would be immensely damaging to the environment because of the amount of energy needed to recover a barrel of tar-sand oil compared to the energy needed to collect the same amount of crude oil.

"Just because oil is running out faster than we have collectively assumed, does not mean the pressure is off on climate change," said Jeremy Leggett, a former oil-industry consultant and now a green entrepreneur with Solar Century.

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"Shell and others want to turn to tar, and extract oil from coal. But these are very carbon-intensive processes, and will deepen the climate problem," Dr Leggett said.

"What we need to do is accelerate the mobilisation of renewables, energy efficiency and alternative transport.

"We have to do this for global warming reasons anyway, but the imminent energy crisis redoubles the imperative," he said.

Oil: An unclear future *Why is oil so important as an energy source? Crude oil has been critical for economic development and the smooth functioning of almost every aspect of society. Agriculture and food production is heavily dependent on oil for fuel and fertilisers. In the US, for instance, it takes the direct and indirect use of about six barrels of oil to raise one beef steer. It is the basis of most transport systems. Oil is also crucial to the drugs and chemicals industries and is a strategic asset for the military.

*How are oil reserves estimated? The amount of oil recoverable is always going to be an assessment subject to the vagaries of economics – which determines the price of the oil and whether it is worth the costs of pumping it out –and technology, which determines how easy it is to discover and recover. Probable reserves have a better than 50 per cent chance of getting oil out. Possible reserves have less than 50 per cent chance.

*Why is there such disagreement over oil reserves? All numbers tend to be informed estimates. Different experts make different assumptions so it is under- standable that they can come to different conclusions. Some countries see the size of their oilfields as a national security issue and do not want to provide accurate information. Another problem concerns how fast oil production is declining in fields that are past their peak production. The rate of decline can vary from field to field and this affects calculations on the size of the reserves. A further factor is the expected size of future demand for oil.

*What is "peak oil" and when will it be reached? This is the point when the maximum rate at which oil is extracted reaches a peak because of technical and geological constraints, with global production going into decline from then on. The UK Government, along with many other governments, has believed that peak oil will not occur until well into the 21st Century, at least not until after 2030. The International Energy Agency believes peak oil will come perhaps by 2020. But it also believes that we are heading for an even earlier "oil crunch" because demand after 2010 is likely to exceed dwindling supplies.

*With global warming, why should we be worried about peak oil? There are large reserves of non-conventional oil, such as the tar sands of Canada. But this oil is dirty and will produce vast amounts of carbon dioxide which will make a nonsense of any climate change agreement. Another problem concerns how fast oil production is declining in fields that are past their peak production. The rate of decline can vary from field

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to field and this affects calculations on the size of the reserves. If we are not adequately prepared for peak oil, global warming could become far worse than expected

Portugal - Agência LusaFórum econômico antecede visita de Hillary Clinton à África

Lisboa, (Lusa) - A visita da secretária de Estado norte-americana, Hillary Clinton, ao continente africano, que inclui passagens por Angola e Cabo Verde, será antecedida, a partir de terça-feira, por um Fórum de Cooperação Comercial e Econômica EUA-África.

A ministra angolana do Comércio, Idalina Valente, chegou no domingo a Nairobi, capital do Quênia, à frente de uma delegação que integra ainda o vice-ministro da Agricultura, José Amaro Tati, para participar no evento que tem como lema “A Realização do Potencial dos AGOA Pela Expansão de Comércio e Investimentos”.

Criados 2000, os acordos AGOA - African Growth Opportunity Act (Iniciativa de Oportunidades para o Crescimento Africano) incluem medidas de estímulo econômico, como a entrada no mercado norte-americano de produtos africanos, como contrapartida a medidas de boa governabilidade.

A vigência dos acordos era inicialmente de oito anos, mas foi estendida até 2015.

O Fórum é composto por países como Angola, Camarões, Cabo-Verde, República Democrática Congo, Djibuti, Etiópia, Gabão e Gâmbia, Guiné-Bissau, Quénia, Libéria e Madagáscar, Mali, Ilhas Maurícias, Moçambique, Namíbia, Níger, São Tomé e Príncipe, África do Sul e Tanzânia.

Durante a visita ao continente, que começa em Nairobi na quarta-feira, Hillary Clinton vai estar em sete países, incluindo Angola e Cabo Verde, sendo este país a última etapa da viagem que termina a 14 de agosto.

Empenho

Em conferência no final da semana passada em Washington, o secretário de Estado Adjunto para os Assuntos Africanos, Johnnie Carson, afirmou que a viagem servirá para demonstrar o "empenho" do governo Obama em "manter África como uma prioridade" da política externa norte-americana.

De acordo com Carson, a visita servirá para destacar o desejo norte-americano de fazer parcerias com governos, setor privado, organizações não-governamentais e cidadãos "para construir sociedades em que cada indivíduo pode realizar todo o seu potencial".

Entre os temas que serão abrodados, "apresentados pelo presidente Obama", estão a boa maneira de governar, desenvolvimento econômico sustentável, saúde pública e educação e assistência à prevenção e resolução de conflitos na África.Potência energética

Sobre Angola, Carson destacou tratar-se de uma das grandes potências energéticas da África subsaariana e grande fornecedor de petróleo e gás natural aos Estados Unidos, um

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"país emergente" na região e com "enorme potencial econômico", com o qual se pretende "fortalecer o relacionamento".

Na agenda de Clinton está um encontro com o presidente angolano, José Eduardo dos Santos, e também com o ministro das Relações Exteriores, Assunção dos Anjos, com quem já esteve reunida há um mês em Washington.

Quanto a Cabo Verde, é "uma história de sucesso africano", um país "governado democraticamente, bem gerido e que tem usado extraordinariamente bem a ajuda econômica que recebe dos Estados Unidos, incluindo uma conta no fundo Millennium Challenge", disse Carson.

A visita "vai reafirmar a nossa amizade com Cabo Verde", concluiu.

MEIO AMBIENTE

Reino Unido - Agência BBC Deforestation is 'key climate issue'

By Gary Duffy

Set deep in among the southern edge of the Amazon rainforest, the Xingu Indigenous Park seems isolated from the problems of the world.

But the tribal leaders here were pleased to welcome a British minister who will play a key role in this year's summit in Copenhagen on climate change.

It seemed a long way from the corridors of Whitehall for Energy and Climate Minister Ed Miliband, but the issues confronting the world's largest continuous rainforest have a much wider resonance.

In Brazil deforestation is responsible for more than half of carbon emissions, while across the world it is blamed for up to 20% of the gases that are said to be heating the planet.

"The cutting down of the forests is responsible for about a fifth of the world's carbon emissions," Mr Miliband told the BBC News website.

"That is more than the whole of the transport sector - cars, airplanes, and everything in the world put together.

"So it is absolutely critical that we get an agreement at Copenhagen that involves reducing those rates of deforestation.

"But we have to do it in a way that helps the people who live in the forests, that I have been meeting, so they too have an interest in participating in that process.

“ The community tries to follow the stars to plant crops. But the rain doesn't come and the plants are dying while the river gets even drier" ”

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Young indigenous leader

"If we don't get forests to be part of Copenhagen it would be like the Kyoto agreement when we didn't have the United States in that agreement."

The Xingu Indigenous Park has been protected territory for nearly 50 years, and is home to some 15 groups which speak a variety of languages.

But the people who live here say these are worrying times.

They fear the impact of government plans for major hydroelectric projects along the nearby river, while illegal loggers continue to try to encroach on indigenous land.

They also blame climate change for some of their problems.

Rains that do not come with the same frequency, drying out the seeds that are crucial for the harvest. Nearby rivers which do not rise and fall the way they used to.

One young indigenous leader told Mr Miliband: "Years ago the rains used to come in October or November.

"But now with these changes the community tries to follow the stars to plant crops. But the rain doesn't come and the plants are dying while the river gets even drier."

Other problems in the region surrounding the Xingu can be clearly seen from the air - the smoke from fires a sign of yet more destruction, but elsewhere some people are trying to make a difference.

Mr Miliband got an almost royal welcome to Sao Jose do Xingu, where farmers and local communities are working together to restore parts of the rainforest.

"Y Ikatu Xingu" which means "good, clean waters of the Xingu" was launched in 2004 by Instituto Socioambiental, a Brazilian non-governmental organisation.

It is currently working on more than 50 projects such as forest restoration and land management, as well as training teachers and other professionals.

To help cut the cost of restoring forests a network of "seed providers" was established involving five indigenous communities within the Xingu Park.

In 2007 they are said to have provided seven tonnes of seeds, which generated an income of more than £10,000 for the people who did the collecting.

“ We have been causing the emissions in the atmosphere which are now heating up the planet ”Ed Miliband

Rodrigo Junqueira of Y Ikatu Xingu says initially there was mistrust between farmers and campaigners, but gradually this was overcome.

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"Without doubt in the start there was lot of resistance, and prejudice on their part and ours, because non-governmental groups have the stigma of always trying to undermine the work of the cattle ranchers," he says.

"And the only way to get over this was through our own work, showing them that we are here to contribute and to build solutions together.

"It doesn't mean that we always agree with everything they do, that we all think the same.

"But when we work and show that it is possible to achieve things we were able to get over this resistance, and build trust."

It is a slow process, for the moment far exceeded by destruction elsewhere.

But it is in work such as this that the politicians who gather in Copenhagen may find some of the answers to deforestation.

When it comes to the issue of reducing emissions, Ed Miliband accepts that richer, more developed nations have to face up to some particular responsibilities.

"Developed countries like Britain do have a responsibility to do more," he says.

"We have caused the emissions over the last 150 years or so when we have been growing as a country, along with others.

"We have been causing the emissions in the atmosphere which are now heating up the planet.

"We accept our responsibilities by showing that we will cut emissions faster than other countries and developing countries which have lots of people in poverty.

"We also need to find ways of helping to finance some of the changes that need to take place in developing countries as well, like managing the forests more sustainably."

'All connected together'

He says he is hopeful that there will be agreement at Copenhagen, but is also realistic.

"The truth is that what you realise coming here is that we are all connected together.

"Unless we can find a way of giving the people here an improvement in their standard of living which doesn't involve chopping down the forest, we are never going to get the kind of agreement on climate change that we need."

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has also expressed the belief that a deal can be reached at Copenhagen.

But if past traditions are anything to go by, it seems certain to involve long detailed negotiations that will end in a frenzied round of discussions in the early hours of a December morning.

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Reino Unido - UTVMiliband delivers message to forest tribes deep in the Amazon

Energy minister to meet Brazil's environmentalists, policy makers and people on the frontline of deforestation

Halting deforestation is essential to preventing dangerous global warming, the energy and climate change secretary, Ed Miliband, has told indigenous tribesmen and women on a visit to the heart of the Amazon rainforest.

Cutting down trees causes 17% of global carbon emissions - more than global transport - and much of it happens in the Amazon. But mechanisms by which rich nations can persuade forested nations that the trees are worth more standing than felled have been problematic, with issues of land ownership, the role of indigenous people and corruption hindering progress.

OUTROS TEMAS

Reino Unido - The Sunday Telegraph Brazil fraud accused 'unlikely to go to jail'

Two English women facing charges of insurance fraud in Brazil have been released and are unlikely to go to jail even if found guilty, a judge in their case said.

By Andrew Downie in Rio de Janeiro

Shanti Andrews and Rebecca Turner, both 23, were released on Saturday night after a week-long ordeal they described as a "living nightmare." The two friends are accused of trying to defraud an insurance company by claiming their luggage had been robbed.

In Brazil fraud carries a prison sentence of between one and five years. However, the judge who released them on Friday hinted jail is not likely.

"In the hypothesis of an eventual guilty verdict, the imposition of a custodial sentence is a remote possibility," said Judge Sergio Varani on releasing them.

The girls said they were "ecstatic" at being released from the appalling conditions. They slept on a concrete floor with only a thin blanket for protection, alongside murderers who offered them drugs.

"When our lawyers told us we were getting out, we both thought it was unbelievable," Turner told the Mail on Sunday. "We'd never believed it was going to happen. We both started crying." "There were moments when we wondered if we would ever get out of there," she added.

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The two law graduates were arrested on Monday and spent four nights in a squalid jail cell before being transferred to Rio's biggest penitentiary to spend one more night.

They were freed on Saturday after a judge approved a habeas corpus motion allowing them to await their trial in freedom. They are to see a judge on Aug 5, who will then set a date for a trial.

The two women allegedly claimed that thieves robbed them of around £1,000 worth of possessions, including a camera and laptop computer, while they were travelling on a bus from Foz do Iguaçú to Rio de Janeiro.

However, they took several days to report the incident and officers suspected they were lying. They ordered them back to their hostel, where police said they found the allegedly stolen items under their bed.

Their lawyer said they girls understood the gravity of the charges but had voluntarily surrendered their passports and would stay in Rio awaiting Wednesday's court date.

"They are anxious and worried," said Renato Tonini. "They know their future is at stake."

Tonini said the girls had not yet decided whether to plead innocent or guilty.   

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