Asesoria3-Con Risk Simulator_CORREGIDO

FLUJO DE CAJA

ESCENARIO PROB F/C t pxF/C FC t - E(FC) (FC t - E(FC))^21 0.1 200 20 -125 156252 0.2 250 50 -75 56253 0.3 300 90 -25 6254 0.1 350 35 25 6255 0.1 400 40 75 56256 0.2 450 90 125 15625

E(F/C) 1 325 VAR (FC)1DESV EST (FC)1

ESCENARIO PROB F/C t p x FC FC t - E(FC) (FC t - E(FC))^21 0.2 300 60 -94 88362 0.2 350 70 -44 19363 0.1 400 40 6 364 0.1 420 42 26 6765 0.1 440 44 46 21166 0.3 460 138 66 4356


ESCENARIO PROB F/C t p x FC FC t - E(FC) (FC t - E(FC))^21 0.2 450 90 -130 169002 0.2 500 100 -80 64003 0.1 550 55 -30 9004 0.1 600 60 20 4005 0.1 650 65 70 49006 0.3 700 210 120 14400


VALOR ESPERADO DEL VPN0 1 2 3

E(F/C) -850000 325000 394000 580000tasa dcto 0.15E(VPN) 111,888.72 €

Se asume independencia entre proyectosaño DESV EST VARIANZA VALOR PRE

2 81.39410298 6625 5,009.45 €4 61.188234163 3744 2,140.64 €6 97.979589711 9600 4,150.34 €

VA 11,300.44 €DE(VPN) 106,303.53 €

El resultado anterior nos indica que la variabilidad o disperison promedioalrededor del valor esperado del VPN es 106,303532. aprox.Dados los resultados anteriores se puede hallar LA PROBABILIDAD DE PERDER EL PROYECTO. Es decir de que el VPN<0Si asumimos que el VAN es una v.a. con distribucion normal.Primero, estandarizar la variable

Luego, hallamos la probabilidad requeridaz= [VPN-E(VPN)]/DE(VPN)z= [VPN-111888,72)]/106,303532

PROB (VPN<0) = PROB[(VPN-111888,72)/106,303532 < (0-111888,72)/106,303532]PROB(Z< -1.0525 €

prob (vpn<0) = 14.63%

p x (FC t - E(FC))^21562.5

1125187.5

62.5562.531256625

81.3941029804985

p x (FC t - E(FC))^21767.2

387.23.6

67.6211.6

1306.83744

61.1882341631134

p x (FC t - E(FC))^233801280

9040

49043209600

97.9795897113271

DOS PROYECTOS

PROYECTO A

LIMONES, UVAS Y MANGOSLIMONES

ESCENARIO FC2 PROB p x FC2 FC - E(FC) (FC - E(FC))^21 45 0.2 9 -9 812 65 0.6 39 11 1213 30 0.2 6 -24 576

E(FC)2 54 vardesv esta

escenario FC4 PROB p x FC3 FC - E(FC) (FC - E(FC))^21 35 0.4 14 -13 1692 55 0.4 22 7 493 60 0.2 12 12 144

E(FC4) 48 VARDES. EST

0 1 2 3 4FC -150 50 54 60 48E(VAN) S/. 48.99TASA DSCTO 0.1

Se asume perfecta correlacionaño desv esta var DE present

1 0 0 02 14.2828569 204 S/. 11.803 0 0 S/. 0.004 10.7703296 116 S/. 7.365 0 0 S/. 0.00

DE (VAN) 19.160294

UVAS

PX (FC - E(FC))^216.272.6

115.2204

14.28285685709

PX (FC - E(FC))^267.619.628.8116

10.77032961427

550

EARTHILIZER2008 2009 2010 2011

0 1 2 3 40.1 VENTAS 1000000 1100000 1210000 1331000

0.674 COSTO DE V 674000 741400 815540 8970940.326 UTI BRUTA 326000 358600 394460 433906

0.1 gastos operativos 100000 110000 121000 133100costo fijo 115000 115000 115000 115000EBITDA 111000 133600 158460 185806DEPRE 33000 33000 33000 33000EBIT 78000 100600 125460 152806

0.3 NOPAT 54600 70420 87822 106964.2DEPRE 33000 33000 33000 33000CAPEX -330000

0.25 VAR CTN -250000 -25000 -27500 -30250 -33275VR

FCL -580000 62600 75920 90572 106689.2tasa de descto 0.1325VAN 33,172.03 €tir 0.15 €

REQUERIMIENTO DEL CTN

NECESITO -250000 -275000 -302500 -332750 -366025DEVUELVO 0 250000 275000 302500 332750VAR CTN -250000 -25000 -27500 -30250 -33275

solucion ene l titman, pagina 69

20125 Inverison Inicial

1464100 CTN 250000986803.4 EQUIPOS 330000477296.6 vida util 10 años

146410 Depre anual 33000115000 V. SALVAMENTO 0

215886.6 valor en libro 16500033000

182886.6

128020.6233000

366025165000

692045.62

0366025366025

Simulation - New Simulation

General

Number of Trials 10000Stop Simulation on Error NoRandom Seed RandomEnable Correlations Yes

Assumptions

Name emento anual del 10%) Name A4: EARTHILIZER Name A6: EARTHILIZEREnabled Yes Enabled Yes Enabled YesCell $D$4 Cell $A$4 Cell $A$6Dynamic Simulation No Dynamic Simulation No Dynamic Simulation No

Range Range Range Minimum -Infinito Minimum -Infinito Minimum -Infinito Maximum Infinito Maximum Infinito Maximum Infinito

Distribution Uniform Distribution Triangular Distribution Triangular Minimum 500000 Minimum -0.1 Minimum 0.28 Maximum 1500000 Most Likely 0.1 Most Likely 0.326

Maximum 0.3 Maximum 0.4

Name A7: EARTHILIZER Name H17: VREnabled Yes Enabled YesCell $A$7 Cell $H$17Dynamic Simulation No Dynamic Simulation No

Range Range Minimum -Infinito Minimum -Infinito Maximum Infinito Maximum Infinito

Distribution Triangular Distribution Uniform Minimum 0.05 Minimum 82500 Most Likely 0.1 Maximum 247500 Maximum 0.15

Forecasts

Name VAN Number of Datapoints 10000Enabled Yes Mean 72622.3150Cell $C$21 Median 57316.8360

Standard Deviation 143767.9435Forecast Precision Variance 20669221586.1785 Precision Level --- Coefficient of Variation 1.9797 Error Level --- Maximum 704077.0550

Minimum -266474.1605Range 970551.2155Skewness 0.5228Kurtosis -0.095225% Percentile -37758.305175% Percentile 166946.3621Error Precision at 95% 0.0388

Name tir Number of Datapoints 10000

Enabled Yes Mean 0.1627Cell $C$22 Median 0.1606

Standard Deviation 0.0670Forecast Precision Variance 0.0045 Precision Level --- Coefficient of Variation 0.4119 Error Level --- Maximum 0.4151

Minimum -0.0303Range 0.4454Skewness 0.2136Kurtosis -0.364225% Percentile 0.113175% Percentile 0.2093Error Precision at 95% 0.0081

Correlation Matrix

S(Incremento anual del 10%)ARTHILIZERARTHILIZER EARTHILIZER H17: VRto anual del 10%) 1.00

A4: EARTHILIZER 0.00 1.00A6: EARTHILIZER 0.00 0.00 1.00A7: EARTHILIZER 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00

H17: VR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00

EARTHILIZER2008 2009 2010 2011

0 1 2 3 40.1 VENTAS 1000000 1100000 1210000 1331000

0.674 COSTO DE V 674000 741400 815540 8970940.326 UTI BRUTA 326000 358600 394460 433906

0.1 gastos operativos 100000 110000 121000 133100costo fijo 115000 115000 115000 115000EBITDA 111000 133600 158460 185806DEPRE 33000 33000 33000 33000EBIT 78000 100600 125460 152806

0.3 NOPAT 54600 70420 87822 106964.2DEPRE 33000 33000 33000 33000CAPEX -330000

0.25 VAR CTN -250000 -25000 -27500 -30250 -33275VRrecuper CTNFCL -580000 62600 75920 90572 106689.2tasa de desct 0.1325VAN 33,172.03 €tir 0.15 €

REQUERIMIENTO DEL CTN

NECESITO -250000 -275000 -302500 -332750 -366025DEVUELVO 0 250000 275000 302500 332750VAR CTN -250000 -25000 -27500 -30250 -33275

solucion ene l titman, pagina 69

A4

Risk Simulator Assumption Name = A4: EARTHILIZER Triangular Minimum = -0.1 MostLikely = 0.1 Maximum = 0.3

D4

Risk Simulator Assumption Name = D4: VENTAS(Incremento anual del 10%) Uniform Minimum = 500000 Maximum = 1500000

A6

Risk Simulator Assumption Name = A6: EARTHILIZER Triangular Minimum = 0.28 MostLikely = 0.326 Maximum = 0.4

A7

Risk Simulator Assumption Name = A7: EARTHILIZER Triangular Minimum = 0.05 MostLikely = 0.1 Maximum = 0.15

C21

Risk Simulator Forecast Name = VAN

C22

Risk Simulator Forecast Name = tir

20125 Inverison Inicial

1464100 CTN 250000986803.4 EQUIPOS 330000477296.6 vida util 10 años

146410 Depre anual 33000115000 V. SALVAME 0

215886.6 valor en libro 16500033000

182886.6

128020.6233000

366025165000

692045.62 0

0366025366025

H17

Risk Simulator Assumption Name = H17: VR Uniform Minimum = 82500 Maximum = 247500

ANALISIS PUNTO MUERTO valor esperado valor critico variacion % variacion difTABLA QUE NOS PIDENtasa de crecimiento de ventas 10% 6% -0.373 -4%margen utilidad bruta 33% 31% -0.03496933 -1%gastos operativos 10% 11% 0.114 1%tasa impuestos 30% 38% 0.26033333 8%ctn ventas 25% 31% 0.2404 6%ventas año base 2008

1,000,000.00 936,380.00 -0.06362 -63,620.00

tener cuidado, cuando se cambia las variable,s porq afecta en las utilidades.

Asesoria3-Con Risk Simulator_CORREGIDO

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