PRONÓSTICOS: SERIES TEMPORALES - PROCESO CONSTANTEDemanda: Venta en cajas de V1: Vinos De Solana Tinto de mesa V.1978, 1 Lt, en la ciudad de Cochabamba, en la gestión 2011

Pesos = Pesos =0.1 0.35

Parámetros > N = 3 0.3 0.35 alfa = alfa =

0.6 0.30 0.1 0.238379623

Mes Demanda Ultimo Dato Promedio

1 96 96.00 99.332 103 96 96.00 96.00 98.543 99 103 99.50 96.70 99.604 88 99 99.33 99.33 99.90 99.35 96.93 99.465 103 88 96.50 96.67 92.80 97.10 96.04 96.736 91 103 97.80 96.67 98.10 96.35 96.73 98.227 94 91 96.67 94.00 94.30 94.15 96.16 96.508 90 94 96.29 96.00 94.00 96.10 95.94 95.909 100 90 95.50 91.67 91.30 91.75 95.35 94.50

10 81 100 96.00 94.67 96.40 94.40 95.81 95.8111 85 81 94.50 90.33 87.60 90.80 94.33 92.2812 113 85 93.64 88.67 85.30 88.85 93.40 90.5413 Pronóstico 113 95.25 93.00 101.40 92.00 95.36 95.90

BIAS 1.55 -1.34 -0.33 0.59 -0.43 -0.58 -1.20 uMAD 10.64 8.13 9.00 9.77 8.94 7.95 7.65 |u|ECM 167.36 93.02 123.72 155.45 121.55 87.98 91.85 u2PAME 11.06% 8.65% 9.44% 10.14% 9.38% 8.41% 8.08% %

Promedio Móvil

Promedio Móvil Pond.

Promedio Móvil Pond.

Suav. Exp. Simple

Suav. Exp. Simple 2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 130

20

40

60

80

100

120

Gráfico de demanda del producto V1 en cajas

Demanda

Suav Exp. Simple 2

Demanda Suav Exp. Simple 2

96 99.3333333

103 98.5387346

99 99.6022094

88 99.4586549

103 96.7271451

91 98.2224659

94 96.5007772

90 95.9046429

100 94.4970963

81 95.8088764

85 92.278742

113 90.5436383

95.8967773

PRONÓSTICOS: SERIES TEMPORALES - PROCESO CON TENDENCIADatos:

Mes Ventas

1 75

2 158

3 173

4 210

5 215

6 199

7 220

8 218

Modelo de Sipper Modelo de Holt Modelo de Holt Optimizado con Solvervalor Ubicado en

Promedio I 154.0 2.5 alfa 0.1 alfa 0.755785

Promedio II 213.0 6.5 beta 0.2 beta 0.441507

Promedio G. 183.5 4.5 X1 75 X1 75

Tendencia 14.75 T1 14.75 T1 14.75

Mes Ventas Bias DAM DCM PAME Mes Lineal Tendencia Pronóstico Bias DAM DCM PAME Lineal Lineal Tendencia Pronóstico Bias DAM DCM PAME

0 117.1

1 75 131.9 56.9 56.9 3234.8 76% 1 75.0 14.8 75 75.0 14.8

2 158 146.6 -11.4 11.4 129.4 7% 2 96.6 16.1 89.8 -68.3 68.3 4658.1 43% 96.575 141.3 37.5 89.8 -68.3 68.3 4658.1 43%3 173 161.4 -11.6 11.6 135.1 7% 3 118.7 17.3 112.7 -60.3 60.3 3637.3 35% 118.721 174.4 35.6 178.9 5.9 5.9 34.3 3%4 210 176.1 -33.9 33.9 1147.5 16% 4 143.4 18.8 136.0 -74.0 74.0 5469.8 35% 143.43798 210.0 35.6 210.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0%5 215 190.9 -24.1 24.1 582.0 11% 5 167.5 19.9 162.2 -52.8 52.8 2783.8 25% 167.5145 222.5 25.4 245.6 30.6 30.6 934.5 14%6 199 205.6 6.6 6.6 43.9 3% 6 188.5 20.1 187.4 -11.6 11.6 135.3 6% 188.53308 210.9 9.1 247.8 48.8 48.8 2384.8 25%7 220 220.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0% 7 209.8 20.3 208.6 -11.4 11.4 129.5 5% 209.75914 220.0 9.1 220.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0%8 218 235.1 17.1 17.1 293.3 8% 8 228.9 20.1 230.1 12.1 12.1 145.8 6% 228.86741 220.7 5.4 229.1 11.1 11.1 122.6 5%9 249.9 248.9 226.1

10 264.6 269.0 231.5

11 279.4 289.1 236.8

12 294.1 309.2 242.2

BIAS 0 BIAS -38.0 BIAS 4.0

DAM 20.25 DAM 41.5 DAM 23.5

DCM 695.8 DCM 2422.8 DCM 1162.0

PAME 16.1% PAME 22.1% PAME 12.9% ojo!!!!

Término Lineal

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90

50

100

150

200

250

f(x) = 16.5952380952381 x + 108.821428571429R² = 0.680805235572746