Box Presentation

Post on 18-Jan-2017

9 views 0 download

Transcript of Box Presentation

EMILY COHEN, HARPER GAY, LILLY TAHMASEBI, TAKUYA TAKEDA

COMPANY SNAPSHOT

FOUNDED IN 2005 BY AARON

LEVIE, A STUDENT AT USC

BOX COMPETES IN THE FILE SHARING AND SYNCHRONIZATION

MARKET

BLOOMBERG RANKS BOX THIRD IN THE

MARKET

ON JANUARY 25, 2015 BOX WENT

PUBLIC

$14

IPO INITIAL PRICE

$20.20MARKET OPENING

PRICE

$23.23MARKET CLOSING PRICE

ESTABLISHED A MARKET CAPITALIZATION OF

1.6 BILLION

INDIVIDUAL BUSINESS ENTREPRISE

BOX USES A FREEMIUM BUSINESS MODEL

FREE $10/MO FREE $15/MO VARIES

88% NON-PAYING USERS

AS OF 2015

12% PAYING USERS

61%

3.4 MILLION REGISTERED

USERS60% OF FORBES’

FORTUNE 500 COMPANIES

COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES

SUPERIOR PRODUCT

PARTNERSHIPS WITH LARGER

INDUSTRY PLAYERS

FINANCIAL DIAGNOSIS

2016 2015 2014 2013

ROE -147.65% -68.07% -279.67% -114.23%

Profit Margin -67.05% -84.08% -136% -191.34%

Asset Turnover 0.61 0.44 0.53 0.30

Financial Leverage 3.61 1.84 3.88 1.99

TIE ratio -103.2 -59.4 -37.4 -43.5

STOCK VALUATION ASSUMPTIONS

FORECASTING & CASH BALANCE

CHANGING SG&A COSTS

REVENUE FORECASTING

CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL

VALUATION PROCESS OVERVIEW

TERMINAL VALUE

EARLY YEARS

FORECAST PERIOD

2004 2016

2016 2026

FORECASTING & CASH BALANCE

NEG CASH FLOW

MIN CASH BALANCE

2016

2026

NEW EXISTINGCHANGING SG&A COSTS

REVENUE FORECASTING

NICHE MARKET

EXPECTED TO GROW TO $3.3

BILLION BY 2020

PREDICT BOX TO

GROW ITS MARKET

SHARE TO 30% BY 2019

COMPANY BETA

RISK FREE RATE +

CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL

xEXPECTED MARKET

RETURN -

RISK FREE RATE

RISK FREE RATE

COMPANY BETA

EXPECTED MARKET RETURN

TAKEN FROM NASDAQ 1.44

= S&P 500 INDEX6.19%

2.15%

US TREASURY BOND

TERMINAL VALUE

( CASH FLOW (t) * (1+g) )

(WACC - G)

WE USED THE PERPETUAL GROWTH TERMINAL VALUE

FORMULA IN OUR ANALYSIS

PERPETUAL GROWTH EQUATION MIGHT PRODUCE LARGER THAN

ACTUAL VALUES *

SCENARIO ANALYSIS

BASELINE SCENARIOOFFSET SG&A BY 11% ANNUALLY

REVENUE 30%

NEGATIVE FREE CASH FLOW UNTIL 2026

STOCK PRICE2016

2026

$15.04

-$3.15

IMPACTS ON FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

BOX’S DEBT TO ASSETS RATIO INCREASES 5

FOLD

SELL

OPTIMISTIC SCENARIOOFFSET SG&A BY 15% ANNUALLY

REVENUE 30%

NEGATIVE FREE CASH FLOW UNTIL 2026

STOCK PRICE2016

2026

$15.04

$47.83

IMPACTS ON FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

PROFITS ARE REALIZED IN 2021, 2 YEARS EARLIER THAN IN BASELINE SCENARIO

BUY

PESSIMISTIC SCENARIOOFFSET SG&A BY 5% ANNUALLY

REVENUE 30%

NEGATIVE FREE CASH FLOW UNTIL 2026

STOCK PRICE2016

2026

$15.04

-$69.83

IMPACTS ON FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

PROFITS ARE NEVER REALIZED

CURRENT RATIO <1 IN 2018 -3 IN 2026

SELL

LOOKING TO THE FUTURE