Download - La década de America latina y el caribe, una oportunidad real

Mauricio CárdenasBogotá, septiembre 8 de 2011

La Década de América Latina y el Caribe:

Una Oportunidad Real

http://www.economist.com/node/16990967?story_id=16990967

América Latina y China (2009)

Pobl

ació

n en

mill

ones

PIB

(bill

ones

de

dóla

res

actu

ales

)

Población PIB (USD)

Fuente: World Bank, World Development Indicators (2009)

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.819

00

1906

1912

1918

1924

1930

1936

1942

1948

1954

1960

1966

1972

1978

1984

1990

1996

2002

2008

GDP Per Capita of Selected Regions / US GDP per Capita

LAC/ US

Asian Tigers/ US

Gold Standard Period

Interwar Period

US Recovers

Alliance for

Progress

Imports Substitution

Lost Decade

Washington Consensus

Washington Dissensus

Fuente: Maddison (2009).

¿Comenzará América Latina a cerrar la brecha?

Siete países en la región poseen más del 80% de la población y del PIB

Fuente: World Bank, World Development Indicators (2009)

PIB (USD) LAC &LAC7

GD

P (B

illio

ns c

urre

nt U

SD)

Poblaciones LAC &LAC7

Popu

latio

n in

Mill

ions

3607

Introducción China y América LatinaDemografía y clase mediaNo somos todos igualesReflexiones finales

Contenido

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 By Product (Top 6)

Iron Ore 0 1 2 18 79 Motor Vehiclesa 1 2 1 5 31 Grain 2 4 - - 28 Rolled Steel 3 7 9 25 20 Parts of Motor Vehiclesb 0 1 2 7 19 Cars 0 0 0 3 14

By Sector (Top 6)

Machinery and Transport Eq. 17 53 92 290 550 Non Food Raw Materials 4 10 20 70 211 Mineral Fuelsc 1 5 21 64 189 Chemicalsd 7 17 30 78 150 Light, textile, rubber, minerals, iron 9 29 42 81 131 Miscellaneous 2 8 13 61 114

By Region

Asia 29 78 141 441 835 Europe 13 28 41 96 218 North America 8 19 26 56 117 Latin America 2 3 5 27 91 Africa 0 1 6 21 67

Memorandum Composition of China's Industrial Output (percent)

Heavy Industry 51 53 60 68 71 Light Industry 49 47 40 30 29

Importaciones de la China (miles de millones de dólares)

Source: General Administration of Customs; CEIC Note: Top 6 products and sectors as of 2010 a Motor vehicles and chassis; b Parts of motor vehicles and tractors; c Mineral fuels, lubricants, and others; d Chemicals and allied products.

China’s Exports to: China’s Imports from: China’s Trade Balance

with: 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 Argentina 0.0 0.6 6.1 0.3 0.9 6.8 -0.3 -0.3 -0.7

Brazil 0.1 1.2 24.5 0.5 1.6 38.0 -0.4 -0.4 -13.6 Chile 0.1 0.8 8.0 0.0 1.3 17.8 0.0 -0.6 -9.7 Colombia 0.0 0.2 3.8 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.1 1.7 Mexico 0.1 1.3 17.9 0.1 0.5 6.8 0.0 0.8 11.1 Peru 0.0 0.1 3.6 0.1 0.6 6.1 -0.1 -0.4 -2.6 Uruguay 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.1 0.1 1.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 Venezuela 0.0 0.3 3.6 0.0 0.1 6.6 0.0 0.2 -2.9

Comercio entre China y LAC8 (miles de millones US)

Note: All numbers are in billions of USD. Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

Exportaciones a China (% del total exportado)

Source: UN COMTRADENote: LAC7 series is average the seven individual economies

Imports from Argentina Exports to Argentina (USD Millions) (USD Millions)

Comercio con China: Argentina

Source: General Administration of Customs; CEICNote: 12-month rolling sums

Imports from Brazil Exports to Brazil (USD Millions) (USD Millions)


Comercio con China: Brasil

Imports from Chile Exports to Chile (USD Millions) (USD Millions)


Comercio con China: Chile

Mining Manufacturing Services Othera

Output Employment Output Employment Output Employment Output Employment

Argentina 0.2 -0.1 -1.8 -6.3 -0.9 10.3 2.5 -3.9 Brazil 0.6 -0.1 -0.2 -2.4 -4.3 10.6 3.9 -8.1 Chile 0.8 -1.7 -3.4 -6.0 3.0 13.7 -0.4 -6.1 Colombia 0.5 -0.1 -1.5 -2.4 5.0 8.6 -4.0 -6.1 Mexico -0.2 -0.5 0.1 -2.6 1.5 9.1 -1.5 -6.1 Peru 2.4 -0.1 -0.4 -2.5 -3.8 0.6 1.7 2.0 Venezuela 1.4 0.1 -2.8 -5.4 1.7 8.3 -0.3 -3.0

Cambios en las participaciones sectoriales en el producto y el empleo, 2005 vs. 1990

Source: Timmer and Vries (2009) aAgriculture, public utilities, construction

Mining Manufacturing Services Othera Overall Argentina 5.9 4.4 1.0 4.7 2.1 Brazil 4.1 1.2 -1.4 2.2 0.2 Chile 8.6 4.3 1.5 5.1 2.8 Colombia 1.2 0.1 -0.7 0.7 -0.2 Mexico 5.0 2.1 0.1 2.1 1.1 Peru 6.8 4.7 2.4 3.4 2.9 Venezuela 0.2 2.4 -0.7 1.5 -0.1

Crecimiento promedio anual en el producto por trabajador 1990-2005

Source: Timmer and Vries (2009) aAgriculture, public utilities, construction

Mining to Services Manufacturing to Services 1990 2005 1990 2005 Argentina 5.0 9.7 1.3 2.2 Brazil 3.2 6.9 1.2 1.9 Chile 2.9 8.4 1.3 2.0 Colombia 3.4 4.4 1.4 1.7 Mexico 1.4 2.9 0.8 1.1 Peru 3.2 5.7 1.2 1.6 Venezuela 19.6 22.0 2.2 3.3

Source: Timmer and Vries (2009)

Producto por trabajador en la minería y la industria (relativo a los servicios)

Participación de la industria manufacturera en el PIB

Source: Haver; National Official StatisticsNote: Mexico, Peru, Uruguay not seasonally adjusted. Brazil based on nominal data.

LAC: Exportaciones manufactureras por clasificación tecnológica (% exportaciones manufactureras)

Source: Comtrade and own calculation.Note: The technological classification in Resource Based (RB), Low Technology (LT), Medium Technology (MT) and HighTechnology (HT) comes from Lall (2000).

Políticas de Desarrollo Productivo

R&D subsidies Training programs Tax exemption for capital goods High uniform tariffs

Business Climate Educated labor force Basic Infrastructure

Sector-specific quotas Sector - specific subsidies to promote some sector

Rural roads for certain areas Cold storage logistics Food safety controls

Exchange rate policy

R&D subsidies Training programs Tax exemption for capital goods

Business Climate Educated labor force …..

Sector -

Rural roads for certain areas Cold storage logistics Food safety controls

Public Input -P-

Market

Intervention -M-

-H- “ Scope ” -V-


Contenido

Una expansión importante de la clase media

Fuente: Cárdenas, Kharas , Henao (2011). “Latin America’s Emerging Middle Class” Brookings Working Paper.

Without

convergence

With convergence

Own track

record Progressive

Mexico 60 80 86 70 70Uruguay 56 77 82 56 86Costa Rica 52 76 81 52 59Jamaica 47 70 89 47 54Argentina 53 69 70 49 59Chile 46 69 81 54 54El Salvador 47 69 74 47 51Venezuela 40 68 79 91 91Panama 42 64 71 42 46Dom. Rep. 31 63 82 29 33Guatemala 34 59 78 39 37Peru 31 59 79 29 33Brazil 34 53 71 52 52Ecuador 28 49 75 25 29Colombia 25 46 69 22 26Guyana 17 43 83 17 13Honduras 16 39 70 16 16Paraguay 19 39 76 19 31Bolivia 13 31 65 13 13

Size of the middle class as % of population

Country 2005

2030 based on simulationsGrowth Redistribution

La brecha en la calidad educativa reproduce la desigualdad

21

Argentina

AustraliaAustria

Azerbaijan

Belgium

Brazil

BulgariaChile

Colombia

Croatia

Czech Republic DenmarkEstonia

Finland

FranceGermany

Greece

Hong Kong

Hungary

Iceland

Indonesia

Ireland

Israel

Italy

J apan

J ordan

Korea

Kyrgyz Republic

LatviaLithuania Luxembourg

Macao, China

Mexico

NetherlandsNew Zealand

Norway Poland

Portugal

Romania

Slovak Republic

Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Thailand

Tunisia

Turkey

UK

United States

Uruguay

300

350

400

450

500

550

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Expenditure per student, primary (% of GDP per capita)

Mat

hem

atic

s sc

ore

in P

ISA

200

6

Fuente: Mathematics score from Pisa (2006). Expenditure per Student, primary (% GDP) is the most recent data available in WDI (2004 for most of the countries). Public expenditure per student is the public current spending on education divided by the total number of students in the primary level.

Educación privada vs. pública : Rendimiento y estatus socioeconómico

22Fuente: OECD (2006).


Contenido

• Clasifica mercados emergentes de acuerdo a puntajes en cuatro áreas:– Crecimiento entre 1999-2010: Crecimiento del PIB

ajustado por riesgo (crecimiento promedio sobre desviación estándar) y test de stress (desviación de crecimiento 2009 del promedio pre-crisis 1999-2007).

– Resistencia Financiera: Deuda publica externa sobre PIB, deuda externa neta sobre PIB, necesidades de financiamiento sobre ingresos de cuenta corriente y spread de la deuda soberana.

– Record de políticas: Inflación ajustada por riesgo (inflación promedio mas desviación estándar 1999-2010) y promedio móvil de cinco años del superávit primario estructural.

– Desarrollo: Coeficiente Gini, Indice de Desarrollo Humano de Naciones Unidas y los World Governance Indicators (WGI).

El “Brookings Graduation Scorecard”

Latin America: mixed results

Graduation criteria: Growth

Graduation criteria: Policy track record

LAC (avg)

Policy track record disaggregated: Cyclically Adjusted Primary Fiscal Balance

LAC (avg)

Graduation criteria: Financial Resilience

Graduation criteria: Development

Development disaggregated: Gini

LAC (avg)

Development disaggregated: Human Development

Development disaggregated: Governance

Worldwide Sample: WGI Overall Governance vs. GDP per capita

Sources: WGI: A Summary of Data, Methodology and Analytical Issues,” by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, September 2010 – www.govindicators.org & World Bank WDI, 2011; Note: Countries in Latin America are identified. Green indicates changes between 2000 & 2009 of 0.25 or greater, red indicates changes of -0.25 or greater; five ovals reflect 5 different “governance performance” groups according to the level of the x-axis variable. From worst (left-most) to best (right-most) – performing, quasi-performing, potential performers, challenged and not performing

r = 0.76

34

http://www.govindicators.org/

Latin America: WGI Overall Governance vs. GDP per capita

Sources: WGI: A Summary of Data, Methodology and Analytical Issues,” by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, September 2010 – www.govindicators.org & World Bank WDI, 2011; Note: Bubble size is log of population; Green indicates changes between 2000 & 2009 of 0.25 or greater, red indicates changes of -0.25 or greater; five ovals reflect 5 different “governance performance” groups according to the level of the x-axis variable. From worst (left-most) to best (right-most) – performing, quasi-performing, potential performers, challenged and not performing

r = 0.56

35

http://www.govindicators.org/

• Transitoriedad – Altos precios de los productos básicos, bajas

tasas de interés y abundancia de ahorro global no durarán mucho.

• De la confianza a la sobre-confianza– La década de América Latina puede

hacernos dormir en los laureles

• La década del desarrollo implica acción– La agenda pendiente es larga. Educación,

salud, infraestructura y productividad.

Resumen