Visualisation products using COSMO-LEPS: recent upgrades at Arpae-SIMC
Andrea Montani
D. Branchini, C. Marsigli, T. Paccagnella, A. Selvini, F. Siviero
Arpae Emilia-Romagna Servizio IdroMeteoClima, Bologna, Italy
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UEF2018, ECMWF, 5-8 June 2018
Outline
- Operational ensemble system COSMO-LEPS:
- main features (what is old, what is new),
- performance of the system,
- future upgrades (towards 5 km, towards multi-physics).
- Development of COSMO-LEPS based visualization products:
- products on COSMO website,
- probabilistic wind roses,
- “chessboard” maps for Emilia-Romagna region,
- implementation of Italian “chessboard” for National Civil Protection.
- Conclusions and plans.
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About COSMO-LEPS
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● What is it?
It is the Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), based on COSMO-model
and implemented within COSMO (COnsortium for Small-scale Modelling,
including Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, Poland, Romania, Russia, Switzerland)
implemented and maintained by Arpae-SIMC.
Why?
COSMO-LEPS was developed to combine the advantages of global-model ensembles
with the high-resolution details gained by the LAMs, so as to identify the possible
occurrence of high-impact and localised weather events (heavy rainfall, strong
winds, temperature anomalies, snowfall, …).
generation of COSMO-LEPS to improve the forecast of high-impact
weather in the short and early-medium range (up to d+5).
COSMO-LEPS suite @ ECMWF: configuration “oper”(operationally implemented on 5 November 2002 - the first in Europe)
d-1 d d+5d+1 d+2 d+4d+3
older EPS
younger EPS00
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Cluster Analysis and RM identification
4 variables
Z U V Q
3 levels
500 700 850 hPa
2 time steps
Cluster analysis and RM identification
EuropeanArea
Complete Linkage
COSMO-
LEPS
clustering
area
• The suite runs as a “time-criticalapplication” managed by Arpae-SIMC;
• The computer time (57 million BUs for2018) provided by the COSMO partnerswhich are ECMWF member states;
• Δx ~ 7 km; 40 ML; 2 runs per day (00and 12UTC); fcst range: 132h;
• single precision since 1/12/2016 (20 runsin SP are cheaper than 16 runs in DP).
COSMO-
LEPS
integration
domain
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Operational set-up
20 perturbed COSMO-model runs (ICs and 3-hourly BCs from 20
selected ENS members) to generate, “via weights”, probabilistic
output; start at 00 and 12UTC; t = 132h.
1 deterministic run (ICs and 3-hourly BCs from ECMWF HRES) to
“join” deterministic and probabilistic approaches; start at 00 and 12
UTC; t = 132h.
Relocation
COSMO-LEPS was “cloned” e relocated over different regions in the
framework of European Projects (FP6 Preview – WP Windstorms) and WMO
Projects (FROST-2014 for the Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia).
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Dissemination
COSMO-LEPS products are operationally disseminated towards:
COSMO countries,
non-COSMO hydro-meteorological weather services,
ECMWF (TIGGE-LAM, EFAS),
private sector,
…..
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Trends in precipitation forecast scores: RPSSMonthly verification performed over the full integration domain (~1400 synop; NGP)
➢Variable: 12h cumulated precipitation (thresholds: 1, 5, 10, 15, 25, 50 mm).
➢Score: Ranked Probability Skill Score (RPSS), updated to November 2017.
➢6-month running mean.
➢ a good forecast system has RPSS > 0; the higher, the better.
Positive trend for all forecast
ranges, especially the longer
ones ( and --- ).
Planned upgrades
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- In agreement with the Consortium strategies, we are assessing the sensitivity of COSMO-
LEPS forecast skill to the use of different parameterisations of moist convection and to
enhanced horizontal resolution.
- From 24/11 to 31/12/2017 and from 1/5 to 31/5/2018, in addition to oper7 (COSMO-LEPS @
7 km), we also ran a test configuration (only at 00UTC), denoted with test5.
oper7 test5
convection scheme Tiedtke members 1-10 IFS-Bechtold
members 11-20 Tiedtke
horizontal resolution 7 km 5 km
grid points 511 x 415 x 40 739 x 599 x 40
time step (s) 66 45
oper7 test5
May 2018 experimentation: oper7 vs test5
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➢Variables: 6h cumulated precipitation (thresholds: 1, 5, 10, 15, 25, 50 mm) and 2-metre temperature.
➢Scores: Ranked Probability Skill Score (RPSS), rmse, bias.
tp06h t2m
➢Precipitation: clear daily cycle in the performance of the model; higher skill of test5, especially for day-
time precipitation.
➢Temperature: still positive bias at all forecast ranges (the model is too warm), but bias reduction at night-
time in test5. Correspondingly, reduction of rmse.
Outline
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- Operational ensemble system COSMO-LEPS:
- main features (what is old, what is new),
- performance of the system,
- future upgrades (towards 5 km, towards multi-physics).
- Development of COSMO-LEPS based visualization products:
- products on COSMO website,
- probabilistic wind roses,
- “chessboard” maps for Emilia-Romagna region,
- implementation of Italian “chessboard” for National Civil Protection.
- Conclusions and plans
COSMO-LEPS on the public web:
Disseminate a set of static maps (jpg/png files) including:
– meteograms over a list of locations,
– probability maps for total precipitation, snowfall, temperature.
Meteograms were operationally implemented on 15 October 2017:
http://www.cosmo-model.org/content/tasks/leps/boxgrams/default.htm
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COSMO-LEPS and the web: meteograms over Bologna
and Frankfurt
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Probabilistic wind roses over fixed locations
“Chessboard” over alert areas• Divide Emilia-Romagna into 8 “homogeneous” alert areas (average size ~3000 km2, 60 grid points per area).
• For each COSMO-LEPS member, consider the corresponding areal means of 24-hour precipitation.
• Compute exceedance probabilities for pre-defined thresholds; colours “quantify” probabilities.
http://www.smr.arpa.emr.it/infomet2/14
Towards an Italian chessboard: the only limit is your imagination my computer time!
In Italy: 20 regions...... but 156 alert areas, selected with different criteria
by the different regions.
The smallest alert area: 193 km2 (in Tuscany)
The largest alert area: 5670 km2 (in Sicily)
http://www.smr.arpa.emr.it/infomet2/
https://simc.arpae.it/scacchieraitalia/ 15
Conclusions
• COSMO-LEPS: well established product complementing ECMWF-ENS where
high-spatial detail is required.
• Improved forecast skill of COSMO-LEPS throughout the years.
• Promising results by the increase of horizontal resolution (7 5 km) and the use of
different parameterisations of moist convection (“multi-physics” approach).
• Probabilistic products are (at last!) considered and can support Civil Protection
decisions.
• Italian chessboard: “optimal” solution would be to blend COSMO-LEPS and ENS
products, but this is probably not appropriate with the present choice of alert areas.
• Keep on working with regional Civil Protection Agencies “to think ensemble” with
them and develop customised products.
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Thanks for your attention!!!
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