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Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved.

Cambios y tendencias económicas y del

mercado automotor: Perú

Encuentro AutomotorGuido Vildozo, Senior Manager, Americas Light Vehicle Sales Forecasts

Lima, 17 de Diciembre 2019

Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved. 2

IHS Markit es una

compañía de ciencia

informática.

Con conocimiento en las

industrias globales mas

relevantes, utilizamos

tecnología y ciencia para

proveer datos, software y

perspectivas que permitan

a nuestros clientes tomar

decisiones informadas.

Confidential. © 2019 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.

2008 2010 2013 20172016


Economía Global

PIB desacelerando rápidamente y antes de lo previsto, debajo de la tendencia

4

Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Aug 2019 Aug 2018

Comercio y incertibumre pesan de manera negativa

PIB Real

Pe

rce

nt


Ventas globales automotrices

2019 vs 2018

5

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

93.7

million

-4.1%Sa

les in

mill

ion

s

89.9

million

Caida a causa de multiples shocks globales

+56,000 +39,000 +16,000

-78,000 -94,000 -181,000

-522,000

-574,000

-1.85 mil.


-184,000-468,000

Note: September 2019 Light Vehicle Sales Forecast.


93.789.9

90.1

104.3

95.6

97.5 99.3

111.8

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

September 2019 forecast September 2018 forecast


Caída en demanda automotriz anticipo desaceleración económica

• Demanda automotriz desincronizada del comportamiento

económico durante los próximos dos años. Dependiente de una

mejora en las ventas de vehículos ligeros en China.

• Devaluación en monedas golpea la demanda automotriz. La

industria esta dolarizada y sufre de la apreciación de la moneda.

• Inestabilidad económica en mercados emergentes. Pesa

particularmente sobre el segmento Premium.

•

• Políticas de emisiones impactan demanda automotriz. Prevemos

ventas mas débiles en India.

6

Source: IHS Markit

Ventas Globales

© 2019 IHS Markit

Mill

ions

Note: September 2019 Light Vehicle Sales Forecast.



Mercados maduros vs mercados en vías de desarrollo

7

43.843.2

42.242.3

43.8 43.242.4

25

30

35

40

45

50

Sep 2019 FC Sep 2018 FC

Source: IHS Markit

Mercados Maduros

© 2019 IHS Markit

Mill

ions

49.946.7

47.8

62.151.854.3

56.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80Sep 2019 FC Sep 2018 FC

Source: IHS Markit

Mercados Emergentes

© 2019 IHS Markit

Mill

ions

Note: September 2019 Light Vehicle Sales Forecast; mature markets: West Europe, US, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Oceania. Note: September 2019 Light Vehicle Sales Forecast.


Fuerzas detrás de la Industria Automotriz Global

8

China Electrificación ADAS Nuevas co. Valores

• Mezcla de segmentos y tecnologías

• Desarrollo de nuevas motorizaciones y transmisiones ha decaído precipitosamente

• Nuevos players tanto en armadoras como proveedores

Note 1: ADAS = advanced driver assistance systems; EV = electric vehicle; AV = autonomous vehicle; ACES = autonomous, connectivity, electrification, & shared vehicles

• Incertidumbre en el proceso de electrificación

• Los valores de la industria (actualmente carros eléctricos y autónomos) es posible cambien

• Cada empresa surca su propio camino en ACES, no todas triunfaran

• Eventos/Políticas que impacten demanda automotriz

• Uniones/sociedades desconocidas como ser FCA/PSA

• Nuevas tecnologías y innovaciones

Riesgos desconocidos

Riesgos conocidos

impredecibles

Riesgos conocidos

Cada empresa enfoca sus ganancias para afrontar estos

retos

Note 2: Electrification is defined as hybrid vehicles such as MHEVs, FHEVs and PHEVs, electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles


China paso de ser la mitad de EUA a ser dos veces su

Mercado en un periodo de 20 años

© 2019 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit

2x

US

China

2007 2019 2027

US-China sales

Dependencia en China determina motorizaciones y

modelo de vehículos


1. Influencia de China—Volumen, tecnología y escala

China tiene influencia tecnológica—no solo volumen

9

Dependency on China volume also dictates global propulsion and platform strategies

½ x

“Impacto Chino”

• Regulaciones Chinas influencian el Desarrollo

tecnológico de muchas empresas

• China tiene mayor similitud en segmentos modelos a

mercados globales lo cual causa se vuelva un centro de

desarrollo importante

Dependency on China volume also dictates global propulsion and platform strategies

11%

14%

14%

17%

24%

25%

35%

37%

39%

Ford

Toyota

Hyundai

R-N-M

BMW

Daimler

Honda

GM

VW

Share of global output based in China, 2025

16.1 7.9 16.817.0 25.2 32.3


China representa el 40% de los programas nuevos lanzados el 2019Anticipamos próximamente su política energética tenga un mayor rol global en motorizaciones

10

79 6898 95

136 121155

134170

220196

144183

123169 172

90 99

140118

132122

115119

130

175181

150

129

151

134105

88 73

88101

93

7875

63

83

8986

83 64

8070

75

2624

3523

38

2523

33

30

3833

27 3533

3434

3832

38

30

43

3136

29

28

2745

48 50

3538

36

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Chin

a’s

share

Num

be

r o

f la

un

ch

es

J/K NA EU Others China China's share

Lanzamientos global en produccion



Electrificacion

Definición de Electrificación

11

ICE

Nissan Kicks

Hybrid-Full

Toyota Corolla

ICE: Start/Stop

Jeep Renegade

Hybrid-Plug In

Volvo XC60

BEV

Tesla Model 3

FCV

Toyota Mirai

Hybrid-Mild

MB C200 EQ Boost


2. Electrificación representa 58% del mercado global el 2030

12

94%

42%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Mill

on

es

ICE & ICE S/S MHEV FHEV PHEV Electric Fuel Cell

Producción Global por tipo de propulsión

58%



Sistema de propulsión por Región/Cluster de Empresas

13

Europa y China lideran electrificación

Producción 2030

Electric

MHEV

FHEV

ICEICE S/S

PHEV

24%

22%

9%3%

42%

China

21%

19%

9%4%

47%

Europa

33%

12%10%

24%

22%

Japon/Korea

66%9%

7%

5%12%

Norte America

Source: IHS Markit

60% 59%

8%

34%

40% 41%

92%

66%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Asian 4 Detroit 3 German 3 Others

ICE Electrification

Producción 2030

Note: Electrification is defined as hybrid vehicles such as MHEVs, FHEVs and PHEVs, electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

Source: IHS Markit


Definición de Autónomos por SAE-Sociedad de Ingenieros AutomotricesClasificación global

14

L5 – Full automation

L0 – No automation

L1 – Driver assistance

L2 – Partial automation

L3 – Conditional automation

L4 – High automation

Tiene sistemas de advertencia

Se parquea solo

Cruzero automatico

Require intervencion del chofer

No requiere chofer la mayoria del

tiempo

No requiere chofer

ADAS

Autonomo

Automatizado

SAE automation classification levels



© 2019 IHS Markit

3. Pronostico de autónomos por Empresa

15


Evolución de “mobilidad compartida”

16


Diferencias en uso de capital y recursos

• Hay inversiones en electrificación, movilidad compartida y vehículos

autónomos que permiten la formación de nuevas empresas y modelos de

negocios:

• Menor dependencia en bienes capitales (plantas)

• Mayor libertad para formar alianzas y/o estrategias

• Diferentes ciclos tecnológicos (5 años para negocios actual)

• Sector tradicional automotriz:

• Presion crece para mejorar eficiencia y contener costes

• Distribucion de capital ya asignado dado ciclos de negocios

• Dificultad en atraer talento

4. Compañías nuevas vs compañías tradicionales

17

Desarrollo de nuevas compañías

impacta:

• Capital, recursos y atención a nuevos

modelos de negocio

• Énfasis del negocio revuelve en

generar innovación

• Transición será difícil par algunos e

imposible para otros



ICE

Fullhybrid

BEV

Chassis/wheels & tires

Climate

Interior/seating/safety

BIW/glass

Powertrain/driveline

Electrical/electronics

Battery/E-Motor/charge

5. Valor del eco-sistema de un vehículo

18

Valores relativos de los diferentes costes de manufactura

Impacto:

• Proveedores existentes deben de

adaptarse, los nuevos tienen una

ventaja

• Electrificación da mayor importancia a

paquetes de batería, carga, clima y

ADAS

• Partes del chasis, motor y tren son

alterados o eliminados

• Ritmo de transición desconocido y

incertidumbre en nuevas demandas del

cliente

~60%

Source: Analysis based upon IHS Markit and industry estimates


© 2019 IHS Markit

~26%

~16%


Ventas de Vehículos Ligeros en América LatinaMargen de error 2019 y perspectivas de crecimiento

Pais CY 2017 CY 2018 P'18 CY 2019 P'19 CY 2020 P'20

CY 2019

Dic18 MOE '19

Argentina 860,158 786,649 -8.5% 432,506 -45.0% 335,787 -22.4% 510,604 -15.3%

Brazil 2,175,777 2,465,684 13.3% 2,659,684 7.9% 2,767,217 4.0% 2,710,500 -1.9%

Chile 371,053 420,043 13.2% 367,953 -12.4% 352,738 -4.1% 421,750 -12.8%

Colombia 237,421 249,464 5.1% 259,481 4.0% 274,389 5.7% 245,689 5.6%

Ecuador 100,727 130,336 29.4% 125,050 -4.1% 123,004 -1.6% 130,455 -4.1%

Mexico 1,532,632 1,425,404 -7.0% 1,315,042 -7.7% 1,280,559 -2.6% 1,465,987 -10.3%

Peru 167,305 145,284 -13.2% 150,025 3.3% 155,104 3.4% 161,952 -7.4%

19


Perspectivas económicas - Peru

20


2.5%

3.3%

4.1% 4.1% 4.0%

2.4% 2.4% 2.6%

3.4%3.9%

3.1% 3.1%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Real GDP growth

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Consumer price inflation

0

1

2

3

4

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Exchange rate per USD

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Current Account Balance as a % of GDP

Real GDP Growth Consumer price inflation

Exchange rate per USD Current-account balance as % of GDP

Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved. 21

0

50

100

150

200

250

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mile

s

Ventas de Vehiculos Ligeros (SAAR) - Peru


Perú Venta Vehículos Ligeros

22

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Sales Change


Peru Top-10 Market Share

23

Toyota Hyundai Kia Suzuki Nissan Renault Chevrolet Mazda Mitsubishi VW Others

2012 18.8% 16.2% 10.9% 5.3% 8.9% 1.5% 10.9% 1.1% 1.4% 4.0% 21.1%

2018 17.6% 14.6% 10.6% 5.9% 4.8% 3.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 2.9% 29.6%

2019 19.1% 12.8% 9.3% 3.3% 4.6% 3.9% 5.8% 2.9% 3.7% 3.4% 31.3%

2020 19.6% 13.7% 9.4% 2.8% 4.2% 4.1% 5.5% 2.7% 3.4% 3.2% 31.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%


Peru Bodytype

24

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

SUV Sedan Hatchback Van Pickup MPV Chassis-Cab Coupe Wagon Roadster Convertible

Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All Rights Reserved. 25Source: IHS Automotive

Chassis-Cab

Convertible

Coupe

Hatchback

MPV

PickupRoadster

Sedan

SUV

Van

Wagon

Industry 2017

Industry 2025

Toyota 2017

Toyota 2025

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Portfolio Age

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Toyota Brand YOY Industry YOY

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Hilux Yaris Etios RAV4 Avanza Others

Peru Ventas Ligeros - Toyota


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Portfolio Age

Chassis-Cab

Convertible

Coupe

Hatchback

MPV

PickupRoadster

Sedan

SUV

Van

Wagon

Industry 2017

Industry 2025

Hyundai 2017

Hyundai 2025

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Accent Grand i10 Tucson i20 Elantra Others

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Hyundai Brand YOY Industry YOY

Peru Ventas Ligeros - Hyundai


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Portfolio Age

Chassis-Cab

Convertible

Coupe

Hatchback

MPV

PickupRoadster

Sedan

SUV

Van

Wagon

Industry 2017

Industry 2025

Kia 2017

Kia 2025

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Kia Brand YOY Industry YOY

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Rio Picanto Cerato Sportage Bongo Others

Peru Ventas Ligeros - Kia


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Portfolio Age

Chassis-Cab

Convertible

Coupe

Hatchback

MPV

PickupRoadster

Sedan

SUV

Van

Wagon

Industry 2017

Industry 2025

Chevrolet 2017

Chevrolet 2025

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Chevrolet Brand YOY Industry YOY

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

N300 Sail Spin Prisma Spark Others

Peru Ventas Ligeros - Chevrolet


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Portfolio Age

Chassis-Cab

Convertible

Coupe

Hatchback

MPV

PickupRoadster

Sedan

SUV

Van

Wagon

Industry 2017

Industry 2025

Nissan 2017

Nissan 2025

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Versa Frontier Kicks Sentra Qashqai Others

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Nissan Brand YOY Industry YOY

Peru Ventas Ligeros - Nissan


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Portfolio Age

Chassis-Cab

Convertible

Coupe

Hatchback

MPV

PickupRoadster

Sedan

SUV

Van

Wagon

Industry 2017

Industry 2025

Renault 2017

Renault 2025

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Renault Brand YOY Industry YOY

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Duster Logan Duster Oroch Master Captur Others

Peru Ventas Ligeros - Renault


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Portfolio Age

Chassis-Cab

Convertible

Coupe

Hatchback

MPV

PickupRoadster

Sedan

SUV

Van

Wagon

Industry 2017

Industry 2025

Mitsubishi 2017

Mitsubishi 2025

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

L200 ASX Montero Outlander Eclipse Cross Others

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Mitsubishi Brand YOY Industry YOY

Peru Ventas Ligeros - Mitsubishi


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Portfolio Age

Chassis-Cab

Convertible

Coupe

Hatchback

MPV

PickupRoadster

Sedan

SUV

Van

Wagon

Industry 2017

Industry 2025

VW 2017

VW 2025

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

VW Brand YOY Industry YOY

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Gol Tiguan Fox Amarok Jetta Others

Peru Ventas Ligeros - Volkswagen

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Disclaimer

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2018 Spring Automotive Client Briefing - CITY

Guido Vildozo, Senior Manager

+1 781 301 9037

[email protected]

Christopher Hopson, Manager

+1 781 301 9107

[email protected]

Roberto Barros, Senior Analyst

+55 19 3578 1221

[email protected]

João Rebouças, Market Analyst

+55 19 3578 1219

[email protected]

Nicholas Hess, Market Analyst

+1 248 728 6985

[email protected]

Thank you, Muchas Gracias

Muito Obrigado!

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