V Foro de Política Económica y Mercado de Capitales

V Foro de Política Económica y Mercado de Capitales Los inversionistas extranjeros como motor del desarrollo de los mercados emergentes

Securities Services

Armanda Mago

Cluster Head Latam

[email protected]

Agenda

1. Introducción – Citi en los Mercados de Capitales

2. Participación de extranjeros en mercados emergentes

3. Factores clave que incentivan la inversión de extranjeros

4. En dónde estamos y Qué más podemos hacer?

1

Citi facilita la inversión extranjera en los mercados de capitales globales y particularmente en los emergentes,

cubriendo 105 mercados a nivel global y mas del 95% de la capitalización de mercado global.

CITI – AMERICAS Argentina Brazil Canada Chile Colombia Mexico Panama Peru United States Venezuela

Costa Rica Bermuda Jamaica Uruguay

CITI – EUROPE Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom

Denmark Finland Norway Iceland Malta

ICSDs Clearstream Euroclear

Proprietary Branches Third-Parties

CITI – CEEMEA Bahrain Czech Republic Egypt Hungary Israel Kazakhstan Kuwait Morocco Nigeria Pakistan Poland Romania Russia Slovak Republic South Africa Turkey UAE (ADX) UAE (NASDAQ Dubai) UAE (DFM) Ukraine

Benin Bosnia-Herzegovina: (Sarajevo) Botswana Mauritius Burkina Faso Namibia Croatia Niger Estonia Oman Georgia Palestine Ghana Qatar Guinea-Bissau Saudi Arabia Ivory Coast Senegal Jordan Serbia Kenya Slovenia Latvia Tanzania Lebanon Tunisia Lithuania Togo Macedonia Uganda Mali Zambia Zimbabwe

CITI – ASIA Australia Bangladesh China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia New Zealand Philippines Singapore Sri Lanka Taiwan Thailand Vietnam

Citi a Nivel Global

2

Compromiso con los Mercados de Capitales

Citi: Cobertura Global y Local

Proprietary Sub-Custodians

Citi apoya las iniciativas regulatorias y de infraestructura para facilitar el flujo de inversiones y desarrollo de los

mercados de capitales.

4 Markets 61 Markets

8 Markets 6 Markets

Participación en la Industria Global

International Securities Services

Association (ISSA)

Association of Global Custodians

(AGC)

Securities Market Practice Group

(SMPG)

National Securities Market Practice

Groups

SWIFT Policy Committees

T2S Advisory & Task Force

Citi en Cifras

+20 años ofreciendo servicios de

custodia en Perú y globalmente

+$13 Trillones de activos bajo

custodia

+$100MM Inversión anual en

tecnología

3

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Volumen Negociado Anual US$ millones

Citi en el Mercado de Capitales Peruano

Acompañando el desarrollo del mercado de capitales y el acceso de inversionistas extranjeros al mercado local

1992 1995 - 2000 2001 - 2010 2011 - 2013 2014 - 2015

Lanza

Servicios de

Custodia

Estructura de

cuentas efectivo

para inversionistas

extranjeros

Liquidación

Custodio

con Cavali

Modelo

Liquidación

por Encargo

Préstamo

de Valores

MSCI

Consulta InPeru

Procapitales

2016

Proceso de

Exoneración al

IGK

Implementación de la

Retención a la

Ganancia de Capital

Record

Capitalización

Bursátil $160B

Record

Negociación

Bursátil $7.8B

Lanzamiento

MILA

Perú alcanza

grado de

inversión

Emisión de

letras del

tesoro

Perú se

reinserta en el

mercado

internacional

Market

Makers

Auto-

PreMatch

Auto-

Settlement

Implementación

Liquidación por

Encargo

1ra Emisión

Bonos

Soberanos

Exoneración

IGK

Fuente: MEF, BVL, Cavali. Elaboración Propia

Creación de

Cavali ICLV

4

Agenda


2. Participación de extranjeros en Mercados Emergentes



5

Flujos de Inversión Hacia Emergentes

Los flujos hacia mercados emergentes vienen desacelerándose como resultado de la desaceleración económica

global y menores precios de commodities producidos por países emergentes.

Fuente: IMF, World Economic Outlook: Too Slow for Too Long; Chapter 2, April 2016

6

Profundidad de los Mercados Latinoamericanos

El desarrollar los mercados financieros se vuelve clave para mejorar el manejo de los flujos de capital de una

economía. Los mercados Latinoamericanos tienen el desafio de atraer inversión y competir con el mundo.

Cifras 2015

Capitalización de Mercado

(US$ millones)

Empresas Listadas

Capitalización de Mercado (% PBI)

Valor Negociado (% PBI)

Valor Negociado (US$ billones)

Global 61,781,129 43,539 98.7 169.6 99,760

EEUU 25,067,540 4,381 139.7 230.7 41,399

Asia 21,604,171 16,824 222.0 242.4 51,009

LATAM 1,281,785 1,203 33.6 15.3 559

Peru 56,556 212 29.4 0.8 1.5

Colombia 85,955 69 29.4 4.0 11.6

Mexico 402,253 136 35.2 9.1 103.7

Chile 190,352 223 79.2 8.2 19.7

Brazil 490,534 345 27.6 23.7 420.0

Indicador Definición

Valor Negociado (% de PBI) The value of shares traded is the total number of shares traded, both domestic and foreign, multiplied by their respective matching prices. Figures are single counted (only one side of the

transaction is considered). Companies admitted to listing and admitted to trading are included in the data. Data are end of year values.

Capitalización de mercado de empresas

locales listadas (En US$)

Market capitalization (also known as market value) is the share price times the number of shares outstanding (including their several classes) for listed domestic companies. Investment

funds, unit trusts, and companies whose only business goal is to hold shares of other listed companies are excluded. Data are end of year values converted to U.S. dollars using

corresponding year-end foreign exchange rates.

Empresas locales listadas

Listed domestic companies, including foreign companies which are exclusively listed, are those which have shares listed on an exchange at the end of the year. Investment funds, unit trusts,

and companies whose only business goal is to hold shares of other listed companies, such as holding companies and investment companies, regardless of their legal status, are excluded. A

company with several classes of shares is counted once. Only companies admitted to listing on the exchange are included.

Capitalización de mercado de empresas

locales listadas (% of GDP) Market capitalization (also known as market value) is the share price times the number of shares outstanding (including their several classes) for listed domestic companies. Investment

funds, unit trusts, and companies whose only business goal is to hold shares of other listed companies are excluded. Data are end of year values.

Valor Negociado (En US$)

The value of shares traded is the total number of shares traded, both domestic and foreign, multiplied by their respective matching prices. Figures are single counted (only one side of the

transaction is considered). Companies admitted to listing and admitted to trading are included in the data. Data are end of year values converted to U.S. dollars using corresponding year-end

foreign exchange rates.

Fuente: World Development Indicators, World Bank Group

7

10.8 (*)

(*) 10.8% calculado al incluir 50% de lo negociado por BAP, SCCO y BVN en NYSE

Participación inversionistas extranjeros en Latam

294

609 186

134

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

RV RF

Brasil

Cap Mkdo (USD Bn)

Inv Ext (USD Bn)

Peru incluye GDNs por US$ 3.1 bn.,

sin GDN seria 21%

RF: solo incluye Deuda Gobierno

Stock de Renta Variable y Fija

Volumen Transado Deuda Gobierno (Promedio mensual 2016)

82% 97%

18%

3%

19%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Colombia Chile Peru

Extranjeros

Locales81%

US 13.35 Bn US 9.50 Bn US 1.6 Bn

Fuente: Bolsa de Comercio de Santiago, Bolsa de Valores de Colombia, Cavali, MEF, Citi

Chile Colombia Peru Brasil

RV RF RV RF RV RF RV RF

% Extranjeros 9% 5% 6% 22% 4% 36% 39% 18%

8

Volumen y Composición BVL

6242

1899 515

1024

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Volumen (en millones de $)

Renta Variable Renta Fija

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

76% 80% 81%

69% 67%

54%

10% 8% 7%

15% 18%

29%

15% 12% 12% 16% 15% 16%

Renta Variable Renta Fija Operaciones de Reporte

9

Fuente: Bolsa de Valores de Lima.

El Mercado local tiene competencia …

NYSE (Monto negociado por año en US$ miles)

BVL (Monto negociado por año en US$ miles)

Fuente: Economatica

169,740

16,593

54,943

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2013 2014 2015 Sep-16

BAP BVL SCCO BVL BNV BVL

9,239,971

6,488,162

3,556,500

2,500,000

4,500,000

6,500,000

8,500,000

10,500,000

12,500,000

14,500,000

2013 2014 2015 Sep-16BAP NYSE SCCO NYSE BNV NYSE

667,827

249,466

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

2013 2014 2015 Sep-16

Grana Y Montero BVL

514,055

180,011

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2013 2014 2015 Sep-16

Grana Y Montero NYSE

50 x

300 x

60 x

10

Agenda





11

Factores que Impulsan la Inversion Los Mercados Emergentes compiten por atraer inversiones tanto Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED) como de

portafolio. Sin embargo algunos impulsores o inhibidores pueden diferir por lo tanto hay que echar una mirada

de cerca a la situación del mercado de capitales en particular.

EXTERNOS

Expectativa de Crecimiento (Var %

PBI)

Expectativas de tasas (tasa FED, tasas

locales)

Aversión al Riesgo (Calificación y

Spread Riesgo país)

Índices de Referencia del Mercado

de Valores

INTERNOS

Facilidad de movimiento de flujos de

entrada y salida

Marco Operativo Eficiente (Acceso, organización, infraestructura)

Disponibilidad de Activos y Liquidez

Entorno Tributario Local

Transparencia de Información (Gobierno Corporativo, Formación de Precios)

Régimen de Inversión de

Institucionales / Tamaño y

sofisticación de la industria

12

Agenda





13

Situación de las Condiciones Macro

Perspectivas de Crecimiento, Estabilidad Macroeconómica y Política, Retornos Atractivos y Riesgo Soberanos

presentan condiciones favorables para atraer inversión y alocación de portafolios

Proyecciones

PBI Real % 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Canada 2.2 2.5 1.1 1.2 1.9 2.0

Mexico 1.4 2.2 2.5 2.1 2.5 2.7

Estados Unidos 1.7 2.4 2.6 1.5 2.2 2.1

Turquía 4.2 3.0 4.0 3.2 3.0 3.5

Vietnam 5.4 6.0 6.7 6.0 6.4 6.6

Proyecciones

PBI Real % 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Latino América 3.1 0.6 -0.5 -1.3 1.9 2.7

Peru 5.9 2.5 3.2 3.8 4.4 4.2

Argentina -0.1 -2.8 2.3 -1.2 3.0 3.5

Brasil 3.0 0.1 -3.8 -3.3 1.0 2.0

Chile 4.0 1.9 2.3 1.7 2 2.5

Colombia 4.9 4.4 3.1 2.2 2.8 3.2

Panamá 8.3 6.0 5.8 5.8 6.1 5.2

Perú

sobresaliendo

de sus

comparables

Niveles de

Riesgo por

encima de

Grado de

Inversión

Crecimiento

atractivo en

comparación a

mercados

desarrollados

Fuente:Bloomberg

Rating de Crédito Soberano ME

País Moody's Fitch S&P

Perú A3 BBB+ BBB+

México A3 BBB+ BBB+

Venezuela Caa3 CCC CCC

Brasil Ba2 BB BB

Colombia Baa2 BBB BBB

Chile Aa3 A+ AA-

Argentina Ca B B-

Panamá Baa2 BBB BBB

Rating de Crédito Soberano ME

País Moody's Fitch S&P

China Aa3 A+ AA-

India - BBB- BBB-

Corea del Sur Aa2 AA- AA

Russia Ba1 BBB- BB+

Turquía Ba1 BBB- BB

Vietnam B1 B+ BB-

PBI de economías desarrolladas y latinoamericanas Riesgo Soberano

14

Evolución de Aspectos Micro a través de los años Formal stock market regulatory authorities actively monitor market (e.g., SEC, FSA, SFC)

Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia Peru

2006 Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass




Free and well-developed equity market Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia Peru

2006 Pass Pass Not Met Not Met Not Met

2010 Pass Pass Restricted Restricted Not Met

2015 Pass Pass Pass Pass Not Met

2016 Pass Pass Pass Pass Not Met

Stock Lending is permitted Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia Peru

2006 Pass Pass Pass Not Met Pass

2010 Pass Pass Pass Not Met Pass

2015 Pass Pass Restricted Restricted Restricted

2016 Pass Pass Restricted Restricted Restricted

Liquidity - Sufficient broad market liquidity to support sizeable global investment

Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia Peru

2006 Pass Pass Pass Not Met Not Met

2010 Pass Pass Pass Not Met Not Met

2015 Pass Pass Pass Restricted Not Met

2016 Pass Pass Pass Restricted Not Met

Short sales permitted Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia Peru

2006 Pass Pass Restricted Not Met Pass

2010 Pass Pass Restricted Not Met Pass

2015 Pass Restricted Restricted Restricted Restricted

2016 Pass Restricted Restricted Restricted Restricted

Fuente:FTSE Quality of Markets Criteria (Americas) as at September 2006, 2010, 2015 & 2016.

15

Situación de los Mercados de Latam al 2016

Fuente: FTSE Quality of Markets Criteria (Americas) as at September 2016.

16

Qué más podemos hacer …

Aspectos Tributarios

Alineamiento con otros mercados al tratamiento de ITF para no

domiciliados y reducir distorsiones.

Ejm. Colombia exonera a cuentas usadas para liquidación

y compensación. Brasil lo elimino desde el 2007. Chile

no tiene.

Mercado de Deuda

Evaluar incentivos y transparencia en precios en el mercado de deuda

soberana local. Extender la exoneración del IGK a instrumentos

de deuda corporativa

Ejm. Colombia las operaciones de deuda

soberana requiere registro de todas sus operaciones de

deuda y mantiene un mercado líquido

Gobierno Corporativo

Regulador con facultad para dar lineamientos de información y votación

para valores listados

Ejm. Brasil incluyo en su LGS facultad del regulador y

trabajando en voto remoto para facilitar participación

Préstamo de Valores

Inversionistas extranjeros requieren visibilidad a sus préstamos y

colaterales. Incorporar la figura del custodio en la liquidación de ventas

en corto.

Ejm. Colombia préstamo no esta atado a venta en corto y

custodio participa en la liquidación. Chile permite

garantía con T-bills en DTC

Se requieren cambios estructurales que aumenten la gama de activos invertibles, que generen incentivos y que

faciliten la negociación en la plaza local.

17

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