The Future Of Social Networks 2011 V2

16 de Abril de 2011

Marco [email protected]

El futuro de las Redes Sociales

El futuro de las redes sociales 2011 Página 2

1.Introducción: una visión de la evolución del Social Web en 5 etapas

2.Valor y negocio en los SM: La identidad transparente

3. La otra identidad en la red: la ITentidad transparente

4. Transparencia y negocio: la empresa transparente

5. Un mundo transparente: IOT y Smarter Planet

Agenda


Las 5 eras del Social Web

The Future Of The Social Web: Portable IDs Catalyze A Power Shift To Consumersby Jeremiah K. Owyang, Forrester Research, 2009



Las eras y sus hitos

Feb-2004

Aug-2003 Jul-2006

Jan-2006Jul-2008

May-2008

Dic-2008

Dic-2010

Nov-2007

Feb-2010

Jan-2011

Jun-Ago-2010

The Future Of The Social Web: Portable IDs Catalyze A Power Shift To Consumers

by Jeremiah K. Owyang, Forrester Research, 2009


~600Mde usuarios

2.000 M$ (+60% CAGR)

4 billionesde usuarios de móvil

~2M de tablets en 2011

Los smartphones~ 27%Superarán los desktop en

2013

1 Trillon de dispositivos conectados

~5-10% de la publicidad on-line en redes sociales

~92% de las compañías (EEUU) tiene presencia en Facebook y

el 72% en Twitter

Un punto de partida…


~150 M usuarios y ~155Mde Tweets diarios

30.000 M$ en 2010 un 98% de la

publicidad



Un hito y una realidad


ARPU ~ 3,2 $

17% de CAGR del mercado de la publicidad on-line en (3 años)¿Pueden multiplicar x10 el ARPU Facebook y Twitter?

… y grandes expectativas


Valor estimado ~ 65.000 M$~ ARPU x 33

ARPU ~ 0,9 $ Valor estimado ~ 5.000 M$~ ARPU x 29

ARPU ~ 19,4 $24% CAGR

ARPU ~ 6,4 $



… y grandes expectativas ($$$)

Publicidad:� Audiencia y retención� Conocimiento de los usuarios

Contenido:� Pago por contenido

� Pago por suscripción

Experiencia:� Bienes virtuales, juegos en las redes sociales

� Premium & cloud services,

Social E-commerce:� clubes privados

� Plataformas de venta,

Inteligencia:� Market research

� Customer support

� Privacidad

Tecnología:� Gestión única de la identidad digital

� Capturar el stack

3 modelos: no cobrar nunca un duro al usuario, vender productos chungos o vender información del usuario. (Duff McDonald)

Dire

cto

Indirecto


Un mundo TransparenteEl nuevo contexto: un mundo transparente

Data

Service

Transparent ID

Transparent Company & institutions

Transparent world

Data

Transparencia


Un mundo transparente

La identidad transparente


SocialMedia como hub: perspectiva de usuario

“if the news is important, it will find me”

Un estudiante sobre la información de la campaña de Obama

NYU, marzo 2008

“Search is how Google began, and it's at the heart of what we do

today.”Google Company Overview 2010

“The window to the world can be covered

by a newspaper. “Stanislaw Lec (1909-1966)

~00~00’’ LibertadLibertadThe digital encyclopediaThe digital encyclopedia

<90<90’’ VerdadVerdadThe way it wasThe way it was

>10>10’’ UnicidadUnicidadThe meThe me--spheresphere

La Identidad transparente


Más allá de la información: Social ObjectsUn vídeo…

DuraciónContenidoAutorBrandFormatoCalidad…



Más allá de los contenidos: Social ObjectsUn vídeo en una red social



Social Objects y open graph


“hacer que el mundo fuera de Facebookfuncione igual que dentro de Facebook”

The Power of Facebook Connect: ...the social Web requires fundamental building blocks. Facebook provides these essential tools, including identity for a great registration system, and immediate access to 300 million active global users.


La Identidad transparenteMi yo transparente…


¿Un sólo yo?



¿Un sólo yo?: la lucha por la identidad

•¿Quién me representa?

•¿Cuántos contextos sociales tengo?

•¿Quién decide qué atributos tienemi Social Context?

•¿Quién organiza los atributos de mi Social Context?

•¿Quién los explota?


¿una identidad integrada?


Valor de la ID: moneyStrandsUn ejemplo no-social del valor del ID




• Facebook Connect may increase your site's traffic 30-100%

El valor de la identidad/conexión (1/3): Site traffic & registration

• Traffic: For each story published in Facebook, we see roughly 3 clicks back to the site. Nearly half the stories in the Stream get clicked on.

• Registration: sites that use Facebook Connect as an alternate to account registration have seen a 30-200% increase in registration on their sites

• Engagement: sites with Facebook Connect see a 15-100% increase in reviews and other user generated content

2009

2009


La Identidad transparenteEl valor de la identidad/conexión (1/3): Referral traffic: atención

~15 mins

~30 mins

~5 mins


El valor de la identidad/conexión (1/3): Referral traffic: la tendencia


2011


El valor de la identidad/conexión (2/3): Open Graph & Analytics



El valor tiene la identidad/conexión (3/3)Social Commerce y la conexión: dos ejemplos


When someone shares an event with their friends through social media, this action results in real dollars. Our most recent data shows that over the past 12 weeks, one share on Facebook equals $2.52, a share on Twitter equals $0.43, a share on LinkedIn equals $0.90, and a share through our ”email friends”application equals $2.34.

On an aggregate […] each share equals $1.78 in ticket sales. We’re seeing this number improve every week.

blog.eventbrite.com/social-commerce


El valor tiene la identidad/conexión (3/3)Social Commerce y la conexión: dos ejemplos


370M usuarios

Seller-BuyerBuyer-Buyer..

The Role of Social Networks in Online Shopping: Information Passing, Price of Trust, and Consumer Choice


La patente de FBook: A method for displaying a news feed in a social network environment is described. The method includes generating news items regarding activities associated with a user of a social network environment and attaching an informational link associated with at least one of the activities, to at least one of the news items, as well as limiting access to the news items to a predetermined set of viewers and assigning an order to the news items. The method further may further include displaying the news items in the assigned order to at least one viewing user of the predetermined set of viewers and dynamically limiting the number of news items displayed.

23-2-2010

La guerra por la Identidad: Data portability


La respuesta de GoogleGoogle's Contacts API will need to offer

reciprocity. Facebook did not offer reciprocity therefore losing out on

Google's Contacts API, which makes it easy to import your list of friends' and

coworkers' email addresses into another service.

The addition of the Terms of Service for the Contacts API, read: "Google

supports data portability. By accessing Content through the Contacts Data API or Portable Contacts API for use in your service or application, you are agreeing

to enable your users to export their contacts data to other services or

applications of their choice in a way that's substantially as fast and easy as

exporting such data from Google Contacts, subject to applicable laws.“

10-11-2010


Facebook Fallacy: Open Graph = Google Killer

OpenUpWeb, 2010

La guerra por la Identidad: el problema de Google

Preferencia de uso de social ID


Linked Data


Mientras: servicios de gestión del Social Context



Google Vs Facebook: dos visiones de futuroDos formas de proteger el negocio


La identidad es la plataforma

Laplataforma es la identidad

Google indexa cualquier página webmientras Facebook sólo considera las que

tienen un tag en Open Graph.

Servicios centrados en la identidad(mis datos)

Servicios centrados en la plataforma

(todo Fsocial)Marketers



La ITentidad transparente



Transparent ID

¿Está la identidad digital completa?



Un mundo en transición: Google en otro frente

2007 2008 2009 2010

Early adopters Mass Market

300%

1800%



La obsolencia de una clásico



Dos mundos en convergencia



Los proveedores de Software del futuro

100M$ en 2010862% CAGR

1782 M$ en 2010131% CAGR


Dos visiones del ITentidad


Nuestros sistemas-nuestros dispositivos, Si lo quieres lo tomas, y si no, no.

E.Dans

La plataforma que más crece, la más abierta en la que un desarrollador puede hacer lo que quiera sin pedir

permiso a nadieE.Dans


Un tercero en discordia: Los inventores del CloudY los líderes de los servicios premium


Tus ficheros son tu identidad


Conectado e integrado



Identidad móvilTuenti: Investor Conference 13-14 Abril 2011



La Identidad transparenteUna visión integral de la identidad en la redMúltiples modelo, múltiples luchas

IT oldfashioned

IT Cloud

Social ID +

Premium Services

Mobile ID MarketerServices



La empresa transparente


Customer Relationship management: sCRM

La Empresa transparente

Sentiment and Social Analytics

Social HDeskrelated processes

Listening & Social Network Analysis


Social Analyticsrelated processes

Social HDeskrelated processes

Social commerce related processes


Social Analytics


Social Network Analysis: social network roles



Location:

Affiliation:

Expertise:

IBM Affinity:

Username:

Profile:

Digital Footprint:

Rank:Previous Rank:

4 posts /month

2,935 followers

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Georgetown, Maine

1NA

Linux Solutions

242 connections

406 friends


“I'm XXXXX I live in Maine, but travel a lot. I helped found XXXXX in 2002, and I was born and raised a Red Sox fan. My job is to help companies understand developers better, and to help developers, period.”

Principal Analyst & Cofounder

Cloud Computing

Neutral

Reach» Site traffic» Followers/Friends» Number of social media venues

Authority» Online rank» Number of backlinks» Respect/standing within community

Engagement» # of Relevant messages» Frequency of conversation

Connectivity» Bloggers blogroll» Cross-topic connectivity» Influence flow

Reach» Site traffic» Followers/Friends» Number of social media venues

Authority» Online rank» Number of backlinks» Respect/standing within community

Engagement» # of Relevant messages» Frequency of conversation

Connectivity» Bloggers blogroll» Cross-topic connectivity» Influence flow

Social network roles: Linux


Most Power topics are heavily interconnected. Server performance, cost and affordability are key drivers of positivityListening: lanzamiento e impacto Power7TM

Cost/Affordability

Virtualization

Industry News Installation/Configuration

Support

MicroprocessorComparison

Operability/User Preference

Product Documentatio

n

ServerPerformance

SoftwareInteroperability

Energy Efficiency

��

Positive

Negative

Neutral



Social Analytics: Más allá del positivo y negativo



La Empresa transparenteSocial Analytics: Prediciendo el futuro


News Sources

Customized Content� Internal Customer Data� CRM content� Web Communication� Web Sites� Traditional News Sources

Social Media(Boards / Blogs)

� Dimensional Analysis

� Filtering

� Voice

� Keyword Search

� Dimensional Navigation

� Drill Through to Content

� Relevant Topics

� Associated Themes

� Ranking and Volume

� Relationship Tables

� Relationship Matrix

� Relationship Graph

1 COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS

3 SENTIMENT

4 EVOLVING TOPICS2 AFFINITY ANALYTICS


Business Drivers

Customer CareCustomer CareCorporate ReputationCorporate Reputation

Campaign EffectivenessCampaign Effectiveness

Competitive AnalysisCompetitive Analysis

Product InsightProduct Insight

Social Analytics & BI: una disciplina nueva

1

2

3

4


SAS Nielsen Radian6 IBM

Source of

Analysis

Facebook, Twitter and other Social Media publicly availablesources

Blogs and blog posts

Discussion forums

Video and images

Newsgroups

Analytics

Sentiment

Drill Down Filtering Capabilities

Real-time

Predictive

Differentiators

Scalability

Affinity

Evolving Topics



IBM Social Analytics & BI: diferenciadores


Affinity


Evolving Topics

IBM Social Analytics & BI: diferenciadores



El nuevo contexto


Un mundo Transparente


Our world is becoming

INSTRUMENTED.

Our world is becoming

INTERCONNECTED.

Virtually all things and processes are becoming

INTELLIGENT.

15 petabytes of new information are being generated; high-resolution weather forecasts for areas as fine as 1 to 2 square kilometers

2 billion people on the internet by 2011, 4 billion mobile phone, 1 trillion connected devices

30 billion RFID; 1 billion camera phones; 85% of new automobiles will contain event data

Smarter Planet


Ya llegado: Contenido digital en la tierra

Smarter Planet


Por venir: +Contenido digital en la tierra

Smarter Planet


Adidas miCoach, Nike+, sensor devices get people exercising

1/27/2010

Medicina, pertencia…

Contenido real en la red

Smarter Planet


Las personas son sensores

Smarter Planet


Smarter Planet


About a dozen wirelesssensors are hooked up tothe electricity and watersystems and other things in the house. […] The updates are distributed to a display in my house, and as a stream of messages on Twitter,

red_ferries

LovellTelescope

PiMPY3WASH

pothos

tweetawatt

towerbridge

Riverthames

Tweeting heart

...los coches también…

...y las plantas

Los sensores son sociales

Smarter Planet


Los sensores hacen amigos

Smarter Planet


Smarter powerChange energy consumption patterns, manage loads better, preserve our environment.

Smarter trafficHelp cut traffic jams, reduce emissions, increase use of public transport.

Smart shoppingUse intelligence to eliminate inefficiency and waste and better serve the empowered consumer

Smarter oilAs we move toward a renewable future, shape our hydrocarbon present to be more efficient, affordable and protective of the environment

Smarter citiesAddress congestion, pollution, health, safety, sustainability, energy use and water management.

Smarter waterMonitor, measure andanalyze water ecosystems, and provide a single, reliable, up-to-the minute and actionable view of water use.

Safer citizensAnalyse crime patterns and CCTV and improve emergency response and border controls

Smarter communicationsBuild smart networks which can identify instrumented things and collect relevant data from them.

Smarter Planet

++

=


El papel de las redes sociales

Smarter Planet


Smarter Planet


Smarter Planet

Las ciudades transparentes


+ ID digital+ relevante

+I(T)D+ integrada

+ relación con el mundo, las cosas y

los otros

¿Smarter future?

El futuro de las redes sociales 2011 Página 7016 de Abril de 2011

Marco Laucelli

[email protected]

IBM

Gracias

The Future Of Social Networks 2011 V2

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