Service économique et statistique Alain SAUVANT MINISTERIO DE FOMENTO CENTRO DE ESTUDIOS Y...
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Transcript of Service économique et statistique Alain SAUVANT MINISTERIO DE FOMENTO CENTRO DE ESTUDIOS Y...
Serviceéconomique et statistique
Alain SAUVANT
MINISTERIODE FOMENTO
CENTRO DE ESTUDIOSY EXPERIMENTACIÓNDE OBRAS PÚBLICAS
DIRECCIÓN GENERALDE PLANIFICACIÓN YCOORDINACIÓN TERRITORIAL
SECRETARÍA DE ESTADO DE INFRAESTRUCTURAS Y PLANIFICACIÓN
Encuentro:
“Intermodalidad
de viajeros”Interurban passenger transport
planification
Alain SauvantMadrid, 4 de noviembre de 2004
Service économiqueet statistique
Interurban passenger transport planification
An overview of methods currently used in France
Serviceéconomique et statistique
Alain SAUVANT
Outline of presentation
Multimodal national monitoring scheme
Multimodal strategic corridors and nodes monitoring scheme
2025 traffic forecasts
2025 infrastructure maps
Serviceéconomique et statistique
Alain SAUVANT
National monitoring scheme
To follow aggregate transport policy relevant indicators in France
Such as national road traffic, rail transport, prices, quality of service, modal split or the environment
Passenger and freight
With « out of track » indicators
Serviceéconomique et statistique
Alain SAUVANT
Passenger cars (veh.km on all road networks)
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Cars
all
netw
ork
s (
Bill
ion v
eh.k
m)
Real
Central forecast
Model on real data
Draft document
Serviceéconomique et statistique
Alain SAUVANT
Road transport CO2 emissions
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Em
issio
ns C
O2 R
oad (
MtC
O2)
Real
Central forecast
Model on real data
Draft document
Serviceéconomique et statistique
Alain SAUVANT
Strategic corridors and nodes monitoring scheme
To follow transport policy relevant indicators in a given corridor or node in France
Passenger and freight
Such as traffic, prices, quality of service, environment, safety, accessibility
Serviceéconomique et statistique
Alain SAUVANT
Access to European capitals by air from the French regions
Serviceéconomique et statistique
Alain SAUVANT
2025 Traffic forecasts
Integrated multimodal approach
Econometric models
Passenger and goods traffic
Environment
To be used for project appraisal (rate of return evaluation) in all modes
Serviceéconomique et statistique
Alain SAUVANT
Macroeconomic and transport policy context
GDP growth in France = 1,9 % per yearAgeing populationOil price : 35 $/baril in 2025Exchange rate in 2025 : 1€ = 1$Increase of passenger diesel oil prices
Serviceéconomique et statistique
Alain SAUVANT
Towards smaller road traffic growth
% average annual growth 1980 - 2002 2002 – 2025
National road network
3,5 % 1,8 %
Out of which : Toll motorways
6,2 % 2,8 %
Serviceéconomique et statistique
Alain SAUVANT
Slower domestic air transport growth
% average annual growth
1980 - 2002 2002 - 2025
Domestic passenger air transport
4,4 % 1,7 %
Modélisation logistique de la diffusion du transport aérien intérieur
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Rapport trafic aérien / dépenses de consommation des ménages (réel)
Modèle logistique
Serviceéconomique et statistique
Alain SAUVANT
Continuing passenger rail transport growth
Average annual growth
in %
Pass-km 1980 - 2002 2002 - 2025
Rail 1,5 % 1,8 %
Out of which : TGV (high speed)
ns > 2,6 %
Around 1500 additional km of high speed lines, stable rail prices, increase of taxes on passenger diesel
Serviceéconomique et statistique
Alain SAUVANT
Public sector financing needs by modes per year
Public investments per mode (main interurban terrestrial) annual averages
in France (excluding user funding)
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
1989 to 1993 1994 to 1999 2000 to 2002 Estimationneeds 2003-
2020
Bil
lio
n e
uro
s (
cu
rre
nt)
Total Roads
Total Rail
Total Waterways
Real Needs
Source : from Audit IGF/CGPC
Serviceéconomique et statistique
Alain SAUVANT
State funding needsInvestments (annual averages) in France : State funding
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
1989 to 1993 1994 to 1999 2000 to 2002 Estimationneeds 2003-
2020
Bil
lio
n e
uro
s (
cu
rren
t)
Total Roads
Total Rail
Total Waterways
Real Needs
Source : from Audit IGF/CGPC
Serviceéconomique et statistique
Alain SAUVANT
New infrastructure plans
Common standards for all project evaluations in all modes
Instruction de Robien – Boiteux commission report
A mix of project evaluation and land planning considerations
Serviceéconomique et statistique
Alain SAUVANT
Government infrastructure plan decisions
CIADT of december 2003
Infrastructure plan of 2025
Established a new agency for multimodal funding
Serviceéconomique et statistique
Alain SAUVANT
Outlook
Towards strategic corridors and nodes 2025 traffic and environment forecasts
Towards an urban transport and territories monitoring scheme
Serviceéconomique et statistique
Alain SAUVANT
Link to web sites of monitoring schemes
http://www.equipement.gouv.fr/statistiques/analyses/etudes/transpor/indicateurs2004/somm_indicateurs2004.htm
http://www.equipement.gouv.fr/statistiques/analyses/etudes/etudes_.htm
Strategic nodes and corridors monitoring schemes
National monitoring scheme