Promedio Movil
13
Semana Demanda Pronósti co Error Error Absoluto Error Cuadrático APE APE` 40 80 41 79 42 88 43 58 44 71 45 85 46 79 47 63 48 57 49 50 50 71 51 112 52 53 72.00 -19.00 19.00 361.00 35.85% 26.39% 53 85 67.67 17.33 17.33 300.44 20.39% 25.62% 54 43 71.33 -28.33 28.33 802.78 65.89% 39.72% 55 47 69.00 -22.00 22.00 484.00 46.81% 31.88% 56 48 68.50 -20.50 20.50 420.25 42.71% 29.93% 57 73 64.67 8.33 8.33 69.44 11.42% 12.89% 58 23 58.17 -35.17 35.17 1236.69 152.90% 60.46% 59 116 53.17 62.83 62.83 3948.03 54.17% 118.18% 60 67 58.33 8.67 8.67 75.11 12.94% 14.86% 61 39 62.33 -23.33 23.33 544.44 59.83% 37.43% 62 81 61.00 20.00 20.00 400.00 24.69% 32.79% 63 67 66.50 0.50 0.50 0.25 0.75% 0.75% 64 58 65.50 -7.50 7.50 56.25 12.93% 11.45% 65 51 71.33 -20.33 20.33 413.44 39.87% 28.50% 66 52 60.50 -8.50 8.50 72.25 16.35% 14.05% 67 51 58.00 -7.00 7.00 49.00 13.73% 12.07% 68 65 60.00 5.00 5.00 25.00 7.69% 8.33% 69 56 57.33 -1.33 1.33 1.78 2.38% 2.33% 70 46 55.50 -9.50 9.50 90.25 20.65% 17.12% 71 75 53.50 21.50 21.50 462.25 28.67% 40.19% 72 47 57.50 -10.50 10.50 110.25 22.34% 18.26% 73 69 56.67 12.33 12.33 152.11 17.87% 21.76% 74 59 59.67 -0.67 0.67 0.44 1.13% 1.12% 75 54 58.67 -4.67 4.67 21.78 8.64% 7.95% 76 46 58.33 -12.33 12.33 152.11 26.81% 21.14% 77 44 58.33 -14.33 14.33 205.44 32.58% 24.57% 78 51 53.17 -2.17 2.17 4.69 4.25% 4.08% 79 41 53.83 -12.83 12.83 164.69 31.30% 23.84% 80 77 49.17 27.83 27.83 774.69 36.15% 56.61% 81 69 52.17 16.83 16.83 283.36 24.40% 32.27% 82 54 54.67 -0.67 0.67 0.44 1.23% 1.22% 83 76 56.00 20.00 20.00 400.00 26.32% 35.71% 84 88 61.33 26.67 26.67 711.11 30.30% 43.48%
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Transcript of Promedio Movil
N = 6SemanaDemandaPronsticoErrorError AbsolutoError CuadrticoAPEAPE`4080417942884358447145854679476348574950507151112525372.00-19.0019.00361.0035.85%26.39%538567.6717.3317.33300.4420.39%25.62%544371.33-28.3328.33802.7865.89%39.72%554769.00-22.0022.00484.0046.81%31.88%564868.50-20.5020.50420.2542.71%29.93%577364.678.338.3369.4411.42%12.89%582358.17-35.1735.171236.69152.90%60.46%5911653.1762.8362.833948.0354.17%118.18%606758.338.678.6775.1112.94%14.86%613962.33-23.3323.33544.4459.83%37.43%628161.0020.0020.00400.0024.69%32.79%636766.500.500.500.250.75%0.75%645865.50-7.507.5056.2512.93%11.45%655171.33-20.3320.33413.4439.87%28.50%665260.50-8.508.5072.2516.35%14.05%675158.00-7.007.0049.0013.73%12.07%686560.005.005.0025.007.69%8.33%695657.33-1.331.331.782.38%2.33%704655.50-9.509.5090.2520.65%17.12%717553.5021.5021.50462.2528.67%40.19%724757.50-10.5010.50110.2522.34%18.26%736956.6712.3312.33152.1117.87%21.76%745959.67-0.670.670.441.13%1.12%755458.67-4.674.6721.788.64%7.95%764658.33-12.3312.33152.1126.81%21.14%774458.33-14.3314.33205.4432.58%24.57%785153.17-2.172.174.694.25%4.08%794153.83-12.8312.83164.6931.30%23.84%807749.1727.8327.83774.6936.15%56.61%816952.1716.8316.83283.3624.40%32.27%825454.67-0.670.670.441.23%1.22%837656.0020.0020.00400.0026.32%35.71%848861.3326.6726.67711.1130.30%43.48%855567.50-12.5012.50156.2522.73%18.52%867469.834.174.1717.365.63%5.97%874669.33-23.3323.33544.4450.72%33.65%884965.50-16.5016.50272.2533.67%25.19%898064.6715.3315.33235.1119.17%23.71%9065.3315.2719368.92690.28050.2537MADECMMAPEMAPE`
N = 8SemanaDemandaPronsticoErrorError AbsolutoError CuadrticoAPEAPE`4080417942884358447145854679476348574950507151112525373.50-20.5020.50420.2538.68%27.89%538571.2513.7513.75189.0616.18%19.30%544371.25-28.2528.25798.0665.70%39.65%554766.75-19.7519.75390.0642.02%29.59%564864.75-16.7516.75280.5634.90%25.87%577363.639.389.3887.8912.84%14.73%582366.50-43.5043.501892.25189.13%65.41%5911660.5055.5055.503080.2547.84%91.74%606761.006.006.0036.008.96%9.84%613962.75-23.7523.75564.0660.90%37.85%628157.0024.0024.00576.0029.63%42.11%636761.755.255.2527.567.84%8.50%645864.25-6.256.2539.0610.78%9.73%655165.50-14.5014.50210.2528.43%22.14%665262.75-10.7510.75115.5620.67%17.13%675166.38-15.3815.38236.3930.15%23.16%686558.256.756.7545.5610.38%11.59%695658.00-2.002.004.003.57%3.45%704660.13-14.1314.13199.5230.71%23.49%717555.7519.2519.25370.5625.67%34.53%724756.75-9.759.7595.0620.74%17.18%736955.3813.6313.63185.6419.75%24.60%745957.631.381.381.892.33%2.39%755458.50-4.504.5020.258.33%7.69%764658.88-12.8812.88165.7727.99%21.87%774456.50-12.5012.50156.2528.41%22.12%785155.00-4.004.0016.007.84%7.27%794155.63-14.6314.63213.8935.67%26.29%807751.3825.6325.63656.6433.28%49.88%816955.1313.8813.88192.5220.11%25.17%825455.13-1.131.131.272.08%2.04%837654.5021.5021.50462.2528.29%39.45%848857.2530.7530.75945.5634.94%53.71%855562.50-7.507.5056.2513.64%12.00%867463.8810.1310.13102.5213.68%15.85%874666.75-20.7520.75430.5645.11%31.09%884967.38-18.3818.38337.6437.50%27.27%898063.8816.1316.13260.0220.16%25.24%9065.2515.6414364.81290.29340.2550MADECMMAPEMAPE`
N = 10SemanaDemandaPronsticoErrorError AbsolutoError CuadrticoAPEAPE`4080417942884358447145854679476348574950507151112525373.40-20.4020.40416.1638.49%27.79%538569.9015.1015.10228.0117.76%21.60%544372.60-29.6029.60876.1668.84%40.77%554769.80-22.8022.80519.8448.51%32.66%564866.00-18.0018.00324.0037.50%27.27%577362.9010.1010.10102.0113.84%16.06%582363.90-40.9040.901672.81177.83%64.01%5911660.5055.5055.503080.2547.84%91.74%606767.10-0.100.100.010.15%0.15%613966.70-27.7027.70767.2971.03%41.53%628159.4021.6021.60466.5626.67%36.36%636762.204.804.8023.047.16%7.72%645860.40-2.402.405.764.14%3.97%655161.90-10.9010.90118.8121.37%17.61%665262.30-10.3010.30106.0919.81%16.53%675162.70-11.7011.70136.8922.94%18.66%686560.504.504.5020.256.92%7.44%695664.70-8.708.7075.6915.54%13.45%704658.70-12.7012.70161.2927.61%21.64%717556.6018.4018.40338.5624.53%32.51%724760.20-13.2013.20174.2428.09%21.93%736956.8012.2012.20148.8417.68%21.48%745957.002.002.004.003.39%3.51%755457.10-3.103.109.615.74%5.43%764657.40-11.4011.40129.9624.78%19.86%774456.80-12.8012.80163.8429.09%22.54%785156.10-5.105.1026.0110.00%9.09%794154.70-13.7013.70187.6933.41%25.05%807753.2023.8023.80566.4430.91%44.74%816956.3012.7012.70161.2918.41%22.56%825455.70-1.701.702.893.15%3.05%837656.4019.6019.60384.1625.79%34.75%848857.1030.9030.90954.8135.11%54.12%855560.00-5.005.0025.009.09%8.33%867460.1013.9013.90193.2118.78%23.13%874662.90-16.9016.90285.6136.74%26.87%884963.10-14.1014.10198.8128.78%22.35%898062.9017.1017.10292.4121.38%27.19%9066.8015.1421351.27110.28390.2462MADECMMAPEMAPE`
N = 12SemanaDemandaPronsticoErrorError AbsolutoError CuadrticoAPEAPE`4080417942884358447145854679476348574950507151112525374.42-21.4221.42458.6740.41%28.78%538572.1712.8312.83164.6915.10%17.78%544372.67-29.6729.67880.1168.99%40.83%554768.92-21.9221.92480.3446.63%31.80%564868.00-20.0020.00400.0041.67%29.41%577366.086.926.9247.849.47%10.47%582365.08-42.0842.081771.01182.97%64.66%5911660.4255.5855.583089.5147.92%92.00%606764.832.172.174.693.23%3.34%613965.67-26.6726.67711.1168.38%40.61%628164.7516.2516.25264.0620.06%25.10%636765.581.421.422.012.11%2.16%645861.83-3.833.8314.696.61%6.20%655162.25-11.2511.25126.5622.06%18.07%665259.42-7.427.4255.0114.26%12.48%675160.17-9.179.1784.0317.97%15.24%686560.504.504.5020.256.92%7.44%695661.92-5.925.9235.0110.57%9.56%704660.50-14.5014.50210.2531.52%23.97%717562.4212.5812.58158.3416.78%20.16%724759.00-12.0012.00144.0025.53%20.34%736957.3311.6711.67136.1116.91%20.35%745959.83-0.830.830.691.41%1.39%755458.00-4.004.0016.007.41%6.90%764656.92-10.9210.92119.1723.73%19.18%774455.92-11.9211.92142.0127.08%21.31%785155.33-4.334.3318.788.50%7.83%794155.25-14.2514.25203.0634.76%25.79%807754.4222.5822.58510.0129.33%41.50%816955.4213.5813.58184.5119.69%24.51%825456.50-2.502.506.254.63%4.42%837657.1718.8318.83354.6924.78%32.94%848857.2530.7530.75945.5634.94%53.71%855560.67-5.675.6732.1110.30%9.34%867459.5014.5014.50210.2519.59%24.37%874660.75-14.7514.75217.5632.07%24.28%884960.08-11.0811.08122.8422.62%18.45%898060.3319.6719.67386.7824.58%32.60%9063.3314.4715334.96250.27410.2340MADECMMAPEMAPE`
El N ptimo es 12, ya que minimiza el Indicador de Precisin ECM.
Inventario de SeguridadSemanaDemandaPronsticoErrorError AbsolutoError CuadrticoAPEAPE`Inventario Mximo4080417942884358447145854679476348574950507151112525374.42-21.4221.42458.6740.41%28.78%104.52538572.1712.8312.83164.6915.10%17.78%102.27544372.67-29.6729.67880.1168.99%40.83%102.77554768.92-21.9221.92480.3446.63%31.80%99.02564868.00-20.0020.00400.0041.67%29.41%98.10577366.086.926.9247.849.47%10.47%96.19582365.08-42.0842.081771.01182.97%64.66%95.195911660.4255.5855.583089.5147.92%92.00%90.52606764.832.172.174.693.23%3.34%94.94613965.67-26.6726.67711.1168.38%40.61%95.77628164.7516.2516.25264.0620.06%25.10%94.85636765.581.421.422.012.11%2.16%95.69645861.83-3.833.8314.696.61%6.20%91.94655162.25-11.2511.25126.5622.06%18.07%92.35665259.42-7.427.4255.0114.26%12.48%89.52675160.17-9.179.1784.0317.97%15.24%90.27686560.504.504.5020.256.92%7.44%90.60695661.92-5.925.9235.0110.57%9.56%92.02704660.50-14.5014.50210.2531.52%23.97%90.60717562.4212.5812.58158.3416.78%20.16%92.52724759.00-12.0012.00144.0025.53%20.34%89.10736957.3311.6711.67136.1116.91%20.35%87.44745959.83-0.830.830.691.41%1.39%89.94755458.00-4.004.0016.007.41%6.90%88.10764656.92-10.9210.92119.1723.73%19.18%87.02774455.92-11.9211.92142.0127.08%21.31%86.02785155.33-4.334.3318.788.50%7.83%85.44794155.25-14.2514.25203.0634.76%25.79%85.35807754.4222.5822.58510.0129.33%41.50%84.52816955.4213.5813.58184.5119.69%24.51%85.52825456.50-2.502.506.254.63%4.42%86.60837657.1718.8318.83354.6924.78%32.94%87.27848857.2530.7530.75945.5634.94%53.71%87.35855560.67-5.675.6732.1110.30%9.34%90.77867459.5014.5014.50210.2519.59%24.37%89.60874660.75-14.7514.75217.5632.07%24.28%90.85884960.08-11.0811.08122.8422.62%18.45%90.19898060.3319.6719.67386.7824.58%32.60%90.449063.3314.4715334.962527.41%23.40%MADECMMAPEMAPE`1 (Desviacin Estndar de los Errores del Pronstico)18.137119956118.3019817656Se asume un Sistema de Control Continuo (s, Q)L (Lead Time)1SemanaNivel de Servicio95%k1.644853627Inventario de Seguridad30.1040810876Unidades
El N ptimo es 12, ya que minimiza el Indicador de Precisin ECM.
Grfica80404079414188424258434371444485454579464663474757484850494971505011251515374.4166666667104.52074775438572.1666666667102.27074775434372.6666666667102.77074775434768.916666666799.0207477543486898.10408108767366.083333333396.18741442092365.083333333395.187414420911660.416666666790.52074775436764.833333333394.93741442093965.666666666795.77074775438164.7594.85408108766765.583333333395.68741442095861.833333333391.93741442095162.2592.35408108765259.416666666789.52074775435160.166666666790.27074775436560.590.60408108765661.916666666792.02074775434660.590.60408108767562.416666666792.5207477543475989.10408108766957.333333333387.43741442095959.833333333389.9374144209545888.10408108764656.916666666787.02074775434455.916666666786.02074775435155.333333333385.43741442094155.2585.35408108767754.416666666784.52074775436955.416666666785.52074775435456.586.60408108767657.166666666787.27074775438857.2587.35408108765560.666666666790.77074775437459.589.60408108764660.7590.85408108764960.083333333390.18741442098060.333333333390.4374144209
DemandaPronsticoInventario Mximo
