PRESENTATION ERICA BERTA 24.09

PJEnergyNER300Unit

FinancialAnalysisofInnovativeEnergyTechnologies

EricaBertaTrainee

September2013

Scopeoftheresearchandmethodsapplied

• CompileadatabasecollectingrelevantcostsandrevenuesofinnovativeRENandCCSprojects

• CalculateLCOE,IRR,CostofstoringCO2,evaluatefuturesavingspotential

• Runasensitivityanalysisoninputcosts,endproductpricesandcapacityfactors

24/09/2013 FinancialAnalysisof innovative EnergyProjects 2

ProjectsOverview

• Bioenergy:3newprojects+5oldprojects- Sensitivityonfeedstockcosts,endproductprices- Doublecountingrule

• Wind:3newprojects+4oldprojects- Sensitivityonloadfactor

• CSP:3newprojects+1oldproject-SensitivityonCAPEX,irradiationvalues

• Ocean:4newprojects- Sensitivityonloadfactor,CAPEX

• CCS:1newproject

324/09/2013 FinancialAnalysisof innovative EnergyProjects

BioenergyAnalysis

1.05 1.010.64

1.36 1.36

0.9

23% 26% 32%

BIODIESELEUNYMEXARGUSRMEFOBRdam

BIODIESELEUFAMEOARGUSFOBRdam

EUETHANOLNEWFOBT2

DOUBLECOUNTINGMECHANISM

First genprice

Second genprice

Price diff.


BioenergyAnalysis

5

1.02

1.401.26

1.101.25

1.32

1.88

0.61

0.95

1.14

0.67

0.89

1.63

0.48

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

ETHANOL 1 ETHANOL 2 METHANOL 1 METHANOL 2 BIODIESEL1 BIODIESEL2 BIODIESEL3 PYROLYSISOIL1

EUR/l

LCOEOFALLBIOENERGYPROJECTSINEUR/lbiodieseleq.

LCOE EUR/leq NETLCOE EUR/leq 1stGENERATIONBIODIESELETHANOL T2FOB 2NDGENERATIONBIODIESEL 2NDGENERATIONETBEFUELOIL GASOLINE EU

EUR/lgasolineeq. EUR/lbiodiesel eq. EUR/ldieseleq.


WindAnalysis

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

WIND1SE WIND2AT WIND3DE WIND4BE WIND5BE WIND6PT WIND7FR

EUR/MWh

LCOO&M LCOInvestment EUR/MWh

OffshoreOnshore VAWT

Onshore Benchmark

Offshore Benchmark95

130

225

140

230

430

80

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%WIND4 CAPEX

Technicalcontingencies

DevelopmentCosts

Siteinfrastructure

Capitalequipment 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

WIND6CAPEXBREAKDOWN

DevelopmentCosts

Siteinfrastructure

Capitalequipment

4% 3% 4%

7%4%

6%

3%

WIND1SE

WIND2AT

WIND3DE

WIND4BE

WIND5BE

WIND6PT

WIND7FR

O&Mcost

6

CSPAnalysis

56%

90%78%

61%

16%

15%

24%19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CSP1 CSP2 CSP3 CSP4

CAPEXBREAKDOWNIN%

Installation andCommissioning

DevelopmentCosts

SiteInfrastructure

CapitalEquipment

11%

5%

10%

28%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

CSP1 CSP2 CSP3 CSP4

EUR/MWh

LCOEBREAKDOWN JRCVALUES

LCOEInvestment LCOEO&M LCOEFUEL Difference from basecase

310

260

390

305

Stirling

Benchmark CSP

Solar Tower


OceanAnalysis

547

396

301 291

30

121

7548

21

12

80

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

OTEC1FR WAVE 2IE TIDAL3UK TIDAL4UK

EUR/MWh

LCOEWITH5%DISCOUNTRATE

Investment O&Mcosts Insurance cost

530460

340

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

OTEC1FR WAVE2IE TIDAL3UK TIDAL4UK

CAPEX COSTBREAKDOWN OCEANENERGY:RELATIVEVALUES

Contingencies Intangible Assets

Installation andCommissioning Development Costs

CapitalEquipment

8

600


9

SensitivityAnalysis

• LCOEmostreactivetocapacityfactor changes(Wind,Ocean,CSP)

• LowersensitivityforCAPEXchanges

• Bioenergy:moresensitivitytoendproductpricesthantofeedstockcosts


CCSAnalysis

58

26

47

-16

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

EUR/MWh

POST 4UK:Levelised costsofgreenproductionwith CCSEUR/MWh

Avoided carbon costs

Storage

Transport

Capture

BasePlantw/oCO2costs

Storagecosts:335EUR/tCO2LCOE:120EUR/MWhT&Stariffof120EUR/tCO2stored


149

66

120

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

EUR/tCO2

LevelisedCO2storagecostsEUR/tCO2

Baseplant Capture Storage

ComparisonwiththeotherCCSprojects

0

50

100

150

200

250

CCSPOST 1(Pol)

CCSPOST 2(Ita)

CCSPOST 3(UK)

CCSPOST 4(UK)

CCSPRE(UK)

CCSOXY(UK)

CCSLCOEEUR/MWhegreen

Baseplant(w/oCO2costs) CaptureTransport StorageAvoidedhydrocarboncosts

120 115110

175210

120

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

CCSPOST1(Pol)

CCSPOST2(Ita)

CCSPOST3(UK)

CCSPOST4(UK)

CCSOXY(UK)

CCSIndustrial

(NL)

CCSPRE(UK)

CostofStoringCO2(EUR/tCO2)

Baseplant Capture Transport Storage

110 110140

165170

430

335

CCSAnalysis


CO2abatementcurveforCCSandinnovativeRENtechnologies

12

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

EUR/TCO2

OVERALLCO2AVOIDANCECOST

CCS:100-170

WIND:180-300

2° GEN.BIOFUELS:400-600CSP:600-800

OCEAN: >1000


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PRESENTATION ERICA BERTA 24.09

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