Presentation BONHOFF
Transcript of Presentation BONHOFF
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ALDE Seminar, Brussels | 15.03.2011
NOW GmbH | Klaus Bonhoff | Managing Director/Chair
Market Preparation of Hydrogen Mobility
The situation in Germany
Market Preparation of Hydrogen Mobility
The situation in Germany
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A global industry group assessed the potential of
alternative power-trains for passenger cars in Europe
based on proprietary company data
Core questions
How do FCEVs, BEVs, and PHEVs
compare to ICEs on
Cost
Emissions Energy efficiency
Driving performance?
What are viable production and supply
pathways?
What are the potential market
segments for the different power-train
technologies?
1 Report can be downloaded fromwww.now-gmbh.de/presse/studie-entkarbonisierung-individualverkehrs.html
www.europeanclimate.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=92&Itemid=42
Press release 8th
November 2010,Brussels1
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Series hybrid
conf
gurat
on of e ectr
c
and ICE dr ve3
Smaller battery capacity
than BEV, (L
-
on)
Veh
c e can be plugged-into charge from the gr d
Small ICE-based
generator for arger range
(range extender)
Short range: typ ca y
40-60 km) e ectr
c dr
v
ng.
(based on battery we ght
of 20-80 kg2)
Purely electric dr ve
Large battery capac ty,
L
-
on techno ogy
On y charg
ng of batteryfrom the gridwh
e
stat
onary1
Short range: typ
ca y
150-250 km (based on
battery we
ght of
70-180 kg2)
Series conf gurat on of fue
ce
system and e ectr
c
dr ve
Fuel cell stack based on
PEM techno ogy
Hydrogen tank pressuretyp ca
y 350 or 700 bar
Medium range : typ ca y
400-600 km
Conventional interna
combustion engine
No dependencyone ectric infrastructure
High fuel consumption
and exhaust emissions
High range: typica y
800-1200 km
Parallel hybrid
configuration of e ectric
and ICE drive; a so known
as hybrid e ectric vehic e
(HEV)
ICE is primary mover
of the vehic e with support
from sma
e ectric motor
Small battery charged
by the ICE
Fu
y e
ectric driving on
yat low speed forsmaller
distances (
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A portfolio of power-trains for Europe:
A fact based analysis The Potential
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140160
180
200
0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600
O
e issions
gCO2 /
Ran e
I E asoline
2050
I E diesel
2010
E
2050
1 ICE
ge f
2050
ed
f el economy improvement
nd
ming t
nk
ize
t
ysconst
nt
ssuming 6
CO2 reductiondue
to iofuels y 2020; 24
y 2050
E
2010
2050
2010
2010
2050
P E
Lowemissions nd ighrange
SOURCE:Studyanalysis
C/ SEGMENT
BEVs and FCEVs can
achieve significantly lower
CO2 emissions, while BEVs
show limitations in range.
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A portfolio of power-trains for Europe:
A fact based analysis The FCEV Advantage
E /year/car1, assumingnocost of O2
Annual
drivingdistance
,
A/ /
1
1 -2
>2
EV/ EV/FCEV
Lowest CO abate ent solutionT Odelta to I E2
FCEV
1!
onstant lifetime, " ut different totaldrivingdistances #$ %
,% % %
km; 18%
,% % %
km;& ' %
,% % %
km)
2!
alculatedas I!
ET!
Ominuslowest (!
EV/ ) EV/0 1
EVT!
O. NegativenumbersindicateaT!
Oadvantageovert 2 e I!
E
SO 3 4!
E:Studyanalysis
2 5 5 5
Long term, FCEVs are
the best solution for CO2
abatement in large vehicleswith high annual mileage.
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The results of the factual study are promising for fuel
cell technology
6
1 Fuel and power production on the basis of renewable energies and/or CCS technology2 Assuming an uptake of one mill ion FCEV in 2020 (cumulative carpark)
CO2 reduction BEV and FCEV are the main powertrain technologies capable of achieving the most ambitious 95%
C 2 emission reduction as targeted by the EU (EU 2050 Roadmap)1
Robustness Electric vehicles can be fueled with a broader range of feedstocks than ICEs
Technology More than 15 million km on the road demonstrate that technological hurdles and safety issues
have been overcome, FCEV are being geared up forindustrialization
CostCompetitiveness
The initial TC disadvantage towards ICE is primarily based on the lack of economies of scale andwill converge with the industriali ation of FCEV. Fuel cell system cost are expected to decreaseby 90% until 20202
Marketpotential
FCEVs play a complementary role to BEVs and PHEVs. FCEVs are ideally suited to medium/larger
cars and longer trips accounting for 50% of all cars and 75% of CO2 emissions. FCEVs aretherefore an effective low-carbon solution for a large proportion of the fleet
Infrastructure Due to H S technology improvement and ramp up, capex per station has the potential to decrease by~50% until 2020, however significant investment is needed for a large-scale roll-out
Incentivesand financinginstruments
Given a reasonable incentive system and funding instruments, the TCO disadvantages manyalready be leveled out by ~2020
Next steps H2 Mobility business case Germany as a pilot and lead market
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Source Vaillant
Transportation 54% * Includes H2 production and infrastructure
Expanding vehicle fleets and hydrogen
infrastructure starting from key regions
Stationary Applications 36% * FC micro CHP for residential use
Industrial FC gensets for CHP and
trigeneration
Special Markets 10% *
IT, telecommunications
Logistics, leisure and tourism
markets
Source CEP
Source BMVSource Telekom / PASM
95 projects
Funding: 229 million(BMVBS, Jan.2011)
95 projects
Funding: 229 million(BMVBS, Jan.2011)
Preparing Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Markets:
National Innovation Program (NIP)
* Planned distribution
according to National
Development Plan v
2.1.
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Clean Energy Partnership
Planning Through 2013
1 Additional industry
projects e.g. Chemergy
not included
2 Planning hori6
on shownis only until 2013
3 Part of CEP since 2010,
rollout of actual demo
project tbd
4 Request for participation
was submitted in 2010,
decision about
admittance in 2011
5 Only partly accessible by
public
6 HRS at A 24 (highway
from Berlin to Hamburg)
not included as planning
unclear
Start
date
Current no. of
public H Segion
No. of FCEV
planned2
Berlin 2002
Hamburg 2008
Nordrhein-Westfalen 20103
Baden-Wrttemberg 20103
Hessen 20114
Total no. of
public H S
planned2
2
15
0
1
1
46
46
1
4
2
63
25
10
20
15
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Hydrogen Production
Focussing on Wind Power and Biomass
Bundesverband WindEnergie
FNR
KBB Underground TechnologiesIncreased Wind Capacity will make
wind power the most important
source for hydrogen production
beyond 2020
Large scale Electrolyser is a keytechnology
Studies show potential for wind-
hydrogen-systems to store large
quantities of fluctuating energy
Biomass will play an important roleas feedstock for hydrogen
production beyond 2020
Gasification technologies are key
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H2 Mobility Initiative
vercoming the Chicken and EggDilemma
Memorandum ofUnderstanding for H2-Mobility signed Sept. 10th 2009 in Berlin
Ten key stakeholders from industries (OEM, oil, utility & industrial gas)
and NOW as public-private-partnership
Intention to build up hydrogen fueling infrastructure
and establishing Germany as lead market
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Phase 1: 2009 2011
Techno-economic evaluation of the feasibility to deploy a networkof HRS alongside the expected deployment of FCEVs in Germanyby 2015 (2009 2010)
Definition of the future Consortium Agreement Contract / Partnersnegotiation phase (2011)
Deployment of new HRS supported by the German Administration(Konjunkturpaket II subsidy scheme)
Phase 2: 2011+
Implementation of the hydrogen retail infrastructure by parties participating inthe consortium
H2 Mobility defined two successive phases
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In Phase 1, 17 private companies and N W developed roll-out scenarios for a
hydrogen infrastructure and FCEVs
Participating companies
Main achievements
Bottom-up development
ofconsistent infra-
structure and FCEV roll-
out scenarios
Assessment of econom-
ics associated with
hydrogen infrastructure
rollout in GER
Analysis ofsensitivities
and quantification of
risks and opportunities
Car EMs
Industrial gas
companies
il and gas
companies
Utilities
Govern-
mental rg
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Industry group evaluated roll-out scenarios forGermany applying a "clean
room" approach and an effective project organization
Project approach and working groups with industry
Clean
Team1
Econo-
mic
model
and
network
planning
Verified
and sanitized
input data
H2 production
roadmap
H2 cost
CO2 footprint
Industry
group:
Production
and supply
HRS types
Capex/Opex
Specifications
Industry
group:
Hydrogen
refueling
stations
FCEV roll-out
Rollout regions
H2 demand
Industrygroup:
Customer
value
proposition
Case A
Case B
Financial results
McKinsey & Company 10|SOURCE :H 2 Mobility
Investment 1
Revenue
GCF
EBIT
EUR millions p.a.
23222120191817161514132012 2030292827262524
Station roll-out
FCEV roll-out
Regional coverage H2 production and
supply roadmap
CO2 abatement
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1 Separate third-party team handling confidential data
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Main achievements and selected end products for pilot market
Germany
oll-out
scenarios for H2
station network
and FCEVs
Development ofFCEV roll-out scenarios with car
OEMs via "clean team" based on assumptions (e.g.,
incentives, market environment)
Assessment ofH2 station rollout and network
requirements (e.g., density, si es)7
89
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A
9 B9 C9 D9 E9
F7
8 9
7 7 @7 A7
B
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7
D
7
E
7 F7 77
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8
F
8
FCEV car park
G um H er of H2
stations
H2 production
and supply road
map
Assessment ofH2 production technologies on cost
and CO2 emissions (water electrolysis, steam
methane reforming, etc.)
Definition of H2 production and supply mixes
focusing on CO2
abatement, sustainability, and
economic efficiency
I iomass ref.
PQ CC
PQ CC+CCR
I yS product
T
roduction costs2
CarU
on footprint
SM V
SM V +CCS
WE ( V ECS )
I iogas ref.
I ioliq ref.
Dist. SM V
CQ
CQ +CCS
Holistic roll-out
cases
Description of consistent rollout case for ermany
Financial assessment of roll out cases including
NPV, investment, payback time
Evaluation ofrisks and sensitivities
EW
X
203029282726252423222120191817161514132012
14
oll out regions
and timing
Analyses of erman regions on traffic density,
income per capita, car registrations, etc.
Definition of"focus regions" and connecting
highways
2 Y XX 2 Y XX2 Y XX2 Y XX 2 Y XX2 Y XX2015 2025
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H2 Mobility alignment on regulations, codes, and
standards to ensure compatibility of any H S and FCEV
egulations,
codes, and
standards
Fueling
protocol
Fueling
connector
Hydrogen
quality
Dispenser
testing/
acceptance
Permitting
framework
Mass-flow
metering
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Next steps for H2 Mobility
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Analy e incentive scheme
among industry, GER
government, and EC
Define business and
implementation plan
Align with government on
potential incentives
Align with key
stakeholders
Negotiate future
organi ation
Participants internal
reviews of roll-out
scenarios
Collect feedback and
update roll-out scenarios
Implementation planoll-out scenario
evaluation
Stakeholder alignment
and negotiations
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Thank you!Thank you!
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