MAPA CEPAL Santiago de Chile, 02 - 06 2015 Taller Plan de...

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1 MAPA CEPAL Santiago de Chile, 02 - 06 2015 Taller Plan de Adaptación al Cambio Climático a escala de cuenca Proyecto MAPA Chile CEPAL-Naciones Unidas Dia 1 Contextos Regionales y Tomada de Decisiones BRAZILIAN RIVER BASINS: A REGIONAL CONTEXT FOR ADAPTATION TO CHANGES E. Mario Mendiondo, L A Cuartas, M. Seluchi, G. Dolif Neto, C. Cunningan, J. A. Marengo, A. P. A. Cunha

Transcript of MAPA CEPAL Santiago de Chile, 02 - 06 2015 Taller Plan de...

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MAPA – CEPAL – Santiago de Chile, 02 - 06 – 2015

Taller Plan de Adaptación al Cambio Climático a escala de cuenca

Proyecto MAPA – Chile

CEPAL-Naciones Unidas

Dia 1 – Contextos Regionales y Tomada de Decisiones

BRAZILIAN RIVER BASINS: A REGIONAL CONTEXT FOR ADAPTATION TO CHANGES

E. Mario Mendiondo, L A Cuartas, M. Seluchi, G. Dolif Neto, C. Cunningan, J. A. Marengo, A. P. A. Cunha

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Institutional Linkages of CEMADEN – Braz. Center of Monitoring and Early Warning of Disasters

Centro Nacional de Gerenciamento de Riscos e Desastres (CENAD/MI)

National Partners: MME/CPRM MMA/ANA MCIDADES IBGE INPE INMET DECEA UNIVERSITIES STATE CENTRES MUNICIPALITIES COMMUNITIESS

CEMADEN

Other Partners for Monitoring & Early Warning of Natural Disasters

BRAZILIAN BANKS POSTS Co. COTER (Armed Forces) MOBILE & TELECOM Co. MEC (Education Min.) CTI (Tech. Center of Information) MS (Health Min.)

International Alliances & Partners

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TWO CONTRIBUTIONS FROM CEMADEN, BRAZIL TO MAPA-CEPAL, Santiago de Chile, May 2015 Elements of Comprehensive Governance and Policy for Disaster Risk Reduction based on Hyogo’s and Sendai’s Framework for Action 2005-2030

1st contribution

2nd contribution

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Brazilian River Basins: a summary (Agencia Nacional de Águas)

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VSWI - 2014 Impacto da seca sobre áreas de

atividades agropecuárias no semiárido

Junho/2014

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Brazilian River Basins: a summary (Agencia Nacional de Águas)

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Water supplies can

vary significantly

from season to

season and from

year to year in

Brazil. Most of

Brazil experiences

pronounced wet

and dry seasons,

otherwise known as

high seasonal

variability.

Changes in the IV

and SV?,

deforestation,

LUCC, global

warming?

The ongoing drought in Southeastern Brazil offers a prime example of how damaging

a major supply drop can be over the course of a year. It began in December 2013 and

February 2014, historically the wettest time of year. The region received between 40-

50% its usual amount of rain. In the eight months since, rainfall has hovered at 60

percent below normal levels.

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Brazil: Water Scarcity State in year 2010-2015

Atlas Brasil, 2010

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Water Scarcity 2013-2015 at Southeast Brazil

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Water Scarcity 2013-2015 at Southeast Brazil

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Sistema Cantareira

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Seasonal Flow Forecast to Cantareira System Dez/2014 – Set/2015

QNat = Vazão Afluente

Sistema Cantareira = Sistema Equivalente + Paiva Castro

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A.N.A.(2002)

Water Scarcity Scenarios 2010-2050 for the Middle Tiete River Basin, Sao Paulo-SP (Source: Mendiondo, 2008)

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A.N

.A.(

200

2)

UGRHI 13: Tietê-Jacaré

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2010 2010 2025 2025 2050 2050

m3

/ a

no

.ha

bita

nte

Oferta = Q7,10 Oferta até Q95%

Uso consuntivo Uso não-consuntivo

Water Scarcity Scenarios 2010-2050 for the Middle Tiete River Basin, Sao Paulo-SP (Source: Mendiondo, 2008)

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Some opportunities for adaptation strategies at the scale of river basin: - a complete menu on risk assessment, risk reduction and risk transfer - ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) - risk transfer mechanism (insurance) - continuous training and education towards resilience - monitoring, modeling early warnings for disasters - optimizing decision making under uncertainty - and more…

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“MUITO OBRIGADO” & “GRACIAS”!

Prof. Dr. Eduardo Mario Mendiondo [email protected] - www.cemaden.gov.br