La Oportunidad de los Puertos Latinoamericanos en el Marco

de los TLC s y Mercados Comunes con el Resto de América

y el Mundo

26 de junio 2013

Robert West

bob.west@worleyparsons.com

People 41,000

Offices 150

Countries 49 Ports and Terminals All continents

Corporate Goal ZERO HARM

MEXICO COSTA RICA

COLOMBIA ECUADOR

PERU CHILE

ARGENTINA BRAZIL

Latin America

3

Let’s Get Started!

Main Topics

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Global Economic and Trade Outlook

Who’s winning the TLC race?

The Americas & the Rest of the World

Conclusions

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2

4

6

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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Real GDP Industrial Production

(World GDP, Percent change)

The World Economy is still recovering

from the nightmare of 2008-09

Source: IHS Global Insight, IMF

Cargo trade demand reflects more volatile industrial production

Indust. Production, Percent change

Nightmare

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15

20

25

30

35

40

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Pe

rce

tn S

ha

re

(World imports, percent of GDP)

World trade’s share of the economy is

still climbing – FTAs are helping

Source: IHS Global Insight

Globalization trend is long-term and has not reversed or stopped

No change

This was NOT

a reversal of

globalization

Ship Happens…

Source: Jean-Paul Ridrigue

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-9

-6

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0

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Latin

America

W Europe E Europe Mideast, N

Afr

Sub-

Sahara Afr

Japan Other

Asia-

Pacific

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-20

(Real GDP, percent change)

GDP growth rate differences

affect the pace of trade growth

and volumes by trade route

Sources: IHS Global Insight, WorleyParsons, IMF, Goldman Sachs

Geography of production / consumption is changing as emerging markets

grow 6% on average over the next decade vs. 2.3% for advanced countries.

World’s

Largest

Museum

Aging

Expensive

Not much growth –

recession in 2013!

Stronger Alliances

Main Topics

9

Global Economic and Trade Outlook

Who’s winning the TLC (FTA) race?

The Americas & the Rest of the World

Conclusions

We’re becoming more connected

– a good thing for everyone

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USA – powerful but not a leader in making FTAs

Mexico, Central America, Panama, Colombia, Chile, Peru

USA and FTAs – Slow Progress

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Colombia - $1.1 billion more trade

Panama – exports up 34%,

imports by 50%

Out of 283 FTAs in the

world, the USA has only 15

(with 20 countries)

$495 billion in goods

trade with Mexico, 2012

1994

0

5

10

15

US FTAs - 25 years to reach 15

http://trade.gov/press/press-releases/2013/panama-factsheet-051713.pdf

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Short Sea Shipping in MesoAmerica

is getting a boost.

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US

-PA

NA

MA

Not all FTAs are FTAs.

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Some agreements are just

agreements - ALADI

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Good intentions

Lots of meetings

Lofty goals

Not much

accomplished yet

European Union

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= Working

= Discussing

Mexico 2000

Chile 2005

Cen Amer 2012 (DR)

Colombia & Peru

2012

China – looking for UN votes

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• Mainly focused on imports

of resources

• Willing to invest in the

transportation

• Signing FTAs and building

transport infrastructure –

good ways to win votes.

Discussing

Presenting : The Pacific Alliance

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Costa Rica now joining

Zero tariffs on all goods and

services by this weekend

Visas – none. 215 million

MILA – Bigger than

Bovespa

Act as a unified bloc

Principals

Democracy

Free Trade

Observers China, Japan, NZ

Canada, Guatemala, Panama

The world we live in now

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Economic Growth

Trade Growth

Maritime Trade

Bigger Ships

Bigger & Better Equipment

PORTS

4+%/yr in emerging economies

8+%/yr in value terms ($$$)

5-7 %/yr in volume terms (TEUs)

18,000 TEUs. Lower costs

Faster, more TEU/hour

Not enough resources ($$)

Slow to react

Bottlenecks

WHY ISN’T TRADE MORE “OPEN”?

OBSTACLES TO TRADE

ON THE GROUND

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Borders – make it simple!

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We need more than just one window!

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And customs should be streamlined!

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Transport to/from the port

must be improved

Port safety and security –

A safe port is an efficient port!

It’s all about the institutions

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In desperate need of a BIG

PUSH to move the port sector

ahead

• No new concessions

in 3 years?

• Thorough review of

new applications . . .

• But quicker response

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Colombia

Main Topics

27

Global Economic and Trade Outlook

Who’s winning the TLC race?

The Americas & the Rest of the World

Conclusions

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CONCLUSIONS

The more connected the country by trade

agreements, the more it grows economically

Free Trade Agreements are one of the keys to

fixing the supply chains in Latin America

Trade must be facilitated through institutions that

actually work to unblock bureaucracies and

stimulate expansion

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Let’s Get Started!

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Success!!