NOAAUpdate prepared by:

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP14 November 2016

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña AdvisoryLa Niña conditions are present. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are below average in the central and east-central Pacific Ocean. La Niña is slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) through winter 2016-17(North Hemisphere)

Figure 1

Figure 2

west E A S T

Figure A. Forecast ONI (3.4) using ARIMA (2.0.2) for the quarter SON 2016. ONI data used to make the forecast range from 1950 DJF quarter to ASO quarter of 2016 (802 data ). According to the figure, the forecast of ONI is -0.705 for quarter ASO 2016 with the Code-Date 802 (Prepared by my self)

Figure B.- Forecast for El Niño(3,4) November 2016 = -0.337 calculated with data from Jan-2014 (1) until Octuber-2016 (35) (using polynomial equation with Grade 6) (Prepared by my self))

Trimestre ONI (NOAA)Pronóstico de ONI usando ecuación

Polinómica grado 6 con datos de ene 2014-jul 2016

Pronóstico de ONI usando análisis ARIMA(2,0,2)(I) con datos de feb 1950-jul 2016

Trimestre ONI (NOAA)Pronóstico de ONI usando ecuación

Polinómica grado 6 con datos de ene 2014-ago 2016

Pronóstico de ONI usando análisis ARIMA(2,0,2)(I) con datos de feb 1950-ago 2016

Trimestre ONIPronóstico de ONI usando ecuación

Polinómica grado 6 con datos de ene 2014-sep 2016

Pronóstico de ONI usando análisis ARIMA(2,0,2)(I) con datos de feb 1950-sep 2016

ASO -0,7 -0,776 -0,760

Trimestre ONIPronóstico de ONI usando ecuación

Polinómica grado 6 con datos de ene 2014-oct 2016

Pronóstico de ONI usando análisis ARIMA(2,0,2)(I) con datos de feb 1950-oct 2016

SON -0,337 -0,705

Trimestre ONI (NOAA)

Pronóstico de ONI usando ecuación Polinómica grado 6 con datos de

ene 2014-jun 2016

Pronóstico de ONI usando análisis ARIMA(2,0,2)(I) con datos de feb 1950-jun 2016

MJJ 2016 0,1 -0,571 0,245

JAS 2016 -0,6 -0,935 -0,55

JJA 2016 -0,3 -0,882 -0,23

Table A.- This table shows the results of ONI (3.4) monthly reporting NOAA (second column from left to right). The result of ONI reported by the NOAA for ASO Trimester 2016 was reported the first week of November. Forecasts of polynomial equations and statistical analysis Statgraphics ARIMA until ASO trimester are presented in the table.

With these forecasts for the ONI index (3.4) ranging from -0.705 (Figure A) to -0.337 (Figure B) where the ARIMA forecasts continue in their downward trend and polynomial equation has a breaking point of the downward trend from ASO trimester and in line with the forecast of an upcoming event weak La Niña we must be attentive to reports from NOAA and ENFEN, and be prepared for a weak La Niña(55 %) at summer 2017 (South Hemisphere)