Invierno Boliviano

8/9/2019 Invierno Boliviano

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6561 MARCH 1997 L E N T E R S A N D C O O K656 J O U R N A L O F T H E A T M O S P H E R I C S C I E N C E S VOLUME 54

On the Origin of the Bolivian High and Related Circulation Features of the South

American Climate

J. D. LENTERS AND K. H. COOK

Cornell University, Ithaca, New York

(Manu!"#$% "&!'& 1) D&!&*+&" 1995, #n -#na -/"* 10 S&$%&*+&" 1996

A2STRACT

T3& !#*a%//#!a %"u!%u"& #n %3& u$$&"%"/$/$3&"#! u**&"%#*& !#"!ua%#/n /'&" S/u%3 A*&"#!a ##an/& u#n a CM (#%3 an #%3/u% S/u%3 A*&"#!an %/$/"a$38, a #n&a" */&, an /+&"'a%#/na a%a.E*$3a# # $a!& /n un&"%an#n %3& /"##n /- /+&"'& -&a%u"& u!3 a %3& 2/#'#an 3#3 an %3&a!!/*$an8#nN/"&%& /:: %/ %3& &a%. R&u% -"/* %3& #n&a" */& #n#!a%& %3a% %3&& %/ -&a%u"& a"& &n&"a%& #n"&$/n& %/ $"&!#$#%a%#/n /'&" %3& A*a;/n +a#n, !&n%"a An&, an S/u%3 A%an%#! !/n'&"&n!& ;/n&, #%3A-"#!an $"&!#$#%a%#/n a/ $a8#n a !"u!#a "/& #n %3& -/"*a%#/n /- %3& N/"&%& /. T3& #"&!% *&!3an#!aan &n#+& 3&a%#n &--&!% /- %3& An& a"& *#n#*a, a!%#n /n8 %/ #nu!& a &a< && %"/u3 #n *#a%#%u&an a 3a/ */n//na !#"!ua%#/n /'&" %3& !&n%"a An&. In %3& CM, %3& &--&!% /- %3& An& #n!u& a%"&n%3&n#n /- %3& 2/#'#an 3#3 an n/"%3a" 3#-% /- %3& N/"&%& /, $"#*a"#8 %3"/u3 !3an& #n %3&

$"&!#$#%a%#/n -#&. T3& $/#%#/n /- %3& 2/#'#an 3#3 # $"#*a"#8 &%&"*#n& +8 A*a;/n#an $"&!#$#%a%#/n an# #%%& a--&!%& +8 %3& "&*/'a /- %3& An&. S%"/n u+#&n!& %/ %3& &% /- %3& 3#3 # -/un %/ +& #*$/"%an%-/" %3& *a#n%&nan!& /- %3& 3#3: a"* !/"&, 3#& a"&!a& !/n'&!%#'& /'&"3//%#n %/ %3& &a% # "&$/n#+&-/" a a8&" /- !/ a#" a+/'& %3& 3#3.

1. Introduction

U$$&"%"/$/$3&"#! %a%#/na"8 a'& "&$"&&n% /*&/- %3& */% #%#n!% !#*a%//#!a -&a%u"& /- %3&&a"%3: a%*/$3&"&. T3&& &'#a%#/n -"/* %3& ;/na*&an a"& a !/n&=u&n!& /- #n3/*/&n%#& a% %3&u"-a!& /- %3& &a"%3 (an>&a !/n%"a%, /"/"a$38, &%!.an a"& /+ &"'& %3"/u3/u% %3& /+& an /'&" a#& "an& /- &n%3 !a&. In a#%#/n %/ +n a"&$/n& %/ -/"!#n a% %3& &a"%3: u"-a!&, %a%#/na"8a'& !an a/ +& a /u"!& /- %"u!%u"& -/" %3& !#*a%&/- "&*/%& "&#/n %3"/u3 a%*/$3&"#! %&&!/nn&!%#/n.F/" &?a*$&, %3& R/!


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6571 MARCH 1997 L E N T E R S A N D C O O K657 J O U R N A L O F T H E A T M O S P H E R I C S C I E N C E S VOLUME 54

= 1997 A*&"#!an M&%&/"//#!a S/!#&%8


3/24

FI. 1. (a C#*a%//#!a %"&a*#n& a% @ *+ -/" Ju8 (-"/* NASADAO 4D a#*#a%#/n.S3a& "&#/n #n#!a%& %/$/"a$38 #n &?!& /- 1 1990. T3& NASADAO a%a a"& a'a#a+& /n a @.5)/n#%u& +8 @) a%#%u& "# an a% 1) $"&u"& &'&(/" @ #*a &'&. F/" $u" $/& /- !/*$a"#/n #%3%3& */& "&u% #n %3# %u8, %3& a%a 3a'& +&&n#n%&"$/a%& %/ an R0 %"an-/"* "# (0.75) /n#%u&

+8 a+/u% @.@5) a%#%u&. I% 3/u +&


4/24

FI. @. (a &/$/%&n%#a 33% (*a?#*u* &n/%& +8 H:: an #n '&!%/" a% @ *+ -"/* NASADAO /+&"'a%#/n. A+/'& 1@ 05* %3& !/n%/u" #n%&"'a # 1 *, 3#& +&/ #% # 5 *. S3a#n &n/%& %/$/"a$38 (!/n%/u" #n%&"'a 1 *, %a"%#n a% @5 *, an%3& '&!%/" #n %3& /&" "#3% !/"n&" #n#!a%& a #n $&& /- @ * @1. T3& a$$"/?#*a%& /!a%#/n /- %3& A%#$an/ # 3/n #%3 a 3#%&!#"!&. (+ V&"%#!a !"/ &!%#/n /- &8 &/$/%&n%#a 33% (!/n%/u" #n%&"'a 1 *, n&a%#'& !/n%/u" a3& an &8 %&*$&"a%u"&(3a&, 1K #n%&"'a 3#%& !/n%/u" &n/%& %3& K #n& an a"


5/24

FI. 0. (a O+&"'& @*+ %"&a*-un!%#/n (!/n%/u" #n%&"'a 5 0

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F#u"& 0+ !3a"a!%&"#;& %3& #'&"&n% !/*$/n&n% /- %3& !#"!ua%#/n. N/%& %3a% %3& *a?#*u* &/$/%&n%#a"&$"&&n% n%3&" a !&n%&" /- #'&"&n% /u%-/ (a "&$"&&n%& +8 %3& '&/!#%8 $/%&n%#a n/" a "&#/n /- *a?#*u* 3/"#;/n%a #n #'&"&n!&. In%&a, %3& a"&!a& !&n%&" /- /u%-/ # /!a%& 1) >15) %/ %3& &a%.R&#/n /- *a?#*u* #'&"&n!& a"& /!a%& %3"/u3/u%

%3& "&#/n, %3& %"/n&% +n %/ %3& &a% /- %3& 3#3a/n 45) an %/ %3& #**&#a%& /u%3&% (@0)S,64). S%"/n u$$&"&'& !/n'&"&n!& /!!u" a+/u%15) %/ %3& /u%3&% /- %3& 3#3.

T3& -&a%u"& /- %3& #'&"&n% !#"!ua%#/n (F#. 0+ /n/% a"&& a & #%3 %3& "&u% /- V#"G# (19)1 a /%3/& /- %3& "/%a%#/na !/*$/n&n%. F/" &?a*$&, #n V#"G#(19)1 %3& #'&"&n% !&n%&" # /!a%& a% a+/u% 7)S an60), an #'&"&n% #n &?!&& $&& /- 1 * @1

#n $a!&. In F#. 0+, #n $&& a"& n/ a"&" %3an 0* @1 an #n */% "&#/n "&$"&&n% n/ */"& %3an @/- %3& %/%a #n $&&. T3# #a"&&*&n% # $"/+a+8u& %/ %3& #--&"&n% $&"#/ /- /+&"'a%#/n an %3& #--#!u%8 #n a!!u"a%&8 /+&"'#n %3& #'&"&n% !/*$/n&n%

/- %3& !#"!ua%#/n. (In %3& !a& /- %3& NASADAO a%a,%3& #'&"&n% !/*$/n&n% # a/ &n#%#'& %/ %3& a#*#a%#/n */&: #*ua%& $"&!#$#%a%#/n -#&.H/&'&", & 3a'& a/ !/nu%& Janua"8 ana8&-"/* Eu"/$&an C&n%"& -/" M&#u*Ran&&a%3&" F/"&!a% (ECMF (19) >19)9 an-/un %3&* %/ +& #n +&%%&" a"&&*&n% #%3 F#. 0+ %3an%3& "&u% /- V#"G# (19)1. In $a"%#!ua", %3& ECMFa%a 3/ a #'&"&n% !&n%&" a% 1@)S, 55) an#'&"&n% #n $&& /- & %3an0 * @1.

!. Current understanding of the Bolivian high

a. Climatic

significance

T3& 2/#'#an 3#3 # #n%#*a%&8 "&a%& %/ /%3&" -&a%u"& /- %3& S/u%3 A*&"#!an !#*a%&. Nu*&"/u /+&"'a%#/na %u#& 3a'& n/%& a "&a%#/n3#$ +&%&&n %3&&a/na 'a"#a%#/n #n S/u%3 A*&"#!an "a#n-a an %3&

$/#%#/n an #n%&n#%8 /- %3& 2/#'#an 3#3 (K/u


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A a -&a%u"& /- S/u%3 A*&"#!an &a%3&", #% &?3#+#%#n#-#!an% 'a"#a%#/n #n $/#%#/n an #n%&n#%8 (V#"G#19)1. T3# 3/"%%&"* 'a"#a+##%8 3a +&&n "&a%& %//%3&" a$&!% /- %3& 8n/$%#! *&%&/"//8 /- S/u%3A*&"#!a. F/" #n%an!&, $"/$aa%#n u$$&"%"/$/$3&"#!!8!/n#! '/"%#!& #n %3& "&#/n /- %3& N/"&%& / #n%&"a!% #%3 %3& 2/#'#an 3#3 an */ua%& !/n'&!%#/n#n %3& "&#/n (K/u


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a a &%a" &?%&n#/n /- %3& 3#3 $"&u"& an a#3% &a


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nua *&an, S/u%3&"n H&*#$3&"& 'au&. O;/n& !/n!&n%"a%#/n a"& a/ ;/na8 un#-/"* an %3& a*& #n

+/%3 3&*#$3&"&. T3& CM # $un u$ -"/* an #/%3&"*a a%*/$3&"& a% "&%, an %3& -#"% 0 a8 a"&#!a"&. T3& "&*a#n#n @@ a8 a"& a'&"a& %/-/"* a !#*a%//8.

In /"&" %/ #/a%& %3& -una*&n%a u"-a!&>a%*/$3&"& #n%&"a!%#/n %3a% &a %/ %3& &n&"a%#/n /- %3&2/#'#an 3#3, *an8 /- %3& u"-a!& !/n#%#/n #n %3&CM 3a'& +&&n $&!#-#& #n an #&a#;& *ann&". T3&&?!&$%#/n a"& %/$/"a$38 an &a u"-a!& %&*$&"a%u"&(SST, 3#!3 3a'& "&a#%#! #%"#+u%#/n. T3& Janua"8SST a"& %3/& /- S3&a &% a. (199. T3& %/$/"a$383a +&&n -#%&"& (A. J. 2"/!!/#, 1990, $&"/na !/**un#!a%#/n %/ "&u!& #++ "#$$& %3a% a"& &$&!#a8%"/n n&a" %3& %&&$ an na""/ An&an %/$/"a$38.T3# #n#-#!an%8 #*$"/'& %3& #*ua%#/n /- $"&!#$#%a%#/n #n %3& '#!#n#%8 /- %3& An&. H/&'&", %3& *a?#*u* 33% /- %3& An& # #n#-#!an%8 "&u!&,"&a!3#n /n8 a+/u% @


9/24

FI. 4. A #n F#. @ +u% -/" %3& !/n%"/ CM &?$&"#*&n%. T3& !/n%/u" #n%&"'a #n (a # 1 * a+/'& 1@ 1 * an 5 * +&/.T&*$&"a%u"& #n ( a"& 3/n a% 4 *+.

!3an#!a -/"!#n +8 %/$/"a$38. In a#%#/n, /*& /-

%3& -/"!#n -#& a"& #'#& u$ &/"a$3#!a8, #n/"&" %/ &%&"*#n& "&$/n& %/ "&#/na -/"!#n. In $a"%#!ua", %3# a/ #n#'#ua !/n#&"a%#/n /- %3&#n-u&n!& /- *&!3an#!a -/"!#n +8 %3& An&, &n#+&3&a%#n /'&" %3& A%#$an/, an !/n&na%#/na 3&a%#n/'&" %3& A* a;/n, !&n%"a An&, an SAC. A%3/u3%3& %/%a nu* +&" /- #n&a" */& &?$&"#*&n% # "a%3&" a"&, /n8 %3/& %3a% !/n%"#+u%& #n#-#!an%8 %/ %3&%/%a "&$/n& a"& #!u&.

%. &odel results

a. 'C( control simulation: Comparison withobservations

T/ &'aua%& %3& CM: !/n%"/ #*ua%#/n /- %3& 2/#'#an 3#3, & !/*$a"& /+&"'& an */&& -#&/- &/$/%&n%#a 33%, %&*$&"a%u"&, an #n '&/!#%8#n %3& S/u%3 A*&"#!an "&#/n. T3& */&& *a?#*u*&/$/%&n%#a 33% a% @ *+ (F#. 4a # /!a%& a%a+/u% @4)S an 64), 3#!3 # Gu% %/ %3& /u%3&% /- %3& /+&"'& $/#%#/n /- %3& 2/#'#an 3#3 (F#. @a.T3& */&& an /+&"'& #n an &/$/%&n%#a "a#&n% %/ %3& /u%3 an &a% /- %3& 3#3 a/ !/*$a"&

-a'/"a+8. T3& CM, 3/&'&", #*ua%& an &/na%&

2/#'#an 3#3, %"&%!3#n %3& 3#3 $"&u"& an a/!#a%& !#"!ua%#/n %/ %3& &% (F#. @a an 4a. In a#%#/n, %3& %"/$#!a &a%&"#& %/ %3& n/"%3 /- %3& 3#3 a"&%"/n&" #n %3& CM (+8 u$ %/ 1 * @1 an &?%&n-a"%3&" %/ %3& &%. T3& N/"&%& / # */&& %/ %3&&a% /- %3& 2/#'#an 3#3, a &'#&n!& +8 %3& !8!/n#!!#"!ua%#/n #n F#. 4a. H/&'&", %3& / # /!a%& 5 ) > 1) n/"%3&% /- #% /+&"'& $/#%#/n. T3#&=ua%/"a" $/#%#/n#n a!% %/ -u"%3&" #%#nu#3 %3&!/& !8 !/n#! !#"!ua%#/n -"/* %3& "&*a#n&" /- %3& %"/u3 %/ %3& /u%3 3#& a% %3& a*& %#*&&a


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#%3 %3& 2/#'#an 3#3 a"& 3/n #n F#. 4! an 4.0

Aa#n, %3& un"&a#%#! &%a" &/na%#/n /- %3& 2/#'#an 3#3 # $"/n/un!&. H/&'&", %3& /u%3&a%a"&?%&n#/n /- %3& 3#3 an #% a"* !/"& # !/""&!%8!a$%u"&. T3& !/ !/"& /- %3& N/"&%& / a/ 3/u$ !&a"8 #n %3& */& %&*$&"a%u"& -#&, +u% %3& /# n/% a & &-#n& #n %3& &8 &/$/%&n%#a -#&.

D&$#%& /*& n/%a+& #--&"&n!& +&%&&n %3& /+&"'a%#/n an %3& "&u% /- %3& !/n%"/ &?$&"#*&n%, %3&

$/#%#/n an #n%&n#%8 /- %3& 2/#'#an 3#3 a"& "&a/na+8 & #*ua%& +8 %3& CM, a # %3& a/!#a%&a"* !/"&, #% &?%&n#/n %/ %3& &a%/u%3&a%, an %3&!/!/"& N/"&%& /. T3# u&% %3a% %3& */& #"&a/na+8 "&$"&&n%a%#'& /- %3& "&a !#*a%& an # !a

$a+& /- a"&#n =u&%#/n "&a%& %/ %3& /"##n /- %3&& -&a%u"&.

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O!&an.T3& #n&a" */&: 3a/ #*ua%#/n /- %3&2/#'#an 3#3 *a8 +& u& #n $a"% %/ %3& CM:!/n&na%#/na 3&a%#n $"/-#&, a $"&'#/u #n&a" */& %u#& /- %3& 2/#'#an 3#3 (3#!3 #*$/&#n#-#!an%8 &&$&" !/n '&!%#'& 3&a%#n 3a'& n/%3/n a #*#a" &-#!#&n!8. On %3& /%3&" 3an, %3& -a!%%3a% %3& CM !/""&!%8 #* ua%& %3& 2/#'#an 3#3 a%15 >@ *+ # an #n#!a%#/n %3a% n/n#n&a"#%#& $a8 an#*$/"%an% "/& #n "a##n %3& 33% /- %3& "&$/n&. Inu$$/"% /- %3# n/%#/n, # an P3#$ (19)6 n/%& %3a%%3& &'& /- *a?#*u* '&" %#!a '&/!#%8 # #$a!&a+/'& %3& &'& /- *a?#*u* 3&a%#n 3&nn/n#n&a"#%#& a"& !/n#&"&.

T/ #n'&%#a%& %3& #n&a" */& "&$/n& %/ 'a"#/u-/"!#n, u$$&"&'& -#& /- &8 %"&a*-un!%#/n a"&!/*$a"& (F#. 7. T3& -#& a"& &-% /n #*a u"-a!&#n /"&" %/ &nu"& %3a% %3& #n&a" /u%#/n "&*a#n&?a!%8 a#%#'& an %/ a'/# #n%&"$/a%#/n &""/" /'&" %/$/ "a$38. #'&n %3& 3a/ na%u"& /- %3& #n&a" */& "&$/n&, a n/%& a+/'&, /u%#/n a"&

$"&&n%& a% %3& 5 .04 &'&. T3& -u #n&a" */&"&$/n& (F#. 7a

4 T/$/"a$3#! -/"!#n # &-% /u% %/ a'/# #n#-#!an% #*a%/$"&u"& #n%&"$/a%#/n &""/" /'&" %3& An&. A # +& &&n, %3& &--&!%/- %/$/"a$38 a"& /- &!/n /"&" an / n/% #n#-#!an%8 !3an&

%3& -u #n&a" */& /u%#/n.


11/24

FI. 5. S&n#+& 3&a%#n "a%& -"/* (a %3& !/n%"/ &?$&"#*&n% an (+ NASADAO /+&"'a%#/n. C/n%/u" #n%&"'a # @ *@@, %a"%#n a% 15 *@@. (! an ( A #n (a an (+,"&$&!%#'&8, +u% -/" '&"%#!a8 #n%&"a%& !/n&na%#/na 3&a%#n "a%& (!/n%/u" #n%&"'a 5 *@@.

3/ a nu*+&" /- #%#n!% !#"!ua%#/n -&a%u"&, #n!u#n %3& 2/#'#an 3#3, N/"&%& /, an an&?%"a%"/$#!a %"/u3 /'&" %3& S/u%3 A%an%#!. T3&/u%3&a%a" &? %&n#/n /- %3& 3#3 # a/ &'#&n%#n F#. 7a.

In +"&a


12/24

FI. 6. A #n F#. @ +u% -/" %3& #n&a" */& #%3 -u -/"!#n (*#nu %/$/"a$38. T3& !/n%/u" #n%&"'a #n (a # 1 * a+/'& 1@ 1* an 5 * +&/. &/$/%&n%#a 33% #n (! a"& 3/n a% 05 *+, an %&*$&"a%u"& #n ( a"& a% 5 *+.

%#/na 3&a%#n "&$/n& 3a +&&n +"/


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FI. 7. E8 %"&a*-un!%#/n a% 5 .04 -"/* %3& #n&a" */& #%3 (a -u -/"!#n, (+!/n&na%#/na 3&a%#n, (! %3&"*a %"an#&n% -/"!#n, ( *&!3an#!a -/"!#n +8 %/$/"a$38,an !/n&na%#/na 3&a%#n "&%"#!%& %/ (& %3& A*a;/n +a#n, (- %3& !&n%"a An&, ( %3&SAC, an (3 a %3"&& "&#/n. C/n%/u" #n%&"'a # @ 0 16 *@ @1, an 3a#n #n (&>(3#n#!a%& %3& &/"a$3#! &?%&n% /- %3& #*$/& -/"!#n.

#&n% &"& "&$/n#+& -/" /--&%%#n %3& %"/$#!a an/*a#&, +u% %3& "&u% /- %3& $"&&n% %u8 &&* %/

u&% %3& a%%&". A% %3# $/#n% #% 3/u +& !au%#/n&%3a% %3& %3&"*a %"an#&n% 3/ a #n#-#!an% a*/un% /- '&"%#!a %"u!%u"&, an %3a% %/ #n%&"$"&% %3" &--&!% a a#*$& a*$#n /- %3& #a+a%#! 3&a%#n "&$/n& # an/'&"#* $#-#!a%#/n. In &!%#/n 6 & $"&&n% a */"& #n&$%3 ana 8# /- %3& %3&"*a %"an#&n% an /--&" a"n%&"$"&%a%#/n /- %3" "/&.

T3& $"#*a"8 &--&!% /- %/$/"a$38 /n %3& u$$&"&'&!#"!ua%#/n (F#. 7 # %/ #nu!& an &?%"a%"/$#!a %"/u3#n %3& && /- %3& An&. T3/u3 %3# %"/u3 # "&a%#'&8

&a


14/24

FI. ). A #n F#. @ +u% -/" %3& n/An& &?$&"#*&n%. T3& !/n%/u" #n%&"'a #n (a # 1 * a+/'& 1@ @ * an 5 * +&/.T&*$&"a%u"& #n ( a"& 3/n a% 4 *+.

/- %/$/"a$38 /n %3& 2/#'#an 3#3 a"& #n#n#-#!an%(F#. 7.

T3& #n&a" */&: n&##+& u$$&"&'& "&$/n& %/&n#+& 3&a%#n, +n &$&n&n% /n %3& CM: un"&a#%#!a8 / %/$/"a$38 an &n#+& 3&a%#n "a%&(F#. 4a an 5a, &&"'& !/**&n%. T3& '&"%#!a %"u!%u"& /- %3& #n&a" */& "&$/n& %/ &n#+& 3&a%#n/'&" %3& A%#$an/ "&'&a / $"&u"& a% %3& u"-a!&%/$$& +8 3#3 $"&u"& a% 5 .9. T3# &a< */n//na !#"!ua%#/n 8%&* +&!/*& n&##+& +8 5.7 an # ana//u %/ a 3a/ 2/#'#an 3#3, #n!u#n a a"* !/"& an !/ !a$. T3& #n&a" "&$/n&%/ %"/n&" -/"!#n (#%3 %3& a*& '&"%#!a !a& /u

+& "&a%&" #n *an#%u& +u% n/% #n '&"%#!a &?%&n%. E'&n#n %3& $"&&n!& /- a "&a#%#!a8 &&'a%& A%#$an/ (u"-a!& $"&u"& M 65 *+, n/ #n#-#!an% #n&a" "&$/n&/u /!!u" a+/'& 45 *+. T3u, #% # !/n!u& %3a%&n#+& 3&a%#n /& n/% #"&!%8 -/"!& %3& 2/#'#an3#3, a% &a% #n %3& #n&a" -"a*&/"


15/24

FI. 9. A #n F#. 5! (an F#. 5 +u% -"/* %3& n/An& &?$&"#*&n%.

%3& a+&n!& /- %3& An&, &$&!#a8 %/ %3& n/"%3 /- %3&3#3, 3&"& %3& &a%&"#& 3a'& +&&n "&u!& +8 5>1

* @1 (F#. )a an 4a. T3& #n&a" */& "&$/n& %/!&n%"a An&an !/n&na%#/na 3&a%#n (F#. 7- u&% %3a% %3# &a


16/24


17/24

H&*#$3&"& a"& +/un& /n %3& /u%3&% +8 3#3 $"&u"& an /n %3& /u%3&a% +8 / $"&u"&. T3# &?$a#n%3& $/#%#/n#n /- %3& 2/#'#an 3#3 (N/"&%& / %/%3& /u%3&% (/u%3&a% /- %3& A*a;/n#an $"&!#$#%a%#/n *a?#*u*. A/ =uan%#-#& #n E=. (4 # %3& $"&'#/u8 n/%& %"/n&" "&$/n& #n 3#3&" a%#%u& (#'&n %3& a*& -/"!#n. H&n!&, %3& '/"%&? %"&%!3#n*&!3 an#* #n %3& SAC # Gu% a %"/n a #n %3&A*a;/n (F#. 1!, &'&n %3/u3 %3& u$$&"&'&#'&"&n!& (an

9. T3& %&a8%a%& 8na*#! /- %3# /u%3&%a" $/#%#/n#n 3a'& +&&n &?$a#n& #n %&"* /- %3& S'&""u$ +aan!&, -"/* 3#!3 /n& !an /+%a#n %3& %&*$&"a%u"& -#&, au*#n &/%"/$38, !/n%#nu#%8, an 38"/%a%#! +aan!&. I% /u, 3/&'&", +& */"& a$$&a#n %/

&?$a#n %3& an/*a/u %&*$&"a%u"& -#& #n %&"* /- %3&3&a%#n #%&-.T3& !#*a%//#!a %3&"*/8na*#! &=ua%#/n #n $"&

u"& !//"#na%& # #'&n +8

$"&!#$#%a%#/n # &a


18/24

FI. 11. T&"* -"/ * %3& 4* + %3&"*/8na*#! +u&% BE=.(7 /- %3& n/An& &?$&"#*&n%, #n!u#n (a (1c p, (+

'B( 2+ c p p

@ (D+ D p, (! @ u(D+ D - @8(D+ D y, an ( %3& u* /- %3& %3"&&. C/n%/u" #n%&"'a a"& 1 K a8 @1 #n (a an (+ an .@ K a8@1

#n (! an (.

;/na *&an !/*$/n&n% (&n/%& +8 Q an B, "&$&!%#'&8, 8#&#n

d+ Q 1 2B+ B+

&'&, %u"+u&n% 3&a% -u?, %"an#&n% &#&, an a&a


19/24

FI. 1@. 4*+ #n '&!%/" (1 * @1 3/n #n /&" "#3% !/"n&" an &8 %&*$&"a%u"&(.5 K #n%&"'a, n&a%#'& !/n%/u" a3& -"/* %3& n/An& &?$&"#*&n%. N&% 3&a%#n "a%&B%3& "3 /- E=. () a"& 3/n 3a& (.5 K a8@1 #n%&"'a, #%3 %3& ;&"/ !/n%/u" #n 3#%&.Da"


20/24

FI. 10. A #n F#. 1@ +u% a% 1 *+. S3a& !/n%/u" #n%&"'a # 1 K a8@1.

!#*a%/ /#!a %&*$&"a%u"& %&n&n!8 u& %/ %"an#&n% &#& + !an +& $a"%#%#/n& a

D+ 9 2+ 9

"a##n %3& n&% '&"%#!a 3&a%#n $"/-#& #n %3& CM. In-a!%, a+/'& 0 *+ %3& %&*$&"a%u"& %&n&n!8 u& %/ %3&%"an#&n% &?!&& %3& #a+a%#! 3&a%#n "a%&, an */% /-

+ 5 @v9 O P+ 9 @ '9 D

p

1 '9 , (1c p p

%3& a#a+a%#! !//#n #n %3& A*a;/n "&#/n # +aan!& +8 %3&"*a %"an#&n%. C/""&$/n#n8, a+/'& a+/u% @5

3&"& $"#*& &n/%& &'#a%#/n -"/* %3& %#*& *&an. In%3& n/An& &?$&"#*&n%, %3& a% %&"* /n %3& "3. /- (1 # n&##+&. F#u"& 14 3/ %3& %/ "&*a#n#n%"an#&n% %&"*, 3/"#;/n%a an '&"%#!a %&*$&"a%u"& a'&!%#/n, '&"%#!a8 a'&"a& +&/ (F#. 14a an 14+

an a+/'& (F#. 14! an 14 %3& &'& /- %3& 2/#'#an3#3: a"* !/"&.

2&/ 4 *+ %3& %3&"*a %"an#&n% 3a'& a n&% !//#n &--&!% /'&" */% /- %3& S/u%3 A*&"#!an !/n%#n&n%.In %3& SAC an *#a%#%u&, %3& !//#n # /*#na%&

+8 %"an#&n% 3/"#;/n%a %&*$&"a%u"& a'&!%#/n (F#. 14a#n a/!#a%#/n #%3 $"/$aa%#n !/ -"/n%, 3#!3 a"&!/**/n8 /+&"'& -&a%u"& /- %3& SAC (K/u


21/24

FI. 14. (a H/"#;/n%a an (+ '&"%#!a %&*$&"a%u"& a'&!%#/n +8 %3& %"an#&n% &#& #n %3& n/An& &?$&"#*&n%, a'&"a& -"/* %3&u"-a!& %/ 45 *+. C/n%/u" #n%&"'a # .@ K a8@1. (! an ( A #n (a an (+, "&$&!%#'&8, +u% a'&"a& -"/* 05 *+ %/ 17 *+.

*. Summar( and conclusions

In %3# %u8 & &?$/"& %3& *&!3an#* "&$/n#+&-/" %3& %"u!%u"& #n %3& u$$&"%"/$/$3&"#! !#"!ua%#/n

/'&" S/u%3 A*&"#!a u"#n au%"a u**&". T3& $"#n!#$a -/!u # %3& 2/#'#an 3#3, a $"/*#n&n% a"*!/"&an%#!8!/n& %3a% &%a+#3& #%&- /'&" %3& &&'a%& A%#$an/ /- %3& !&n%"a An&. O%3&" !#*a%//#!a -&a%u"& /- #n%&"&% #n!u& %3& !/!/"& N/"&%& / %/%3& &a% /- %3& 3#3, a & a a &a< &?%"a%"/$#!a%"/u3 /'&" %3& &%&"n A%an%#!. P"&'#/u/+&"'a%#/na an */&#n %u#& a"& "&'#&& %/u**a"#;& %3& #*$/"%an% -&a%u"& /- %3& u$$&"&'&!#"!ua%#/n an /u" !u""&n% un&"%an#n /- %3&*.

An R0, 0&'& CM # u& %/ &n&"a%& a "&a#%#!#*ua%#/n /- %3& 2/#'#an 3#3 an a/!#a%& !#"!ua%#/n -&a%u"&. S/*& #!"&$an!#& #%3 /+&"'a%#/na"& n/%&, #n!u#n a %"/n&" an ;/na8 &/na%&2/#'#an 3#3 an &a< &n#+& 3&a% -u?& /'&" %3&A%#$an/. In &n&"a, 3/&'&", %3& a"&&*&n% # //,an %3& CM "&$"/u!& "&a/na+& %"u!%u"& #n %3&#n, %&*$&"a%u"&, an 3&a%#n -#& /'&" S/u%3 A*&"#!a. A CM &?$&"#*&n% #%3/u% An&an %/$/"a$38an a #n&a"#;& '&"#/n /- %3& CM a"& u& %/ &%&"*#n& 3/ %3& u$$&"&'& !#"!ua%#/n -&a%u"& a"& &n&"a%&. In $a"%#!ua", %3& #n#'#ua "/& /- #a+a%#!3&a% #n, %"an#&n% &#&, an *&!3an#!a %/$/"a$3#!-/"!

#n a"& #&n%#-#&, a & a %3& #n#"&!% &--&!% /- %/ $/"a$38 %3"/u3 */#-#!a%#/n /- %3& #a+a%#! 3&a%#n-#&. Mu!3 /- %3& %"u!%u"& # "&$"/u!& #n %3& a+&n!&

/- %3& An&, a/#n a #an/# /- %3& 8na*#! an%3&"*/8na*#! /- %3& !#"!ua%#/n -&a%u"& #n a #*$&" -"a*&/"


22/24

#n %3& !&n%"a An& an */#-8#n $"&!#$#%a%#/n &&3&"&. D&$#%& %3&& #*$/"%an% &--&!% /n %3& #a+a%#!3&a%#n -#&, 3/&'&", %3& "/& /- %/$/"a$38 "&*a#n&!/na"8, a &'#&n!& +8 %3& $"&&n!& /- a &&-#n& 2/#'#an 3#3 #n %3& a+&n!& /- %3& An&.

T3& $/#%#/n#n /- %3& 2/#'#an 3#3 %/ %3& /u%3&%/- %3& A*a;/n +a#n !an +& un&"%// +8 &?a*#n#n%3& u$$&"&'& '/"%#!#%8 an %3&"*/8na*#! +u&%.U$$&"%"/$/$3&"#! #'&"&n!& /'&" %3& A*a;/n # $"&/*#nan%8 +aan!& +8 %3& a'&!%#/n /- $an&%a"8 '/"%#!#%8 (a S'&""u$ +aan!&, #*$8#n &=ua%/"a" -//u%3 /- %3& #'&"&n!& *a?#*u* an 3#3 $"&u"& %/%3& &%. T3& $/#%#/n#n /- %3& 3#3: a"* !/"& #a"&8 &?$a#n& +8 %3& $"&&n!& /- !/*$&na%/"8 u+#&n!& /-- %3& u+%"/$#!a &% !/a% /- S/u%3 A*&"#!a.T3& a#a+a%#! a"*#n a/!#a%& #%3 %3# u+#&n!&# n/% !/*$&%&8 /--&% +8 "a#a%#'& !//#n an, #n %3&

$"&&n!& /- &%&"8 -/, -/"* a a"* an/*a8 %/%3& &a% /- %3& u+#&n!&. In a #*#a" -a3#/n, %3& a8&" /- !/ a#" a+/'& %3& 2/#'#an 3#3 -/"* &% /- %3&

$"&!#$#%a%#/n #n a/!#a%#/n #%3 a"&!a& !/n'&!%#'&/'&"3//%#n a+/'& %3& A*a;/n +a#n. T3# a#a+a%#!!//#n # &*+&& #n &a%&"8 -/, %3&"&+8 $a!#n%3& !/ a8&" %/ %3& &% /- %3& /'&"3//%#n.

T3& N/"&%& / # u!!&-u8 #*ua%& a a #"&!%, #n&a" "&$/n& %/ !/n&na%#/na 3&a%#n. T3# "&u% # #n !/n%"a% %/ $"&'#/u %u#&, 3#!3 # n/%!/n#&" %3& #n#-#!an!& /- "&*/%& $"&!#$#%a%#/n. In $a"%#!ua", %3& #n!u#/n /- A-"#!an $"&!#$#%a%#/n # "&=u#"&(#n !/nGun!%#/n #%3 A*a;/n#an $"&!#$#%a%#/n %/ -/"*a &&$ %"/u3 %/ %3& &a% /- %3& 2/#'#an 3#3, 3#&%3& SAC $#n!3&:: %3& %"/u3 #n%/ a !/& N/"&%&/. T3& %"u!%u"& /- %3# !/& / # */&"a%&8 a-

-&!%& +8 %3& An&, $"#*a"#8 %3"/u3 %3& #n-u&n!& /- %/$/"a$38 /n %3& /n#%u#na $/#%#/n /- %3& SAC.Pa!&*&n% /- %3& N/"&%& / %/ %3& &a% /- %3& A*a;/n#an $"&!#$#%a%#/n !an +& &?$a#n& +8 a S'&""u$

+aan!&, an %3& /: !/ !/"& # a% &a% $a"%8 *a#n%a#n& +8 n&% !//#n #n %3& SAC. T3& -/ -#& u""/un#n %3& N/"&%& / a$$"/?#*a%&8 !/n&"'& a+/u%& '/"%#!#%8, u&%#n %3a% #% # #*$/"%an% %/#n!u& a n/n;&"/ +a#!%a%& -/ 3&n */&#n %3#-&a%u"& 3/&'&", -u n/n#n&a"#%8 # n/% n&!&a"8.

N/n#n&a"#%#& a"& #*$/"%an%, 3/&'&", -/" #*ua%#n%3& '&"%#!a %"u!%u"& /- %3& 2/#'#an 3#3. T3& #n&a" */& #*ua%& %3& 2/#'#an 3#3: a"* !/"& a% a+/u%5 *+, !/n#&"a+8 /&" %3an %3& CM: 4 *+

(0 *+ #n %3& /+&"'a%#/n. T3# #n#!a%& %3& #n#-#!an!& /- n/n#n&a"#%#& #n "a##n %3& '&"%#!a "&$/n& %/ !/n&na%#/na 3&a%#n. (T3& #!"&$an!8 +&%&&n %3& CM an /+&"'a%#/na 3&a%#n $"/-#& #%3/u3% %/ +& a"&8 u& %/ %3& CM: */#%!/n'&!%#'& aGu%*&n%. T3& %"an#&n% '&"%#!a a'&!%#/n/- %&* $&"a%u"&, 3#!3 %"an$/"% an/*a/u 3&a%a+/'& %3& a"* !/"& u"#n $&"#/ /- #n%&n&!/n'&!%#/n, # & $&!#a8 #*$/"%an% #n %3# "&a" an3/u n/% +& /'&" //@47.2"/!!/#, A. J., an S. Mana+&, 199@ T3& &--&!% /- /"/"a$38 /n

*#a%#%u& N/"%3&"n H&*#$3&"& "8 !#*a%&. 6. Climate, %,11)1>1@1.

D&Ma"#a, M., 19)5 L#n&a" "&$/n& /- a %"a%#-#&( %"/$#!aa%*/$3&"& %/ !/n'&!%#'& -/"!#n. 6. !tmos. $ci., "2, 1944 > 1959.


23/24

F#u&"/a, S. N., P. Sa%8a*u"%8, an P. L. S#'a D#a, 1995S#*ua%#/n /- %3& u**&" ! #"!ua%#/n /'&" %3& S/u%3 A*&"#!an"&#/n #%3 an &%a !//"#na%& */&. 6. !tmos. $ci., %2, 1570> 15)4.

F/3n, H., 196) C/n%"#+u%#/n %/ a *&%&/"//8 /- %3& T#+&%an H#3an. A%*/. S!#. Pa$&" 10, 1@ $$. BA'a#a+& -"/* C//"a/S%a%& Un#'&"#%8, D&$a"%*&n% /- A%*/$3&"#! S!#&n!&, F/"% C/

#n, CO )[email protected], A. ., an J. E. &", 1991 A $"#*#%#'& &=ua%#/n */&

%u8 /- %3& &--&!% /- %/$/"a$38 /n %3& u**&" !#"!ua%#/n /'&" %"/$#!a S/u%3 A*&"#!a. 6. !tmos. $ci., "-, 1)@@>1)06.

#, A. E., 19) S/*& #*$& /u%#/n -/" 3&a%#nu!& %"/$#!a!#"!ua%#/n. 1uart. 6. 2oy. (eteor. $oc., 1+', 447> 46@., an P. J. P3#$, 19)6 N/n#n&a" &--&!% /n 3&a%#nu!& !#"!ua%#/n /- %3& %"/$#!a a%*/$3&"&. 1uart. 6. 2oy. (eteor. $oc.,112, 69 >91.

u%*an, . J., an . S!3&"%-&&", 1965 T3& "/& /- a%&n% an&n#+& 3&a% -/" %3& &'&/$*&n% /- a 3#3 $"&u"& 8%&* /'&" %3& u+%"/$#!a An&, #n %3& u**&". (eteor. 2undsch., 1-, 69

> 75.

Ha3n, D. ., an S. Mana+&, 1975 T3& "/& /- */un%a#n #n %3&S/u%3 A#an */n//n !#"!ua%#/n. 6. !tmos. $ci., !2, 1515>1541.

Ha%&n"a%3, S., 1991 Climate 0ynamics of the +ropics. Ku&" A!

a&*#! Pu+#3&", 4)) $$.H/"&, J. D., A. N. Ha3*ann, an J. E. &", 19)9 An

#n'&%#a%#/n /- %3& annua !8!& /- !/n'&!%#'& a!%#'#%8 /'&" %3&

%"/$#!a A*&" #!a. 6. Climate, 2, 10))>140.

K&&", A., 19)1 Fu!%ua%#/n /- %3& a%&" +u&% /n %3& A%#$an/

an /- %3& a%*/$3&"#! !#"!ua%#/n (#n &"*an. !achener 'eo

graphische !rbeiten, 1", 111>1@@.K&&*an, R., 19)9 A */&#n %u8 /- %3& &--&!% /- %3& An& /n

%3& u**&"%#*& !#"!ua%#/n /- %"/$#!a S/u%3 A*&"#!a. 6. !tmos.

$ci., "', 0044 >006@.

K/a*a, .M., 199@ La"&!a& !/**/n -&a%u"& /- u+%"/$#!a

$"&!#$#%a%#/n ;/n& (%3& 2a#u F"/n%a /n&, %3& SPC, an %3&SAC. Pa"% I C3a"a!%&"#%#! /- u+%"/$#!a -"/n%a ;/n&. 6.

(eteor. $oc. 6apan, *+, )10>)05.

, 1990 La"&!a& !/**/n -&a%u"& /- u+%"/$#!a !/n'&"

&n!& ;/n& (%3& 2a#u F"/n%a /n&, %3& SPC, an %3& SAC.

Pa"% II C/n#%#/n /- %3& !#"!ua%#/n -/" &n&"a%#n %3& STC. 6. (eteor. $oc. 6apan, *1, 5)1>61.

K/u05.

Mana+&, S., 1969 C#*a%& an %3& /!&an !#"!ua%#/n. T3&a%*/$3&"#! !#"!ua%#/n an %3& 38"//8 /- %3& &a"%3: u"-a!&.

(on. %ea. 2ev., *, 709 >744.Ma%un/, T., 1966 ua#&/%"/$3#! */%#/n #n %3& &=ua%/"#a a"&a.

6. (eteor. $oc. 6apan, "", @5> 40.

N#3#;aa, T., an M. Tana@06.

Ra/, . V., an H. 'an & 2//aa", 19)6 A !/*$a"#/n +&%&&n%3& 2/#'#an an T#+&%an u$$&" an%#!8!/n&. P"&$"#n%, 4roc.$econd Int. Conf. on $outhern 5emisphere (eteorology, &#n%/n, N& &aan. A*&". M&%&/". S/!., @7)>@79., an S. E"/an, 19)9 T3& a%*/$3&"#! 3&a% /u"!& /'&" %3&2/#'#an $a%&au -/" a *&an Janua"8. ound.)ayer (eteor., "',10>00.

R//n&8, D. M., an . S. Jan/#%;, 1979 F/ /'&" %3& R/!@7).

Sa%8a*u"%8, P., R. P. San%/, an M. A. M. L&*&, 19) On %3&%a%#/na"8 %"/u3 &n&"a%& +8 %3& An&. (on. %ea. 2ev., 1+-,51 >5@.

S!3u+&"%, S. D., R. 2. R//, an J. P-a&n%n&", 1990 An a#*#a%&a%a&% -/" &a"%3 !#&n!& a$$#!a%#/n. ull. !mer. (eteor. $oc.,*", @001>@04@.

S!3&"%-&&", ., 1961 S%"/ *unun %&*$&"a%u"-& &" -"&n a%*/$3a "& u+&" &n An&n. (eteor. 2undsch., 1", 1> 6.

S3&a, D. J., K. E. T"&n+&"%3, an R. . R&8n/, 199 A /+a*/n%38 &a u"-a!& %&*$&"a%u"& !#*a%//8. NCAR T&!3. N/%&

NCARTN0451STR. BA'a#a+& -"/* Na%#/na C&n%&" -/" A%*/$3&"#! R&&a"!3, P.O. 2/? 0, 2/u&", CO )070.

S#'a D#a, P. L., . H. S!3u+&"%, an M. D&Ma"#a, 19)0 La"&

!a& "&$/n& /- %3& %"/$#!a a%*/$3&"& %/ %"an#&n%!/n'&!%#/n. 6. !tmos. $ci., "+, @6)9 >@77.

T#n, M., an I. M. H&, 199 T3& %a%#/na"8 a'& "&$/n& %/ a%"/$#!a SST an/*a8 #n an #&a#;& CM. 6. !tmos. $ci., "*,@546>@566.

Va&, P. J., an 2. J. H/@5@7.

V&"n&", I., an . Ou"a, 197@ A nu*&"#!a 3a/-u# */&#n!u#n /"/"a$38 #%3 a 'a"#a+& "#. 6. !tmos. $ci. , 2, @7

> @)4.

V#"G#, H., 19)1 A $"&#*#na"8 %u8 /- u**&"%#*& %"/$/$3&"#!!#"!ua%#/n $a%%&"n /'&" S/u%3 A*&"#!a &%#*a%& -"/* !/u#n. (on. %ea. 2ev., 1+, 599 >61.

&+%&", P. J., 197@ R&$/n& /- %3& %"/$#!a a%*/$3&"& %/ /!a,%&a8 -/"!#n. (on. %ea. 2ev., 1++, 51)>541.

3&n, ., an K.N. L#/u, 19)6 D8na*#! an %3&"*/8na*#! #n-u&n!& /- %3& T#+&%an Pa%&au /n %3& a%*/$3&"& #n a &n&"a!#"!ua%#/n */&. 6. !tmos. $ci., "!, 104 >1054.


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