HDR 20072008 Presentation

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The 21

st

Centuryclimate challenge

³One generation plants a tree;the next generation gets the shade.´

Chinese Proverb

³You already know enough.So do I. It is not knowledge we lack.

What is missing is the courageto understand what we know

and to draw conclusions.´Sven Lindqvist



The world has less than a decade to avoiddangerous climate change that could bring

unprecedented human development reversals

Climate change is a threat to humanity as a whole.But it is the poor , a constituency with noresponsibility for the ecological debt we are runningup, who face the most immediate and most severe

human costs

The Human Development Report 2007/2008 calls for a µtwin track¶ approach that combines stringentmitigation to limit 21st Century warming to less than2 degree centigrade, with strengthened internationalcooperation on adaptation

The forthcoming conference of the parties in Bali isa unique opportunity to put the interests of theworld¶s poor and future generations at the heart of climate change negotiations



The 21st Century climatechallenge

Three distinctive characteristics:

± It is cumulative

± The effects are irreversible

± Large time lags ± today¶s

emissions are tomorrow¶sproblems

± It is global



Rising CO2 emissions are pushing up

stocks & increasing temperatures In the past 100 years

the earth has warmed0.70C

Atmosphericconcentrations of CO2

are increasing at 1.9ppm each year. Itreached 379 ppm in2005

Between 2000 and 2005an average of 26 Gt of CO2 was releases intothe atmosphere eachyear



The Global carbon

account Defining dangerous ± keeping within

2°C

Establishing a 21st Century carbonbudget

Defining a sustainable emission¶s

pathway

The problem of inertia ± the case for adaptation



The 21st Century carbon

budget is set at 1,456 Gt CO2

to avoid dangerous climate

change



The 21st Century carbon budget

is set for early expiry



Charting a course away

dangerous climate changeThe sustainable emissions pathway is as

follows

± The world ± cuts of 50 percent by2050 with a peak by 2020

± Developed countries ± cuts of 80percent by 2050

± Developing countries ± cuts of 20percent by 2050

with respect to 1990



Halving emissions by 2050 could

avoid dangerous climate change



Some people walk more

lightly than others The UK (population 60 million)

emits more CO2 than Egypt,Nigeria, Pakistan and Vietnam(total population 472 million)

The state of Texas (population 23million) has a deeper footprint thanthe whole sub-Saharan Africa (720million people)

The 19 million people living in New York have a deeper footprint than

the 766 million people living in the50 least developed countries

The distribution of currentemissions points to an inverserelationship between climate

change vulnerability andresponsibility



How many planets?

The 21st century carbon budget amountsto 1,456 Gt or around 14.5 Gt CO2 per year

Total CO2 emissions in 2004 stood at 29Gt

If every person living in the developingworld would have the same carbon

footprint than an average person in theUS or Canada, we would need theequivalent to nine planets to absorb theCO2



Climate shocks:risk and vulnerabilityin an unequal world

³The countries most vulnerable are least ableto protect themselves. They also contributeleast to the global emissions of greenhouse

gases. Without action they will pay a highprice for the actions of others.´

K ofi Annan

³Like slavery and apartheid, poverty isnot natural. It is man-made and

it can be overcome and eradicated bythe actions of human beings.´

Nelson Mandela



Risk and vulnerability

Climate risk is an external fact of lifefor the entire world

Vulnerability is a measure of capacityto manage climate hazards withoutsuffering a long-term potentiallyirreversible loss of well-being.

The state of human developmentshapes the process by which risk isconverted into vulnerability



Disaster risk is skewed towards

developing countries

1 in 19 people areaffected in

developing countries

The correspondingnumber is 1 in 1,500in OECD countries

A risk differentialof 79



The human development

backdrop Poverty, child mortality and malnutrition

± There are still around 1 billion people living onless than a dollar a day.

±

Around 28 percent of children in LDCs areunderweight or stunted. ± Only 32 countries (of 147) are on track to

achieve the MDG on child mortality

Inequality

± More than 80 percent of the world¶s populationlives in countries where income differentials arewidening

± Underlying inequalities act as a barrier for earlyrecovery after shocks



Low human development trapsThe potential human costs of climate

change have been understated

Climate related risks force people intodownward spirals of disadvantage thatundermine future oppurtunities

In Ethiopia, childre exposed to a drought inearly childhood are 36 percent more likely tobe malnourished five years later ± a figure thattranslates into 2 million additional cases of child maknutrition

Indian women born during a drought or aflood in the 1970s were 19 percent less likelyto ever attend primary school



Five human development tipping

points Reduced agricultural productivity

Heightened water insecurity

Increased exposure to extremeweather events

Collapse of ecosystems

Increased health risks



Climate change will hurt

developing country agriculture



Heightened water insecur ity ± glacial melting

Glacial melting possesthreats to more than 40percent of the world¶spopulation.

In the arid cost of Peru,

80 percent of fresh water originates from glacialmelt.

The flow of the Indus,could decline as much as70 percent

In Central Asia, losses of glacial melt into AmuDarya and Syr Daryarivers could restrict water for irrigation andhydroelectric power



Extreme weather events The number of additional people experiencing

coastal flooding could range from 134 to 332million for a 3o- 4o increase in temperature.

Tropical storms could raise the figure to 371 millionby the end of the 21st century

Possible consequences of one meter rise in sealevel

± In Lower Egypt, 6 million people displaced and 4,500kms2 of farmland flooded

± In Vietnam, 22 million people displaced ± In Bangladesh, 18 percent of land area could be

inundated affecting 11 percent of the population ± In the Maldives, more than 80 percent of land area is

less than 1 meter above sea level



Avoiding dangerousclimate change:

strategies for mitigation

³We shall require a substantially new manner of thinking if mankind is to survive.´

Albert Einstein

³Speed is irrelevant if you are going

in the wrong direction.´Mahatma Gandhi

³Alone we can do so little;together we can do so much.´

Helen K eller



Avoiding dangerous climate

change ± strategies for mitigation Setting mitigation targets:

current problems

Pricing carbon: the role of markets

The role of public policy:regulation and research &development



Problems setting emission

reduction targets Insufficient ambition

Insufficient urgency

Inaccurate indicators

Inadequate sectoral coverage

Inconsistent base years

Targets are de-linked from policies



Pricing carbon emissions

Market failure: Polluters do notsuffer the worse consequences

of their own pollution Immediate challenge: to push the

price of carbon to a levelconsistent with the sustainable

emissions pathway Ways to do it: taxation and cap-

and-trade and trade



Where should the price of carbon be

set?

How should the price be generated?

± Under carbon taxation emitters arerequired to pay for each tone of CO2 theyproduce

± Under cap-and-trade, the government setsan overall emissions cap and issuestradable allowances to allow business the³right to emit´

Taxation versus cap-and-trade



The r elative merits of taxation

and cap-and-trade Administration

Price predictability

Revenue mobilization

The differences can beexaggerated



The critical role of regulation

andgovernment action

The energy mix

The residential sector

Vehicle emission standards

R&D and deployment of low carbontechnologies



The Energy Mix

Currently energy mix is dominated by fossil fuels

Renewable energy is not competitive with coal-firedpower ± price of carbon and incentives for predicable markets can play a role

± Germany¶ Renewable Sources Act ± fix price for 20 years

± Spain ± wind power satisfies around 8 percentof total electricity demand. In 2005 saved 19million t CO2 emissions

± Denmark ± tax breaks on capital investments. Intwo decades wind has increased the share inelectricity generation to 20 percent



Residential Sector

Low cost mitigation

In OECD residential accounts for 35-40 percent of national CO2 emissions

Appliances alone produce roughly 12 percent

Policies on building and appliances could save upto 29 percent emissions (3.9 Gt CO2) by 2020equivalent to three times current emissions of India

Average European household could save 200 to

1000 Euros annually through energy efficiency

The best efficiency standards of electricalappliances could save 322 million t CO2 by 2010equivalent to 100 million cars off the road (all carsfrom Canada, France and Germany)



Vehicle Emission Standards

Personal transportation is the largestconsumer of oil

In OECD the automobile sector accounts for

about 30 percent of total greenhouse gasemissions

Improvements in the United States regulatorystandards would represent cuttings equivalent

to France¶s total emissions



Increased coal efficiency could

cut CO2 emissions



Adapting to the inevitable:national action andinternational cooperation

³If you are neutral in a situation of injustice,

you have chosen the side of the oppressor.´ Archbishop Desmond Tutu

³An injustice committed againstanyone is a threat to everyone.´

Montesquieu



By mid-2007, actualmultilateral financingdelivered throughUNFCCC amounted toUS$ 26 million

This is equivalent toone week spending infloods defences inthe UK

Amounts are not theonly problem. Timingand fulfillment of pledges presentfurther limitations

Towards adaptation apartheid?

Developed country investments dwarf adaptation funds



Investing in adaptation up to

2015

Additional financing needs for climateproofing infrastructure and building resilience

are estimated to be at least 86 billion by 2015- Climate proofing infrastructure

- Social protection

- Strengthening disaster response



The Human Development Report

underscores that: The poor are suffering and will suffer more with climate change. They

are at gr eatest risk to face human development reversals leading tolow human development traps.

Climate change is an urgent matter. We need to act now.

Both mitigation and adaptation are needed to truly fight climatechange and the threats it poses to humanity.

Rich countries must cut emissions by 30% by 2020 and 80% by 2050.

International cooperation on finance and technology transfer is

needed. The report argues for the creation of a Climate ChangeMitigation Facility.

Extreme inequalities in adaptation capacity exist. Internationalcooperation has been slow to materialize. Adaptation plans needsneed to be part of wider strategies of poverty alleviation.



The HDR 2007/2008 will belaunched 27 November 2007

http://hdr.undp.org

HDR 20072008 Presentation

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