El Impacto de Camisa en La Matriz Energetica Peruana

7/28/2019 El Impacto de Camisa en La Matriz Energetica Peruana

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EL IMPACTO DE CAMISEA

EN LA MATRIZ ERGETICA

CarlosHerrera Descalzi

UNMSM

Escuela Acadmica Pro fes ional de

Ing en iera Mecnica d e Flu id os

Lim a, 2607-2003


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ECUADOR COLOMBIA

BRASIL

BOLIVIA

CHILE

Lima

PERU

Acre

Lago

Titicaca

LEYENDA

GASODUCTO

POLIDUCTO

PLANTA

CRIOGENICA

FRACCIONAMIENTODE LIQUIDOS

Camisea

EXPORTACION DECONDENSADOS

EXPORTAC. DE GLP

LPG

Aguas arriba Campos de Gas de

Camisea

Planta de separacincriognica en Camisea

Fraccionamiento decondensados en la costa

Gasoducto: Camisea Puertas de Ciudad en Lima

Poliducto - Camisea- Costa

Red de Dsitribucin de Gasen Lima y Callao

TRANSPORTE YDISTRIBUCIN

Proyecto de CAMISEA|


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Las serpientes de los Andes


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Caractersticas del Proyecto El Yacimiento tiene un Valor Nominal de...

13 TPC

Gas Seco

12760x1012 BTU

Gas Seco

12760 US$Por 1.0

Por 4.0

Condensados

3480x1012 BTU

Condensados

13920 US$

Precio del Gas Natural Seco = 1.0 US$ / 106 BTU

Precio del Condensado = 18 US$ / Barril = 4.0 US$ / 106 BTU

78.5%

21.5%

26680 US$

48%

52%

1 Barril =4.5x106

BTU


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Actuales Regiones yReservas Gasferas

LIMA

CAMISEA

SELVA

CENTRAL

SELVASUR

COSTANORTE

GAS-BCF LGN-MMB

PROBADAS 296 14,8

PROBABLES 789 39,4

POSIBLES 1.802 90,1

RESERVAS

GAS-BCF LGN-MMB

PROBADAS 290 14,3

PROBABLES 80 3,6

POSIBLES 58 4,6

RESERVAS

GAS-BCF LGN-MMB

PROBADAS 8.404 567

PROBABLES 7.373 340

POSIBLES 10.671 466

RESERVAS


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VISIN DE LARGO PLAZO DEL GASEN EL PER

Todas lasEtapas

CentroNeurlgico

Concentrador

TalaraAguayta

Camisea

Cuzco

Ayacucho

HuancayoOroya

Lima

Ica

Marcona

Moquegua

Ilo

Puno

Trujillo

Chimbote

Arequipa

Apurimac

Tacna

Piura

Chiclayo


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Impacto de Camisea Balanza Comercial

En 1990 el dficit fue de 3.7 Millones Barriles y 52.5 Millones US$.

El 2000 el dficit fue de 13.8 Millones Barriles y 713 Millones US$.

Impacto en las Tarifas Elctricas

Cada ao de retraso de Camisea origina un mayor pago de los usuarios elctricosde 100 Millones US$.

Ingresos del Estado Regalas (37.24%): aplicado a la produccin vendida en Camisea (gas natural y

lquidos).

Impuesto a la Renta (30%): Aplicado a las utilidades. Impuesto General a las Ventas (18%).

Desarrollo Industrial Participacin de la Industrial Nacional: Generacin de Nuevas industrias y nuevos

puestos de Trabajo.


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Impacto de CamiseaPrecio de los Energticos

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

US$/106BTU

34

1915 14

Electricidad GLP Kerosene Gas Natural

Gas 1.8

T&DAP 1.8

DBP 8.2

IGV 2.0

Lima Cliente ResidencialEnero 2001

0


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4

812

16

20

24

28

32

US

$/106BTU

30

1613

5

Electricidad GLP Kerosene Gas Natural

Gas 1.8

T&DAP 1.8

DBP 0.7

IGV 0.7

Lima Cliente Comercial / Industrial MenorEnero 2001

14

Diesel


0


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4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

US$/106BTU 20

16

7

Gasolinas GLP G N C

Gas 1.8

T&DAP 1.6

DBP 0.1

Grifo 2.1

Lima Cliente Transporte

Enero 2001

14

Diesel

IGV 1.2


0


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Camisea y el medio

ambientePonderacin y equilibrio


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02-11-20 Washington Post: Gas Project'sDamage to Rain Forest Assailed

Two Texas energy companies, both closely tied to the Bush White House, are liningup administration support for nearly $900 million in public financing for a Peruviannatural gas project that will cut through one of the world's most pristine tropical rainforests.

the Camisea project has encountered fierce opposition. Worldwide environmentalgroups and some members of Congress argue that the massive extraction andpipeline project will destroy the rain forest and the lifestyle of its indigenous people.

will test the political pull of the Texas companies, Hunt Oil Co. and Halliburton Co.,which have longstanding ties to the Bush-Cheney administration and theRepublican Party

Hunt brought in Halliburton's Kellogg Brown & Root unit to engineer a proposednext phase, a $1 billion plant from which Hunt hopes to export liquid natural gas to

the United States by 2006. The controversy surrounding the project highlights the conflict between Bush's

energy policy, which advocates mining fossil fuels globally, and U.S. environmentalsafeguards, which detractors say the administration plays down.


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02-11-20 Washington Post: GasProject's Damage to Rain Forest

Assailed Under federal regulations, projects receiving backing from the Export-Import Bank of the United States and the Inter-American DevelopmentBank must pass rigorous reviews to ensure that they will not threatenrare natural habitats.

But officials reviewing the Camisea loan applications, who asked not tobe identified, say the project is proceeding despite warnings that it mayrun afoul of international environmental standards. Independent reviewscommissioned by project developers have also noted numerousproblems, including fuel spills, unauthorized pipeline route diversions,and destructive erosion and landslides.

This month, Peru's energy ministry fined the pipeline consortium $1million for clearing too much land, including parts of a protected naturepreserve, and building unauthorized access roads. The companieshave appealed.


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02-11-20 Washington Post: Gas Project's

Damage to Rain Forest Assailed "Even a carefully designed and well-managed project -- which this, so far, is not -- will cause

permanent harm," said Leahy, the lead Democrat on the committee that gives U.S. funds to theInter-American Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank. "If it goes ahead, far moreneeds to be done to mitigate the damage.

The resources of the Lower Urubamba River region, from its famed mahogany trees to exoticplants used in pesticides, have long attracted outsiders. In the late 1800s, rubber barons raided

the area and enslaved its tribal people. Yet Camisea today remains as it was then -- mostlyinaccessible, except by river. In the 1980s, Royal Dutch Shell prospected for oil in a 5-million-acre area of Peru's Ucayali

Basin, slicing through the rain forest to conduct seismic tests. Poachers invaded, illegallyharvesting trees and importing influenza, whooping cough and other maladies that killed fourout of every 10 people in some indigenous tribes.

Shell made a new effort in the 1990s, and tribal people objected, aided by environmental

groups such as the tiny California-based Amazon Watch and the larger OxFam International.Shell tried to placate the opposition, paying $1 million for the region's first biodiversity review,conducted by the Smithsonian Institution's Monitoring and Assessment of BiodiversityProgram. Scientists noted the jungle's "nearly pristine condition" and its wealth of unique,"unidentified species."


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Damage to Rain Forest Assailed The scientists persuaded Shell not to build roads into the region and to adopt strictpolicies against contact with indigenous people. But, in 1998, antitrust disputes with the government forced Shell to pull out of the project.

Indigenous leaders were elated. Today, they feel differently. "If we'd only known," said Lelis Rivera, director of the Center for Development of Amazon

Indigenous Peoples, or CEDIA, "we would, one thousand times over, have preferredShell.

In 2000, Peru awarded the Camisea extraction concession to a consortium led by Huntand Pluspetrol, and separately awarded the pipeline contract to another consortiumincluding Hunt, Pluspetrol and five other companies. The consortia pledged to adoptShell's social and environmental programs.

But the government set a 2004 deadline for project completion, and the companies saytime pressures have caused them to cut corners. "We have challenges, big challenges --environmental, social, also timing challenges," said Alejandro Segret, chief executive ofTransportadora de Gas del Peru (TGP), the pipeline consortium.


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Damage to Rain Forest Assailed TGP hired Knight Piesold, a consulting firm, to monitor environmental compliance. The

firm's oversight reports criticized the consortium for failing to control erosion and forviolating a 50-foot width limit on the pipeline route. TGP officials last month said they hadhired 600 workers to control erosion that is leading to landslides. But the consulting firm'slatest report says problems continue; Knight Piesold is now calling for construction to stopuntil erosion problems are fixed.

Erosion has also affected the indigenous people, a report said.

The pipeline right-of-way slices by the hamlet of Shimaa, home to 600 people. There,erosion has muddied streams used by inhabitants for drinking and washing, said Rivera, thedirector of CEDIA.

Schoolchildren must trudge through the right-of-way, which turns into a mud pit when itrains.

Last summer, students blockaded a construction road to protest the lack of clean drinking

water. Supplies were delivered but remain inconsistent, Rivera said. Some environmental groups have called for an immediate construction halt. The World

Wildlife Fund, which ranks Camisea on its list of 200 places deserving conservation,contends that "the starting point of forest destruction" will be the cleared pipeline paths thatwill bring "increased deforestation and habitat loss, hunting for bushmeat and trade andcontamination of headwaters."


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Damage to Rain Forest Assailed Another environmental coalition, including Friends of the Earth and Amazon Watch,commissioned an independent analysis, which found that the project would have"irreversible impacts on the biodiversity of this area and on the indigenous groups."

Last month, during a meeting at the Inter-American Development Bank, conservationgroups aired a list of complaints: workers intruding on isolated tribes; pipeline routechanges without notice or review; erosion muddying rivers; declining fish and game

populations; and at least seven worker deaths. Environmentalists have also cited the drowning of a 7-year-old Machiguenga girl who was

swept up in the wake of two speeding Pluspetrol supply boats on the Urubamba Rivernear Kirigueti.

"The project is past the point where it could ever have been brought into compliance withinternationally accepted environmental and indigenous-peoples standards, including

many of the IDB's own minimum standards," the groups said in a joint statement.


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Damage to Rain Forest Assailed Jon Sohn, international analyst for Friends of the Earth, said the connections are obvious to projectopponents. "Hunt and Halliburton were involved in their campaign fundraising, in their transition

policies and in Vice President Cheney's secret energy plan." Last month, Hunt Oil's chief executive, Ray L. Hunt, toured Camisea with Toledo, said Carlos

Garaycochea, Peru's vice minister of energy. The U.S. representative to the Inter-American Development Bank is Bush appointee Jose Forquet, a

Treasury official. Forquet mobilized Hispanic support for Bush's 2000 campaign and was a Bush

"Pioneer," an elite donor who raised at least $100,000. Forquet declined to comment. Until 2000, Cheney was Halliburton's chief executive. Ray Hunt was appointed to Halliburton's board

with Cheney's backing and still serves today. Hunt is also a longtime friend of and contributor to George W. Bush, who named him to the Foreign

Intelligence Advisory Board. Hunt raised money for Bush's father in 1992 and was tapped by theyounger Bush in 2000 to chair the Republican National Committee's Victory Fund, to which he and hiswife gave $20,000.

The Hunts have donated at least another $460,000 to Republican state campaigns, and theircompany, its employees and the spouses of employees have given more than $1 million to GOPcauses since 1995, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

Hunter Hunt, vice president of Hunt Oil and Ray Hunt's son, was Bush's "primary Policy Advisorresponsible for energy issues," according to Hunt Oil's Web site.


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02-11-20Washington Post:Gas Project'sDamage to Rain

Forest Assailed


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Gas natural y desarrollo


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Escenarios de valor desustitucin

Valor bajo como

sustituto de lahidroenerga

Valor alto como

sustituto del petrleo

Se podra presentar la disyuntivade exportar vs. usar en el pas?


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El sentido de CamiseaEnerga = capacidad de

cambio

Materia prima o poder decambio


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Reemplazo anual

00.E+0010.E+04

20.E+04

30.E+04

40.E+04

50.E+04

60.E+04

2002

2007

2012

2017

2022

2027

2032

2037

2042

2047

2052

2057

2062

2067

2072

2077

2082

2087

2092

2097

Aos

TJSector Residencial Comercial Sector Publico

Sector Agropecuario Agroindustrial Sector Pesquero

Sector Minero Metalrgico Sector Industrial

Sector Transporte Sector Elctrico

SectorExportacin


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Reemplazo anual acumuladoTJ

00.E+00

5.E+06

10.E+06

15.E+06

20.E+06

25.E+06

30.E+06

2

002

2

007

2

012

2

017

2

022

2

027

2

032

2

037

2

042

2

047

2

052

2

057

2

062

2

067

2

072

2

077

2

082

2

087

2

092

2

097

Aos

Sector Residencial Comercial Sector PublicoSector Agropecuario Agroindustrial Sector PesqueroSector Minero Metalurgico Sector IndustrialSector Transporte Sector ElctricoSector Exportacin


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Demanda de Gas Natural

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2,004

2,007

2,010

2,013

2,016

2,019

2,022

2,025

2,028

2,031

2,034

2,037

2,040

2,043

2,046

2,049

2,052

Aos

0

700

1,400

2,100

2,800

3,500

4,200

Reserva:TWh

Sector Elctrico Industrial Reservas Remanentes

Demanda : TWh


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Capacidad utilizada del gasoducto

-40.E+04

-30.E+04-20.E+04

-10.E+04

00.E+00

10.E+04

20.E+04

30.E+04

2002

2007

2012

2017

2022

2027

2032

2037

2042

2047

2052

2057

2062

2067

2072

2077

2082

2087

2092

2097

Aos

TJ


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Reservas de gas naturalTJ

-20.E+06-15.E+06-10.E+06

-5.E+0600.E+005.E+06

10.E+0615.E+06

Aos

2002

2007

2012

2017

2022

2027

2032

2037

2042

2047

2052

2057

2062

2067

2072

2077

2082

2087

2092

2097


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Factores de reemplazo

%

0%5%

10%15%

20%

25%

2002

2007

2012

2017

2022

2027

2032

2037

2042

2047

2052

2057

2062

2067

2072

2077

2082

2087

2092

2097

Aos

FDR(%) anual (mercado interno)FDR(%) anual (mercado total)


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Hidrgeno

Hidrgeno

Hidrgeno

Hidrgeno

Carbn

Molcula de Metano

CH4

El gas natural


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Gas Natural: reservas por regin(TPC)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Total

En desarrollo

EE/ex-URSS

Industrializado


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Gas Natural: reservas por reginal 2002 (TPC)

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Asia industrializado

Europa Occidental

Centro y Sudamrica

Norteamrica

Asia en desarrollo

frica

EE/exURSS

Oriente medio

Total mundial:5451 millonesde pies cbicos


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Gas Natural: reservas segnregin (%)

*Reservas remanentes aenero del 2002

** Reservas an nodescubiertas, hacia el 2025

5451 Trillonesde pies cbicos *

5196 Trillonesde pies cbicos **

Otros

Centro ysudamrica

Asia

Africa

Norteamrica

Oriente medio

Unin Sovitica35.9%

31.0%

36.2%

19.8%

4.9%

13.1%

7.2%

11.1%

4.6%9.4%

3.1% 6.0%

9.6%

7.9%

25%

50%

75%

100%

0%


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Gas Natural: importaciones netas deEstados Unidos (TPC)

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Histrico Proyecciones

Canad

LNG

Mxico


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Gas Natural: consumo en 5pases europeos (TPC)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


AlemaniaHolanda

Italia

Francia

ReinoUnido


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Gas Natural: consumo en Centro ySudamrica (TPC)

0.71.2

2

3.1 3.24.5

7.1

11.1

14.6

0

5

10

15

20

1970 1980 1990 1998 1999 2005 2010 2015 2020



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Gas Natural: participacin en el total deenerga (Asia y mundo)

0 10 20 30

Mundo

Resto de Asia

Corea del Sur

India

China

Australia

Japn 1980

1999

2020

Centro y Sudamrica: Gas natural e


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Centro y Sudamrica: Gas natural ehidroenerga (QUADs)

0

5

10

15

20

Renovables Gas natural

1999 2010 2020


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Gas Natural:gasoductosenSudamrica


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Estimacin del Precio del GNpara un Cliente Industrial

Sin IGVUS$/MBTU Participacin

Con IGVUS$/MBTU

Compra en bocade pozo 1.8 56% 2.12Transporte yDistribucin en AP 1.35 42% 1.59Tarifa de distribucinen BP 0.07 2% 0.08Total 3.22 100% 3.80


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Usuario Gran Industria

2

4.1 4.4

11.4 10.7

15.3

0

4

8

12

16

20

Cabn

Gasnatural

P.Ind6

DieselN2

GLP

Electricidad

US$106BTU


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Costos para GenerarElectricidad

14.518

39.6

54.661.2

0

10

20

3040

50

60

70

CC GasNatural

CVCarbn

TG GasNatural

MDResidual

6

MDDiesel 2

TGDiesel2

Tecnologa - Combustible

US$106

BTU

23.5


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Sector TransportesPrecios del GNCPRECIO AL PUBLICO

US$/MBTU US$/m ParticipacinPG 1.80 0.06357 27%

Total T&D 1.76 0.06226 26%Estacin 3.18 0.11221 47%

Total 6.74 0.23804 100%IGV 1.21 0.04285 18%

Al Pblico 7.95 0.28089 118%


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Sector TransportesFuentes Disponibles

7.9

12.7

16.318.4

0

4

8

12

16

20

GNC*

Diesel N2

GLP

Gasolinas

US$106B

TU


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Transporte delGas


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Gaseoductos y GNL


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Economa de escala del ducto

Si se incrementa el dimetro del tubo en 55%, la capacidad anual subeen 108% y el costo unitario por millar de kilmetros recorridosincrementa en menos de 70%.

Dimetro Capacidadanual

Costo ($/mcm)/1000 km

900 mm

1540 mm

10x109

m3

25x109 m3 0.35

0.43


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Economa de escala del ducto

Si se incrementa el dimetro del tubo en 55%, la capacidad anual subeen 108% y el costo unitario por millar de kilmetros recorridosincrementa en menos de 70%.

Dimetro Capacidadanual

Costo ($/103cuft)/103 km

36 pulg

60 pulg

420x109 m

875x109 m 0.0099

0.0122

E t t d l id d di l d GNL


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Estatus de la capacidad mundial de GNL:Existente, Planeado y Potencial hacia 1996

CapacidadExistente

Expansin10

6M

illonesd

ePC

NuevosProyectos enconstruccin

En Negociacinn/ Capacidad

Propuesta

CADENA DE COSTOS DEL GNL


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CADENA DE COSTOS DEL GNL2.00

1.80

1.60

1.40

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.200.00

Procesamiento del gas

Licuefaccin

US$/MillnBTU

Operacin ymaintenimientode lasinstalaciones

Almacenamientoy exportacin

Projectcost toliquefactionand export

Transportemartimo

Terminal deimportacin

Costos indicativos de cada etapa de una cadena de suministro de GNL (LNG).Base: 4.5 millones ton/ao de exportacin e importacin, con 3200 km de distancia (ida), por 20aos

Nota: Se excluye el costo fijo del gas


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GeopolticaChile en los ltimos 100 aos de

enclaustramiento al que nos ha sometido no

ha dado ninguna sea de considerar laposibilidad de una salida al mar. Cunta

humillacin tenemos que sufrir para entender

que a Chile no le interesa el desarrolloeconmico o acceso boliviano al Pacifico?


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Inversin e impacto en costos

3.5 - 6.04 - 8Total0.5 - 1.00.4 - 1Terminal Receptor y

Regasificador

0.8 - 1.61 - 2Transporte de GNL1.7 - 2.42 - 3Planta de Licuefaccin0.5 - 1.01 - 2Produccin de gas

Participacinen el costo

del GNLentregado

(US

$/MMBtu)

Inversin(en US$

109 )Actividad


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El Impacto de Camisa en La Matriz Energetica Peruana

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