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ACTION WHA -00NCLASSIFIED8INFO LOG-00 AID-00 AMAD-00DOTE-00 DS-00B-00TEDE-00 INR-00 VCIE-00FMPC-00 SP-00RM-00DRI-00 G-00FAT-00R 161547Z JUN 06FM AMEMBASSY MEXICOTO SECSTATE WASHDC 1685INFO ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVENSC WASHDCC ONFIDENTIAL MEXICO 003325

DODE-00H-00DOHS-00PRM-00

RELEASED IN PARTB6, B1, 1.4(D)

CIAE-00 INL-00 DNI-00FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VCI-00NSAE-00 ISN-00 ISNE-00SSO-00 3S-00SCC-00SAS-00 SWCI-00000W39677 161503Z /38

SIPDIS. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2016

AGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, MXBJECT: LEADING POLLSTER GIVES EDGE TO AMLO792

ssified By: ACTING POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR WILLIAM H. DUNCAN, RSONS, 1.4 (B/D).C) SUMMARY: In a June 15 meeting,'

eports that according tolpolling, the PRI'sMadrazo remains in contention, with his third placeing within the margin of error.elievesampaign, the final result mayn the quality of the parties' get - out-the-votean area in which she asserts the PRD holds acided advantage over the PAN. END SUMMARY.LO Enjoys Post-Debate Bounce

n June 15, poloff met with'

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATEREVIEW AUTHOR ITY: OSCAR J OLSONDATE /CASE ID: 17 FEB 2009 200704261NCLASSIFIEDbrador (AMLO) would defeat the National Action Party's (PAN)elipe Calderon by a narrow margin, not exceeding threeaid AMLO has enjoyed momentum ever since thetes' June 6 debate, when AMLO accused Calderon ofarelative. 1exico's most respected pollsters, told poloff thatbelieved that if the election were held today, the Partye Democratic Revolution's (PRD) Andres Manuel Lopez B

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UNCLASSIFIEDand widelyconsidered to be among Mexico's leading pollsters. retoldpoloff that based onost recent poll, published inMilennio on June 13,njoys a slight lead over Calderon,34.2% to 31%, with Roberto Madrazo trailing closely behind at29.6%. Isaid that all three leading candidates werewithin the poll's margin of error, notwithstanding the

assertion of some observers that this had became a two-manrace. Iagreed that AMLO has enjoyed momentum ever sincethe June 6 candidates' debate, in which he put Calderon onthe defensive by accusing the latter's brother-in-law of taxevasion and of benefiting improperly from state contracts.

(noted that at this late stage in the campaign,the parties grass-roots operation could make a hugedifference, and that the PRD's get - out-the-vote operation wasfar superior to that of the PAN. Iconcluded that if theelection were held today, AMLO would win, albeit by a marginf no more than three percent.on't Count the PRI Outrepeatedly emphasized that accordingo!polling, Roberto Madrazo remained in contention, arguingA rival polls showing him in a distant third place werelogically flawed. Ie xplained that other pollstersame likelihood of voting to professed PAN, PRDsupporters, whereas ini4judgment, those voters whot at this late date to supporting the PRI tend to be morer candidate than most professed PRD and PANAs Ibelieves PRI supporters are more likely to- and as the PRI has the most extensive grass-rootsnery to bring its voters to the polls --elieveste the party's strength.

Significance of "Strategic Voting"discounted the significance ofch assumes that voters hoping to keeparticular candidate -- in this case, AMLO -- out of officeest of his two rivals, regardless ofUNCLASSIFIED

B

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have been a factor in 2000, ast time PRD voters agreedUNCLASSIFIEDheir usual party affiliationsaid strategic voting maywith their PAN counterparts on the necessity of defeating thePRI; many were willing to vote for the PAN's Vicente Fox overthe PRD's Cuauhetemoc Cardenas, as Fox was by far thestronger opposition candidate.voting was unlikely to be a majtinattor this year becauseaid such strategic(i) the third place candidate, Roberto Madras, remains incontention, so his voters are unlikely to desert him, and(ii) unlike in 2000, this year the public is nearly equallydivided in thirds as to which party it wishes to keep out ofpower. Iquestioned the logic of those in the PAN whosought to weaken the PRI in the hopes of attracting defectingPRI voters, arguing that PRI voters were more likely todefect to the PRD than to the PAN. (Note: A poll publishedin the June 15 Reforma contradictsAccording to this poll, 11% of the voting p lic would bessertion.willing to vote for an alternate candidate if they believedtheir preferred candidate had no possibility of winning;under those circumstances, 2841 of Madras supporters saidthey would switch their vote to Calderon, whereas only 22 1 6said they mould switch to AMLO. End note.)egative Campaign Hurts the PANnoted that the AMIO's attacks onent brother-in-law" had clearly taken aublic support, andxpected theD to continue with this tactic. L argue , owever, thatN-led negative campaign againsmould have far lessuse over the years, AMIO's political rivals haveaveelieves thee ar revelationP fANort to significantly damage AMIO.on Instabilitythe volatile teachers' union strike nowpined that the current unrestouragecjout in that state. Likewise, theI-led state government's poor handling of the crisis will

sour the public on the PRI. Since the PRI, followed, are by far the two strongest parties in Oaxaca, aed turnout would inure to the benefit of the PAN;the PAN was unlikely to pick up many votes ina, the PRI's and PRD's vote totals there would be

B

UNCLASSIFIED

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suppressed.NCLASSIFIED8.C)said he was most concerned about a recent pollrevealingra 13t of Mexicans expected there to bepost-election unrest in their own communities.had not seen such a high percentage respond affirmatively tothis question since the 1990 Mexico state elections, thefirst major election held after the Carlos Salinas's suspectvictory over Cuauhetemoc Cardenas in the 1988 presidentialrace.aid that the question asked in this particularpoll, focusing on the situation in voters' own communities,was far more telling than the more general question ofwhether voters expected post-election unrest; voters wereunlikely to respond affirmatively to the former questionunless they knew of neighbors who were preparing for or atleast speaking about possible demonstrations.exico City's Classified Web Site atp : //www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity

UNCLASSIFIED