Criterios para el Análisis Cuantitativo de Riesgos

7/23/2019 Criterios para el Anlisis Cuantitativo de Riesgos

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_he miki }` kp`}th `j eh Agf* 8* eh go`jgagmhmgj o` ei} ~ègfti} gjb`t`j`} he~tim`}i i ~ehjh mij}gpw` è ~tgk`t ~h}i ~hth pj hjeg}g} mphjghgqi o`tg`}fi}* @j `}h `h~h }` `qhehj `jt` iti} ei} kh`tghe`} gjq`jhtgi} w eh}mijogmgij`} i~`thmgijhe`} oè ~tim`}i xp` ~pog`}`j imh}gijht `q`ji}gjo`}`hde`}* Ei} kioi} xp` h~egmh eh Gjop}tgh ^`tie`th w ^`tixpkgmhJhmgijhe `j eh go`jgagmhmgj o` ~ègfti} }ij< Hjeg}g} ^tègkgjht o` ^ègfti}"H^^' @}pogi} o` ^ègfti} w I~`thdgegoho "BH\I^' w @qhephmgij`} _mjgmh}o` ]`fptgoho3 ei} mphe`} }` o`}mtgd`j `j eh ]`mmgj 1*
http://www.intevep.pdv.com/santphttp://www.intevep.pdv.com/santphttp://www.intevep.pdv.com/santphttp://www.intevep.pdv.com/santp/mir/indice_mir.htmhttp://www.intevep.odv.com/~cit/cit_online/normas_i.htmlhttp://www.intevep.odv.com/~cit/cit_online/normas_i.htmlhttp://www.intevep.odv.com/~cit/cit_online/normas_i.htmlhttp://www.intevep.odv.com/~cit/cit_online/normas_i.htmlhttp://www.intevep.odv.com/~cit/cit_online/normas_i.htmlhttp://www.intevep.odv.com/~cit/cit_online/normas_i.htmlhttp://www.intevep.odv.com/~cit/cit_online/normas_i.htmlhttp://ir-s-00.pdf/http://ir-s-00.pdf/http://ir-s-00.pdf/http://ir-s-00.pdf/http://ir-s-00.pdf/http://ir-s-00.pdf/http://ir-s-00.pdf/http://ir-s-00.pdf/http://ir-s-00.pdf/http://ir-s-00.pdf/http://ir-s-00.pdf/http://www.intevep.odv.com/~cit/cit_online/normas_i.htmlhttp://ir-s-00.pdf/http://www.intevep.pdv.com/santp/mir/indice_mir.htmhttp://www.intevep.pdv.com/santp


7/93

T@QG]GIJ A@MBH



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8/93

T@QG]GIJ A@MBH



ÔQ]H GT]>4

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ÔQ]H

Bhdg`joi go`jgagmhoi ei} ~ègfti} `} j`m`}htgi mphjgagmht è jgqè o` tg`}fi

gk~emgi h idlì o` o``tkgjht è hemhjm` o` eh} kògoh} o` mijtie* Ehmphjgagmhmgj oè tg`}fi `} dh}hoh hji `j eh `}gkhmgj o` eh at`mp`jmgh oìmptt`jmgh o` hmmgo`j`} miki `j è mempei o` }p} mij}`mp`jmgh}*

^hth `}gkht eh} at`mp`jmgh} }` pgeg|hj ei} kioi} o` tdie o` `q`ji} w o` tdieo` aheeh} xp` }` o`}mtgd`j `j eh ]`mmgj 6* Eh dh}` o` ohi} ~hth eh `}gkhmgjo` at`mp`jmgh }` kp`}th `j è Hj`ri H* Eh `}gkhmgj o` mij}`mp`jmgh} }`à`mh kòghj` ~tifthkh} mik~phtg|hoi} mpwh} dh}`} o` mempei} }`mitt`}~ijo`j mij ei} kioi} gjogmhoi} `j è Hj`ri D* Eh mphjgagmhmgj oètg`}fi }`t `r~t`}hoh `j tkgji} o` tg`}fi gjogqgophe w)i tg`}fi }imghe ~hthà`mi} o` mik~hthmgj mij ei} mtg`tgi} o` ie`thjmgh*

Eh o`mg}gj }idt` eh} kògoh} o` mijtie h }`t hoi~hoh} o`d`t `}ht }i~ithoh~it pj hjeg}g} Mi}iD`jàgmgi*

1 GO@J_GAGMHMGIJ O@ ^@EGFTI]

Miki }p jikdt` ei gjogmh eh go`jgagmhmgj o` ~ègfti} ~t``jo` `jmijtht eh}mijogmgij`} o` ohi ~i`jmghe ~t`}`j`} `j pjh ~ehjh i ~tim`}i* Ehgo`jgagmhmgj o` ~ègfti} `} pj ~h}i mtgmi `j è Hjeg}g} Mphjghgqi o` Tg`}fi}~it mphji pj ~ègfti ikggoi `} pj ~ègfti ji hjheg|hoi* Hefpji} o` ei} kioi}w mjgmh} o`}httieehoh} kpjoghek`j` ~hth eh go`jgagmhmgj o` ~ègfti} }ij4

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Agf 4* OGHFTHKH ]GKÊGMHOI O@ BH\I^ "Tà* 4'


12/93

T@QG]GIJ A@MBH



ÔQ]H GT]>4

^fgjh 88


ÔQ]H

1*= @qhephmg j _mjgmh o` ]`fptgoho Gjop}tghe

Eh} `qhephmgij`} mjgmh} o` }`fptgoho gjop}tghe }ij pjh b`tthkg`jh xp`~`tkg` q`tgagmht }g eh gj}hehmgj w }p} ~timògkg`ji} o` i~`thmgj wkhj`jgkg`ji mpk~e`j mij ei} `}joht`} w ~tmgmh} o` }`fptgohot`mijimgoi}*

Eh mjgmh mij}g}` `j bhm`t pjh t`qg}gj mik~e`h o` pjh ~ehjh gjmepw`joigj}~`mmgij`} o` eh} gj}hehmgij`} w `jt`qg}h} mij è ~`t}ijhe mehq` gjqiepmthoi`j eh i~`thmgj w khj`jgkg`ji o` eh kg}kh mij è agj o` go`jgagmht ei} ~ègfti}k} }gfjgagmhgqi}*

@}` kioi `} à`mgqi `j eh} `h~h} o` mij}tpmmgj ~t`htthjxp` w i~`thmgj

o` pjh ~ehjh* @j `}h egkh }` ee`qh h mhdi ~`tgogmhk`j` `}~`mghek`j` `jhxpèeh} ~ehjh} mij}go`thoh} o` hei tg`}fi*

Ei} t`}pehoi} }ij mpheghgqi} ` gjmepw`j*

2*8*8 @a`mi} _rgmi}

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^fgjh 86


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_HDEH 8* _G@KÎ O@ @RÎ]GMGIJ J@M@]HTGI ^HTH HEMHJ\HT @EPKDTHE O@ OIEIT "T@A* ?'

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19/93

T@QG]GIJ A@MBH



ÔQ]H GT]>4

^fgjh 82


ÔQ]H

_HDEH 4* @A@M_I] O@DGOI H THOGHMGIJ _@TKGMH "T@A* ?'

Gj`j}goho o`Thoghmgj "cV)k4'

@a`mi Id}`tqhoi

81 _ie`thde` ~hth ehtfi g`k~i o` r~i}gmgj*

? @j`tfh }pagmg`j` ~hth mhp}ht oieit h ~`t}ijhe xp` ji ~pòh ~ti`f`t}``j 4> }`fpjoi}3 hk~ieeh} `j eh ~gè "xp`khopth} o` }`fpjoi fthoi' }ij~i}gde`}3 >% o` e`hegoho*

70 Pkdthe o` oieit hemhj|hde` j 1 }`fpjoi}3 xp`khopth o` }`fpjoi fthoio`}~p} o` 4> }`fpjoi}*

840 @j`tfh kjgkh t`xp`tgoh ~hth `jm`jo`t kho`th `r~p`}h h pjh thoghmgjogtgfgoh* Ap}gj o` pdi} ~e}gmi*

8=0 @j`tfh kjgkh t`xp`tgoh ~hth ohht kh`tghe`} o` dhli ~pji o` ap}gj"hepkgjgi }ieohopth} `m*'* @}` qheit `} è mtg`tgi p}hoi ~hth }`~hththjxp`} o` `mbi mjgmi

40 @j`tfh kjgkh t`xp`tgoh ~hth `jm`jo`t kho`th `r~p`}h

gjoàgjgohk`j` h pjh thoghmgj ji ogtgfgoh*

=80 ]pagmg`j` ~hth mhp}ht ohi} h `xpg~i} o` ~tim`}i*

2*8*= @a`mi} o` @r~ei}gij`}

Eh} `r~ei}gij`} o` fh}`} i qh~it`} gjaehkhde`} }`hj oàehfthmgij`} ioìjhmgij`} f`j`thj pj at`j` o` eehkh xp` }` kp`q` h thq} o` eh jpdò`}o` eh ap`j` o` gfjgmgj ~tiqimhjoi pjh ijoh o` mbixp` i at`j` o` ~t`}gj*O`}~p} xp` è kh`tghe mikdp}gde` `} mij}pkgoi hpjxp` è at`j` o` eehkhm`}h eh ijoh o` ~t`}gj mijgjph }p kiqgkg`ji bhmgh hap`th* Pjh ijoh

`r~hj}gqh `}h mijaitkhoh ~it eh ijoh o` ~t`}gj w è qg`ji }g`joi eh ijoh o`~t`}gj eh xp` mhp}h è khwit ohi* @e ohi `} dh}hoi `j pjh }idt`~t`}gj~gmi t`}pehj` oè gk~hmi o` eh ijoh `r~hj}gqh }idt` pjh `}tpmpth }g`joihkdgj apjmgj o` eh h}h o` gjmt`k`ji o` ~t`}gj w o` eh opthmgj o` eh ijoh*Eh _hdeh = "Tà`t`jmgh 0' kp`}th `}gkhoi} o` ohi} ~it }idt`~t`}gij`}*


20/93

T@QG]GIJ A@MBH



ÔQ]H GT]>4

^fgjh 87


ÔQ]H

_HDEH =* OHI] TIOPMGOI] ÎT ]IDT@^T@]GIJ "T@A* 0'

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>>= Tipth imh}gijhe o` fthjo`} q`jhjhe`} o` qgotgi t`hek`j` }ik`goi} h`}ap`t|i}*

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>80 ^t`}gj ~gmh ~hth tipth} o` qgotgi

>= Og}hjmgh }`fpth "~tidhdgegoho >70 o` xp` ji `rg}hj ohi} }`tgi} ~it o`dhli o``}` qheit' ekg` o` ~tiw`mge`}3 hefpji} ohi} h `mbi} o` qgqg`joh}3 8> % o`qgotgi} o` q`jhjh} tii}*

>? Ekg` o` ohi} `}tpmpthe`} k`jit`}

>08> Q`jhjhe`} o` qgotgi} fthjo`} w ~`xpì} p}phek`j` athfk`jhoi}3 ohi}imh}gijhe`} h khtmi} o` q`jhjh}

>6 Ohi} k`jit`} h `}tpmpth} o` qgqg`joh}

8> O`kiegmgj ~htmghe o` qgqg`joh} bhmgjoieh} gjbhdghde`}

4> Mieh~}i ~htmghe o` ~htò`} w `mbi} o` qgqg`joh}

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=>> Ekg` o` hd`tpth o` mt`t`}*


21/93

T@QG]GIJ A@MBH



ÔQ]H GT]>4

^fgjh 4>


ÔQ]H

7 MPHJ_GAGMHMGIJ O@E TG@]FI

Eh} kògoh} k} mikpj`} o` mphjgagmhmgj oè tg`}fi }ij eh} eehkhoh} tg`}figjogqgophe w tg`}fi }imghe xp` mikdgjhj eh gjaitkhmgj o` ~i}gdgegoho w khfjgpoo` eh} ~`togoh} i e`}gij`} ~tiq`jg`j`} o` pj ~ègfti* Eh kògoh oè tg`}figjogqgophe mij}go`th è tg`}fi o` pj }`t bpkhji xp` ~pòh `}ht `j mphexpg`t~pji o` eh |ijh o` à`mi} oè hmmgo`j` w eh kògoh oè tg`}fi }imghe mij}go`thè tg`}fi h eh} ~idehmgij`} xp` `}j `j he`} |ijh} o` à`mi}*

7*8 Tg`}fi Gjogqgophe

^pò` oàgjgt}` tg`}fi gjogqgophe miki è tg`}fi h pjh ~`t}ijh `j eh ~tirgkgoho

o` pj ~ègfti mij}go`thjoi eh jhpthe`|h o` eh e`}gj he gjogqgopi eh ~i}gdgegohoo` xp` eh kg}kh imptth w è ~`tioi o` g`k~i `j xp` ~pò` impttgt* Hj mphjoieh} e`}gij`} }ij o` fthj ~tìmp~hmgj bhw egkghoh gjaitkhmgj og}~ijgde` }idt`è fthoi o` eh} e`}gij`} ~it hji ei} hjeg}g} mphjghgqi} o` tg`}fiat`mp`j`k`j` `}gkhj è tg`}fi o` e`}gij`} gtt`q`t}gde`} i ahhegoho`} ~hth eh}mphe`} `rg}`j k} `}ho}gmh} t`fg}thoh}* @e tg`}fi gjogqgophe ~pò` }`t`}gkhoi ~hth ei} gjogqgopi} k} `r~p`}i} ~hth ftp~i} o` gjogqgopi} `jepfht`} o``tkgjhoi} i ~hth pj gjogqgopi ~tikògi `j pjh |ijh o` à`mi}*

@e tg`}fi gjogqgophe ~hth pj jgqè `}~`mgagmi o` ohi }` mhempeh ikhjoi `jmij}go`thmgj eh} }gfpg`j`} qhtghde`}4

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ÔQ]H

7*=*4 Tg`}fi ]imghe

@e tg`}fi }imghe }`t `r~t`}hoi `j tkgji} o` eh mptqh AJ eh mphe `} pjht`~t`}`jhmgj ftagmh oè tg`}fi ikhjoi `j mp`jh eh at`mp`jmgh "A' o` pjhmmgo`j` q`t}p} eh mhjgoho o` ahhegoho`} `r~t`}hoh} ~hth `}` hmmgo`j` "J'*@e t`}pehoi o` `}h t`~t`}`jhmgj `} pjh }`tg` o` ~pji} og}mtì} he miki }`kp`}th `j eh Agfpth ?* h ~htgt o` ei} mphe`} }` mij}tpw` eh mptqh AJ mij`mhjoiei} ~pji} xp` `}j k} hei} w he`lhoi} bhmgh eh o`t`mbh* @}i ~pò` }`t b`mbimij ej`h} t`mh} mt`hjoi ftagmi} g~i `}mhe`th i th|hjoi pjh mptqh }phq` hthq} o` ei} ~pji} he miki }` kp`}th `j eh kg}kh agfpth*

@j f`j`the hmmgo`j`} mij at`mp`jmgh} o` imptt`jmgh khwit`} mhp}hj k`jitmhjgoho o` ahhegoho`} xp` ei} hmmgo`j`} mij at`mp`jmgh k`jit`}* Eh q`jhlh

o` eh mptqh AJ `} xp` gep}th mehthk`j` eh tèhmgj `jt` eh at`mp`jmgh o` ei}hmmgo`j`} "A' w }p }`q`tgoho "J' kg`jth} xp` }p ~tgjmg~he o`}q`jhlh thogmh `jeh ogagmpeho o` mik~htht ei} tg`}fi} h}imghoi} mij ith} hmgqgoho`} i `q`ji}*

7*? Kògoh} @xpgqhe`j`} o` Ohi}

@e mijm`~i o` oi}g} ~ègfti}h ~pò` mt`ht ogagmpeho`} he mik~htht oga`t`j`}g~i} o` ohi} miki ~it `l`k~ei à`mi} o` thoghmgj mij à`mi} rgmi}* ^hth`}i} mh}i} }`t j`m`}htgi }è`mmgijht pjh oi}g} `xpgqhe`j` ~hth oga`t`j`}kh`tghe`} w g~i} o` ~ègfti} o` khj`th xp` è fthoi o` ~ègfti }`h }gkgeht ~hthioi} ei} à`mi}* ]p~ijg`joi xp` `}h }è`mmgj `} t`heg|hoh hm`thohk`j`

eh} mijtgdpmgij`} o` tg`}fi} }`~hthoh} ~hth oga`t`j`} g~i} o` ~ègfti} ~pò`j}`t gj`fthoh} `j pj tg`}fi ihe w thhoi} miki pjh }ieh `jgoho*

^hth à`mi} oè Hjeg}g} Mphjghgqi o` Tg`}fi} `j jp`}th gjop}tgh }`mij}go`th miki oi}g} ~ègfti}h eh xp` t`~t`}`jh pj jgqè o` ohi `xpgqhe`j`he 8% o` ahhegoho`}*

7*0 @mphmgij`} TIDG_

@e mempei oè tg`}fi ~tiq`jg`j` o` pj ~ègfti o`d` `}ht dh}hoi `j pj `}gkhoio` eh ~tidhdgegoho o` xp` he k`ji} pjh oi}g} `}~`magmh "o` fh} rgmi thoghmgjtkgmh i }idt`~t`}gj' `} ~t`}`j` h pjh og}hjmgh ~htgmpeht o` eh gj}hehmgj*

Eh oi}g} t`he t`mgdgoh o`~`jo`t o` eh} hmmgij`} oè gjogqgopi "~it `l`k~ei pjh~`t}ijh gk~ògoh ~pò` ji }`t mh~h| o` ~ti`f`t}` t~gohk`j`' w è à`mi o`}h o`~`jo`t o` xpg`j eh t`mgd`* ît ei hji mphjoi }` bhm`j tà`t`jmgh}hm`tmh o` eh i~itpjgoho o` ~io`t `}mh~ht h pjh jpd` rgmh ~ti`fgjoi}` `jpj hkdg`j` `r`tgit i è ~i}gde` à`mi xp` eh oi}g} `}~`magmh `joth }idt` pjgjogqgopi `} j`m`}htgi bhm`tei


26/93

AT@MP

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T@QG]GIJ A@MBH



ÔQ]H GT]>4

^fgjh 40


ÔQ]H

Agf ?* AT@MP@JMGH @] EH MHJ_GOHO O@ @Q@J_I] ÎT HI T@]PE_HJ_@ @JJ I KH] AH_HEGOHO@] "T@A* 1'


27/93

T@QG]GIJ A@MBH



ÔQ]H GT]>4

^fgjh 41


ÔQ]H

`j tkgji} o` eh} mhthm`t}gmh} gjogqgophe`} ~tòàgjgoh}* Eh khwith o`

jp`}th} `qhephmgij`} }p~ij`j xp` è gjogqgopi `} ~tikògi `j }p} htgdpi} eimphe o``tkgjh mphe oi}g} ~`tmgdgth* @j ioi} ei} mh}i} hkdgj }` mij}go`th pjhie`thjmgh ~hth }`j}gdgegoho`} `}~`mghe`} h eh `r~i}gmgj "`l`k~ei< h}gei o`hjmghji}' `j pjh `h~h ~i}`tgit `j è ~timògkg`ji o` `qhephmgj `j è p}io` mtg`tgi} o` tg`}fi} `}~`mghe`}* ^hth pj gjogqgopi ~tikògi }` ~pò`j bhm`t

lpgmgi} hm`tmh o` miki t`}~ijo`th h oi}g} `}~`magmh} i }g eh oi}g} ~pò` }`t~ègfti}h i ahhe*

^hth mhempeht pj tg`}fi gjogqgophe o` kp`t` }` j`m`}gh pjh mittèhmgj `jt` eh~tidhdgegoho o` kp`t` w eh oi}g} oè ~ègfti `j mp`}gj* Pjh aitkh o` `mphmgj~tidg `} at`mp`j`k`j` p}hoh ~hth `}` ~ti~}gi* Eh} `mphmgij`} ^tidg}ap`tij itgfgjhek`j` o`}httieehoh} ~hth ki}tht eh ~ti~itmgj o` `}~`mk`j`}o` ~tp`dh `j ehdithitgi} xp` kitgthj o`dgoi h oi}g} ogq`t}h} o` dgimgoh* ]p p}i~hth è mempei o` tg`}fi gjogqgophe `} dh}hoh `j }p~i}gmgij`} gk~emgh} o` xpìoi} ei} gjogqgopi} g`j`j gfphe`} ~i}gdgegoho`} o` kitgt o`dgoi h pjh oi}g}~htgmpeht w xp` `}h ~tidhdgegoho `} gfphe h eh ~ti~itmgj o` kp`t`} `j pjh~idehmgj fthjo` `r~p`}h* Eh o`tgqhmgj o` `}h mittèhmgj ~hth }`t`}bpkhji} `} ~tide`kgmh ~htgmpehtk`j` ~hth ~tiopmi} rgmi} o`dgoi h xp``rg}` kpw ~imh gjaitkhmgj ogt`mh xp` tèhmgij` eh oi}g} mij è à`mit`}pehj`*

@j `}` }`jgoi }` bh hoi~hoi pj `jaixp` xp` gjtiopm` è mijm`~i o` oi}g}~ègfti}h* @}h oi}g} ~ègfti}h mhp}hth `j pjh ~itmgj ~gmh o` ~idehmgj

gjmepw`joi ~`t}ijh} o` pj hk~egi thjfi o` }`j}gdgegoho`} è }gfpg`j` `}~`mtio` à`mi}762 0= 4

Dtiki 7>? >74 4

Kijrgoi o` Mhtdiji =672 =6 8

_ thmeitpti o` Mhtdiji 147 >?>2 40>

Meiti 247 >74 4

Aitkheo`bgoi 844? 8= 4

Meitpti o` Bgotf`ji 8120 4>> 8>>Mghjpti o` Bgotf`ji 47?4 =>>2 8?=

Aepitpti o` Bgotf`ji 4026 ==0? 8>>

]peapti o` Bgotf`ji =8?4 =>>2 8?=

Dtikpti o` K`gei 0128 046 8>>

G}imghjhi o` K`gei 01?4 81=6 >10=

Ogrgoi o` Jgtf`ji 8=67 8? 4

Ai}f`ji 8746 =121 8

Irgoi o` ~ti~ge`ji 6?80 >0>7 4>>Ogrgoi o` H|pat` 8016 48> 8>>

_iep`ji 167? >?>2 40>


29/93

T@QG]GIJ A@MBH



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Ei} qheit`} ^t mhempehoi} kòghj` eh `mphmgj "=' o`d`j }`t thj}aitkhoi}

h ~itm`jhl`} o` ~idehmgj ha`mhoh "i `}gkht è jk`ti o` ahhegoho`}'bhmg`joi p}i o` eh _hdeh 0*

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Eh `mphmgj ~tidg ~hth è mempei o` ahhegoho`} mij}go`thjoi jgmhk`j` ei}à`mi} o` eh ijoh o` }idt`~t`}gj `}2)hi8>6)hi

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32/93

T@QG]GIJ A@MBH



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Pjh `}mheh eifhtkgmh `} jitkhek`j` pgeg|hoh wh xp` eh at`mp`jmgh w è

jk`ti o` ahhegoho`} }` pdgmhj `j pj thjfi o` qhtgi} ito`j`} o` khfjgpo*_hkdgj `} p}phe ki}tht eh} mijtgdpmgij`} o` hmmgo`j`} }è`mmgijhoi} h ehmptqh AJ ihe ohoi xp` `}i hwpoh h eh go`jgagmhmgj o` ei} khwit`}mijtgdpw`j`} he tg`}fi*

Ith aitkh o` ~t`}`jhmgj oè tg`}fi }imghe `} pjh hdpehmgj oè tg`}fi ~hthoga`t`j`} hftp~hmgij`} o` ~`t}ijh} ha`mhoh} "~it `l`k~ei 8 h 8>3 88 h 8>>38>8h 8>>> ~`t}ijh}'*

7*6 Gjm`tgopkdt` w ]`j}gdgegoho

Eh gjm`tgopkdt` w eh }`j}gdgegoho }ij kh`tgh o` mij}go`thmgj `}~`mghe `j eh

pgeg|hmgj o` t`}pehoi} oè HMT* @e hjeg}g} o` gjm`tgopkdt` `} p}hoi ~hth`}gkht è à`mi o` eh} gjm`tgopkdt`} o` eh gjaitkhmgj w oè kioèi `j è`}gkhoi o` tg`}fi}3 kg`jth} xp` è hjeg}g} o` }`j}gdgegoho `}gkh è à`mi o`qhtght eh `jthoh h ei} mik~ij`j`} o` ei} kioèi} i ei} kioèi} `j }g kg}kigjogqgophek`j` i `j mikdgjhmgj*

7*6*8 Gjm`tgopkdt`

_t`} ap`j`} f`jtgmh} o` gjm`tgopkdt` }ij4

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O`dgoi he fthj jk`ti o` ~htk`ti} `jqpèi} `j pjh `qhephmgj o` tg`}fi ji

`} ~tmgmi bhm`t hjeg}g} o` }`j}gdgegoho h mhoh pji o` ei} ~htk`ti} }gj`kdhtfi ~pò` }`t `qhephoh eh }`j}gdgegoho ~hth ~htk`ti} xp` }` }p~ij`jgk~ithj`} i t`mijimgoi} miki o` heh gjm`tgopkdt`*

8> MTG_@TGI] O@ _IE@THJMGH

O`mgogt }g pj tg`}fi `} ie`thde` i ji `} }g`k~t` pj `kh oègmhoi w }pdl`gqi xpò`~`jo` `j fthj ~ht` o` eh i~gjgj ~htgmpeht o` mhoh ~`t}ijh* ]gj `kdhtfi `}j`m`}htgi og}~ij`t o` mtg`tgi} o` ie`thjmgh o` tg`}fi} ~p`}i xp` o` ith aitkhji `rg}` kògi hd}iepi ~hth `qhepht è }gfjgagmhoi o` ei} t`}pehoi} o` pjHjeg}g} Mphjghgqi o` Tg`}fi} jg hk~imi o` aitkpeht t`mik`johmgij`}ho`mphoh}*

Ei} mtg`tgi} o` ie`thjmgh o` tg`}fi} oàgjgoi} `j `}h }`mmgj tàe`lhj è jgqèo` tg`}fi mghk`j` ~`tkg}gde` è mphe qg`j` ohoi ~it pj dhehjm` `jt` eh dp`jh~tmgmh o` og}ì i~`thmgj w khj`jgkg`ji w ei} t`mpt}i} og}~ijgde`} ~hthtòpmgt tg`}fi}*

@}i} mtg`tgi} aglhj è ekg` bh}h oijo` }` ~iot og}kgjpgt pj tg`}fi h thq} o`kògoh} o` gjf`jg`th ~hth tòpmgt }p at`mp`jmgh o` imptt`jmgh w }p}mij}`mp`jmgh} è mphe efgmhk`j` migjmgogt mij è ekg` h ~htgt oè mphe }ò`d`t gjq`tgt `j eh èhdithmgj o` ~ehj`} o` mijgjf`jmgh `jo`j`} h tòpmgt

eh} mij}`mp`jmgh} o` he`} tg`}fi}*

Eh ie`thjmgh o` pj tg`}fi `} pjh mp`}gj }pkhk`j` oègmhoh ohoi xp` `}h}imghoh mij eh ~`tm`~mgj o` eh }`q`tgoho o` eh} mij}`mp`jmgh} ~i`jmghe`} o`pj hmmgo`j` `}~`mghek`j` mphjoi ha`mh he ~degmi `j f`j`the* Ei} tg`}fi}kpegogk`j}gijhe`} xp` gjqiepmthj h ~`t}ijh} kògi hkdg`j` w hmgqi}t`xpg`t`j o` mij}go`thmgij`} hogmgijhe`} `j è hjeg}g} mi}id`jàgmgi*T`mijimg`joi eh} ogagmpeho`} gk~emgh} `j lp|fht eh ie`thdgegoho o` tg`}fi} }ò`mgog hoi~ht pj `jaixp` o` t`fgj o` tg`}fi hj`} xp` qheit`} egkg` `}tgmi}ei mphe `} eh `jo`jmgh biw `j oh h jgqè kpjoghe he miki ei o`kp`}thjgjaitk`} ` gjq`}gfhmgij`} t`mg`j`}* ^hth èei }` o`mgog aglht t`} t`h} dg`j

o`khtmhoh} miki }ij4

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8>*8 Mtg`tgi o` _ie`thjmgh o` Tg }fi Gjogqgophe

Eh ie`thjmgh oè tg`}fi ~tiq`jg`j` o` pjh gj}hehmgj gjop}tghe ~pò` }`tlp|fhoh mik~hthjoi ei} `}gkhoi} o` tg`}fi gjogqgophe hjphe mij ei} tg`}fi}h}imghoi} h mg`th} hmgqgoho`} mijimgoh}3 he bhm`t `}h mik~hthmgj }`t`mijim` xp` f`j`thek`j` ei} tg`}fi} h ei} mphe`} eh} ~`t}ijh} }` `jmp`jthj`r~p`}h} ~pò`j }`t hftp~hoi} `j oi} mh`fith}< qiepjhtgi} gjqiepjhtgi}*@l`k~ei o` `r~i}gmgij`} qiepjhtgh} he tg`}fi }ij hmgqgoho`} he`} mikikiimti}} `}mheht kijhh} qieht `j hqgij`} mik`tmghe`} i ~tgqhoi} mitt`thpikqge`} w thdhlht `j pjh gj}hehmgj gjop}tghe* @l`k~ei} o` `r~i}gmgij`}gjqiepjhtgh} h tg`}fi} ei mij}gpw`j eh} o`}mhtfh} èmtgmh} `ja`tkòho`}bpthmhj`} w ~`t}ijh} eimheg|hoh} `j t`h} t`}go`jmghe`} i t`mt`hmgijhe`} m`tmh

o` gj}hehmgij`} gjop}tghe`}* T`}~`mi h ei} tg`}fi} o` gj}hehmgij`}gjop}tghe`} }p} thdhlhoit`} }ij meh}gagmhoi} miki t`m`~it`} qiepjhtgi} o`tg`}fi w eh} ~`t}ijh} qgqg`joi `j t`h} t`}go`jmghe`} m`tmhjh} }ij meh}gagmhoh}miki t`m`~it`} gjqiepjhtgi} o` tg`}fi* ]` ~pò` ~`j}ht xp` eh hm`~hmgjqiepjhtgh o` pj tg`}fi `} h~tirgkhohk`j` è kg}ki xp` è o` hm`~hmgj oèh kp`t` ~it `ja`tkòho `}` qheit `} h~tirgkhohk`j` 8 r 8>1 ahhegoho`}~it ~`t}ijh bith o` `r~i}gmgj i h}pkg`joi pjh `r~i}gmgj mijgjph 261> bith}~it hi `} 261 r 8>= ahhegoho`} ~it ~`t}ijh hi* H} pj tg`}fi o` 8 r 8>=

ahhegoho`} ~it ~`t}ijh hi `} f`j`thek`j` hm`~hde` ~hth thdhlhoit`}gjop}tghe`}*

H} kg}ki }` `}gkh xp` è jgqè o` tg`}fi ie`thde` ~hth pjh `r~i}gmgjgjqiepjhtgh `} pjh `j kge "8>>' oè qheit o` eh `r~i}gmgj qiepjhtgh `} o`mgth~tirgkhohk`j` 8 r 8>1 ahhegoho`} ~it ~`t}ijh hi i pjh ~i}gdgegoho `j pjkgeej*

@j mij}go`thmgj h ei hj`} `r~p`}i ei} mtg`tgi} o` ie`thjmgh o` tg`}figjogqgophe aglhoi} ~it eh Gjop}tgh ^`tie`th w ^`tixpkgmh jhmgijhe }ij =)hi Gjie`thde`< @e tg`fi} o`d` }`t tòpmgoi hmphexpg`t mi}i*

8>1)hi 5 A q 8>= )hi O`}`hde`< Tòpmmgj hogmgijhe oè tg`}fidh}hoi `j hjeg}g} mi}i d`jàgmgi*T`~t`}`jh eh t`fgj o` tg`}fi tòpmgde`*

A q 8>1 )hi _ie`thde` i kjgki< Tòpmmgj oè tg`}fi }gei} t`mpt}i} ei ~`tkg`j* Hj h~egmhmijm`~i o` mi}i d`jàgmgi*


35/93

T@QG]GIJ A@MBH



ÔQ]H GT]>4

^fgjh =?


ÔQ]H

8>*4 Mtg`tgi o` _ie`thjmgh oè Tg`}fi ]imghe

@e mtg`tgi o` _ie`thjmgh oè Tg`}fi ]imghe aitkpehoi h mijgjphmgj mij}go`th eh`r~`tg`jmgh o` qhtgi} hi} o` i~`thmgj o` ÔQ]H w }p} Ageghe`} hmpkpehjoihji eh} `}ho}gmh} o` hmmgo`j`} mij mij}`mp`jmgh} o` e`}gij`} w ahhegoho`}h ~`t}ijhe ~ti~gi w `tm`ti} miki eh} mij}`mp`jmgh} o` ohi} hkdg`jhe`}~`togoh} kh`tghe`} w o` ~tiopmmgj*

_he`} mij}`mp`jmgh} bhj }goi mh`fitg|hoh} o` hmp`toi h }p }`q`tgoho `j ei}thjfi} o` ]`q`th} Khwit`} w Mhh}tagmh} miki }` `}~`mgagmh `j eh Agfpth6* H}gkg}ki pj hjeg}g} o` eh} at`mp`jmgh} o` he`} hmmgo`j`} mij}go`thjoi èihe o` gj}hehmgij`} o` ÔQ]H w }p} Ageghe`} ~hth pj ~`tioi o`h~tirgkhohk`j` 80 hi} bh ~`tkggoi `}hde`m`t ei} ito`j`} o` khfjgpo i

thjfi} o` at`mp`jmgh} ~gmh} ~hth mhoh pjh o` eh} mh`fith} o` hmmgo`j`}hj`} gjogmhoh}*

@j dh}` h `}` hjeg}g} }` bh `}hde`mgoi eh mptqh o` ie`thjmgh oè tg`}fi }imgheki}thoh `j eh Agf* 6* eh mphe oàgj` ei} thjfi} o` hmmgo`j`} `j oga`t`j`}mh`fith} xp` ~pò`j mij}go`tht}` miki GJ_IE@THDE@] KGJGKI]"_IE@THDE@]' W EH \IJH GJ_@TK@OGH @J EH MPHE EH T@OPMMGIJ O@ETG@]FI @] O@]@HDE@*


36/93

T@QG]GIJ A@MBH



ÔQ]H GT]>4

^fgjh =0


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37/93

T@QG]GIJ A@MBH



ÔQ]H GT]>4

^fgjh =1


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8>*= H~egmhmg j o` ei} Mtg`tgi} o` _ie`thjmgh

Eh mik~hthmgj o` pj tg`}fi mij ei} mtg`tgi} hj`} oàgjgoi} ~pò` pdgmht èjgqè o` tg`}fi hjheg|hoi `j mphexpg`th o` ei} }gfpg`j`} mh}i}4

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]g dg`j `rg}`j gjjpk`thde`} mjgmh} ~hth eh tòpmmgj oè tg`}fi eh} kg}kh}

ji ~pò`j }`t mpdg`th} `j }p ihegoho `j `}` oimpk`ji ~it ei mphe }`~t`}`jhj h mijgjphmgj ei} ~tgjmg~gi} f`j`the`} xp` itg`jhj eh tòpmmgj oètg`}fi*

88*8 Tòpmmg j o` ^tidhdgegoho`} o` Hmmgo`j`}

Eh ~tidhdgegoho o` imptt`jmgh o` pj hmmgo`j` ~pò` `}ht tèhmgijhoh mij ehaheeh o` pj mik~ij`j` eh aheeh o` pj }g}`kh `ttit bpkhji i pjh mikdgjhmgjo` eh} hj`tgit`}* @j mij}`mp`jmgh eh tòpmmgj o` at`mp`jmgh o` hmmgo`j`}~pò` hemhj|ht}` kòghj` eh tòpmmgj o` aheeh} ~it hefpji} o` ei} kioi}}gfpg`j`}4

^fgjh =7


ÔQ]H

ît }p~p`}i è hjeg}g} ji }g`k~t` }`t hj }gk~e` ohoi xp` }` ~t`}`jhtj

mh}i} `j ei} mphe`} hogmgijhek`j` ~iothj impttgt ~togoh} bpkhjh}* @j `}i}mh}i} è mi}i o` eh} kògoh} o` mijtie o`d`t }`t mik~hthoi ho`k} mijtheh} tòpmmgij`} oè tg`}fi }imghe o` khj`th o` ~tiq``t pjh l`thtxpg|hmgj o` eh}oga`t`j`} i~mgij`} `j tkgji} o` }p} t`}~`mgqh} gjq`t}gij`} ~hth ~t`q`jgtahhegoho`}*

84*8 Kìoieifh

^pò`j ~t`}`jht}` oga`t`j`} i~mgij`} ~hth mijtieht pj tg`}fi* @j he`} mh}i}o`d`t `}hde`m`t}` pj dhehjm` `jt` è mi}i o` gk~ehjhmgj o` eh} kògoh} o`mijtie oè tg`}fi w è tg`}fi t`khj`j`* @}` }` t`~t`}`jh ftagmhk`j` `j ehAgfpth 2*

J`}` xp` `j `}h ftagmh }` ikhj `j mp`jh hji eh} ~togoh} ~it ohi}kh`tghe`} miki ~it qgoh} bpkhjh}* Ji id}hj` ji }` ikhtj `j mp`jh~togoh} ~tiopmgoh} ~it t`hmmgj fpd`tjhk`jhe i oè ~degmi ohoi xp` `}h}}ij k} ogamge`} o` mphjgagmht w `j eh khwith o` ei} mh}i} }ij gjhjfgde`}*

H} ~it `l`k~ei pjh mij}`mp`jmgh ~i`jmghe o` pj hmmgo`j` gjop}tghe o` fthjkhfjgpo ~pò` }`t è o``tgiti o` eh gkhf`j w t`~phmgj o` eh mik~hhgjqiepmthoh ~htgmpehtk`j` }g he }`fpgt}è` pj lpgmgi i mphexpg`t iti g~i oèggfgi }` o`kp`}th xp` hefpjh} aheeh} f`t`jmghe`} mijtgdpw`tij h eh imptt`jmghoè hmmgo`j`* @}h ~pdegmgoho hoq`t}h t`~t`}`jh pj o`tgk`ji ~hth eh

mik~hh }pkhk`j` ogamge o` mphjgagmht kij`htghk`j` ~it ei mphe `}`rmepgoi oè hjeg}g} mi}id`jàgmgi*

Bhdg`joi mik~e`hoi eh `qhephmgj `mijkgmh o` ei} ohi} kh`tghe`} w~togoh} bpkhjh} }` ~pò` mhempeht è mi}i hjphe oè hmmgo`j` ~p`}i xp`mijim`ki} }p at`mp`jmgh* Efgmhk`j` `}i} mi}i} o`mt`m`tj h kògoh xpèh at`mp`jmgh i eh} mij}`mp`jmgh} oè hmmgo`j` hkdgj o`mt`m`j "q`t Agfpth 2*'*ît ei hji eh }iepmgj ~gkh }`t hxpèeh mij è kjgki mi}i hjphe o` kògoh}o` mijtie }pkhoi he mi}i o` eh} mij}`mp`jmgh} oè tg`}fi t`khj`j` pjh q`|ikhoh} eh} kògoh}*

]g hjheg|hki} eh Agfpth 2* ~iot`ki} q`t xp` ~hth pj tg`}fi mphexpg`th I }p}

~togoh} hjphe`} }`tj IH # HD* ]g `}` tg`}fi `} tòpmgoi he og}kgjpgt }pat`mp`jmgh i }p} mij}`mp`jmgh} eh ~togoh hjphe ~it ohi} kh`tghe`} w ~togoh}bpkhjh} hkdgj o`mt`m`t*

H} ~io`ki} t`~t`}`jht `j eh ftagmh mphti ~i}gde`} }iepmgij`} go`jgagmhoh}~it ei} ~pji} 8 4 = w ? mpwh} pdgmhmgij`} `}j ohoh} `j dh}` he tg`}fit`}gophe w he mi}i hjphe o` eh} kògoh} o` mijtie }p~`t~p`}i he mi}i o` eh}mij}`mp`jmgh} oè tg`}fi t`}gophe o` mhoh pji o` èei}* ]` ~pò` h~t`mght xpèh }iepmgj ~gkh }`t eh jk`ti = ~p`}i xp` t`~t`}`jh è k`jit mi}i iheo` eh} mphti*


41/93

T@QG]GIJ A@MBH



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84*4 ^`t}ijhe Ha`mhoi

]` ~pò` hagtkht xp` ioi è kpjoi migjmgo` `j xp` è qheit o` eh qgoh bpkhjh`} gjagjgi ji id}hj` `}i ji ji} ~ti~itmgijh jgjfj è`k`ji ~tmgmi xp` ji}~`tkgh è`fgt he`tjhgqh} o` }iepmgj w ~it ei hji ji g`j` jgjfpjh h~egmhmgj*ît iti ehoi ei} t`mpt}i} `mijkgmi} }ij }g`k~t` egkghoi} w ji `} ~i}gde`h}gfjht }p ihegoho h eh }heqhmgj o` eh qgoh bpkhjh* @}i ji} ee`qh h ~`j}ht xpèh jgmh ~i}gmgj lp}h w ahmgde` o` hoi~ht `} eh o` }heqht eh khwit mhjgoho o`qgoh} bpkhjh} mij ei} t`mpt}i} `mijkgmi} og}~ijgde`}*

@} mijq`jg`j` t`mijim`t xp` `}` `} pj `kh }pkhk`j` efgoi w o`dhgoi hjgqè kpjoghe* Bh}h hbith ji bhw pj hmp`toi he t`}~`mi h} J*M* Egjo "Tà* 2'~ti~ij` pj mgath o` 4 r 8>1 P]*/ ~it qgoh bpkhjh H*D* Ae`g}bkhj w K*] Bifb

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Hbith dg`j ikhjoi `j mp`jh jp`}th t`hegoho eh mphe ~pò` }`t ~eh}khoh`}hde`mg`joi pjh `}~`thj|h o` qgoh o` 6> hi} pjh qgoh ge o` thdhli o` ?0hi} w pjh t`kpj`thmgj ~tikògi k`j}phe o` thdhlhoit`} o` eh gjop}tgh~`tie`th o` D}* 16*>>> }` ee`fh h pjh mgath o` =1 r 8>1 D}* ]g h `}h mgathhft`fhki} è mi}i o` ei} }`fpti} }`tqgmgi} kogmi} w ith} mik~`j}hmgij`}id`j`ki} pjh mgath h~tirgkhoh o` ?0 r 8>1D}* @}` qheit he mhkdgi hmphe i}mgeh`j ei} 0 r 8>0 P]/ ei mphe `} `j ej`h mij eh ~ti~i}gmgj o` Fgd}ij*

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`}~`mghek`j` `j eh} xp` khj`lhj kh`tghe`} qiege`} gjaehkhde`} i rgmi} `jmhjgoho`} w mijogmgij`} o` ~tim`}i xp` o``tkgjhj pj hei ~i`jmghe o``r~ei}gij`} gjm`jogi} i jpd`} rgmh}*

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Gjf`jg`th o` O`hee`}

Mij}tpmmgj Htthjxp`

I~`thmgj Mhkdgi} w Kiogagmhmgij`}^hth mhoh pjh o` ogmbh} `h~h} }` gjogmhj h mijgjphmgj eh} kìoieifh} wmtg`tgi} oè Hjeg}g} Mphjghgqi o` Tg`}fi} h }`t `k~e`hoi}*

Eh h~egmhmgj o` ei} kioi} o` HMT `j eh} oga`t`j`} `h~h} o` pjh gj}hehmgj}` `jmp`jth t`}pkgoh `j eh _hdeh 6*

8=*8 Mijm`~pheg|hmgj oè ^tim`}i

O` hmp`toi mij ei `}~`mgagmhoi `j è oimpk`ji ÔQ]HGT]>8Agei}iah oÒg}ì ]`fpti `j `}h `h~h }` o`d` mij}go`tht eh }è`mmgj o` ~tim`}i} w)i`mjieifh} xp` iat`|mhj è k`jit jgqè o` tg`}fi* ^hth èei è kioi k}ho`mphoi ~hth ee`qht h hmhdi eh `qhephmgj `} è ^BH mij}go`thjoi h}~`mi}he`} miki4

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8=*= Gjf`jg`t h D}gmh

Opthj` `}h ah}` w ~t`qgi h eh ~timpth o` `xpg~i} mphjoi }` og}~ij` o`gjaitkhmgj k} ~t`mg}h he miki oghfthkh} o` aepli w o` pd`th} `gj}tpk`jhmgj qhtghde`} o` i~`thmgj `}~`mgagmhmgij`} ~tègkgjht`} whtt`fei} o` `xpg~i} `m* }` o`d` ee`qht h mhdi pj `}pogi BH\I *

Eh} i~mgij`} ~hth eh gj}hehmgj o` }g}`kh} o` }`fptgoho w kggfhmgjf`j`thoh} bh}h ` gjmepw`joi `}h `h~h o`d`tj }`t }ik`goh} h pj `}pogimi}id`jàgmgi ~hth }è`mmgijht hxpèeh} kògoh} xp` ~`tkghj hemhj|ht pjjgqè o` tg`}fi ie`thde` i kjgki h pj mi}i th|ijhde`*

8=*? Gjf`jg`t h o` O`hee`@j `}h `h~h }` t`heg|ht è HMT jgmhk`j` }g bhj impttgoi mhkdgi} `j èog}ì itgfgjhe o` hmp`toi mij ei `}hde`mgoi `j è oimpk`ji ÔQ]HGT]>1Fph ~hth Mhkdgi} i Kiogagmhmgij`} o` Gj}hehmgij`} w @xpg~i}* O` eimijthtgi eh hmgqgoho oè hjeg}g} o` tg`}fi} `j `}h `h~h `}ht egkghoh hh}`fptht eh gk~ehjhmgj o` eh} kògoh} hmitohoh} `j eh} `h~h} ~t`qgh}*

8=*0 Mij}tpmmg j

@j eh `h~h o` mij}tpmmgj }` o`d`tj à`mpht gj}~`mmgij`} w `qhephmgij`}mjgmh} o` }`fptgoho mij è agj o` q`tgagmht ei }gfpg`j`Hmmgijhoi Kiit w he`tjhjoi"]hjodw'

Qèimgoho k`jit heog}ì

74>> Hmmgijhoi Kiit w he`tjhjoi

Opthj` apjmgijhkg`ji 8>?> Hmmgijhoi Kiit w apjmgj mijgjph

Qèimgoho k`jit heog}ì 4?> Hmmgijhoi Kiit w apjmgj mijgjph

Opthj` apjmgijhkg`ji 278 Hmmgijhoi ~it ptdgjh


50/93

T@QG]GIJ A@MBH



ÔQ]H GT]>4

^fgjh ?7


ÔQ]H

_HDEH H*0

Kioi o` Aheeh_h}h

"~it 8>1bith}'Id}`tqhmgij`}

Htthjmhjoi j o`khjoh 8>2> Hmmgijhoi Kiit w he`tjhjoi

Htthjmhjoi j o`khjoh 821 Hmmgijhoi Kiit w he`tjhjoi

Htthjmhjoi j o`khjoh 414 Hmmgijhoi ~it ptdgjh

Htthjmhjoi j o`khjoh ?40 @emtgmh ]g}`kh Mijth Gjm`jogi}

Htthjmhjoi j o`khjoh 826 Og`}è ]g}`kh Mijth Gjm`jogi

H*4*= T`mg~g`j`}H*4*=*8 At`mp`jmgh o` Aheeh}

O`}mtg~mgj

T`mg~g`j`} ~t`}ptg|hoi} gjmepw`joi ioh} eh} qeqpeh} pd`th} w hmm`}itgi}bh}h eh ~tgk`th dtgoh gjmepw`joi }h egkh* @}h mh`fith h~egmh ~htht`mg~g`j`} he`} miki }`~hthoit`} o`}~ilhoit`} `m*

_HDEH H*1

AT@MP@JMGH O@ AHEEH_HKHI O@E ITGAGMGI 80 r 8>? ~it t`mg~g`j` hjphe

40 kk >0?

0> kk >27

80> kk >71

Tipth _ihe 8>

Tipth _ihe Mij}go`thjoi è ogk`ti gj`tji o` eh pd`th o` khwit ogk`timij`mhoh he t`mg~g`j`*

H*4*=*4 _h}h o` Aheeh}

O`}mtg~mgj

T`mg~g`j`} `rmepw`joi< q`jì} qeqpeh} o` }`fptgoho dtgoh} hmm`}itgi}*


51/93

T@QG]GIJ A@MBH



ÔQ]H GT]>4

^fgjh 0>


ÔQ]H

_HDEH H*6

Kioi o` Aheeh_h}h


^togoh o` apjmgj >720 Kègmi Hki}atgmi

^togoh o` apjmgj 848 JiKègmi Hki}atgmi

^togoh o` apjmgj >>8>7 Kègmi ^t`}ptg|hoi

Aepli t`}tgjfgoi >>1=1 Kègmi ^t`}ptg|hoi

H*4*? Gj`tmhkdghoit o` Mheit

H*4*?*8 At`mp`jmgh o` Aheeh}

O`}mtg~mgj

@e gj`tmhkdghoit pdi)mhtmh|h gjmepw`joi pd`th} qeqpeh} hmm`}itgi} bh}heh ~tgk`th dtgoh gjmepw`joi }h egkh*

At`mp`jmgh o` aheeh ; 80 r 8>? ~it t`mg~g`j` hjphe ~it apfh ogt`mh `j mhtmh|h*

At`mp`jmgh o` aheeh ; 8= r 8>0 ~it t`mg~g`j` hjphe ~it tipth o` pdi*

Jih4

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ÔQ]H

_HDEH H*7

Kioi o` Aheeh_h}h

"~it 8>1bith}'

^togoh o` apjmgj =88

Apfh : 8)? 402

H*4*0 _pd`t h}

H*4*0*8 At`mp`jmgh o` Aheeh}

O`}mtg~mgj

_pd`th} `rmepw`joi qeqpeh} w dtgoh} ji mij}go`th q`tgmhe`} jg ej`h} o` aepli`j ~ehhaitkh}*

_HDEH H*8>

Ogk`ti o` _pd`thAt`mp`jmgh o` Aheeh

"~it k`ti o` pd`th hjphe'

k`jit i gfphe h = "Gjmep}gq`' 6> r 8>0

`jt` ? w 88 "Gjmep}gq`' =1 r 8>0

Khwit i gfphe h 84 46 r 8>0

_HDEH H*88

_hkhi o` Hfpl`ti}"ok)O'

^ "o 5 ok'

>>0 >1>

>44 >20

>?0 >70

8>> 8>>

JI_H4

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_HDEH H*84

Kioi o` Aheeh_h}h

"~it 8>1kgeeh rbith}'Id}`tqhmgij`}

Mhh}tagmh >>412 _pd`th o` K`he

Tipth _ihe >220 _pd`th o` ~e}gmi tfgoi

H*4*1 Dtgoh}


O`}mtg~mgj

Pjgj dtgohoh* Jitkhek`j` aheehj ~it ~`togoh o` ~`tji} w p`tmh} w aheeh o``k~hmhopth}*

_HDEH H*8=

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Kioi o` Aheeh_h}h


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H*4*6 Q eqpeh}


O`}mtg~mgj

Mp`t~i o` qeqpeh t`}it` w `k~hmhopth* @rmepw`joi pjgij`} dtgohoh}*


54/93

T@QG]GIJ A@MBH



ÔQ]H GT]>4

^fgjh 0=


ÔQ]H

_HDEH H*80

At`mp`jmgh o` Aheeh 22 r 8>0 ~it qeqpeh hjphe

_hkhi oè Hfpl`ti"ok)O'

^ "o 5 ok'

>>0 >10

>8> >22

>4> >7?

8>> 8>>

H*4*6*4 _h}h o` Aheeh}

O`}mtg~mgj

Qeqpeh}

_HDEH H*81

Kioi o` Aheeh_h}h


^togoh o` Apjmgj =82 T``jmgj ji i~`thoh

^togoh o` Apjmgj >804 KhjpheAhe}h i~`thmgj 8=1 I~`thoh} ~it Kiit

Ahe}h i~`thmgj =07 I~`thoh} J`pkgmhk`j`

^togoh o` Apjmgj ?26 I~`thoh} ~it ]ie`jigo`

Ahe}h i~`thmgj >?>7 I~`thoh} ~it ]ie`jigo`

Hd`tpth t`khpth 812 Qeqpeh} ]`fptgoho T`}it`

Aheeh he M`ttht 818 T``jmgj i~`thoh

Aheeh he M`ttht 44 T``jmgj ji i~`thoh

Aheeh he Hdtgt >8?0 T``jmgj ji i~`thoh

^togoh o` Apjmgj >478 Qeqpeh KhjpheJi mhkdgh o` ~i}gmgj `jo`khjoh

002 Qeqpeh} i~`thoh} ~it kiit

Ji mhkdgh o` ~i}gmgj `jo`khjoh

44Qeqpeh} i~`thoh}J`pkgmhk`j`

Ji mhkdgh o` ~i}gmgj `jo`khjoh

42=Qeqpeh} i~`thoh} ~it]ie`jigo`

]` khjg`j` hdg`th 0>Qeqpeh }`fptgoho i~`thoh ~it~geii


55/93

T@QG]GIJ A@MBH



ÔQ]H GT]>4

^fgjh 0?


ÔQ]H

_HDEH H*81 "MIJ_*'

Kioi o` Aheeh_h}h


Ji hdt` j o`khjoh ?80Qeqpeh }`fptgoho i~`thoh ~it~geii

]` khjg`j` hdg`th 082 Qeqpeh }`fptgoho o` t`}it`

Ji hdt` j o`khjoh >484 Qeqpeh }`fptgoho o` t`}it`

H*4*2 Hmm`}itgi}


O`}mtg~mgj

^`xpì itgagmgi o` hmm`}itgi} i gj}tpk`ji `rmepw`joi h eh} pjgij`} dtgohoh}*

_HDEH H*86

At`mp`jmgh o` Aheeh ?6 r 8>? ~it hmm`}itgi hjphe

_hkhi oè Hfpl`ti"ok)O'

^ "o 5 ok'

>8 >8=

>4 >4>8> 8>>


56/93

T@QG]GIJ A@MBH



ÔQ]H GT]>4

^fgjh 00


ÔQ]H

H*4*7 F`j`the`}

_h}h o` Aheeh

_HDEH H*82

@xpg~i Kioi o` Aheeh _h}h"~it 8>1bith}'

Kiit HM ^togoh o` Apjmgj 804

Gjopmmgj Kiit`} HM ^togoh o` Apjmgj =4>

Kiit OM ^togoh o` Apjmgj 440

Dh`th} êikiHmgoi O`}mhtfhoh 440Dh`th JgxpèMhokgi ^togoh o` Apjmgj >408

Mhtfhoit`} dh`th} Ji f`j`th mhtfh emtgmh 61>

Mgtmpgi} gj`ttp~it`} HM I~`thmgj h o`}g`k~i 860

Mgtmpgi} gj`ttp~it`} OM I~`thmgj h o`}g`k~i =2>

Gjq`tgoit`} ]gj }hegoh 426

Ap}gde`} ^togoh o` Apjmgj >1=?

Tèhw}~ti`mit`} ^togoh o` Apjmgj 878Tèhw}~ti`mit`} I~`thmgj h o`}g`k~i >>1

Tèhw}~ti`mit`} Mhkdgi o` }hoi t`th}i >>>422

Tèhw}~ti`mit`} Mhkdgi t`khpti o``}hoi

>>>072

_thj}aitkhoit`} o` io`t ^togoh o` Apjmgj 40=

_thj}aitkhoit`} t`mgagmhoit`} ]hegoh ]p~tgkgoh 8>6

F`j`thoit`} o` @k`tf`jmgh

Og`}è

Aheeh j apjmgijhkg`ji 440>>

_thj}kg}it`}7>


57/93

T@QG]GIJ A@MBH



ÔQ]H GT]>4

^fgjh 01


ÔQ]H

_HDEH H*82 "MIJ_*'


Aepli J`pkgmi "^t`}gjoga`t`jmghe'

^togoh o` Apjmgj 882>

Aepli J`pkgmi "Ht`hqhtghde`'

^togoh o` Apjmgj 71=

Jgqè J`pkgmi ^togoh o` Apjmgj 8?8>

Jgqè J`pkgmi "^t`}gj

oga`t`jmghe'

^togoh o` Apjmgj 77=

Jgqè J`pkgmi "Aeihj`' ^togoh o` Apjmgj 826>

^t`}gj J`pkgmi ^togoh o` Apjmgj 78=

_ k~`thpth ^togoh o` Apjmgj 76>

^t`}gj oga`t`jmghe ^togoh o` Apjmgj 101

Gj`ttp~it`} o` Aepli @emtgmi} ^togoh o` Apjmgj 412

Gj`ttp~it`} o` Aepli @emtgmi} Apjmgijh }gj }`he >21

Gj`ttp~it`} o` Aepli @emtgmi} Aheeh he hmgqht }`he ?4>

Gj`ttp~it`} o` Jgqè @emtgmi} ^togoh o` Apjmgj 86?

Gj`ttp~it`} o` Jgqè @emtgmi} Apjmgijh }gj }`he >740

Gj`ttp~it`} o` Jgqè @emtgmi} Aheeh he hmgqht }`he >86

Gj`ttp~it`} o` ^t`}gj@emtgmi}

^togoh o` Apjmgj ?71

Gj`ttp~it`} o` ^t`}gj@emtgmi}Apjmgijh }gj }`he >>6

Gj`ttp~it`} o` ^t`}gj@emtgmi}

Aheeh he hmgqht }`he >?>

Gj`ttp~it`} o` _`k~*@emtgmi}

^togoh o` Apjmgj 442


58/93

T@QG]GIJ A@MBH



ÔQ]H GT]>4

^fgjh 06


ÔQ]H

_HDEH H*82 "MIJ_*'



Apjmgijh }gj }`he 881


Aheeh he hmgqht }`he =?>

Gj`ttp~it`} o` qèimgoho@emtgmi}

^togoh o` Apjmgj >?2


Apjmgijh }gj }`he >80


Aheeh he hmgqht }`he >06

Gj`ttp~it`} o` aepliJ`pkgmi}

^togoh o` Apjmgj ?>

Gj`ttp~it`} o` aepliJ`pkgmi}

Apjmgijh }gj }`he >11

Gj`ttp~it`} o` aepliJ`pkgmi} T`th}hoi 8=>

Gj`ttp~it`} o` JgqèJ`pkgmi

^togoh o` Apjmgj >14


Aheeh he hmgqht }`he >0?


T`th}hoi 86>

Gj`ttp~it`} o` ~t`}gjJ`pkgmi

^togoh o` Apjmgj 04>


Apjmgj }gj }`he >?6


Aheeh he hmgqht }`he 86>


T`th}hoh 82>


59/93

T@QG]GIJ A@MBH



ÔQ]H GT]>4

^fgjh 02


ÔQ]H

_HDEH H*82 "MIJ_*'


Gj`ttp~it`} o` `k~*J`pkgmi

^togoh o` Apjmgj 0>>

Gj`ttp~it`} o` `k~*J`pkgmi

T`th}hoh =>>

O``mit o` eehkh ^togoh o` Apjmgj ?=4>

Gjogmhmgj o` `k~`thpth

"^gtk`ti o` thoghmgj' ^togoh o` Apjmgj 4?2>

_thj}opmit`}

Mittg`j J`pkgmi} ^togoh o` Apjmgj 142

Mijtiehoit`} ^togoh o` Apjmgj 122

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ÔQ]H GT]>4

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@j eh Agfpth H*8 }` id}`tqh eh ~tidhdgegoho `}gkhoh o` gfjgmgj o` apfh} o` fh}

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H*?*0 Gfjgmg j T`htohoh o` _pd`th} w êhjh} "Tà* 8='

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D*=*=*= Kioèi Mbitti o` Ap`fi "L` Agt`'

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Criterios para el Análisis Cuantitativo de Riesgos

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