CAP 6 Mercado Regional y Mundial Del Gas Natural

Mercados Internacional Gas NaturalPrecios SPOT y Futuros6 Capitulo

AgendaOferta y DemandaOferta mundial, regional y localDemanda mundial, regional y localBalance y Comercio Internacional

Formacin de precios del gas naturalFactores que definen los precios en mercados madurosEvolucin de precios SPOT y FuturosPrecios en Sudamerica

Desarrollo del consumo de gas naturalPrincipales sectores de consumoCompetitividad del gas naturalViabilidad economica de nuevos suministros

Oferta y Demanda mundial

Fuente: Oil & Gas Journal 01.01.2005GRFICO DE RESERVAS DE GAS NATURAL EN EL MUNDO

GRFICO DE RESERVAS DE GAS NATURAL EN EL MUNDO Fuente: Oil & Gas Journal 01.01.2005

Rusia : 1680 TCFNorth Field Qatar : 450 TCFUSA : 189 TCFVenezuela : 151 TCFTrinidad & Tobago : 26 TCFMexico : 15 TCFReservas Probadas de Gas Natural. 01.01.2005 Per : 8.7 TCFPer : 8.7 TCFFuente : Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 102, No. 47 (December 20, 2004)

PRINCIPALES PRODUCTORES DE GAS NATURAL EN EL MUNDO Fuente: Energy Information Administration

PRINCIPALES OFERTANTES DE GAS NATURAL LICUEFACTADO Fuente: Energy Information Administration

Los Mercados del Gas Natural Demanda

Fuente: Energy Information AdministrationGRFICO DE CONSUMO DE GAS NATURAL EN EL MUNDO

EVOLUCIN DEL CONSUMO MUNDIAL DE GAS NATURAL Fuente: Energy Information Administration

MAYORES DEMANDANTES DE GAS NATURAL EN EL MUNDOFuente: Energy Information Administration

MAYORES DEMANDANTES DE GAS NATURAL LICUEFACTADOFuente: Energy Information Administration

Importaciones de Gas Natural USA 01.01.2001

Oferta y Demanda regional

GRFICO DE RESERVAS DE GAS NATURAL EN LA REGIN Fuente: Oil & Gas Journal 01.01.2005

GRFICO DE DEMANDA DE GAS NATURAL EN LA REGIN

AgendaOferta y DemandaOferta mundial, regional y localDemanda mundial, regional y localBalance y Comercio Internacional

Formacin de precios del gas naturalFactores que definen los precios en mercados madurosEvolucin de precios SPOT y FuturosPrecios en Sudamerica

Desarrollo del consumo de gas naturalPrincipales sectores de consumoCompetitividad del gas naturalViabilidad economica de nuevos suministros

Tres principales mercados regionales de gas naturalMercados Internacionales del Gas Natural

Mercado SPOT del Gas NaturalEs el Mercado del gas natural regido por la Oferta y Demanda, cuyos precios varan da a da, momento a momento. Mercado de US (Henry Hub);Mercado Americano

Similar tendencia de volatilidad pero debajo del Precio SPOT del WTISources: Natural Gas Intelligence, EIAPRECIOS SPOT DEL GAS NATURAL EN USA

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7.59137931034.82

7.86724137934.96

7.98793103455.22

8.12241379315.43

8.34655172415.59

8.33965517245.57

8.4241379315.41

8.54482758625.23

8.57931034485.45

8.53965517246.23

8.54482758626.43

8.64827586215.42

8.59482758625.72

8.80689655176.07

8.96206896556

9.06206896556.21

9.20689655175.64

9.255.69

9.22241379315.37

9.28620689665.39

9.42931034485.76

9.46379310345.65

9.23965517245.65

9.18620689666.12

9.47068965527.25

9.39827586217.38

9.6258620697.12

9.57241379317.76

9.71896551727.78

9.05517241388.12

8.78448275866.83

8.92758620696.44

8.63793103456.98

8.55172413796.88

8.7758620697.26

8.41379310347.41

8.56034482766.07

8.46551724146.64

8.17241379315.85

8.39655172416.12

8.18965517246.18

8.15517241385.89

8.09482758626.01

7.94827586216.57

8.07758620696.05

7.98275862075.58

8.43103448284.79

8.35862068975.25

8.40344827595.23

8.47241379314.95

8.57068965526.81

8.4758620696.79

7.85517241386.77

12/25/03$18.85

WTI Spot Price

Henry Hub Spot Price

Dollars per Million Btu

Sheet1

WTI Spot PriceNYMEX Natural Gas Settlement PriceHenry Hub Spot Price

1/2/023.6432.4652.57

1/3/023.5602.2682.5

1/4/023.7022.2752.36

1/7/023.6932.2722.31

1/8/023.5902.2812.38

1/9/023.5032.2282.321

1/10/023.5312.1852.32

1/11/023.3912.2042.31

1/14/023.2552.2502.32

1/15/023.2742.2912.37

1/16/023.2692.3942.39

1/17/023.1382.2542.4

1/18/023.1072.2362.29

1/21/022.29

1/22/023.1662.1062.19

1/23/023.2932.0762.11

1/24/023.3742.0482.13

1/25/023.4142.0372.04

1/28/023.4571.9082.02

1/29/023.3282.0061.98

1/30/023.2952.0802.08

1/31/023.3982.1382.14

2/1/023.5172.1382.2

2/4/023.4522.1172.18

2/5/023.4592.0742.2

2/6/023.4092.1012.14

2/7/023.4052.1502.16

2/8/023.4912.1912.2

2/11/023.6712.2862.21

2/12/023.5792.3052.39

2/13/023.6532.2452.37

2/14/023.6532.1862.27

2/15/023.7022.2062.18

2/18/022.18

2/19/023.5812.3972.31

2/20/023.5022.3852.43

2/21/023.5882.4252.39

2/22/023.6072.4492.4

2/25/023.4902.3072.4

2/26/023.6842.3882.45

2/27/023.6902.4272.48

2/28/023.7552.3572.48

3/1/023.8572.3592.49

3/4/023.8882.4882.68

3/5/023.9972.4672.63

3/6/024.0212.5662.52

3/7/024.0722.7562.72

3/8/024.1162.8002.81

3/11/024.2003.0212.9

3/12/024.2333.0182.93

3/13/024.1622.8702.96

3/14/024.2212.9242.79

3/15/024.2193.0762.99

3/18/024.3163.3053.16

3/19/024.3143.2563.33

3/20/024.2973.4313.3

3/21/024.4383.1113.19

3/22/024.4073.3263.54

3/25/024.4293.4573.45

3/26/024.4403.4723.59

3/27/024.4473.2903.38

3/28/024.5193.2833.19

4/1/024.6243.5313.42

4/2/024.7843.6543.72

4/3/024.7503.5063.68

4/4/024.5933.3333.56

4/5/024.5193.2753.31

4/8/024.5103.3273.36

4/9/024.3883.2013.25

4/10/024.5093.1843.25

4/11/024.2983.1033.14

4/12/024.0533.1253.08

4/15/024.2293.4303.27

4/16/024.2973.2943.43

4/17/024.4723.4773.4

4/18/024.4623.4853.51

4/19/024.5573.5273.4

4/22/024.5313.5963.58

4/23/024.5313.5913.63

4/24/024.5313.4193.53

4/25/024.5453.2953.47

4/26/024.6763.3193.32

4/29/024.7333.5613.44

4/30/024.7103.7953.65

5/1/024.5833.7353.79

5/2/024.5363.6843.65

5/3/024.6123.7453.71

5/6/024.5023.5953.61

5/7/024.6193.6733.49

5/8/024.7863.7463.74

5/9/024.7903.7193.72

5/10/024.8143.7493.71

5/13/024.9343.7833.61

5/14/025.0293.8553.75

5/15/024.8573.6403.62

5/16/024.8283.6093.44

5/17/024.8603.5983.42

5/20/024.8693.4903.44

5/21/024.7163.3953.33

5/22/024.6573.4593.38

5/23/024.5863.4383.38

5/24/024.6023.3473.22

5/27/023.22

5/28/024.3243.2803.21

5/29/024.4213.4203.29

5/30/024.2723.2223.34

5/31/024.3743.2173.15

6/3/024.3283.2423.18

6/4/024.3663.3283.3

6/5/024.3143.2603.28

6/6/024.2913.1823.2

6/7/024.2623.2043.11

6/10/024.1793.1353.14

6/11/024.1743.1323.1

6/12/024.2743.0573.14

6/13/024.4033.2113.03

6/14/024.4663.3423.12

6/17/024.4793.3773.34

6/18/024.3723.3123.23

6/19/024.4093.3143.23

6/20/024.4173.2163.29

6/21/024.3983.2373.17

6/24/024.5363.4303.33

6/25/024.4933.4493.49

6/26/024.5983.3533.42

6/27/024.6163.2363.23

6/28/024.6193.2453.2

7/1/024.6193.1923.27

7/2/024.6263.1453.17

7/3/024.6243.1423.1

7/4/023.1

7/5/024.6243.1

7/8/024.5072.9393.06

7/9/024.5102.9912.98

7/10/024.6092.8643.04

7/11/024.6572.8302.85

7/12/024.7382.7872.86

7/15/024.6952.7842.82

7/16/024.7722.8632.89

7/17/024.8072.8412.98

7/18/024.7412.9432.86

7/19/024.7982.9332.95

7/22/024.5882.9473.01

7/23/024.5882.8892.96

7/24/024.6173.0422.91

7/25/024.5982.9023.03

7/26/024.5782.9362.94

7/29/024.5762.9763.06

7/30/024.7292.8912.98

7/31/024.6592.9543.04

8/1/024.5712.8423.07

8/2/024.6332.8582.91

8/5/024.5782.6782.81

8/6/024.6862.7162.79

8/7/024.5832.6602.73

8/8/024.5982.7452.75

8/9/024.6332.7612.83

8/12/024.8002.9652.91

8/13/024.8882.9753.03

8/14/024.8602.9103.03

8/15/024.9983.1272.92

8/16/025.0413.1493.1

8/19/025.1483.2673.1

8/20/025.1933.1663.26

8/21/025.2363.2743.22

8/22/025.1913.5153.38

8/23/025.1713.4873.49

8/26/025.0403.6173.51

8/27/024.9723.4833.48

8/28/024.8813.2883.33

8/29/024.9713.2503.26

8/30/024.9953.2963.12

9/2/023.12

9/3/024.7863.1323.1

9/4/024.8763.1933.12

9/5/025.0103.3423.19

9/6/025.0883.2653.38

9/9/025.1383.3993.24

9/10/025.1073.3563.35

9/11/025.1333.2503.32

9/12/024.9913.3293.22

9/13/025.1433.4673.36

9/16/025.0243.5073.44

9/17/025.0143.6793.46

9/18/025.0983.7873.79

9/19/025.0843.8563.89

9/20/025.1123.7583.94

9/23/025.3193.9783.87

9/24/025.3093.7423.98

9/25/025.2913.4943.75

9/26/025.2263.6863.59

9/27/025.2644.0413.76

9/30/025.2744.1384.09

10/1/025.2954.0674.38

10/2/025.2744.1604.24

10/3/025.1263.7244.26

10/4/025.1123.7393.85

10/7/025.1123.7403.77

10/8/025.0973.8623.86

10/9/025.0533.9183.91

10/10/024.9933.8283.94

10/11/025.0624.1463.79

10/14/025.1834.3034.19

10/15/025.1264.2474.2

10/16/025.0484.2274.1

10/17/025.1054.2994.09

10/18/025.0974.2394.11

10/21/024.8814.1574.23

10/22/024.8164.1104.2

10/23/024.8604.2604.24

10/24/024.8054.1334.31

10/25/024.6714.0284.11

10/28/024.6984.1764.17

10/29/024.6224.1264.19

10/30/024.6294.3894.33

10/31/024.6864.1564.38

11/1/024.6624.0604.06

11/4/024.6363.8633.94

11/5/024.4933.8833.9

11/6/024.4343.8543.93

11/7/024.3723.8313.91

11/8/024.4533.9033.77

11/11/024.4863.7783.83

11/12/024.5163.8723.83

11/13/024.3593.8773.83

11/14/024.3793.8693.9

11/15/024.3973.9813.91

11/18/024.6054.2634.18

11/19/024.5534.2614.25

11/20/024.6554.2544.27

11/21/024.6674.3514.24

11/22/024.7814.2604.32

11/25/024.6574.2614.33

11/26/024.5864.1404.21

11/27/024.6334.2004.19

11/28/024.19

11/29/024.19

12/2/024.7024.3204.23

12/3/024.7144.2264.35

12/4/024.6214.2984.23

12/5/024.7024.4064.35

12/6/024.6604.3834.39

12/9/024.7054.3594.32

12/10/024.7814.6364.39

12/11/024.7404.7094.64

12/12/024.8625.0894.82

12/13/024.8955.2845.04

12/16/025.1985.3415.31

12/17/025.1795.2405.14

12/18/025.2435.2784.98

12/19/025.2715.0475.14

12/20/025.2715.1835.05

12/23/025.5335.1165.03

12/24/025.5405.1465.03

12/25/025.03

12/26/025.6224.9625

12/27/025.6344.9884.78

12/30/025.4164.8004.75

12/31/025.3814.7894.6

1/1/034.6

1/2/035.5125.2514.94

1/3/035.7345.3445.13

1/6/035.5674.9354.95

1/7/035.3795.1274.89

1/8/035.2865.1615.07

1/9/035.5095.3045.05

1/10/035.4475.1435.21

1/13/035.5315.2515.22

1/14/035.5905.1075.25

1/15/035.7295.4305.22

1/16/035.7905.6455.51

1/17/035.8415.5365.68

1/20/035.68

1/21/035.9695.4335.47

1/22/035.9175.6735.68

1/23/035.8455.4586.56

1/24/036.0315.5245.92

1/27/035.5915.3965.92

1/28/035.6385.4445.5

1/29/035.7835.6605.62

1/30/035.8245.5835.76

1/31/035.7785.6055.58

2/3/035.6625.7665.72

2/4/035.7955.7626.26

2/5/035.8475.6446.24

2/6/035.9245.8286.08

2/7/036.0436.0436.29

2/10/035.9415.8526.34

2/11/036.1095.9776.19

2/12/036.1785.7856.2

2/13/036.3165.7405.84

2/14/036.3125.8515.87

2/17/035.87

2/18/036.3595.9116.1

2/19/036.3836.1346.1

2/20/036.2846.1626.39

2/21/036.3386.6066.74

2/24/036.4299.13712.26

2/25/036.2179.57718.85

2/26/036.5459.13310.36

2/27/036.3507.4858.45

2/28/036.3388.10110.65

3/3/036.2247.1628.56

3/4/036.3717.0417.76

3/5/036.3557.0217.81

3/6/036.4166.8447.59

3/7/036.5106.9937.42

3/10/036.4106.5156.79

3/11/036.3475.9446.25

3/12/036.5295.8655.78

3/13/036.2165.3615.75

3/14/036.1055.4295.17

3/17/036.0215.5075.33

3/18/035.4405.3395.13

3/19/035.1745.2785.2

3/20/034.9345.3065.2

3/21/034.6865.1285.06

3/24/035.0885.2535.07

3/25/035.7625.0775.06

3/26/034.9505.0974.91

3/27/035.2265.1464.86

3/28/035.2095.1465.07

3/31/035.3695.0604.98

4/1/035.0835.1254.9

4/2/034.9225.0654.89

4/3/035.0094.9194.92

4/4/034.8984.9434.86

4/7/034.7865.1345

4/8/034.8225.1085.21

4/9/034.9885.1955.11

4/10/034.6905.4195.18

4/11/034.8765.4115.28

4/14/034.8985.5525.28

4/15/035.0795.6535.53

4/16/035.0285.6775.62

4/17/035.1905.7095.53

4/18/035.53

4/21/035.3035.7135.55

4/22/035.1595.6455.57

4/23/034.8345.5695.58

4/24/034.7455.4745.47

4/25/034.4695.4775.38

4/28/034.3535.1235.28

4/29/034.3665.2365.11

4/30/034.4985.3855.25

5/1/034.4915.2675.32

5/2/034.4385.2555.24

5/5/034.5575.6895.37

5/6/034.4225.5685.64

5/7/034.5245.6605.48

5/8/034.6455.7725.66

5/9/034.7675.8065.74

5/12/034.7145.9835.9

5/13/034.9166.3085.98

5/14/035.0366.3146.17

5/15/034.9266.1316.24

5/16/035.0126.1225.95

5/19/034.9726.0156.08

5/20/035.0506.0565.93

5/21/035.0886.1986.07

5/22/035.0166.0356.09

5/23/035.1286.1195.91

5/26/035.84

5/27/035.0415.9005.84

5/28/034.9075.9455.71

5/29/035.0266.0665.76

5/30/035.0976.2515.98

6/2/035.2976.4126.21

6/3/035.3076.3606.25

6/4/035.1406.3756.41

6/5/035.3176.5216.17

6/6/035.3906.5106.26

6/9/035.4076.3146.25

6/10/035.4696.3306.08

6/11/035.5476.2136.06

6/12/035.4165.6065.86

6/13/035.2815.6755.44

6/16/035.3695.7065.44

6/17/035.3595.7125.66

6/18/035.2215.5815.54

6/19/035.1485.9415.53

6/20/035.2815.8055.67

6/23/035.2105.8635.87

6/24/035.1815.6975.85

6/25/035.4575.7575.64

6/26/034.9955.2915.51

6/27/035.0315.3625.19

6/30/035.1985.4115.35

7/1/035.2435.3175.22

7/2/035.2225.1995.05

7/3/035.2405.2264.97

7/4/034.97

7/7/035.1865.3815.2

7/8/035.2285.5035.41

7/9/035.3225.5205.56

7/10/035.3525.2585.4

7/11/035.4025.1545.29

7/14/035.3795.1025.15

7/15/035.4485.0205.18

7/16/035.3794.9345

7/17/035.4215.0504.97

7/18/035.5105.0225.01

7/21/035.4605.1075.11

7/22/035.2074.8685.04

7/23/035.1954.8764.88

7/24/035.2974.7314.88

7/25/035.2264.7064.68

7/28/035.1694.7004.67

7/29/035.2094.6934.72

7/30/035.2914.6684.69

7/31/035.2694.7184.63

8/1/035.5574.8744.7

8/4/035.4834.6304.82

8/5/035.5764.6774.71

8/6/035.4784.7454.74

8/7/035.5885.0824.85

8/8/035.5575.0375.02

8/11/035.5025.1295.07

8/12/035.5025.2175.06

8/13/035.3195.1795.17

8/14/035.3194.8915.13

8/15/035.3474.8484.84

8/18/035.3124.8834.94

8/19/035.3034.9644.99

8/20/035.3385.1195.03

8/21/035.4795.2755.14

8/22/035.4555.2805.24

8/25/035.4195.0835.28

8/26/035.5195.0385.09

8/27/035.3764.9275.12

8/28/035.4164.9444.93

8/29/035.4764.7314.88

9/1/034.88

9/2/035.0984.6394.62

9/3/035.0744.6944.68

9/4/034.9784.8104.68

9/5/034.9884.7714.77

9/8/034.9744.6614.82

9/9/035.0384.7304.7

9/10/035.0714.9684.78

9/11/034.9764.7384.85

9/12/034.8724.7664.65

9/15/034.8534.6854.65

9/16/034.7594.6614.67

9/17/034.6554.6424.61

9/18/034.7004.4714.51

9/19/034.6434.4834.33

9/22/034.6504.4944.37

9/23/034.6554.5114.51

9/24/034.8604.5884.59

9/25/034.8784.5424.55

9/26/034.8644.4304.41

9/29/034.8884.8954.57

9/30/035.0334.8304.67

10/1/035.0744.6774.47

10/2/035.1434.6864.42

10/3/035.2364.7674.33

10/6/035.2414.9044.4

10/7/035.2555.1404.65

10/8/035.1035.1484.84

10/9/035.3405.4944.77

10/10/035.5195.6524.92

10/13/035.5025.5474.97

10/14/035.4625.4754.82

10/15/035.4725.4314.93

10/16/035.4335.4114.93

10/17/035.2785.0364.57

10/20/035.2364.7724.29

10/21/035.2054.8754.64

10/22/035.1724.9244.88

10/23/035.2264.9134.91

10/24/035.1714.7864.78

10/27/035.1644.5124.56

10/28/035.0984.4864.44

10/29/034.9914.4594.5

10/30/034.9434.7104.4

10/31/035.0414.8933.99

11/3/034.9674.7054.12

11/4/034.9764.7274.01

11/5/035.2224.8974.45

11/6/035.2164.6584.75

11/7/035.2984.7064.48

11/10/035.3474.7114.42

11/11/035.3814.8694.53

11/12/035.4094.7394.77

11/13/035.4984.7974.6

11/14/035.5715.1124.63

11/17/035.4744.7644.48

11/18/035.7174.8654.34

11/19/035.6624.7384.46

11/20/035.6674.6184.36

11/21/035.5624.6344.14

11/24/035.1714.6824.57

11/25/035.1764.8604.48

11/26/035.2294.9254.86

11/27/034.86

11/28/034.86

12/1/035.1535.2835.02

12/2/035.3005.5795.45

12/3/035.2785.7565.45

12/4/035.3866.3375.71

12/5/035.2906.1356.29

12/8/035.5316.9026.06

12/9/035.4696.7226.52

12/10/035.5036.7116.65

12/11/035.5196.6156.57

12/12/035.7007.2216.73

12/15/035.7196.9546.64

12/16/035.6796.7476.58

12/17/035.7526.9936.56

12/18/035.8147.1226.98

12/19/035.6576.9826.93

12/22/035.4676.3246.3

12/23/035.5226.1435.57

12/24/035.6886.3795.5

12/25/035.5

12/26/035.5

12/29/035.6056.1505.46

12/30/035.6916.6005.96

12/31/035.6056.1895.77

1/1/045.77

1/2/045.77

1/5/045.8126.8276.26

1/6/045.7837.0827.04

1/7/045.7886.8786.63

1/8/045.9097.0946.4

1/9/045.9287.2876.89

1/12/046.0216.9066.25

1/13/045.9076.3296.25

1/14/045.9696.3875.74

1/15/045.7955.8456.02

1/16/046.0625.9405.41

1/19/045.41

1/20/046.2436.2916.15

1/21/046.1266.1506.27

1/22/046.0555.8346.02

1/23/046.0246.0595.82

1/26/045.9335.7275.7

1/27/045.8605.7165.86

1/28/045.7985.7756.04

1/29/045.6665.6596

1/30/045.7175.3975.81

2/2/045.8665.5745.52

2/3/045.8975.6515.7

2/4/045.7005.6545.74

2/5/045.7345.4005.54

2/6/045.6025.3545.38

2/9/045.6745.3495.44

2/10/045.8675.4045.5

2/11/045.8505.2605.35

2/12/045.8675.4515.35

2/13/045.9505.5365.62

2/16/045.62

2/17/046.0575.3195.43

2/18/046.1075.3565.33

2/19/046.1745.2355.28

2/20/046.1725.1935.2

2/23/046.1645.1275.11

2/24/046.1815.0775.08

2/25/046.4285.1505.1

2/26/046.1125.3915.13

2/27/046.2215.4165.27

3/1/046.3535.5505.17

3/2/046.3105.5655.37

3/3/046.1725.3755.34

3/4/046.3475.4575.17

3/5/046.4335.4435.32

3/8/046.2985.3935.42

3/9/046.2575.4385.34

3/10/046.2435.3975.33

3/11/046.3715.6435.33

3/12/046.2435.5965.53

3/15/046.4555.7185.59

3/16/046.4415.6885.6

3/17/046.5885.7225.61

3/18/046.5195.6315.63

3/19/046.5675.5825.48

3/22/046.4005.5465.46

3/23/046.5195.5305.36

3/24/046.3905.4295.35

3/25/046.0975.3365.22

3/26/046.1405.3955.15

3/29/046.1055.3655.25

3/30/046.2335.7465.4

3/31/046.1645.9335.63

4/1/045.9435.7655.81

4/2/045.9295.8125.69

4/5/045.9125.8045.8

4/6/046.0505.8095.7

4/7/046.2555.8725.76

4/8/046.4035.9415.85

4/9/045.85

4/12/046.5166.0095.85

4/13/046.3955.7885.92

4/14/046.3145.7445.73

4/15/046.5075.7345.68

4/16/046.5005.6105.62

4/19/046.4595.5095.57

4/20/046.4845.5535.45

4/21/046.3125.5825.52

4/22/046.5005.6235.59

4/23/046.4175.5715.53

4/26/046.3835.7645.59

4/27/046.4645.8745.81

4/28/046.4195.9355.79

4/29/046.4665.9245.78

4/30/046.4335.8625.8

5/3/046.5976.2315.79

5/4/046.7006.2696.21

5/5/046.8436.3106.09

5/6/046.7956.2196.23

5/7/046.8936.2946.18

5/10/046.7076.1846.12

5/11/046.9486.3866.24

5/12/046.9486.4056.39

5/13/047.0596.4806.41

5/14/047.1416.4016.44

5/17/047.1606.4246.41

5/18/046.9526.1546.28

5/19/047.1746.4556.18

5/20/047.0556.3246.45

5/21/046.8676.3536.35

5/24/047.2476.7056.47

5/25/047.1476.6846.72

5/26/047.0006.6806.7

5/27/046.7676.5736.51

5/28/046.8796.4426.43

5/31/046.43

6/1/047.2986.6816.45

6/2/046.8906.5196.51

6/3/046.7746.3636.43

6/4/046.6286.2616.15

6/7/046.6766.2076.08

6/8/046.4106.1156.19

6/9/046.4836.0826.05

6/10/046.6296.1766.01

6/11/046.01

6/14/046.4796.2446.15

6/15/046.4106.3046.35

6/16/046.4366.4896.39

6/17/046.6406.5826.58

6/18/046.6696.5206.48

6/21/046.4986.3396.42

6/22/046.5716.4126.29

6/23/046.4766.4156.29

6/24/046.5196.4856.41

6/25/046.4386.3536.27

6/28/046.2506.1416.13

6/29/046.1386.1186.02

6/29/046.1386.1186.02

6/30/046.3666.1556.05

7/1/046.6486.2175.96

7/2/046.6166.1485.88

7/6/046.8216.4246.16

7/7/046.7556.3706.28

7/8/046.8006.1856.2

7/9/046.8796.1415.89

7/12/046.7765.8575.94

7/13/046.8195.9055.84

7/14/047.0665.9775.91

7/15/047.0175.8465.93

7/16/047.0865.8875.77

7/19/047.1645.8185.75

7/20/047.0455.8375.79

7/21/047.0055.9315.91

7/22/047.1576.1525.83

7/23/047.2106.1345.98

7/26/047.1475.9575.95

7/27/047.2125.9895.89

7/28/047.3816.0485.77

7/29/047.3606.1805.93

7/30/047.5386.1126.02

8/2/047.5575.8135.86

8/3/047.6095.8165.76

8/4/047.3675.6615.7

8/5/047.6535.7125.55

8/6/047.5785.5885.43

8/9/047.7345.6935.58

8/10/047.6745.7915.77

8/11/047.7105.6145.64

8/12/047.8485.4425.48

8/13/048.0365.5335.27

8/16/047.9345.3785.35

8/17/048.0605.3735.26

8/18/048.5455.3825.35

8/19/048.3905.5075.35

8/20/048.2075.5525.4

8/23/047.9315.3105.34

8/24/047.8765.3385.22

8/25/047.5575.2985.32

8/26/047.4245.1895.2

8/27/047.4335.0825.04

8/30/047.2975.2345.04

8/31/047.2815.0745.04

9/1/047.5674.9655.03

9/2/047.5934.7674.74

9/3/047.5764.6754.33

9/7/047.4454.7904.42

9/8/047.3744.6314.69

9/9/047.6784.6584.57

9/10/047.3864.5704.58

9/13/047.5624.8505.14

9/14/047.6934.9285.15

9/15/047.5574.8245.16

9/16/047.5914.7194.82

9/17/047.8675.1084.96

9/20/047.9885.2495.22

9/21/048.1225.6085.43

9/22/048.3475.6295.59

9/23/048.3405.5645.57

9/24/048.4245.3925.41

9/27/048.5455.2625.23

9/28/048.5795.7235.45

9/29/048.5406.9116.23

9/30/048.5456.7956.43

10/1/048.6486.7725.42

10/4/048.5956.7255.72

10/5/048.8077.1646.07

10/6/048.9627.0456

10/7/049.0627.2556.21

10/8/049.2077.1635.64

10/11/049.2506.9935.69

10/12/049.2226.6365.37

10/13/049.2866.8515.39

10/14/049.4296.8035.76

10/15/049.4646.7095.65

10/18/049.2406.8065.65

10/19/049.1867.1236.12

10/20/049.4717.6237.25

10/21/049.3987.6977.38

10/22/049.6268.1057.12

10/25/049.5727.8907.76

10/26/049.7198.4027.78

10/27/049.0557.6268.12

10/28/048.7848.6846.83

10/29/048.9288.7256.44

11/1/048.6388.7206.98

11/2/048.5528.5676.88

11/3/048.7768.7527.26

11/4/048.4148.1997.41

11/5/048.5607.9546.07

11/8/048.4667.6006.64

11/9/048.177.4715.85

11/10/048.407.6786.12

11/11/048.197.2366.18

11/12/048.167.1765.89

11/15/048.0957.4366.01

11/16/047.9487.1246.57

11/17/048.0787.2836.05

11/18/047.9836.8735.58

11/19/048.4317.1154.79

11/22/048.3596.7625.25

11/23/048.4036.7935.23

11/24/048.4727.9764.95

11/29/048.5717.8376.81

11/30/048.4767.6206.79

12/1/047.8557.4136.77

Sheet1

111

Sheet2

Sheet3

Henry Hub Spot Prices Are Expected to Average About $6 per Mcf through 2005(Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval*)*The confidence intervals show +/- 2 standard errors based on the properties of the model. The ranges do not include the effects of major supply disruptions.Sources: History: Natural Gas Week; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2004.Average Spot Price:about $6.03 /Mcf in 2004about $6.01 /Mcf in 2005

Mercado de Futuros New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), 1978, Contratos futuros de Residuales.1981, Contratos futuros de Gasolinas.1983, Contratos futuros de Crudos.1987, Contratos futuros de Propano.1990, Contratos futuros de Gas Natural.

El sistema de ductos en USA permita entregas de crudo de cantidades pequeas, como de 5000 bls.

Precios en Sudamrica

ARGENTINAConsumo de Gas Natural Millones de P3/DiaFuente: Enargas

Demanda Insatisfecha en ArgentinaCapacidad de Transporte: Tendencia histrica SituacinNo se expande capacidad desde 2001El bajo precio relativo del gas aceler el crecimientoDemanda Elctrica creci en 2003 al 8% anualDemanda de Gas para generacin crece al dobleGNC (vehicular) creci ms del 30% en 2003Actividad Industrial recuperadaCrecimiento GNCProyeccinLa nueva demanda es estructuralConversin domiciliarios de GLP a Gas NaturalConversin vehculos a GNCIndustrias que construyeron su gasoducto de alimentacinTodo el crecimiento elctrico a corto y mediano plazo debe ser abastecido con gas

Precios 2003Precios 2001Precios 2001

Precio de Gas Natural Ro Grande (GSA) - 0.24 $us/MPCFuente: YPFB. Elaboracin propiaPrecios de Exportacin Gas Natural de Bolivia a Argentina

Grfico4

1.6289342451

1.8314914256

1.9056613034

2.2136234251

2.4798808425

2.9947314124

3.29

4.09

4.27

4.37

4.12

5.88

7.32

7.65

7.17

7.37

7.11

6.8

6.58

8.38

8.51

7.86

10.41

9.36

10.35

11.33

10.74

12.57

12.53

10.85

11.2872205806

11.5861946429

11.1025272258

9.6753375

8.021910129

8.8334494667

9.8590279677

9.4849049355

11.8183786667

11.2091104839

10.7331249

10.5262596774

11.6388629032

11.5278751786

12.4907411935

13.2869594

13.5565952258

14.4139571333

14.0280703548

13.6569940968

13.8844724

15.5497151613

16.7930447

14.8870966774

16.4418266129

19.0247165172

19.5264117742

20.3205997333

21.158338

21.4955366667

21.1729130968

22.6003733871

22.8275088667

22.6650543871

21.6871607333

20.1959180645

Volumen de Exportacin

Mes

MMMCD

Mercado Interno

PRECIOS DE VENTA DE GAS NATURAL EN BOLIVIA

VIGENTES OCTUBRE DE 2004

CIUDADINDUSTRIALCOMERCIALDOMESTICO

$US/MPC$US/MPC$US/MPC

La Paz1.704.325.48

Oruro1.704.325.48

Potos1.704.325.48

Camiri1.704.505.20

Santa Cruz1.705.375.37

Cochabamba1.705.175.17

Sucre1.701,5062 (**)1,5062(**)

Tarija1.504.274.27

(**) EN Bs/M3

Brasil

Precio de Gas Natural (GSA)

$US/MPC

199920002001200220032004

ENERO1.3703861.8882171.4391951.7901852.037494

FEBRERO1.3876431.8952271.4483411.7910682.113718

MARZO1.3765761.9021231.4400341.7918462.142467

ABRIL1.5715571.7560501.4033002.0605622.075906

MAYO1.5699361.7772881.4030252.0649752.093025

JUNIO1.5638531.7499131.4090922.1120032.091437

JULIO0.9227641.6682761.6671841.5713522.0121592.176845

AGOSTO0.9275241.6671281.7037881.5733921.9985152.185511

SEPTIEMBRE0.9355211.6665441.6712681.5924602.0142512.177698

OCTUBRE1.1650761.7978301.6422161.7352172.1374772.252606

NOVIEMBRE1.1674441.7924781.6670251.7333752.1708512.237193

DICIEMBRE1.1685211.7895001.6324171.7328982.1201152.215520

Jul-99Aug-99Sep-99Oct-99Nov-99Dec-99Jan-00Feb-00Mar-00Apr-00May-00Jun-00Jul-00Aug-00Sep-00Oct-00Nov-00Dec-00Jan-01Feb-01Mar-01Apr-01May-01Jun-01Jul-01Aug-01Sep-01Oct-01Nov-01Dec-01Jan-02Feb-02Mar-02Apr-02May-02Jun-02Jul-02Aug-02Sep-02Oct-02Nov-02Dec-02Jan-03Feb-03Mar-03Apr-03May-03Jun-03Jul-03Aug-03Sep-03Oct-03Nov-03Dec-03Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04

0.9230.9280.9361.1651.1671.1691.3701.3881.3771.5721.5701.5641.6681.6671.6671.7981.7921.7901.8881.8951.9021.7561.7771.7501.6671.7041.6711.6421.6671.6321.4391.4481.4401.4031.4031.4091.5711.5731.5921.7351.7331.7331.7901.7911.7922.0612.0652.1122.0121.9992.0142.1372.1712.1202.0372.1142.1422.0762.0932.0912.1772.1862.1782.2532.2372.216

Brasil

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


Mes

$us/MPC

Exportacion

Exportacin de Gas Natural - Brasil (GSA)

MMm3/da

19992000200120022003

ENERO3.296.5811.2911.64

FEBRERO4.098.3811.5911.53

MARZO4.278.5111.1012.49

ABRIL4.377.869.6813.29

MAYO4.1210.418.0213.56

JUNIO5.889.368.8314.41

JULIO1.637.3210.359.8614.03

AGOSTO1.837.6511.339.4813.66

SEPTIEMBRE1.917.1710.7411.8213.88

OCTUBRE2.217.3712.5711.2115.55

NOVIEMBRE2.487.1112.5310.7316.79

DICIEMBRE2.996.8010.8510.5314.89

Promedio2.185.799.9610.3413.08

Fuente: YPFB


1.631.831.912.212.482.993.294.094.274.374.125.887.327.657.177.377.116.806.588.388.517.8610.419.3610.3511.3310.7412.5712.5310.8511.2911.5911.109.688.028.839.869.4811.8211.2110.7310.5311.6411.5312.4913.2913.5614.4114.0313.6613.8815.5516.7914.8916.4419.0219.5320.3221.1621.5021.1722.6022.8322.6721.6920.20

Exportacion

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


Mes

MMMCD

Argentina

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


Mes

MMMCD

Precio de Gas Natural (Argentina)

$US/MPC

199719981999200220032004

ENERO1.3364791.2043350.788243

FEBRERO1.3445691.1569150.740177

MARZO1.3535521.1163440.740179

ABRIL1.3102531.0623430.790238

MAYO1.2915651.0365920.814501

JUNIO1.2316830.9593160.8627941.740559

JULIO1.1657330.9299250.9246711.742539

AGOSTO1.1467430.9256371.742168

SEPTIEMBRE1.1437550.903815

OCTUBRE1.1175220.889326

NOVIEMBRE1.1626090.857844

DICIEMBRE1.2060280.827377

Precio de Gas Natural Boliviano en Ro Grande (GSA) - $us/MPCFuente: YPFB. Elaboracin propia

Grfico2

0.922764

0.927524

0.935521

1.165076

1.167444

1.168521

1.370386

1.387643

1.376576

1.571557

1.569936

1.563853

1.668276

1.667128

1.666544

1.79783

1.792478

1.7895

1.888217

1.895227

1.902123

1.75605

1.777288

1.749913

1.667184

1.703788

1.671268

1.642216

1.667025

1.632417

1.439195

1.448341

1.440034

1.4033

1.403025

1.409092

1.571352

1.573392

1.59246

1.735217

1.733375

1.732898

1.790185

1.791068

1.791846

2.0605624111

2.0649748395

2.112003

2.012159

1.998515

2.014251

2.137477

2.170851

2.120115

2.037494

2.113718

2.142467

2.075906

2.093025

2.091437

2.176845

2.185511

2.177698

2.252606

2.237193

2.21552


Mes

$us/MPC

Mercado Interno

PRECIOS DE VENTA DE GAS NATURAL EN BOLIVIA

VIGENTES OCTUBRE DE 2004

CIUDADINDUSTRIALCOMERCIALDOMESTICO

$US/MPC$US/MPC$US/MPC

La Paz1.704.325.48

Oruro1.704.325.48

Potos1.704.325.48

Camiri1.704.505.20

Santa Cruz1.705.375.37

Cochabamba1.705.175.17

Sucre1.701,5062 (**)1,5062(**)

Tarija1.504.274.27

(**) EN Bs/M3

Brasil


$US/MPC

199920002001200220032004

ENERO1.3703861.8882171.4391951.7901852.037494

FEBRERO1.3876431.8952271.4483411.7910682.113718

MARZO1.3765761.9021231.4400341.7918462.142467

ABRIL1.5715571.7560501.4033002.0605622.075906

MAYO1.5699361.7772881.4030252.0649752.093025

JUNIO1.5638531.7499131.4090922.1120032.091437

JULIO0.9227641.6682761.6671841.5713522.0121592.176845

AGOSTO0.9275241.6671281.7037881.5733921.9985152.185511

SEPTIEMBRE0.9355211.6665441.6712681.5924602.0142512.177698

OCTUBRE1.1650761.7978301.6422161.7352172.1374772.252606

NOVIEMBRE1.1674441.7924781.6670251.7333752.1708512.237193

DICIEMBRE1.1685211.7895001.6324171.7328982.1201152.215520


0.9230.9280.9361.1651.1671.1691.3701.3881.3771.5721.5701.5641.6681.6671.6671.7981.7921.7901.8881.8951.9021.7561.7771.7501.6671.7041.6711.6421.6671.6321.4391.4481.4401.4031.4031.4091.5711.5731.5921.7351.7331.7331.7901.7911.7922.0612.0652.1122.0121.9992.0142.1372.1712.1202.0372.1142.1422.0762.0932.0912.1772.1862.1782.2532.2372.216

Brasil


Mes

$us/MPC

Argentina


$US/MPC

199719981999200220032004

ENERO1.3364791.2043350.788243

FEBRERO1.3445691.1569150.740177

MARZO1.3535521.1163440.740179

ABRIL1.3102531.0623430.790238

MAYO1.2915651.0365920.814501

JUNIO1.2316830.9593160.8627941.740559

JULIO1.1657330.9299250.9246711.742539

AGOSTO1.1467430.9256371.742168

SEPTIEMBRE1.1437550.903815

OCTUBRE1.1175220.889326

NOVIEMBRE1.1626090.857844

DICIEMBRE1.2060280.827377

Jan-97Feb-97Mar-97Apr-97May-97Jun-97Jul-97Aug-97Sep-97Oct-97Nov-97Dec-97Jan-98Feb-98Mar-98Apr-98May-98Jun-98Jul-98Aug-98Sep-98Oct-98Nov-98Dec-98Jan-99Feb-99Mar-99Apr-99May-99Jun-99Jul-99

1.3361.3451.3541.3101.2921.2321.1661.1471.1441.1181.1631.2061.2041.1571.1161.0621.0370.9590.9300.9260.9040.8890.8580.8270.7880.7400.7400.7900.8150.8630.925

Argentina


Mes

$us/MPC

Resumen Argentina Precios lquidos mercado internacional Precios de gas pesificados (0.60 $/MMBTU) Mercado spot inmediato de 5 a 6 MMMCD Precio Mercado Buenos Aires: 3.00 US$/MMBTU Tarifa Transporte: 1.00 $US/MMBTU Gasoducto Noroeste negociado mediados 2005 Gasoducto Noroeste concluido hasta 2007 Caso contrario ampliacin loops y compresin

CHILE Consumo de Gas Natural Millones de P3/DiaFuente: Enargas

Gasoductos de Exportacin

Argentina a Chile

2004Fuente: Enargas

GasoductoNORTECENTRO SURAtacama(a Chile)NorAndino(a Chile)GasAndes(a Chile)Pacfico(a Chile)Metanex PAE(a Chile)Metanex YPF(a Chile)Metanex SIP(a Chile)PROM (MMMCD)2,602,177,761,081,691,471,53

Evolucin Restricciones Efectivas Gas Natural desde Argentina 2004Fuente: CNE

Temas a tener en cuenta en Chile : generadores elctricos en el SING, gasoductos existentes,la industria minera Generadores elctricos en el SINGAnlisis del impacto y de la competitividad relativa de los actores elctricos en el SING. Posible conjuncin de intereses en asegurar compra de gas de Camisea (SEI y Endesa/CMS). Negociaciones de cada empresa con sus repestcivos clientes? Compaas mineras La seguridad de suministro les beneficia. estaran dispuestas a pagar el precio? una carrera hacia el carbn?Las importaciones de LNG no seras menos caras Impacto en GNA y GasAtacamaUn escenario inicial de 10 MMCMD no permite inyectar gas en Argentina a travs de los gasoductos existentes. Se necesitaran volmenes ms importantes. Estos gasoductos deben ser partes integrantes del anillo energtico. Gobierno chileno Proyecto de inters nacional. Socializar los costos?

Resumen ChileAumento en las restricciones de exportacin de gas natural por parte de Argentina.No posee fuente de energa de abastecimiento segura, limpia, de rpida implementacin, como es el caso de la termoelectricidad en base a gas natural.Suministro a travs de LNG. Precio 9.00 US$/MMBTU.Modificar su estructura de despacho y guiarla hacia la generacin hidrulica o uso del carbn.Mejor opcin abastecimiento a travs de Bolivia, con un precio de transporte de alrededor de 1.20 US$/MMBTU y un precio de gas de 2.80 US$/MMBTU en frontera, se tendra una seal aceptable en Chile de 4.00 US$/MMBTU.

Oferta y Demanda local

Fuente: CNE

ProyectoDesarrollar el Sur de Per y abastecer la regin con Gas de CamiseaAlternativa TRAZA 1Pisco Antofagasta1700 kmPotencia SUR PERCarbn + Lquidos: 524 MWPotencia NORTE CHILEGas: 1700 MW (Incluye 240 MW de Taltal-SIC)TV carbn: 1200 MWPotencia NORTE ARG.CC Termoandes 643 MWPERARGENTINACHILECamiseaPiscoLimaAntofagastaBOLIVIATGN -COTGN -NORNorandinoAtacamaTocopillaMejillonesGasoducto TaltalGasandesGas PacficoBRASILLnea ElctricaArequipaSantiagoTGP

Norte de ChileEquipamiento Generacin TrmicaTocopillaCC 400 MW + TG 38 MWAtacama CC1 396 MW + CC2 385 MWCARBN Norgener 277 MWCARBN Tarapac 158 MWCARBN Tocopilla 429 MWCC Termoandes 643 MWNorandinoAtacamaCARBN Mejillones 341 MWMejillones CC 251 MWSINGSICTaltal 240 MWPOTENCIA INSTALADA NORTE CHILETV Carbn: 1 200 MWGas x Norandino: 690 MWGas x Atacama : 1020 MWTOTAL 2 910 MW ( 1710 a gas)

CAP 6 Mercado Regional y Mundial Del Gas Natural

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Transcript of CAP 6 Mercado Regional y Mundial Del Gas Natural