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Introduction to the climate prediction .net project

and progress so far

Climate prediction .net in schools teachingresources and how to join in

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The Day After Tomorrow

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Climate prediction .net is an ambitious new scientific experiment aiming to producethe most comprehensive probability based forecast of 21 st Century climate ever

attempted.

The experiment should give policymakers a better scientific basis for addressing one of the biggest

potential global problems of the 21 stcentury.

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In the light of new evidence and taking into account the remaining uncertainties,

most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been dueto the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations

Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001

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We can produce very detailed predictions of climate change with no idea of how reliable they

might be

2080temperaturechange (K)

2080precipitationchange (%)

Source: Mat Collins, Hadley Centre

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Sources of UncertaintyBasic sources of uncertainty in climate forecasts: Incomplete knowledge of the initial state of the system Uncertainty in future forcings

Uncertain models - poor/incomplete representation of the physicalprocesses that govern the climate

The climateprediction.net approach to forecast uncertainty climate prediction .net targets uncertainty in the initial state of the

atmosphere by running the same model several (~10) times with differentinitial states (initial condition ensembles) climate prediction .net targets uncertainty in future forcings by running

many different solar, sulphate and greenhouse scenarios (forcingensembles)

climate prediction .net targets model uncertainty by altering the modelsphysics (perturbed physics ensembles)

To systematically explore model uncertainty requires large numbers of simulations, due to the non-linear interaction of parameters. Hence theneed for climate prediction .net to carry out such an ensemble.

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Double Pendulum

Courtesy of Ross Bannister

Initial speed400.1 degrees/ sec

Initial speed400.0 degrees/ sec

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Each Model is Unique

Standardmodelset-up

Perturbedphysics

ensemble

Initialconditionensemble

BoundaryConditions

(forcing)ensemble

Uni q

u em o d el

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Experiment DesignExptsExpts 1: GCM with1: GCM with thermodynamic oceanthermodynamic ocean . (HadSM3). (HadSM3)

Aim: To identify parameter combinations which have little effect Aim: To identify parameter combinations which have little effect on theon themean climate but a large effect on climate sensitivity.mean climate but a large effect on climate sensitivity.Evaluate perturbations to atmosphere/ocean fluxes.Evaluate perturbations to atmosphere/ocean fluxes.

15 yr spin-up 15 yr, base case CO 2

15 yr, 2 x CO 2

Derived fluxes

Diagnostics from final8 yrs.

Calibration

Control

Double CO2

ExptExpt 2:2: Fully coupled modelFully coupled model . (HadCM3. (HadCM3 -- the coupled model)the coupled model)Distribute preDistribute pre --packaged simulations of 1950packaged simulations of 1950 --2050.2050.

DownweightDownweight or eliminate runs which compare badly with observations.or eliminate runs which compare badly with observations.ReRe--distribute the surviving versions to simulate 2000distribute the surviving versions to simulate 2000 --2050.2050.

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Experiment 1

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Results so Far

1000 bigger ensemblethan has ever beenachieved so far

Sampled more extreme

sensitivities than haveever been seen before

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Client and Simple Visualisation

Watch the modelled climate change over hours,days, weeks

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Student Visualisation Interface

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Warm front Warm front

Good day tostay in bed

Treacherousdriving

conditions

11 th-18 th December 1828, London

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Schools Materials 14 + U.K. Syllabus specific materials Reproduce existing materials in a format suitable

for classroom teaching Easy to use for teachers Encourage schools to join the experiment Unique, distinct and genuinely useful

Models and Prediction rather than climatechange

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For younger students

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For older studentsVariety of simple climate models involving dice, excel, bottles of water, calculators..

Discussion excercises, role playing

Investigating weather and climate

Analysis of numbers, data sets..

Exploring climate prediction .net results

The Earth

incomingsolar radiation

outgoingradiation

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http://www.climateprediction.net/schools

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Why is a bucket of water like the climate?

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v2=2gH

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A simple climate model

The Earth

incomingsolar radiation

outgoingradiation

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Earth temperature

282.5

283

283.5

284

284.5

285

285.5

286286.5

287

0 5 10 15 20

year

t e m p e r a t u r e

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Free to the first 10 teachers to sendme a (completed) feedback form

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