Andreu Ulied // Oriol Biosca MCRIT Milano, 7-8 th February 2013

Andreu Ulied // Oriol BioscaMCRIT

Milano, 7-8th February 2013

TRANSPORT SCENARIOS

MOSAIC MODEL

• UTS: Union’s Territorial Strategies Linked to TENs (DGVII, INRETS, 1997) • KTEN: ESPON 3.2 (ULB, 2006)

• TRANSTOOLS: TEN CONNECT (Tetraplan, DGMOVE TENs EC Proposal, 2008)

• EU MM: TRANSVISION: (Tetraplan, DGMOVE White Paper Roadmap 2050, 2009)

• MOSAIC1: INTERCONNECT: (7th RTD Edinburgh University, 2011)

• MOSAIC2: ORIGAMI: (7th RTD Edinburg University, 2011-2013)

• World MM: PASHMINA: (7TH RTD ISIS, 2013)

• MOSAIC3: COMPASS: (7th RTD Edinburg University, 2012-2014)

• MM3/MOSAIC3: HIGH-TOOLS (7TH RTD Karlsruhe IT, 2013-2016)

• MOSAIC4: LIVINGRAIL (7TH RTD Franhofer Institute, 2013-2015)

Milestones between 1995 and 2008,

Modelling pedigree

MOSAIC assigns OD matrices by trip purposes in a multi-modal transport network.

Modelling tool: MOSAIC

Road Network Rail Network Air Network

Modelling tool: MOSAICModal graphs become linked to each other through connections between networks at stations/airports.

OD matrices. Contain the number of trips that take place yearly travel between one origin in Europe (NUTS3) and another one. Originally TT matrices, but now ET2050’s.


NUTS3

NUTS3

Definition of OD MATRICES(Based on population and GDP growth)

MOSAIC Cost function = Cost of Travel Time f(trip purpose) ++ Cost of using transport infrastructure f(mode)

++ Costs of interconnection


INPUTS OUTPUTS

Environmental indicators (CO2, particulates, fuel consumption)

Accessibility

Definition of infrastructure investments

Infrastructure provision More road links (km) in core network

- Missing links More HSR links (km) in core network

- Bottlenecks More conventional rail links (km) in core network

- Interconnections between networks More air links (km)

More ferry links

Airport - rail interconnections

Definition of transport policies

POLICY INSTRUMENTS INPUTS TO MOSAIC-TTMarket liberalisation Average Road travel cost (€/km)

- Market opening (free competition) Average Rail travel cost (€/km)

- Privatisation (PPPs) Average Air travel cost (€/km)

Average Ferry travel cost (€/km)

Bans and regulation Average Car vehicle emissions (grams/veh·km)

- Efficiency standards Electric vehicles (% of non-ICE vehicles)

- Speed limitations Car occupation (people/vehicle)

- Flanking measures (behavioural incentives) Average Rail emission factors (grams/pax·km)

Average Air emission factors (grams/pax·km)

Average Ferry emission factors (grams/pax·km)

Road speed (km/h)

Pricing and Taxation Road travel cost (€/km)

- Road pricing Rail travel cost (€/km)

- Vehicle taxation Air travel cost (€/km)

- Rail subsidies Ferry travel cost (€/km)

- Fuel taxation Cost of accessing a city from road network (€/km)

- Air taxation Cost of accessing an airport from road network (€/km)

Infrastructure management Road speed (km/h)

- New technological solutions Rail speed (km/h)

- Organisational issues Air speed (km/h)

- Optimisation of precedures Ferry speed (km/h)

Speed when accessing a city from the road network (km/h)

Speed when accessing a city from the rail station (km/h)

Cost of accessing an airport from the road network (€/km)

Cost of accessing an airport from the rail network (€/km)

Cost of accessing a rail station from the road network (€/km)

Time penalty between consecutive air trips (transit)

Time penalty before starting an air trip (check-in / security)

BASELINE

Transport Baseline - Infrastructure development

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

1,20

1,40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Road Rail IWW SEA Air

Total Infrastructure Investment as a share of GDP (per modes) 1995-2008

TEN-T program

34%

Outside TEN program

38%

Maintenance28%

• The EU has spent on average between 0.9% and 1.2% of EU GDP in infrastructure investment.

• About 1/3 of available funds have been spent on infrastructure maintenance.

and the rest on construction of new infrastructure.

• More than 85% of investment is financed with Member States national budgets. EU funds represent 5% of investment. and almost 10% is constituted by EIB loans and private investments.

• Around 60% of total investment has been devoted to Road mode. 20% to Rail and 10% equally split between Air and Water modes.

• 50% of investment devoted to new infrastructure is targeted at TEN-T networks. and the other half to national networks.

• Almost half of investment on TEN-T has been devoted over the last 10 years to rail. and around 35% to road.

Between 1995 and 2008,


Total Infrastructure Investment as a share of GDP (per modes) 2010-2030


New TEN-T motorways New TEN-T railways


Alpha, beta = 0,5

GDP Growth

Population Growth

Transport Baseline

TRIP Generation 2030

Transport Baseline - FLOWS assigned

Accessibility impacts (population accessible weighted by cost of access)

Transport Baseline - Accessibility

Baseline 2030 VS Baseline 2010

·Pi

c generalised cost from j to iPi population at NUTS3 Im number of NUTS in EuropeLambda decaying constant

Transport Baseline

ROAD traffics per NUTS3 in 1000pax·km

Transport Baseline

ROAD CO2 per NUTS3

67,1%

71,3%

6,0%

6,4%

1,3%

1,0%

25,7%

21,2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

BASELINE 2010

BASELINE 2030

Road Rail Ferry Air

Transport Baseline - Modal Split

Results for EU27 scenario Baseline 2010ROAD RAIL FERRY AIR TOTAL

MPaxkm 678.506 60.494 12.740 259.646 1.011.386Modal share in paxkm 67,1% 6,0% 1,3% 25,7%Cost M€ 146.479 14.401 12.615 18.319 191.815Time Mhours 6.772 488 359 784 8.403Fuel consumption in Mtons/MWh 19,9 3,3 0,6 10,6 34Nox in Mtons 7,3 3,5 42,0 146,1 199PM10 in Mtons 0,4 0,2 0,6 2,1 3MTCO2 63,0 1,3 1,8 33,6 100

Multimodality in paxkm 18%vehicle occupancy road 2,0

Results for EU27 2030 ET2050 baselineROAD RAIL FERRY AIR TOTAL

MPaxkm 940.878 85.128 13.595 280.311 1.319.911Modal share in paxkm 71,3% 6,4% 1,0% 21,2%Cost M€ 200.508 19.713 13.630 24.149 258.000Time Mhours 9.399 688 383 847 11.317Fuel consumption in Mtons/MWh 20,3 2,8 0,4 6,2 30Nox in Mtons 7,5 2,9 30,9 84,9 126PM10 in Mtons 0,4 0,2 0,5 1,2 2MTCO2 64,4 1,1 1,4 19,5 86

Multimodality in paxkm 16%vehicle occupancy road 1,5

Transport Baseline

ET2050 SCENARIOS

POLICY INSTRUMENTS FLOWS CITIES REGIONSMarket liberalisation - Market opening (free competition) HIGH Medium low

- Privatisation (PPPs) Bans and regulation - Efficiency standards - Speed limitations LOW Medium high

- Flanking measures (behavioural incentives) Pricing and Taxation - Road pricing - Vehicle taxation LOW Medium high - Rail subsidies

- Fuel taxation

- Air taxation Service management - New technological solutions - Organisational issues HIGH LOW MEDIUM

- Optimisation of service provision

Infrastructure provision at European level - Missing links - Bottlenecks LOW HIGH-Rail LOW

- Interconnections between networks Infrastructure provision at local level LOW MEDIUM HIGH

Basic Assumptions

BASELINE CITIES REGIONS FLOWS

% GDP 0,90% 1,10% 0,80% 0,80%

billion euros 2600 3000 2400 2400

% in TENs 25% 33% 22% 22%

% in TEN core 12% 18% 6% 7%

billon euros in core 300 530 150 175

km road 4.800 6500 1900 2000

km rail 13.000 30000 5000 5300

Infrastructure Assumptions

POLICY INSTRUMENTS Indicators modelled in ORIGAMI OR1 compared to

Baseline 2030

Market liberalisation Average Road travel cost (€/km) -

- Market opening (free competition) Average Rail travel cost (€/km) -

- Privatisation (PPPs) Average Air travel cost (€/km) -

Average Ferry travel cost (€/km) -

Bans and regulation Average Car vehicle emissions (grams/veh·km) -10%

- Efficiency standards Electric vehicles (% of non-ICE vehicles) +10%

- Speed limitations Car occupation (people/vehicle) -

- Flanking measures Average Rail emission factors (grams/pax·km) -5%

(behavioural incentives) Average Air emission factors (grams/pax·km) -5%

Average Ferry emission factors (grams/pax·km) -5%

Road speed (km/h) -5%

Pricing and Taxation Road travel cost (€/km) +10%

- Road pricing Rail travel cost (€/km) -10%

- Vehicle taxation Air travel cost (€/km) +5%

- Rail subsidies Ferry travel cost (€/km) +5%

- Fuel taxation Cost of accessing a city from road network (€/km) +10%

- Air taxation Cost of accessing an airport from road network (€/km) +10%

Infrastructure management Road speed (km/h) -

- New technological solutions Rail speed (km/h) -

- Organisational issues Air speed (km/h) -

- Optimisation of precedures Ferry speed (km/h) -

Speed when accessing a city from the road network (km/h) -

Speed when accessing a city from the rail station (km/h) +7.5%

Cost of accessing an airport from the road network (€/km) -

Cost of accessing an airport from the rail network (€/km) -10%

Cost of accessing a rail station from the road network (€/km) -10%

Time penalty between consecutive air trips (transit) -

Time penalty before starting an air trip (check-in / security) -

Infrastructure provision More road links (km) in core network +33% (+6500km)

- Missing links More HSR links (km) in core network +125% (14.000km)

- Bottlenecks More conventional rail links (km) in core network +125% (14.750km)

- Interconnections between networks More air links (km) -

More ferry links -

Airport - rail interconnections All airports within 10km from rail connected

Cities 2030

“Promoting modal-shift to rail” • More transport infrastructure investment, especially focused on rail (financed by public sector) linking large and MS cities

• Air-rail interconnections are enhanced

• Access to transport terminals by public transport enhanced.

• Environmental regulation to encourage green modes

• road pricing as an extension of Eurovignette

• extended air taxation

• More subsidies to rail

New TEN-T motorways (Baseline) New TEN-T motorways (CITIES)

Cities 2030

Alpha = 0,1 beta = 0,9

New TEN-T railways (Baseline) New TEN-T rail (CITIES)

Cities 2030


Cities 2030


Baseline 2030

Market liberalisation Average Road travel cost (€/km) -

- Market opening (free competition) Average Rail travel cost (€/km) -

- Privatisation (PPPs) Average Air travel cost (€/km) -

Average Ferry travel cost (€/km) -

Bans and regulation Average Car vehicle emissions (grams/veh·km) -35%

- Efficiency standards Electric vehicles (% of non-ICE vehicles) +50%

- Speed limitations Car occupation (people/vehicle) +35%

- Flanking measures Average Rail emission factors (grams/pax·km) -20%



Road speed (km/h) -

Pricing and Taxation Road travel cost (€/km) -

- Road pricing Rail travel cost (€/km) -

- Vehicle taxation Air travel cost (€/km) -

- Rail subsidies Ferry travel cost (€/km) -

- Fuel taxation Cost of accessing a city from road network (€/km) -

- Air taxation Cost of accessing an airport from road network (€/km) -


- New technological solutions Rail speed (km/h) -

- Organisational issues Air speed (km/h) -

- Optimisation of precedures Ferry speed (km/h) -

Speed when accessing a city from the road network (km/h) -

Speed when accessing a city from the rail station (km/h) -

Cost of accessing an airport from the road network (€/km) -

Cost of accessing an airport from the rail network (€/km) -

Cost of accessing a rail station from the road network (€/km) -

Time penalty between consecutive air trips (transit) -

Time penalty before starting an air trip (check-in / security) -

Infrastructure provision More road links (km) in core network -60% (+2.000km)

- Missing links More HSR links (km) in core network -60% (+2.500km)

- Bottlenecks More conventional rail links (km) in core network -60% (+2.600km)


More ferry links -

Airport - rail interconnections -

Regions 2030“Responsible behaviour and cleaner technologies”

•Euro Standard regulations for vehicles, and favorable taxation and technological developments to promote expansion of alternative car fleet.

•Lighter vehicles lead to lower gas consumption. More efficient driving is favored.

•Train, airplane and ship load factors increases promoted by environmental regulation

•Car sharing and pooling results in increased vehicle occupancy.

New TEN-T motorways (Baseline) New TEN-T motorways (REGIONS)

REGIONS 2030


New TEN-T railways (Baseline) New TEN-T rail (REGIONS)

REGIONS 2030



Baseline 2030

Market liberalisation Average Road travel cost (€/km) -2.5%

- Market opening (free competition) Average Rail travel cost (€/km) -2.5%

- Privatisation (PPPs) Average Air travel cost (€/km) -2.5%

Average Ferry travel cost (€/km) -2.5%

Bans and regulation Average Car vehicle emissions (grams/veh·km) -

- Efficiency standards Electric vehicles (% of non-ICE vehicles) -

- Speed limitations Car occupation (people/vehicle) +10%

- Flanking measures Average Rail emission factors (grams/pax·km) -



Road speed (km/h) -

Pricing and Taxation Road travel cost (€/km) -

- Road pricing Rail travel cost (€/km) -

- Vehicle taxation Air travel cost (€/km) +5%

- Rail subsidies Ferry travel cost (€/km) -

- Fuel taxation Cost of accessing a city from road network (€/km)

- Air taxation Cost of accessing an airport from road network (€/km)


- New technological solutions Rail speed (km/h) +15%

- Organisational issues Air speed (km/h) -10min per flight

- Optimisation of precedures Ferry speed (km/h) +15%

Speed when accessing a city from the road network (km/h) +15%

Speed when accessing a city from the rail station (km/h) +15%

Cost of accessing an airport from the road network (€/km) -20%

Cost of accessing an airport from the rail network (€/km) -20%

Cost of accessing a rail station from the road network (€/km) -20%

Time penalty between consecutive air trips (transit) -15%

Time penalty before starting an air trip (check-in / security) -15%

Infrastructure provision More road links (km) in core network -60% (+2.000km)

- Missing links More HSR links (km) in core network -60% (+2.500km)

- Bottlenecks More conventional rail links (km) in core network -60% (+2.600km)


More ferry links -

Airport - rail interconnections -

FLOWS 2030“towards better infrastructure

management” • Increasing performance of existing

infrastructure through better management and technology.

• ICTs in urban motorways to reduce congestion allowing for faster city access and egress

• satellite guidance allows optimal routing

• revised airport procedures reduce check-in / security times

• integrated EU air space management to increase capacity and reduce delays

• ERTMS systems allow for faster operating rail.

• Liberalisation and increased competition between airports impact on lower flight fares

• Increased comfort conditions and services reliance increase the willingness to travel on rail and air.

-5%

New TEN-T motorways (Baseline) New TEN-T motorways (FLOWS)

FLOWS 2030


New TEN-T railways (Baseline) New TEN-T rail (FLOWS)

FLOWS 2030


ACCESSIBILITYIMPICATIONS OF

SCENARIOS

CITIES SCENARIO

Accessibility increasein % respect toBaseline 2010

REGIONS SCENARIO


FLOWS SCENARIO


In relation to BASELINE 2030

CITIES SCENARIO


REGIONS SCENARIO


FLOWS SCENARIO


Potential Accessibility / Population at different distances as the crow flies for 2030 baseline

Potential accessibility / Population at 300km as the crow flies for baseline 2030

BASELINE


BASELINE

Andreu Ulied // Oriol Biosca MCRIT Milano, 7-8 th February 2013

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Transcript of Andreu Ulied // Oriol Biosca MCRIT Milano, 7-8 th February 2013