20150911 Estación 1086 Irra - La Felisa NESE

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    ANLISIS DE UNA SERIE HISTRICA DE TRNSITO MOPT - INVIAS Y PROYECCIN DEL NEsta!"# 1086S$t%& Irra - La Felisa

    '. S$&!$ (!st"&!a )$

    A+% TPDSC%,%s!!"# A%&% )$ a,!%#$s. T%ta/ )$ )1as. A%&% )$

    A3t%s B3s$s Ca,!%#$s C4P C45 C6C7 C 9C 2C4P 2C45

    1989 353 55% 194 5% 18 40% 141 Ok 204 420 142 188 35 8.3% 17.0%1990 736 64% 471 3% 22 33% 243 Ok 478 758 189 219 26 9.3% 14.7%1991 993 61% 606 7% 70 32% 318 Ok 839 806 265 271 59 12.1% 11.6%1992 1,531 47% 720 8% 122 45% 689 Ok 981 2,069 733 751 290 9.2% 19.3%1993 1,598 50% 799 8% 128 42% 671 Ok 1,216 2,454 536 297 238 10.9% 21.9%

    1994 2,064 50% 1,032 8% 165 42% 867 Ok 1,370 2,666 774 650 646 9.5% 18.5%1995 2,163 67% 1,449 7% 151 26% 562 Ok 1,615 1,854 183 150 164 10.7% 12.2%1996 1,959 49% 960 7% 137 44% 862 Ok 1,304 3,018 774 427 481 9.5% 22.0%1997 2,224 53% 1,179 6% 133 41% 912 Ok 1,692 2,648 784 611 681 10.9% 17.0%1998 2,684 48% 1,288 6% 161 46% 1,235 Ok 2,151 3,237 998 935 1,360 11.4% 17.2%1999 2,105 50% 1,053 7% 147 43% 905 Ok 2,002 2,543 668 578 537 13.6% 17.3%2000 2,925 30% 878 9% 263 61% 1,784 Ok 2,759 4,204 1,568 1,932 2,147 13.5% 20.5%2001 2,089 42% 877 7% 146 51% 1,065 Ok 1,695 2,902 749 925 1,106 11.6% 19.8%2002 2,102 35% 736 9% 189 56% 1,177 Ok 1,961 2,863 771 1,081 1,645 13.3% 19.5%2003 2,055 45% 925 11% 226 44% 904 Ok 1,547 2,151 599 928 960 10.8% 15.0%

    2004 2,968 35% 1,039 10% 297 55% 1,632 Ok 2,312 3,919 869 1,990 2,276 11.1% 18.9%2005 2,877 39% 1,122 10% 288 51% 1,467 Ok 2,492 3,417 953 1,330 2,151 12.4% 17.0%2006 3,509 43% 1,509 9% 316 48% 1,684 Ok 3,015 3,738 1,025 1,399 2,410 12.3% 15.2%2007 3,453 47% 1,623 9% 311 43% 1,485 Ok 2,525 3,425 1,069 1,251 2,256 10.4% 14.2%2008 3,843 47% 1,806 8% 307 45% 1,729 Ok 3,040 3,427 1,214 1,306 3,125 11.3% 12.7%2009 3,135 47% 1,473 8% 251 45% 1,411 Ok 2,592 3,214 873 919 2,199 11.8% 14.6%2010 3,341 39% 1,303 7% 234 54% 1,804 Ok 3,170 3,481 1,478 1,186 3,265 13.6% 14.9%2011 4,029 46% 1,853 7% 282 47% 1,894 Ok 3,589 3,863 1,443 1,190 3,085 12.7% 13.7%

    (1) En ausenia !e un F"# $ara ls &uses se e'$lea 1.00.

    (2) i se !is$ne !e aris F"# $ara la lase *3*4 se e'$lea el 'a+r enre ells.

    (3) e'en!ain !e la /ua e!lia $ara el "ise !e O&ras !e ea&iliain !e ai'ens slis en *arreeras (I#:, 2008).

    2A3t%s

    2B3s$s

    2Ca,!%#$s

    '002C($k

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    0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

    0.00

    200,000.00

    400,000.00

    600,000.00

    800,000.00

    1,000,000.00

    1,200,000.00

    1,400,000.00

    :;< = >?60?.806>'8?0> ;@0.840877?

    R = 0.8>?0?8>?>:;< = 788.760?786644 ;@0.?6740>4R = 0.>00'84''

    EE real %;er (EE real)

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    80 kN DEL ESTNDAR AASHTO PARA PAVIMENTOS FLEXIBLES.

    %

    s. 2 )$/ TPDS. Fat%& )$ )$t$&!%&% $(!3/a& :FDV>?64.3% 0.5% Ok 1.00 0.10 2.80 6.70 5.30 5.90 0.55 1.00 '70?63.9% 0.8% Ok 1.00 0.10 2.80 6.70 5.30 5.90 0.55 1.00 '86'7.0% 2.7% Ok 1.00 2.16 2.16 4.39 4.21 4.42 0.55 1.00 7664702.7% 2.1% Ok 1.00 2.16 2.16 4.39 4.21 4.42 0.55 1.00 68?'7

    4.5% 4.5% Ok 1.00 2.16 2.16 4.39 4.21 4.42 0.55 1.00 70>41.0% 1.1% Ok 1.00 2.16 2.16 4.39 4.21 4.42 0.55 1.00 604473.1% 3.5% Ok 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.55 1.00 ?>>3.9% 4.4% Ok 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.55 1.00 >7785.0% 7.2% Ok 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.55 1.00 84873.9% 3.6% Ok 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.55 1.00 ?0?0>9.4% 10.5% Ok 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.55 1.00 '4?00'6.3% 7.6% Ok 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.55 1.00 '64>7.3% 11.2% Ok 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.55 1.00 844>?6.5% 6.7% = 1.00 2.15 2.15 3.15 4.21 5.31 0.55 1.00 874

    9.6% 11.0% Ok 1.00 2.15 2.15 3.15 4.21 5.31 0.55 1.00 ''0>'76.6% 10.7% Ok 1.00 2.15 2.15 3.15 4.21 5.31 0.55 1.00 >>?66'5.7% 9.8% Ok 1.00 2.15 2.15 3.15 4.21 5.31 0.55 1.00 ''084>'5.2% 9.3% Ok 1.00 1.01 2.72 3.72 4.88 5.23 0.55 1.00 '060'>74.9% 11.6% Ok 1.00 1.01 2.72 3.72 4.88 5.23 0.55 1.00 ''>8'0?4.2% 10.0% Ok 1.00 1.01 2.72 3.72 4.88 5.23 0.55 1.00 >4'65.1% 14.0% Ok 1.00 1.01 2.72 3.72 4.88 5.23 0.55 1.00 '446?864.2% 10.9% Ok 1.00 1.01 2.72 3.72 4.88 5.23 0.55 1.00 '47''7

    Fat%&)!&$!%#a/

    :FD< :602 '.484

    NESE = >?60 K :A+%< @ :0.84'022017 29 1,528,575 192,692 247,031 1,775,6062018 30 1,571,717 195,183 250,225 1,821,9422019 31 1,614,603 197,782 253,557 1,868,1602020 32 1,657,242 200,486 257,023 1,914,2652021 33 1,699,643 203,289 260,616 1,960,260

    2022 34 1,741,815 206,188 264,333 2,006,1482023 35 1,783,765 209,179 268,167 2,051,9322024 36 1,825,502 212,257 272,114 2,097,6152025 37 1,867,031 215,420 276,169 2,143,1992026 38 1,908,359 218,664 280,327 2,188,6862027 39 1,949,494 221,984 284,583 2,234,0772028 40 1,990,440 225,378 288,935 2,279,3752029 41 2,031,203 228,842 293,376 2,324,5792030 42 2,071,789 232,374 297,903 2,369,6922031 43 2,112,202 235,969 302,513 2,414,7152032 44 2,152,447 239,626 307,201 2,459,648

    2033 45 2,192,529 243,341 311,964 2,504,4932034 46 2,232,452 247,113 316,798 2,549,2502035 47 2,272,219 250,937 321,702 2,593,9212036 48 2,311,835 254,813 326,670 2,638,505

    NESE a3,3/a)% W$;!/$ NESE a3,3/a)% &1G!)% :'.7>402 R = 02 R = 02

    5 8.072E@06 9.340E@06 1.204E@07 1.394E@0710 1.720E@07 1.983E@07 2.566E@07 2.958E@0712 2.114E@07 2.434E@07 3.154E@07 3.632E@07

    15 2.735E@07 3.145E@07 4.081E@07 4.692E@0720 3.851E@07 4.420E@07 5.746E@07 6.594E@07

    N%ta E/ a/%& )$ & s$ (a &$)%#)$a)% a 3at&% !&as s!G#!at!as.

    P$&!%)% )$ )!s$+%$st&3t3&a/ :a+%s

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