2 - Resumen de Fundamentales en Mercados Emergentes

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Presentación Ejecutiva: Visión Global de Mercados y Opciones de Inversión en Mercados Internacionales. Oportunidades en Mercados Emergentes Abril, 2015 Lic. Carlos Francisco Gómez Guzmán - Wealth Management Advisor

Transcript of 2 - Resumen de Fundamentales en Mercados Emergentes

Presentación Ejecutiva:Visión Global de Mercados y Opciones de Inversión

en Mercados Internacionales.

Oportunidades en Mercados EmergentesAbril, 2015

Lic. Carlos Francisco Gómez Guzmán - Wealth Management Advisor

Resumen de Fundamentales en Mercados Emergentes

Lic. Carlos Francisco Gómez Guzmán - Wealth Management Advisor

Exposición de los ME a los Commodities y Défict de CC

EM countries that tend to be net commodityexporters with current account deficits haveseen their currencies hurt the most over thepast year.

While domestic factors such as economicpolicy, geopolitics and export characteristicscould contribute to a divergence in performancein EM currencies, EM countries with strongtrade connections are poised to outperform.

Markets with a current account surplus and withexport exposure to the U.S.—and especially tothe U.S. consumer—are expected to see greaterstability.

ME que serán Más Dañados por los Bajos Precios de los Commodities

EM countries that tend to be net commodity exporters withcurrent account deficits have seen their currencies hurt themost over the past year.

Markets with a current account surplus and with exportexposure to the U.S.—and especially to the U.S. consumer—areexpected to see greater stability.

Bajos Precios Commodities y Petróleo crean Oportunidades de Diferenciación

The EM can be split into two groups: commodityimporters and commodity exporters, wherecommodity importers are typically exporters ofmanufactured products.

Commodity-dependent countries may take longerto benefit from the cyclical upswing in developedmarkets an environment where the marginaldemand for more commodities from countries suchas China is still very low and prices remainsubdued.

Along with Russia and Brazil, Chile, South Africa andIndonesia are some of the most commodity-dependentcountries.Commodity-driven gains helped these countriesachieve higher economic growth rates until 2011, butthis source of strength is now fading.

Cambio en la Composición de los Índices de Mercados Emergentes

It is also possible that the magnitude of commodities’impact on EMs will be muted, in part, because theweighting of commodities in EM indices has declined inrecent years. At the peak of the commodity supercycle in 2008,

commodities represented roughly one-third ofemerging markets from a market capitalisationperspective.

Since then, there has been a significant reduction inthe commodity weighting and a correspondingimproving share for domestic sectors, such as theconsumer sectors and financials. As such, thecommodity sectors, which represent a key risk forEMs during periods of dollar strength, now make upless than 20% of EM indices, a level not seen sincethe start of the century.

Correlación en Mercados Emergentes con el US$

En el año 2015 se presentan desafíos para los ME conla desincronización política monetaria global, un dólarfuerte y una caída en los precios de las materiasprimas. No todos los ME son iguales, sin embargo, los que

tienen fuertes fundamentos externos son propensosa obtener mejores resultados.

Estructuralmente, muchos países emergentestodavía están en necesidad de reformas en suspolíticas económicas, la situación fiscal y debenmejorar el entorno empresarial.

Las tendencias a largo plazo para mercadosemergentes siguen siendo favorables.

Por ejemplo: las tendencias demográficas, comoaumento de la urbanización, generaránoportunidades de negocios para las empresasque desarrollan productos que puedan satisfacerlas necesidades locales.

Evolución en los ME a la Estabilidad Económica

A pesar del reciente bajo performance, los MEsiguen siendo una alternativa de inversiónimportante en una cartera de inversión. Sinembargo, es precioso diferenciar y analizar losdiversos mercados emergentes y poner másatención a las condiciones específicas de cadapaís.

Países con debilidad en sus fundamentalesexternos tendrán un bajo performance en 2015debido a que los afectará: 1. La normalización de laFED y otros cambios cíclicos como, 2. La fortalezadel dólar y 3. Los bajos precios de loscommodities.

ME que han implementado reformas políticas yeconómicas estructurales enfrentaránproblemas en el corto plazo pero estaránposicionados para un mejor desempeño futuro. La recuperación de la economía mundial

debe favorecer a la renta variable,especialmente en ME que se benefician de unmejor crecimiento global y estánatractivamente valorados.

Lic. Carlos Francisco Gómez Guzmán- Wealth Management Advisor

Evolución en Regímenes de Tipo de Cambio en ME:de Fijos a Flexibles desde 1995.

Compared with the 1990s, EM countries haveadopted a more flexible exchange-ratesystem, have increased their foreignexchange (FX) reserves and have managedtheir external debt in a more prudentfashion.

These are reflected by the fact that more EMeconomies have successfully reduced theircountries’ short-term debt as a percentageof foreign reserves.

The credit ratings composition of EM debt (EMD)indices, shows that while the composition ofeach index slightly differs,

…all of the EMD indices are predominantlyrated as investment grade…

Reducción de la Vulnerabilidad ante Shocks Externos:Short Term Debt a RMI

More EM economies have successfully reduced their countries’ short-term debt as a percentageof foreign reserves.

Perfil de Rating EMD: Predomina Investment Grade

Mientras la composiciónn decada Indice difiere, todoslos Indices de Deuda deMercados Emergentes:

Tienen predominantementecalificaciones de riesgo

de grado de inversion.

ME tienen Menores Niveles de Deuda y Mejor Nivel deCrecimiento del PIB que los DMs

1) The level of indebtedness ofsovereign countries;

2) The countries’ growth rate; and 3) The countries’ 10-year

government bond yields (asrepresented by the size of thebubble).

What should be clear is that manyEMs carry less debt and exhibitstronger growth than do themajority of the DMs.

El Crecimiento del PIB en ME es casi el Doble queel Crecimiento del PIB de DM (en los últimos 10 años).

A largo plazo la tendencia de urbanización crearáoportunidades de inversión

The old days when the EM asset classrepresented a homogenous play oncommodities and exports have changed.Future EM growth isn’t likely to come onlyfrom exports— either commodities ormanufactured goods—but also fromdomestic demand.

The growing populations, increasingconsumption and productivity gains in EMsshould continue to support economic growth.

Ultimately, demand for services is expected tobenefit sectors such as health care,financials and telecommunications.

Population and urbanisation trends willincrease the need for housing andconsumer goods, including consumerstaples, as well as discretionaryproducts and consumer services suchas finance, health care, education andentertainment.

A largo plazo la tendencia de urbanización crearáoportunidades de inversión

Impactos esperados en Mercados Emergentes antela Normalización de Federal Reserve.

Lic. Carlos Francisco Gómez Guzmán - Wealth Management Advisor

Lic. Carlos Francisco Gómez Guzmán - Wealth Management Advisor

Conclusion: Emerging market assets could also be

threatened by Fed tightening, althoughthe direction of the dollar is likely tobe particularly important indetermining the performance of EMstocks.

However, in all markets the key willbe to distinguish those assetswhich can benefit most fromhealthy growth and those forreasons of valuation or interest-sensitivity look most vulnerable torate increases.

Muchas Gracias por su AtenciónAtentamente, Carlos F. Gómez G. Registered Broker No. 252

www.bolsacr.com

Lic. Carlos Francisco Gómez Guzmán - Wealth Management Advisor